Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

The one survey that uses an internet rather than telephone-based methodology remains resolute in not participating in the Labor poll recovery.

NOTE: Apologies for the present technical problems. I’m afraid I can offer no insight on how long they’re likely to last.

Essential Research this week maintains its apparent determination not to participate in the Labor poll recovery, unless you count a one-point lift in the primary vote to 35%. Otherwise, the Coalition (48%), the Greens (9%) and two-party preferred (55-45) are unchanged. Labor has in fact gained three points on the primary vote over the last five weekly polls, but with the Coalition down only one and rounding perhaps also playing a part, this has only translated into a one-point gain on two-party preferred.

Other findings:

• Racism (71%) and religious intolerance (65%) are rated by most as problems in Australia, but homophobia (50%), sexism (45%) and ageism (44%) not so much. Labor might be perturbed to discover that slightly more think the Liberal Party better at dealing with such matters, although that’s clearly because the question pits it in direction competition with the Greens.

• A question on same-sex marriage finds 55% support and 36% opposition, respectively up one and up three since August.

• The poll also finds 55% considering recent protests unrepresentative of the Muslim community, against 29% who think it demonstrates a tendency to extremism.

• A question on the treatment of the public sector lately in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria, which presumes rather a lot of knowledge on the part of respondents, finds a 23-38 good-bad split for Queensland, 23-34 for New South Wales and 26-25 for Victoria. Thirty-nine per cent anticipate bad treatment under a future Abbott compared compared with 30% for good treatment, while the result for the present government is 37% apiece.

UPDATE (25/9): The weekend’s Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor at parity with the Coalition on two-party preferred using the previous-election preference distribution method, something Labor last managed in late February and early March. The Coalition continues to lead 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is down from 53.5-46.5 on the result published for the two previous weeks. The primary vote has Labor up from 35% to 37.5%, the Coalition also up slightly from 40.5% to 41.5%, and the Greens down from 12% to 10%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,772 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Wouldn’t that be a wonderful thing to happen here in the colonies!

    To see the so-called media in this country called to account.

    They thought they were immune in the UK. They think they are immune here in Oz.

    It will only take “ONE” to let the cat out of the bag and it will/could blow up just as spectacularly here too.

    Can’t wait. Who is going to be first to let rip?

  2. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    [ The media must think they are totally immune from any Leveson type inquiry here. ]

    Even a D10 bulldozer couldn’t get the grin off my face if it happened here.

    Night All!

  3. MsAdventure@3699


    I was asking about the ‘show all’ option that was available next to the page numbers before the changes. Having the posts on one long page instead different pages made for quicker catch up reading of the threads and also made it easier for me to find particular posts, subjects or posters.

    Will this feature be coming back?

    We may be able to add this as a feature to the cccp script. Stay tuned.

  4. Yes … an impressive outing from Australia’s Ws … Watson & Warner at the top. Watto got 72 @170 and grabbed 3 wickets with the ball and Warner got 63 @135 (IIRC)

  5. How can Ashby prove that Roxon claims are false,

    Ashby would have to reveal all his contacts wiht the lnp , Pyne, mal brough

    and who is paying his legal fees

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