Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

The one survey that uses an internet rather than telephone-based methodology remains resolute in not participating in the Labor poll recovery.

NOTE: Apologies for the present technical problems. I’m afraid I can offer no insight on how long they’re likely to last.

Essential Research this week maintains its apparent determination not to participate in the Labor poll recovery, unless you count a one-point lift in the primary vote to 35%. Otherwise, the Coalition (48%), the Greens (9%) and two-party preferred (55-45) are unchanged. Labor has in fact gained three points on the primary vote over the last five weekly polls, but with the Coalition down only one and rounding perhaps also playing a part, this has only translated into a one-point gain on two-party preferred.

Other findings:

• Racism (71%) and religious intolerance (65%) are rated by most as problems in Australia, but homophobia (50%), sexism (45%) and ageism (44%) not so much. Labor might be perturbed to discover that slightly more think the Liberal Party better at dealing with such matters, although that’s clearly because the question pits it in direction competition with the Greens.

• A question on same-sex marriage finds 55% support and 36% opposition, respectively up one and up three since August.

• The poll also finds 55% considering recent protests unrepresentative of the Muslim community, against 29% who think it demonstrates a tendency to extremism.

• A question on the treatment of the public sector lately in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria, which presumes rather a lot of knowledge on the part of respondents, finds a 23-38 good-bad split for Queensland, 23-34 for New South Wales and 26-25 for Victoria. Thirty-nine per cent anticipate bad treatment under a future Abbott compared compared with 30% for good treatment, while the result for the present government is 37% apiece.

UPDATE (25/9): The weekend’s Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor at parity with the Coalition on two-party preferred using the previous-election preference distribution method, something Labor last managed in late February and early March. The Coalition continues to lead 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is down from 53.5-46.5 on the result published for the two previous weeks. The primary vote has Labor up from 35% to 37.5%, the Coalition also up slightly from 40.5% to 41.5%, and the Greens down from 12% to 10%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,772 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Don’t think we had much of a choice Victoria.
    The swans offered him certainty of contract and playing time.
    I would be happy if he wins Chaz.

  7. Victoria,

    Are you Victoria Rollison‏? If not, could you please ask Mr Bowe for my email addy? Need to get in touch this evening if possible.

  8. [If I could marry anything, I would marry my pillow.]

    I was only thinking the other morning I’m due for a new pillow. If only we had same sex marriage because that would permit me to marry your pillow…polygamy being a natural extension of marriage equality according to St Bernardi. 😀

  10. Another thing that annoys me, is when the MSM cynically questions initiatives like the NDIS or the Dental Health scheme. Where were their cries of “where is the money coming from?” when it comes to COALition “initiatives” like paid maternity leave or cash for Nannies ?

    Or is extragavent Middle class welfare OK for these MSM shrills ?
    As long as the redistribution of Australias wealth go towards the High income earning brackets that they are a part of, thats OK. Should the real battlers, those that need the most aid, start to get a break from the Government, the MSM act as if there has been some great crime against humanity.

    It sucks !!!

  14. Kezza and Victoria,

    We are not playing Cluedo. This is defamation territory. Whatever our personal views may be, this is not appropriate behaviour on a public forum.

  19. confessions,

    I was only thinking the other morning I’m due for a new pillow. If only we had same sex marriage because that would permit me to marry your pillow…polygamy being a natural extension of marriage equality according to St Bernardi.

    Polypilli?

  21. BK

    [The AFL’s mighty website’s live tracker for the Brownlow count failed to get going.]

    They should have got the Crikey techos in. That way we would all have been in for a short night at the Brownlow because they would have started at the end with the winner before scrolling back to the first round.

  25. As the Duke of Wellington said about the boringment competition between Warren Truzzz and the Brownlow medal count.

    [It has been a damn nice thing-the nearest run thing you ever saw]

  30. Boerwar:

    😆

    With regard to the hot water bottle option, I have a dog which serves that purpose. Which I suspect Sen. Bernardi would not approve of.

  31. The Finnigans

    [I think Swamprat is playing Deputy Diogs tonight!

    GG, the Magnificent Two then}

    No idea what I am guilty of… not sure whether to plead guilty or not-guilty.

    I assume it is BAD.

  33. [Not a single live scoreboard of the Brownlow is working. AFL, Fox, Age, Hun.

    Just pathetic.]
    Demitriou should fall on his sword over this!

  38. confessions

    I feel constrained to add a minor technical historical note.

    The Dutch used bolsters to keep the sheets off them in the humid tropics of the Netherlands East Indies. Since most of the early Dutch colonists were men, the locals took to calling bolsters ‘Dutch wives’.

    How contemptuousment of them.

  40. BW,

    That way we would all have been in for a short night at the Brownlow because they would have started at the end with the winner before scrolling back to the first round.

    VERY norty 😀

  46. GG,

    Is that the beach next door to Gallipoli?

    Yes but shhhh, don’t tell the real estate agents. Or Messrs Howard, Abbott, and St Bernardi.

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