Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

The one survey that uses an internet rather than telephone-based methodology remains resolute in not participating in the Labor poll recovery.

NOTE: Apologies for the present technical problems. I’m afraid I can offer no insight on how long they’re likely to last.

Essential Research this week maintains its apparent determination not to participate in the Labor poll recovery, unless you count a one-point lift in the primary vote to 35%. Otherwise, the Coalition (48%), the Greens (9%) and two-party preferred (55-45) are unchanged. Labor has in fact gained three points on the primary vote over the last five weekly polls, but with the Coalition down only one and rounding perhaps also playing a part, this has only translated into a one-point gain on two-party preferred.

Other findings:

• Racism (71%) and religious intolerance (65%) are rated by most as problems in Australia, but homophobia (50%), sexism (45%) and ageism (44%) not so much. Labor might be perturbed to discover that slightly more think the Liberal Party better at dealing with such matters, although that’s clearly because the question pits it in direction competition with the Greens.

• A question on same-sex marriage finds 55% support and 36% opposition, respectively up one and up three since August.

• The poll also finds 55% considering recent protests unrepresentative of the Muslim community, against 29% who think it demonstrates a tendency to extremism.

• A question on the treatment of the public sector lately in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria, which presumes rather a lot of knowledge on the part of respondents, finds a 23-38 good-bad split for Queensland, 23-34 for New South Wales and 26-25 for Victoria. Thirty-nine per cent anticipate bad treatment under a future Abbott compared compared with 30% for good treatment, while the result for the present government is 37% apiece.

UPDATE (25/9): The weekend’s Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor at parity with the Coalition on two-party preferred using the previous-election preference distribution method, something Labor last managed in late February and early March. The Coalition continues to lead 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is down from 53.5-46.5 on the result published for the two previous weeks. The primary vote has Labor up from 35% to 37.5%, the Coalition also up slightly from 40.5% to 41.5%, and the Greens down from 12% to 10%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,772 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

Comments Page 6 of 76
1 … 5 6 7 … 76

  1. [So does a pot plant, a poodle and poof make a family under the proposed Equal Marriage concept?]

    Oh dear, Senator Bernardi is posting here!!!

  3. William,

    Speaking of site changes, the shadow image of yourself seems to be someone with a full mane. Have you been “Yeah Yeahing” with Warney and his mates?

  4. [Is it the exiting MLC’s party at the point of resignation or election? Anybody know the law here?]

    If an MP resigns or is sacked isn’t there just a by-election?

    I thought it was just Senators that were replaced.

  5. I guess that I wouldn’t be the only Poll-Bludger that is starting to get really pissed-off at the spin the COALition is putting on the question of Deficits and the MSM total refusal to call them on their(the COALitions) outright bullshyte.

    We expect meaningful analysis from the Media, not sycophantic cooing

  9. [So does a pot plant, a poodle and poof make a family under the proposed Equal Marriage concept?]

    Gay people have the same ability and rights to form a family as a geranium?

    Is that right?

  10. Carey Moore,
    Although he’s from the “right” he’s a nice man!
    Works for Jack Snelling but sort of came to public notice when he started to take on “Micheal Brander” and national action during the 90’s

  11. Bemused was banned because he invited William to ban him, after William asked him repeatedly to stop being a pain in the arse. Wouldn’t have happened if Bemused hadn’t called his bluff. I’m glad it’s just temporary, but there really isn’t anything more to read into it than that.

  12. [Carey Moore,
    Although he’s from the “right” he’s a nice man!
    Works for Jack Snelling but sort of came to public notice when he started to take on “Micheal Brander” and national action during the 90′s]

    Right doesn’t bother me. Plenty of good MPs from the Right. I am more concerned about whether or not he is from the hard fundy Right…

  13. William Bowe,

    [ Bemused wasn’t kicked for his views, but simply because his querulous reaction to the redesign was getting on my nerves. I’ll let him out pretty soon. ]

    Always knew you were a bit of a softy at heart William. 😉

  19. [Zoophilia, as in ever done it, is about 5% for men and a lot less for women. Incest is about 10%.]

    diog, who are you trying to impress?

  22. [So what is it called if a man marries a herd of horses; female, male and geldings?]

    Is this serious? satirical? or an expression of weird homophobic people on here?

  25. Finns,

    I notice that Diogs always quotes in finger and toe numbers.

    A sure sign that he is making them up.

    I agree with Abraham Lincoln that, “You can only believe half of what you read on the Internet”.

  26. That Twitter stoush with Hockey is still going on. He’s claiming he never said the Coalition would sack 20,000 public servants. What he actually did was not disagree with Uhlmann when Uhlmann asked if he’d do that.

    It’s as plain as day that Hockey was just letting his mouth flap when he said the Coalition could make cuts to the budget. He wanted to give the impression that they had some really good ideas, when in fact they were just making any old hollow claim and hoping to get away with it. So whatever Uhlmann suggested he just left unchallenged. This is known as talking out both sides of your mouth.

    So what Hockey wants to do now – he’s seen the wind blowing in the other direction – is to disavow all the specifics regarding their cuts, while keeping the general claim that they can achieve those cuts. Which is known as talking out of your backside.

    This is the template for all Liberal policy commitments:

    Lib: We are going to do x.
    Q: How?
    Lib: We’re not going to tell you.

    ‘x’ is anything that sounds like it might be popular out there.

  30. [I agree with Abraham Lincoln that, “You can only believe half of what you read on the Internet”.]

    1. He was a member of the Tea Party, hardly reliable.

    2. He was United States of American.

    3. Where is the Australian you can quote about the internet from the 18th century?????

  32. Vic
    [Mick Collims

    Who is your pick for the Brownlow?]

    Hopefully the Brownlow will be one by Trent Cotching. It would be some sort of poetic justice for what was a frustrating season.
    The Cotch will make a worthy recipient of the number 17 Guernsey.
    On another point, The mighty Tiges beat both of this years Grand Finalists this season, that leaves me with great hope for next year

  38. [I agree with Abraham Lincoln that, “You can only believe half of what you read on the Internet”.]

    GG, also on Internet, nobody knows you are a Diog

  44. If I could marry anything, I would marry my pillow. I seriously love it, and I cannot live without it. Plus I sleep with it every night. 🙂

  46. Lincoln is credited with the most famous tweet in US history:

    [Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.]

  47. swamprat,

    oops 19th Century

    You are sooooo lucky with that quick recover: I was about to chastise you unmercifully.

    (Signed) Madam Lash

Comments Page 6 of 76
1 … 5 6 7 … 76

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *