Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

The one survey that uses an internet rather than telephone-based methodology remains resolute in not participating in the Labor poll recovery.

NOTE: Apologies for the present technical problems. I’m afraid I can offer no insight on how long they’re likely to last.

Essential Research this week maintains its apparent determination not to participate in the Labor poll recovery, unless you count a one-point lift in the primary vote to 35%. Otherwise, the Coalition (48%), the Greens (9%) and two-party preferred (55-45) are unchanged. Labor has in fact gained three points on the primary vote over the last five weekly polls, but with the Coalition down only one and rounding perhaps also playing a part, this has only translated into a one-point gain on two-party preferred.

Other findings:

• Racism (71%) and religious intolerance (65%) are rated by most as problems in Australia, but homophobia (50%), sexism (45%) and ageism (44%) not so much. Labor might be perturbed to discover that slightly more think the Liberal Party better at dealing with such matters, although that’s clearly because the question pits it in direction competition with the Greens.

• A question on same-sex marriage finds 55% support and 36% opposition, respectively up one and up three since August.

• The poll also finds 55% considering recent protests unrepresentative of the Muslim community, against 29% who think it demonstrates a tendency to extremism.

• A question on the treatment of the public sector lately in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria, which presumes rather a lot of knowledge on the part of respondents, finds a 23-38 good-bad split for Queensland, 23-34 for New South Wales and 26-25 for Victoria. Thirty-nine per cent anticipate bad treatment under a future Abbott compared compared with 30% for good treatment, while the result for the present government is 37% apiece.

UPDATE (25/9): The weekend’s Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor at parity with the Coalition on two-party preferred using the previous-election preference distribution method, something Labor last managed in late February and early March. The Coalition continues to lead 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is down from 53.5-46.5 on the result published for the two previous weeks. The primary vote has Labor up from 35% to 37.5%, the Coalition also up slightly from 40.5% to 41.5%, and the Greens down from 12% to 10%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,772 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Dedalus, see the “methodology” page at the back of one of their PDF reports.

    [The current poll had a sample size of 1992. The previous poll had a much lesser sample size (about 1100 from memory).]

    1992 would have been for the voting intention question, which combines the results of two previous week’s polling. The 1100 would have been the remainder of the poll, accounting for that week’s set of attitudinal questions. The respective samples are about 2000 and 1000 every time.

  2. It appears that Swan has paid $40 odd billion of GST to the States in advance – these appear in this years budget.

    It looks to me that he could pay the States just $440 million in 2012-13. Newman and Timmy were screaming about this when they released their budget.

  3. frednk’s link. Bernard Keane:
    [It depends which poll you look at, of course, but no one in Canberra took seriously Newspoll’s 50-50 poll last week.]
    Really? Really??

    The coalition looked like a bunch of headless chooks; they were doing a great impression of taking it seriously. What was that quote from Liberal MP – not hitting the panic button, but checking if it was still there.

  4. From memory EMC uses the Yougov panel that was set up before Yougov pulled the plug in Australia. I think Tim Gartrell (sp) was going to run it.

    I may be wrong – but if this is the case EMC is using a sample that has not been refreshed.

  5. 2GB this afternoon…

    Between the 3pm and the 4pm news the story went that Abbott said Gillard should be seeing SBY in Jakarta, but that (ha, ha)SBY was in New York with Gillard already.

    Then Malcolm Turnbull got on after 3pm and said that what Abbott REALLY meant was that Gillard should have gone to Jakarta instead of New York and talked with “senior officials” about boat people, not necessarily SBY himself.

    That’s right, while all other world leaders were meeting in New York, Gillard should have been pow-wowing with some deputy head of a department somewhere, buried inside government offices in Jakarta, trying to nut out a “turn back the boats” deal that would solve People Smuggling forever.

    By 4pm the 2GB news had it that Abbott said she should have cancelled New York and gone “to Indonesia” (no mention of SBY or “senior officials” to deal with the “border security crisis”.

    Inter alia, Turnbull also said, ib=n the following tonew if not the exact words,

    [ “Oh no, no, no… Tony was never going to pull down the NBN. Heh, heh, some people have been very mischievous in suggesting that… no, no, no… all he wants to do is provide the same capabilities at one tenth of the price.”]

    Well, at least it shows that the punters want the NBN. 2GB seems to have given up the “It’s not necessary” and “Fast broadband is only for the Asian hordes” and “It’s only for porn downloads anyway” lines in the past couple of months.

  6. BB

    The Nationals must be nervous. If the NBN cannot be bashed in the big city with 2GB listeners they have no hope out in the bush. This means every time in the bush the NBN came up on the national scene and Abbott was there with his tear it up mantra, the Nationals lost votes.

    Ah music to the ears 👿

  7. Schnappi

    Im not sure about this vigorously defending the charges when his lawyer was trying to get the charges thrown out based on the kids not being identified and so not being able to prove they are under 14.

  8. Don’t worry about the polls. The Fox frocumentary for Brownlow night gives far better insights into the psychological state of the nation.

    We’re stuffed.

  9. Bernard Keane notes that Abbott’s popularity among Labor voters has fallen sharply, and among Coalition voter Gillard’s popularity has improved somewhat.

    He says that this means Gillard still hasn’t cracked the tough nut of Coalition voters, the nut she needs to crack.

    Give it a rest Bernard! Of COURSE Labor voters will be the first to signal extra dislike of Abbott, just as Coalition voters will be cautious, and perhaps stubborn, holding onto their resentment of Gillard (although slackening off a little).

    It ain’t rocket science.

  10. BB,
    As you probably know, that is going on all day at 2GB. I have found that John Laws on 2CH has mellowed and is a little bit more moderate.

  11. BB
    Forget the mention of head lice causing itching. Today’s remarks from Abbott, Talcum, Kroger et al are giving me a serious case of nausea. Much more of this ‘what Tony really meant to say was….’ and ‘Of course we support an NBN but’… and ‘Barbara Ramjan is a lying Trot….’crap and I’ll have to head for the emergency department for some Maxalon.

  12. Kroger displays his utter intellectual and philisophical bankruptcy with his nauseating embrace of Sparticists to defend an event that never happened from a time so long past it no longer matters reported by a soure that warrants no regard.

    What a measley and pitiful attempt at dilluting an issue he clearly identifies as a serious threat. The man’s brain is shot – not worth feeding.

  13. By the way, while waiting in my Doctor’s waiting room I pulled out my Mobile Phone (not I Phone) I found that Poll Bludger was much easier to load and read with the new format, so it seems that it works OK with Android and I am using just an LG mobile.
    Also getting used to the new upside down comments.

  14. On Barbara Ramjan – They will keep picking at this in an attempt to neutralise the story now.

    It would be a disaster for them if they went to an election campaign with Tones as leader and Ramjam came out in a TV interview with 2 or 3 credible witnesses to support her.

  15. [Hmmm, shame for Truffles that people remember only too well what he was tasked with by Abbott.]
    It’s all getting to be too much like Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four for my liking. Yesterday the Fib’s Ministry of Truth expected us to believe that the NBN was a bad idea and had to be demolished ASAP. Today we are told to think it’s absolutely a great idea and can be done by an Abbott government for a few squillion dollars less than Labor is spending. Just don’t expect Talcum to provide any costings for a couple of years, he’s too busy working out how many millions he’ll make from investing in overseas broadband networks.

    What are we going to be asked to believe next?

  16. William Bowe

    [Looks like we’re stuck with reversed comments, certainly for the time being.]
    Good news about the green but what about the return of this message on a fairly regular basis. I thought the new server set up banished this message ?

    [Guru Meditation:

    XID: 1771176563

    Varnish cache server]

  17. A question on the Essential Research methodology.

    How much churn is there in the respondents? How often will the same person be surveyed.

    In the telephone polls, the chance of being resurveyed quickly are miniscule but is this the case with Essential?

  18. [Hmmm, shame for Truffles that people remember only too well what he was tasked with by Abbott.

    Abbott picks Turnbull to ‘demolish’ Gillard’s broadband plan

    ]

    Turnbull explained that. What he meant was exactly what he said: “demolish the PLAN”, not the actual poles, wires and pits.

  19. Terrible news for the world but if Australian farmers have even an average season it will be great for Australia. Not to mention for Labor’s election chances.

    [World on track for record food prices ‘within a year’ due to US drought
    Brace yourself for some painful “agflation”. That is the shorthand for agricultural commodity inflation, otherwise known as rising food prices
    They are being driven upwards by the climb in grain and oilseed prices as US crops weather the country’s worst drought since 1936, while the farming belts of Russia and South America suffer through similar water shortages. ]

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/9561143/World-on-track-for-record-food-prices-within-a-year-due-to-US-drought.html

  20. Just like when Turnbull invested in an Australian Email service (ozemail) didn’t make him an Internet or email expert: see Gretchgate.
    His investment in a Spanish NBN service still does not make him an NBN expert: just see any of his columns that he writes.

  21. [In the telephone polls, the chance of being resurveyed quickly are miniscule but is this the case with Essential?]

    Given they have a pool of about 100,000 each respondent could expect to be surveyed about once every two years. But if you were in a hard to reach demographic it has to be much more frequent.

  22. Bushfire Bill

    [Turnbull explained that. What he meant was exactly what he said: “demolish the PLAN”, not the actual poles, wires and pits.]
    I thought he might but people remember the “demolish the NBN” bit. Slicing and dicing definitions and meanings won’t cut it.

  23. Does Hockey know?

    [Lyndal Curits Mathias Cormann (Shad. Asst. Treas) tells #capitalhill the Coalition will have policies costed by the Parliamentary Budget office]

  24. Poroti @ 128

    Higher prices to Oz farmers will also impact on domestic supermarket prices … so get ready for another round of the ‘cost of living’ bogey.

  25. [But if you were in a hard to reach demographic it has to be much more frequent.]

    Older people who will do it over the internet are probably scarce.

  26. [They are being driven upwards by the climb in grain and oilseed prices as US crops weather the country’s worst drought since 1936, while the farming belts of Russia and South America suffer through similar water shortages.]

    Just the right time to keep a $22 a tonne levy in place eh Julie and Tone?

  27. Ru @ 130

    Thank you. It would be interestting to know if they have a smaller pool in a certain demographic. If it is in the over 65 or 75, it may explain the stationary nature of their poll.

  28. Looks like we’re stuck with reversed comments

    I hope it’s on the list of things to be addressed eventually – I would be quite unhappy to just grin and bear it indefinitely.

  29. [Emma Alberici ‏@albericie
    Greg Sheridan “salivates” over “best friend” Tony Abbott has temerity to accuse others of bias FACT Mr Abbott thought Marr’s essay was fair ]

    Even Amma Alberici is unhappy with Sheridan.

  30. [Does Hockey know? Lyndal Curits Mathias Cormann (Shad. Asst. Treas) tells #capitalhill the Coalition will have policies costed by the Parliamentary Budget office]

    Plus NBN unable to cost comments. such a disciplined team

  31. Jackol
    [Looks like we’re stuck with reversed comments
    I hope it’s on the list of things to be addressed eventually – I would be quite unhappy to just grin and bear it indefinitely.]
    I agree 100%. When there are long posts, such as Bushfire, it’s a pain to scroll up then down; and scrolling to the top of the post to find out who the author is before reading – This is not qa whinge. It’s a criticism.

  32. BB @ 111

    For Crying Out Loud!

    It’s Bernard Keane, Possum Comitatus, Robert Manne. Richo, and completely forgotten that other chap, et al who have been braying against PM Gillard.

    They’re Ruddistas writ large.

    They’re still clinging on to hope against hope, and refusing to acknowledge, just as the msm group-think refuses to admit,the writing on the wall.

    In the end, it’s the left you have to be worried about. The stinking right’s already gone for Abbott.

  33. It has taken me hours to get into Crikey, so I had assumed lots of improvements would be evident.

    I have to say I really like the main pages, but getting into the Blogs is a pain.

  34. blackburnpseph

    [Poroti @ 128

    Higher prices to Oz farmers will also impact on domestic supermarket prices … so get ready for another round of the ‘cost of living’ bogey]
    There is that but balanced against that is farmers having a lot more money money. This means all sorts of rural small businesses will also be in “rich pastures” and a handy boost to government income to boot. The government can at least point to international prices being the cause and the fact it is beyond their control. Who would argue we should pay farmers less for their crops ? Certainly not the Nationals or even the Katterwaulers.

  35. The COALalition’s NBCPBP – National Bloody Carrier Pigeon Broadband Plan will have 6 pigeons housed in boxes on the side of your house for emergencies and just in case your copper wires cannot handle the traffic in the future.All fully costed by your local deli.
    After Labor win in August 2013 by a bigger margin , they should remove the Queens head on all coins and put the head of the PM on them and just sit back and watch the coalition heads explode. Would be fun to watch.

  36. [ Who would argue we should pay farmers less for their crops ? Certainly not the Nationals or even the Katterwaulers.]

    The National Party want to keep the levy for the Wheat Export mob in place. Time to blame Barnaby for $50 loaves of bread. 😉

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