Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

The one survey that uses an internet rather than telephone-based methodology remains resolute in not participating in the Labor poll recovery.

NOTE: Apologies for the present technical problems. I’m afraid I can offer no insight on how long they’re likely to last.

Essential Research this week maintains its apparent determination not to participate in the Labor poll recovery, unless you count a one-point lift in the primary vote to 35%. Otherwise, the Coalition (48%), the Greens (9%) and two-party preferred (55-45) are unchanged. Labor has in fact gained three points on the primary vote over the last five weekly polls, but with the Coalition down only one and rounding perhaps also playing a part, this has only translated into a one-point gain on two-party preferred.

Other findings:

• Racism (71%) and religious intolerance (65%) are rated by most as problems in Australia, but homophobia (50%), sexism (45%) and ageism (44%) not so much. Labor might be perturbed to discover that slightly more think the Liberal Party better at dealing with such matters, although that’s clearly because the question pits it in direction competition with the Greens.

• A question on same-sex marriage finds 55% support and 36% opposition, respectively up one and up three since August.

• The poll also finds 55% considering recent protests unrepresentative of the Muslim community, against 29% who think it demonstrates a tendency to extremism.

• A question on the treatment of the public sector lately in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria, which presumes rather a lot of knowledge on the part of respondents, finds a 23-38 good-bad split for Queensland, 23-34 for New South Wales and 26-25 for Victoria. Thirty-nine per cent anticipate bad treatment under a future Abbott compared compared with 30% for good treatment, while the result for the present government is 37% apiece.

UPDATE (25/9): The weekend’s Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor at parity with the Coalition on two-party preferred using the previous-election preference distribution method, something Labor last managed in late February and early March. The Coalition continues to lead 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is down from 53.5-46.5 on the result published for the two previous weeks. The primary vote has Labor up from 35% to 37.5%, the Coalition also up slightly from 40.5% to 41.5%, and the Greens down from 12% to 10%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,772 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. I hope we get a US e;lection thread soon. In the meantime, here’s an interesting article.
    [We ‘nuns on the bus’ don’t like Paul Ryan’s idea of Catholic values
    It has been inspirational to go on the road and meet people affected by Ryan’s disturbing, supposedly ‘Catholic’ budget
    Simone Campbell, Friday 28 September 2012 14.40 BST

    My organisation, founded by Catholic sisters 40 years ago, lobbies the US Congress for economic justice with a strongly progressive faith voice. This year, motivated by a disturbing proposal for a new national budget, we decided to try something new for us – a 2,700-mile bus tour through nine states that would connect us directly with people who would suffer if the budget were approved.]

  2. This little black duck,

    [ Scorpio,

    A decent Cabernet Sauvignon with the caneton.

    Starters: lamb backstrap marinated in a tasty virgin oil and served with bush spices.

    Afters: mango and strawberries soaked in balsamic – whipped cream to taste

    Para fin: Stilton and an aged port. ]

    youve won me!

  3. CIS has done some interesting stuff over the years, don’t follow it at the moment. Used to be more academic, less partisan than IPA. Had a genuine interest in public policy and quite influential in public policy circles.. A few nutters though like that twitt Jeremy Sammutt

  4. I don’t know how to link but there is a great article in the AGE by Steve Bracks on the great reforms of the labor government under PM Gillard.

    A few ex labor pollies should read it and use it as a template.

  5. This little black duck’,


    Election 2013 in Canberra? ]

    If I’m still pointing the right way by then, I reckon it might be a great time to organise a get together in the nation’s capital.

    Not sure how the other half would take towards any orgies you might have in mind for then, but could certainly be interested in hitting you up for a spare bed if possible.

    Boerwar might have to get his self organised in a more PB style social construct and join in with some of his PB colleagues that he hasn’t been game to face so far.

    BW, we only have a go at you. We won’t eat you. Line up with Mrs BW and get to know some great people face to face.

    We won’t tell the rest of the PB community the truth about you.
    Whatever that is. Any se3cretrets you have are safe with us.


  6. Turning my attention.

    Not too many hours until the Bloods go for their throats.

    If the weather in SA is anything to go by, it will be a wild, windy, contest of sheer endurance.

  7. [ The historic court one of the Old Bailey was not only filled with press and public on Wednesday, but there were so many defendants they couldn’t fit in the dock: two had to answer charges from the body of the court. Eighteen bewigged barristers—some of the finest criminal lawyers in the country—were also in attendance. Only two defendants, the private investigator Glenn Mulcaire and former managing editor Stuart Kuttner could not make the hearing. ]

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