NOTE: Apologies for the present technical problems. I’m afraid I can offer no insight on how long they’re likely to last.
Essential Research this week maintains its apparent determination not to participate in the Labor poll recovery, unless you count a one-point lift in the primary vote to 35%. Otherwise, the Coalition (48%), the Greens (9%) and two-party preferred (55-45) are unchanged. Labor has in fact gained three points on the primary vote over the last five weekly polls, but with the Coalition down only one and rounding perhaps also playing a part, this has only translated into a one-point gain on two-party preferred.
Other findings:
• Racism (71%) and religious intolerance (65%) are rated by most as problems in Australia, but homophobia (50%), sexism (45%) and ageism (44%) not so much. Labor might be perturbed to discover that slightly more think the Liberal Party better at dealing with such matters, although that’s clearly because the question pits it in direction competition with the Greens.
• A question on same-sex marriage finds 55% support and 36% opposition, respectively up one and up three since August.
• The poll also finds 55% considering recent protests unrepresentative of the Muslim community, against 29% who think it demonstrates a tendency to extremism.
• A question on the treatment of the public sector lately in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria, which presumes rather a lot of knowledge on the part of respondents, finds a 23-38 good-bad split for Queensland, 23-34 for New South Wales and 26-25 for Victoria. Thirty-nine per cent anticipate bad treatment under a future Abbott compared compared with 30% for good treatment, while the result for the present government is 37% apiece.
UPDATE (25/9): The weekend’s Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor at parity with the Coalition on two-party preferred using the previous-election preference distribution method, something Labor last managed in late February and early March. The Coalition continues to lead 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is down from 53.5-46.5 on the result published for the two previous weeks. The primary vote has Labor up from 35% to 37.5%, the Coalition also up slightly from 40.5% to 41.5%, and the Greens down from 12% to 10%.
Now that the boxheaded Cormann has said that the Coalition’s policies will be costed by the PBO before the election the pressure should be continually put on to Abbott and Sloppy to confirm it.
[Turnbull explained that. What he meant was exactly what he said: “demolish the PLAN”, not the actual poles, wires and pits. ]
If he needs something to demolish it with, Abbott would know the whereabouts of a wrecking ball that’s currently surplus to requirements. There’s a python a bit short of work too.
[Now that the boxheaded Cormann has said that the Coalition’s policies will be costed by the PBO before the election the pressure should be continually put on to Abbott and Sloppy to confirm it.]
They will use the PBO outside of an election period, when they can keep the results secret. They will not use them during an election when the PBO has to publish its costings.
Aguirre
So Tony has an underworked python…
BB re comment #107. It sounds like 2GB have a serious case of cultural cringe. Do they really expect that our Leaders are unworthy of attending the UN government heads meeting ( or whatever its called), and that instead they are only worthy of dealing with low-level representatives of our Neighbors ?
Abbott’s 2GB interview still not on his site. Things must be crook when he has to hide soft interviews at GB.
lizzie
Sorry, I’d forgotten about the power flickering – such a common occurrence!
Have had so many probs trying to log-in, gave up.
But have been able to read, albeit “backwards”
So good to know that Crikey’s working on restoring newest last. I blame Puff for that suggestion
[BB re comment #107. It sounds like 2GB have a serious case of cultural cringe. Do they really expect that our Leaders are unworthy of attending the UN government heads meeting ( or whatever its called), and that instead they are only worthy of dealing with low-level representatives of our Neighbors ?]
Whatever a Labor leader is doing, they should be doing something else, according to 2GB… the more humiliating and trivial, the better.
I heard one caller complaining that Gillard was proposing billions on the NDIS, when he couldn’t even get the potholes in the street outside his house fixed.
He thought potholes in the street were a Federal government problem, to be addressed before anything else. The more trivial the problem the more urgent it is to fix it, rather than waste time and money on “difficult” stuff like caring for the disabled on a national basis.
The shock jock (can’t remember who) gravely agreed that his potholes not being fixed was indeed a serious failure of the Gillard government.
They don’t care WHAT the issue is… the crazier the logic, the more they agree that it’s the WRONG project.
I’ve heard shock jocks on 2GB agreeing with callers who think we’re spending:
(a) too much
(b) too little
on the NBN. Any that think the spending’s “just right” get laughed off the show, or hung up on. EVERYONE knows the NBN is just a big rort.
[William Bowe
Posted Monday, September 24, 2012 at 6:14 pm | PERMALINK
Looks like we’re stuck with reversed comments, certainly for the time being. The light green will however be attended to.]
I vote for blue.
It would be good if the meat of the page (the comments bits) could expand across more of the screen than the 50% it currently occupies (explorer on a macbook). A third of my screen on both the left and the right, is blank and then there is another column on the right full of sickly green headings such as “External links”, “Categories”, “Archives” etc etc which could occupy a lot less space.
Other than that, I am learning to like it…
Well, at least the SBY gaffe was prominent on ABC TV News tonight.
On 2GB, it had been airbrushed into history by 4pm. Thedemand to travel to Indonesia” was still on the 2GB news, but any mention of SBY had been omitted.
Oh…..and the login asks for your email, when what it actually should be asking for is your screenname (that is what I put in and it works)
Zoomster:
Yep. It’s not as squeezy as he thought it would be.
zoom
Did you meet up with any Melburnite PBers during your sojourn to the big smoke??
Meant to advise Fiona that you would be in Melb over the weekend (couldn’t log in) although I knew she was busy.
Tony Abbott shouldnt be swanning around with serious journos. He should just stick to his #Fanbois like Jones, Hadley, Bolty etc
William, I know we are probably stuck with reverse order comments – so be it. It would be good if the page numbers could be sorted though so that we can identify what page particular comments are on. They are in the reverse order. I feel like I am reading a book backwards, but it is a dynamic book with new chapters being added at the start stuffing up all other chapter numbers – it is counter intuitive.
Essential:
As well as the interesting finding of another poll not showing much move to the ALP, the interesting thing in the Essential this week is the 4% who have experienced Homophobia.
I guess that would include heterosexual people who have witnessed homophobia, but the question actually asks
“Do you personally experience one or more of the following forms of intolerance?”
…which could be taken to mean that the prevalence of homosexuality is at least 4% of the population. To my knowledge the best estimates are about 10% of the population are gay, which would mean 40% of them experience homophobia, which sounds possible.
The 10% gay figure is pretty rubbery though, to my knowledge, so its interesting to see 4% in this Essential poll.
blackburnpseph @ 126
[A question on the Essential Research methodology.
How much churn is there in the respondents? How often will the same person be surveyed.
In the telephone polls, the chance of being resurveyed quickly are miniscule but is this the case with Essential?]
As I have raised for discussion in this forum recently, The Essential Report uses an online panel called Yoursource, which claims to have 100,000 panelists, although only a few months ago that number was about 60,000, which is a fairly small universe to draw their sample from as it has to be restricted to those on their panel age 18+.
A rolling fortnightly sample of 1,990 respondents is going to be difficult to maintain with any real degree of randomness, as their response rates (which typically would be somewhere around 20% on an online panel with relatively modest incentives) mean that to get near 2,000 respondents, they’d have to send out e-mail invitations to about 10,000 panel members every fortnight, or about 10%+ of the total panel membership, or less, really, as the universe is already filtered on the 18+ metric.
It just isn’t a sound methodology to be going back to the same people so regularly as they have to do given the modest size of the panel membership.
In my view this is why we don’t see anything but a very gradual change in the Essential results – they seem to survey the same people too frequently, and therefore haven’t picked up the volatility that has been detected in other telephone-based polling methodologies.
Essential is now the outlier, not only in their exclusive use of the online methodology, but also now in their results.
kezza
No, it wasn’t going to work out because of Fiona’s surprise party thingy (we had a facebook chat).
As it was, one of the worst weekends of my life (bar deaths of near family members).
We turned up earlier than expected at my sister in law’s. We have always come with our dogs, and we have always let our dogs out for a run for a kilometre or so before her house (quiet country lane…) They bounce cheerfully just ahead of the car and it means they’re nice and quiet when we get there.
As we turned the corner into her drive we saw, to our horror, a flock of twenty or so fluffy white chickens (they’ve always been in the shed).
Of course the dogs did what dogs do, with us running around like mad things trying to abate the chaos and feathers flying anywhere…
Anyway, our brother in law (a fairly recent acquisition) came screaming out of the house, yelling at us to f^^ off, etc.
So we helped them collect all the chooks and then we did. (We had driven 2 hours to get there).
Got to Melbourne, to another sister in law’s, a day earlier than planned and I came down with gastro, so we came home again the next day.
So I didn’t get to go and see Napoleon at the NGV, and probably won’t (sob. I’m very fond of the Napoleon-Australian connection, and have an excellent book about it), we have a major family crisis to sort out, and I can’t eat anything other than dry toast.
Clearly Essential are the only pollsters willing to tell us the truth 👿
Why doesnt Abbott sue Ramjan for defamation. Surely you cant impugn the character of a prominent leader like that?
[In my view this is why we don’t see anything but a very gradual change in the Essential results – they seem to survey the same people too frequently, and therefore haven’t picked up the volatility that has been detected in other telephone-based polling methodologies.]
The fact that there is only a gradual change in Essential, and they “haven’t picked up the volatility that has been detected” in other polls doesn’t make Essential wrong.
There has been a move to the ALP in the other polls, but only from around 55-45 to around 53-47…I would be surprised if the 50-50 from Newspoll was replicated too often.
…although if the truth is 53-47, there will be a few 50-50s thrown in there every now and then!
Have a rest ftom?politics
Watch tje fashion show on 7
[Andrew
Posted Monday, September 24, 2012 at 7:31 pm | PERMALINK
Why doesnt Abbott sue Ramjan for defamation. Surely you cant impugn the character of a prominent leader like that?]
The same reason Gillard hasn’t sued for defamation for the Slater & Gordon stuff….any discussion of the issue is bad news for them until they resign from politics.
zoomster,
Oh dear, what a miserable time – and gastro to boot, so to speak. I’m not surprised that I didn’t hear from you.
Eh bien, OH has promised me not to turn 70 again, so next time, perhaps.
Take care, and I hope all the problems and ills sort themselves out soon.
Good evening all.
Abbott apparently back on safe territory on 2GB today dog-whistling about the PM “meeting Africans in New York” instead of meeting the Indonesian president in Jakarta. Presumably 2GB listeners become agitated at the prospect of our Prime Ministers meeting Africans, or something.
But amazingly he reportedly said this three times when it was obvious the govt was going to point out that at these general UN meetings most world leaders are in attendance, including SBY!
I thought if ever there was an obvious illustration of the hollow Abbott strategy, that’s it. Just a series of one-liners with absolutely no substance.
Andrew
I thought truth was a defence.
She has witnesses and a legal beagle for a husband.
zoom
OMG, what a dogstophe!
Hope you don’t mind that I laughed, but you tell a disaster so well.
And hope you’re feeling a lot better now, tummy-wise.
Girlish giggling from Leigh Sales at Turnbull in the studio.
No interruptions, lots of smiles.
I thought Abbott choice of “talking to Africans” in his gibe about Gillard was truly horrible. What a disgrace of a man.
Now that Kroger has fired up the Ramjan issue, I want my Barcelona tonight interview with her
[Bushfire Bill
Posted Monday, September 24, 2012 at 7:41 pm | PERMALINK
Girlish giggling from Leigh Sales at Turnbull in the studio.
No interruptions, lots of smiles.]
Turnbull has “it” doesn’t he BB?
Must have you guys shaking in your boots!
I am finding the intolerance questions interesting. Don’t know how the Liberals are considered the best party to combat racism and homophobia by so many. Unsurprised at the high “Don’t know” though.
Turnbull saying wtte “Everything they can do, we can do better.” Sales trying to pin him down 🙁
[Turnbull has “it” doesn’t he BB?
Must have you guys shaking in your boots!]
Yeah real smart to say he will not cost his broadbean policies.
[Carey Moore
Posted Monday, September 24, 2012 at 7:43 pm | PERMALINK
I am finding the intolerance questions interesting. Don’t know how the Liberals are considered the best party to combat racism and homophobia by so many. Unsurprised at the high “Don’t know” though.]
Yes, I had noticed the Liberal advantage on the “Best party to deal with the intolerance” as well! How they win that title when they voted as a block against gay marriage whereas at least some of the ALP voted for it is fascinating.
I think many of those “party political” questions merely reflect the current TPP polling and nothing else. The 4% figure is separate though, and very interesting!
Directly from the Essential Report for this week is this information about the YourSource panel and the methodology they use:
“Your Source has a self-managed consumer online panel of over 100,000 members. The majority of panel members have been recruited using off line methodologies, effectively ruling out concerns associated with online self-selection. Your Source has validation methods in place that prevent panelist over use and ensure member authenticity. Your Source randomly selects 18+ males and females (with the aim of targeting 50/50 males/females) from its Australia wide panel. An invitation is sent out to approximately 7000 – 8000 of their panel members. The response rate varies each week, but usually delivers 1000+ responses. The Your Source online omnibus is live from the Wednesday night of each week and closed on the following Sunday. Incentives are offered to participants in the form of points.”
I’m informed by people who attended that the Liberals’ crime forum here (featuring front bencher Michael Keenan) yielded many crime complaints, including from people who had experienced home invasions yet when they rang police to get help, had the phone ring out with no answer.
According to my source, the
participantsLiberal rent-a-crowd tried to blame this Bad Labor Government, until someone pointed out that policing was a state govt responsibility, and guess what, it’s been a state Liberal govt for the last 4.5 years.Oops. 😆
Well, Leigh must have been playing footsies with Malcolm beneath the table. She was coo-ing like a pigeon.
Weatherill is writing to Finnigans to ask him to resign as an MP. Who would take his place in the Upper House given he has been suspended from the ALP?
I imagine Weatherill will get the same reply I get when I ask The Finnigans to resign from PB for the good of humanity.
Good analogy by Sales, suggesting Turnbulls NBN plan being a lemon
[I imagine Weatherill will get the same reply I get when I ask The Finnigans to resign from PB for the good of humanity.]
R U trying to take my “Fav Dick#ead” title?
MOd Lib @ 184
[Yes, I had noticed the Liberal advantage on the “Best party to deal with the intolerance” as well! How they win that title when they voted as a block against gay marriage whereas at least some of the ALP voted for it is fascinating.]
Boy oh boy is that Liberal Spin and convenient understatement…… You fail to mention they (Libs) have opposed every move to equality for gay people in all areas: superannuation treatment, inheritance, standing as next-of-kin. etc etc.
The fact that more Australians think the LIbs are better to deal with homophobia says a lot about what? That Australian is the land of ignorant morons and hence conservative voters OR that polls are pretty worthless.
[I thought Abbott choice of “talking to Africans” in his gibe about Gillard was truly horrible. What a disgrace of a man.]
It’s precisely why I liken today’s Liberal party with the regressive, populist, racist Tea Party types. Abbott has taken the cheap dog-whistling of Howard and ramped it up several notches.
I don’t think he did himself any favours with that interview today.
PvO talking about Turnbull’s i.v.
[Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
I know Turnbull isn’t coming back to the leadership, I’m not angling at that. Just saying he talks straight and with nuance… ]
Diog
The slob will not be hard to replace. Let’s hope that, unlike Finnegan, the new MLC will be an intelligent, secular representative.
The other thing that Essential and Yoursource (the online panel used by Essential) haven’t made plain in their background detail about their methodology is how many of the 100,000 panel members are ‘active’, that is, are engaged enough to be interested in the survey process and respond regularly when invited.
The quoting of the 100,000 panel member number may be misleading if a substantial part of their panel are not active, that is, don’t respond regularly to invitations to surveys. If that were the case, then that diminishes the universe of sample available to them in any given week even further.
hey fiona
check this out
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-24/husband-still-holds-hope-missing-wife-jill-meagher/4277078/?site=melbourne&ref=m21
at 2.50
That Leigh Sales interview of Malcolm Turnbull was just pathetic. Battering eyelids at four paces. Absolute rubbish. Nothing of any substance challenged.
fiona
and check out what he says at 3.00.
Spooky.
[Don’t know how the Liberals are considered the best party to combat racism and homophobia by so many.]
Perhaps people simply interpret coalition policy as barring anyone of racial or sexual diversity from being in Australia from the outset, so that the problem isn’t even there to begin with.
I haven’t been on this site for a week or so, and noticed that ‘bemused’ has been booted.
Can someone explain what has happened, as I feel a lot of his comments are to the point eventhough I disagree with some of the things he often says.
All views should be heard, I feel.