Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

The one survey that uses an internet rather than telephone-based methodology remains resolute in not participating in the Labor poll recovery.

NOTE: Apologies for the present technical problems. I’m afraid I can offer no insight on how long they’re likely to last.

Essential Research this week maintains its apparent determination not to participate in the Labor poll recovery, unless you count a one-point lift in the primary vote to 35%. Otherwise, the Coalition (48%), the Greens (9%) and two-party preferred (55-45) are unchanged. Labor has in fact gained three points on the primary vote over the last five weekly polls, but with the Coalition down only one and rounding perhaps also playing a part, this has only translated into a one-point gain on two-party preferred.

Other findings:

• Racism (71%) and religious intolerance (65%) are rated by most as problems in Australia, but homophobia (50%), sexism (45%) and ageism (44%) not so much. Labor might be perturbed to discover that slightly more think the Liberal Party better at dealing with such matters, although that’s clearly because the question pits it in direction competition with the Greens.

• A question on same-sex marriage finds 55% support and 36% opposition, respectively up one and up three since August.

• The poll also finds 55% considering recent protests unrepresentative of the Muslim community, against 29% who think it demonstrates a tendency to extremism.

• A question on the treatment of the public sector lately in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria, which presumes rather a lot of knowledge on the part of respondents, finds a 23-38 good-bad split for Queensland, 23-34 for New South Wales and 26-25 for Victoria. Thirty-nine per cent anticipate bad treatment under a future Abbott compared compared with 30% for good treatment, while the result for the present government is 37% apiece.

UPDATE (25/9): The weekend’s Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor at parity with the Coalition on two-party preferred using the previous-election preference distribution method, something Labor last managed in late February and early March. The Coalition continues to lead 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is down from 53.5-46.5 on the result published for the two previous weeks. The primary vote has Labor up from 35% to 37.5%, the Coalition also up slightly from 40.5% to 41.5%, and the Greens down from 12% to 10%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,772 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. [The fact that more Australians think the LIbs are better to deal with homophobia says a lot about what? That Australian is the land of ignorant morons and hence conservative voters OR that polls are pretty worthless.]

    If you hated your fellow Australians a little less you might be better at convincing them to vote for the ALP at future elections.

    ….just saying.

    The reason the Liberal party is winning that issue is that they are ahead 55-45. If you asked which was the best party to ensure the Martians won against the Alpha Centaurans in their war on the planet Upuranus you would probably find the Liberal party winning that too…

  2. [I haven’t been on this site for a week or so, and noticed that ‘bemused’ has been booted.]

    He asked and it would seem he received.

  3. [Don’t know how the Liberals are considered the best party to combat racism and homophobia by so many.]
    Easy peasy. Under the Liberals non white people and gays will be ignored so problem solved . 🙁

  4. It would be ideal if Finnegan were to be replaced by somebody more progressive but I daresay, factional games being as they are, he would just be replaced by an ideological equivalent.

    Then again, the hard rightists (the fundies) have been slightly less influential these days, with quite a few in the party realising there are votes to be had with being the party of Don Dunstan rather than the party of Don Farrell.

  5. Mod Lib

    [To my knowledge the best estimates are about 10% of the population are gay,]

    It depends on definition. About 18% report homosexual attraction or behaviour but a lot less, about 4%, report having had homosexual sex in the last few years

  6. feeney

    bemused was booted because he dared William to take action.

    And, no-one is allowed to discuss bannings on this site unless they want to suffer the same fate.

    All other objections are to be addressed to the moderator, privately.

    I suggest you do the same.

  7. Oh dear Mr Lib;
    ‘Turnbull has “it” doesn’t he BB?’

    What, you mean like he had ‘it’ when he had a go and being head prefect before?

    Mod Lib loves Malcolm.

  8. Diogs,

    You seem to know as much about these things as Cory Bernardi.

    What about some stats on bestiality, incest and polymorphic sexual activity?

  9. Mod Lib @ 203

    [If you hated your fellow Australians a little less you might be better at convincing them to vote for the ALP at future elections.]

    It was a question. No need to play the recent right wing “democracy” meme.

    [The reason the Liberal party is winning that issue is that they are ahead 55-45. If you asked which was the best party to ensure the Martians won against the Alpha Centaurans in their war on the planet Upuranus you would probably find the Liberal party winning that too…]

    Which you have answered; the polls are meaningless on this question because the population is too ignorant.

  10. Mr Bowe,

    I’ll let him out pretty soon.

    I suggest that you feed the prisoner a diet rich in carbohydrates in the meantime – apparently it soothes the nerves.

    (bemused, if we could work out how to send you a virtual file in a virtual cake without William’s noticing, we would.)

    … phew, hope William didn’t notice …

  11. [The reason the Liberal party is winning that issue is that they are ahead 55-45.]

    Actually, I suggest the reason is that respondents were allowed to choose the Greens at the expense of Labor.

  12. [In your dreams]

    The 55-45 is referring to the findings of the Essential poll whose results we were discussing.

    Its not in my dreams, its in their report (not to mention the title of this thread).

  13. Diogenes,

    I’m pretty sure the rules say you have to go back to the previous election to select a replacement. if an individual was elected on a Labor ticket, then a Labor person rightfully replaces them.

  14. [William Bowe
    Posted Monday, September 24, 2012 at 8:06 pm | PERMALINK
    Thank you, Zoomster. I can’t exactly remember myself.]

    William:

    Happy birth-general period of time then!

    🙂

  15. [William is very decisive for a Libran.]

    I am said to be a Libran and sadly totally indecisive.

    It is of course meaningless as I was born in the southern hemisphere as a 7th generation Australian. The northern hemisphere constellations and reversed seasons can hardly have little ‘effect’ on me!!!

  16. [Im not sure Labor can choose the replacement as Finnigans isn’t in the Labor Party any more.]

    That’s a point I hadn’t considered. Does anybody know how that works? Is it the exiting MLC’s party at the point of resignation or election? Anybody know the law here?

  17. If Bemused gets an amnesty for being an obnoxious whingeing bore, then Frank should get one too. At least he was never boring.

  18. [Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, September 24, 2012 at 8:11 pm | Permalink

    Its not in my dreams, its in their report (not to mention the title of this thread).]

    Point taken; and a valid observation; when the sample is as skewed as it obviously is, the results for any question is pretty much useless.

    I belong to the set of people that answered their polls, but don’t get them anymore.

  19. [Tung Ngo preselected for 2014 election!]

    Well, in that case, assuming the ALP get to choose the replacement, then that would be the logical nomination…

    Anybody know what he’s like?

  20. Diogenes

    [Zoophilia, as in ever done it, is about 5% for men and a lot less for women. Incest is about 10%.]

    I find the figure for bestiality hard to believe. Where do they come from?

  21. Senator Bob Collins (paedophilia & child porn charges)
    MP Milton Orkopolous (conviction and jail for paedophilia)
    and now South Australian MP Finnegan (child porn charges)

    What is with politicians and child pornography/paedophilia?

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