Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

The one survey that uses an internet rather than telephone-based methodology remains resolute in not participating in the Labor poll recovery.

NOTE: Apologies for the present technical problems. I’m afraid I can offer no insight on how long they’re likely to last.

Essential Research this week maintains its apparent determination not to participate in the Labor poll recovery, unless you count a one-point lift in the primary vote to 35%. Otherwise, the Coalition (48%), the Greens (9%) and two-party preferred (55-45) are unchanged. Labor has in fact gained three points on the primary vote over the last five weekly polls, but with the Coalition down only one and rounding perhaps also playing a part, this has only translated into a one-point gain on two-party preferred.

Other findings:

• Racism (71%) and religious intolerance (65%) are rated by most as problems in Australia, but homophobia (50%), sexism (45%) and ageism (44%) not so much. Labor might be perturbed to discover that slightly more think the Liberal Party better at dealing with such matters, although that’s clearly because the question pits it in direction competition with the Greens.

• A question on same-sex marriage finds 55% support and 36% opposition, respectively up one and up three since August.

• The poll also finds 55% considering recent protests unrepresentative of the Muslim community, against 29% who think it demonstrates a tendency to extremism.

• A question on the treatment of the public sector lately in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria, which presumes rather a lot of knowledge on the part of respondents, finds a 23-38 good-bad split for Queensland, 23-34 for New South Wales and 26-25 for Victoria. Thirty-nine per cent anticipate bad treatment under a future Abbott compared compared with 30% for good treatment, while the result for the present government is 37% apiece.

UPDATE (25/9): The weekend’s Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor at parity with the Coalition on two-party preferred using the previous-election preference distribution method, something Labor last managed in late February and early March. The Coalition continues to lead 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is down from 53.5-46.5 on the result published for the two previous weeks. The primary vote has Labor up from 35% to 37.5%, the Coalition also up slightly from 40.5% to 41.5%, and the Greens down from 12% to 10%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,772 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. WB
    I have the same issue as LBB, post 3645 is at the top of page 1 and 3596 is at the bottom of the page. Also is ‘show all’ coming back?

  2. TLBD,

    [You been taking lessons from our favourite dragon? You are firing.]

    Much as I would like to give Puff PMD the credit, no. It’s my own innate cussedness, which at present is heightened by the prospect of too many assignments to mark 🙁

  3. davidwh,

    What do SMEs do when profit falls? How will they do the fixed costs versus variable costs, assuming they cannot increase income?

  4. fiona,

    You are your own dragon, then.

    I wasn’t claiming you have breached copyright – just pointing out that you are red hot tonight, as far as your comments are concerned.

  5. William B (more specifically, Crikey techies),

    Some people have applauded the most recent at top method on the basis that it means that comment ##50 doesn’t get missed.

    Well, a downside (if that isn’t too much of a contradiction in terms) of the current layout is that – if you are reading “backwards”, you get to the top of the page, go to the “next” page, and quite often miss out on numerous comments, depending on how long it has taken you to read the page you were on. At least the former set-up meant that you could go back and find that 50th comment where it should be – at the end of the page.

    Anyway, enough grumping from me for this evening. Goodnight everybody.

  6. Ducky to properly analyze the dynamics then you have to start with why have SME profits fallen? More often than not its because business has already contracted.

  7. Fiona,

    [Of course you did. Have another mug of cocoa.]

    I will if you make it for me, mum.

    Just for clarity, Buffy M-S has a level credibility with younger generations that can’t be manufactured. I have seen a number of bands offer a homage to ‘codeine’

    ‘its real, lord its real, one more time’…etc love that song

  8. davidwh,

    And how do they react?

    Let us say you have a firm constructing made-to-measure garages and employs fifty. Sales are down.

    How does it react?

  9. WB

    Top of page 74 is post 16 and the bottom of page is post 1.
    Seems the first page in the thread (which is now the highest page number instead of the lowest, as it was previously) seems to be the beginning of the problem.

  10. Mr Squiggle,

    [I will if you make it for me, mum.

    Just for clarity, Buffy M-S has a level credibility with younger generations that can’t be manufactured. I have seen a number of bands offer a homage to ‘codeine’]

    I have been following Ms Saint-Marie for the last 40 plus years – she is a brilliant person at so many levels. But so good to know that she is appreciated by next generations (bit like Deep Purple … 😉 ).

    Make your own cocoa, sweetie (a term of endearment, not an insult): I’m gunna bed.

  11. Ms Adventure & WB,

    [Top of page 74 is post 16 and the bottom of page is post 1.]

    Yes, I’ve been doing some archaeology too, and that seems to be the source of the problem.

    So IF all pages contained only 50 comments, navigation would be a bit easier … but reverting to oldest first would be even better.

    Please pretty please Crikey nerds 🙂

  12. Ms Adventure, are you saying that the page numbering should run 1-50, 51-100, 101-150 etc, and not just the 50 most recent? In any case, if you’re asking when this or any other change might be implemented, the answer is that I don’t know.

  13. Scorpio

    Okay, thank you. And you?

    Echoing, though, a much earlier thought on the circularity of contributors to William’s site. Which is as you will recall, was among the reasons I ceased play.

    It seems somewhat worse, of late.

    To little inclusion. A certain clubby mentality.

  14. Ducky it depends on why sales are down and what capacity the firm has to recover sales of the garages or some new product line . However under the economic dynamics many firms have experienced since 2008 they have likely gone through a number of stages which may have included holding on at reduced margins for a time, reducing costs once it became apparent the downturn was sticky and for many going out of business.

    But back to your original point loss of profits more often than not is an outcome from contraction rather than a cause of contraction although I agree it can be a circular dynamic.

  15. I thought the Centre for the Independent Studies was apolitical but when I went to their wed=bsite I got this.
    [The Centre for Independent Studies is the leading independent public policy ‘think tank’ within Australasia. The CIS is actively engaged in supporting a market economy and a free society under limited government where individuals can prosper and fully develop their talents.]
    It has all the hard-right buzzwords.

  16. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydney-news/foreign-minister-bob-carr-fires-warning-shot-on-weapons/story-e6freuzi-1226483733594
    [Foreign Minister Bob Carr fires warning shot on weapons
    Simon Benson
    The Daily Telegraph
    September 29, 2012 12:00AM

    BOB Carr will push for international sanctions against countries that allow guns to fall into the hands of Australian bikie gangs and organised crime syndicates.

    The Foreign Minister yesterday revealed a crackdown on the soaring global trade in illegal weapons would be a priority for Australia should it be elected to a seat on the UN Security Council.

    In an interview with The Daily Telegraph on the final day of tense UN negotiations in New York, Mr Carr revealed that he would pursue an international agreement on an Arms Trade Treaty which would punish the countries of origin for weapons that end up in the hands of criminals, such as bikies and Middle Eastern organised crime networks in Sydney.]

  17. although I agree it can be a circular dynamic.

    And in there, sadly, lies the problem.

    What the EBU and the countries in that zone are doing is staggeringly beyond belief.

    I think Bernacke has it right: grow the economy and stuff inflation for the time being.

  18. crikey whitey,

    [ Echoing, though, a much earlier thought on the circularity of contributors to William’s site. Which is as you will recall, was among the reasons I ceased play.
    It seems somewhat worse, of late.
    To little inclusion. A certain clubby mentality. ]

    I’m as good as could be expected under the circumstances.(ie getting older all the time and hating what that does to one!)

    PB hasn’t changed much. Some regulars drift away and others take their place (sometimes with a different attitude towards things) and life here carries on regardless.

    If Kevin Rudd didn’t exist, some of them would have to invent him in their particular vision, good or bad.

    Some have a love for Julia Gillard that boarders on the obsessive. (will be our next Aussie saint if they have their way) and with the odd flame war, much the same as always.

  19. Interesting and thanks, Leroy.

    The Foreign Minister yesterday revealed a crackdown on the soaring global trade in illegal weapons would be a priority for Australia should it be elected to a seat on the UN Security Council.

    I have not studied the composition of the countries from which we would hope to gain a vote.

    Presume Bob Carr has, however.

  20. This little black duck,

    [ fiona@3677
    TLBD,
    Do you want to know my recipe for caneton à la rouennaise?

    Come up and see me sometime: I have a couple of good reds to go with it. ]

    Noorty Ducky. What about those lovely whites you have got stashed away down stairs also! 😉

  21. TLBD,

    [Come up and see me sometime: I have a couple of good reds to go with it.]

    Only if you have some etchings.

    Hey, have we been doing speed dating Friday without ShowsOn’s supervision. If so, we are in deep trouble.

  22. Teh Media has orgasmed Ms Gillard so many tests.

    For what she has accomplished so far she will be adjudged a good ‘un.

    If the PM “passes the test” of the 2013 election I trow that she will be adjudged one of the greats.

  23. crikey whitey – I expect that’s part of it, but it looks to me the interview is aimed right at Sydney Laura Norder voters. Showing them the relevance of an international body to their own patch. A good move I thought.

  24. Puff,

    Given that:

    [Many CIS scholars are self-described classical liberals. As classical liberalism is often critical of government intervention in the economy and personal life, the Centre does not accept government funding out of principle. Instead, the CIS is funded by private sector donations from individuals, companies and charitable trusts.

    CIS scholars are often in conflict with other think tanks and welfare bodies, particularly those it considers centrist and left-wing, such as the Per Capita, The Australia Institute, the Social Policy Research Centre at the University of New South Wales, the Society of St Vincent de Paul, The Smith Family and the Australian Council of Social Service.]

    what else could one expect?

  25. Scorpio,

    A decent Cabernet Sauvignon with the caneton.

    Starters: lamb backstrap marinated in a tasty virgin oil and served with bush spices.

    Afters: mango and strawberries soaked in balsamic – whipped cream to taste

    Para fin: Stilton and an aged port.

  26. WB

    I was asking about the ‘show all’ option that was available next to the page numbers before the changes. Having the posts on one long page instead different pages made for quicker catch up reading of the threads and also made it easier for me to find particular posts, subjects or posters.

    Will this feature be coming back?

  27. Leroy

    Don’t know if Laura Norder is a person, place, animal, mineral.

    Whichever it may be, would laurernordians be paying attention?

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