Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

The one survey that uses an internet rather than telephone-based methodology remains resolute in not participating in the Labor poll recovery.

NOTE: Apologies for the present technical problems. I’m afraid I can offer no insight on how long they’re likely to last.

Essential Research this week maintains its apparent determination not to participate in the Labor poll recovery, unless you count a one-point lift in the primary vote to 35%. Otherwise, the Coalition (48%), the Greens (9%) and two-party preferred (55-45) are unchanged. Labor has in fact gained three points on the primary vote over the last five weekly polls, but with the Coalition down only one and rounding perhaps also playing a part, this has only translated into a one-point gain on two-party preferred.

Other findings:

• Racism (71%) and religious intolerance (65%) are rated by most as problems in Australia, but homophobia (50%), sexism (45%) and ageism (44%) not so much. Labor might be perturbed to discover that slightly more think the Liberal Party better at dealing with such matters, although that’s clearly because the question pits it in direction competition with the Greens.

• A question on same-sex marriage finds 55% support and 36% opposition, respectively up one and up three since August.

• The poll also finds 55% considering recent protests unrepresentative of the Muslim community, against 29% who think it demonstrates a tendency to extremism.

• A question on the treatment of the public sector lately in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria, which presumes rather a lot of knowledge on the part of respondents, finds a 23-38 good-bad split for Queensland, 23-34 for New South Wales and 26-25 for Victoria. Thirty-nine per cent anticipate bad treatment under a future Abbott compared compared with 30% for good treatment, while the result for the present government is 37% apiece.

UPDATE (25/9): The weekend’s Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor at parity with the Coalition on two-party preferred using the previous-election preference distribution method, something Labor last managed in late February and early March. The Coalition continues to lead 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences, which is down from 53.5-46.5 on the result published for the two previous weeks. The primary vote has Labor up from 35% to 37.5%, the Coalition also up slightly from 40.5% to 41.5%, and the Greens down from 12% to 10%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,772 thoughts on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. On a slightly more sober note, as of 11:30am today, Webdiary – the political blog started 12 years ago by Margo Kingston, formerly of the SMH, ceased operation.

    Some PBers, like me, were once Webdiarists – and I salute my fellow comrades, as I salute Margo and her brainchild.

    Ave et vale.

  2. Look, it’s as plain as the nose on your face that Hockey and the rest of the Coalition Hit Squad were coming at the option of sacking 20,000 Public Servants from the perspective they always have, of the ‘Old Paradigm’, so to speak.

    It worked a treat for Howard to demonise Public Servants as perenially-Labor-voting ne’er-do-wells that wouldn’t work in an iron lung. Which was all well and good back in the day when it sort of was the case.

    Then Howard himself came along and wrought massive changes to the Public Service which saw it politicised to an extent it had never been before, and he put a lot of them on Individual Contracts, which were Performance-based. Or, in other words, if they didn’t perform to his satisfaction, they got the boot and didn’t have their contracts renewed.

    So the upshot of all that was, by the end of the Howard era, the Public Service was no longer the reliable whipping boy for the Coalition that it used to be.

    Except no one seems to have told Hockey and Abbott that, and so they proposed their Public Service pogrom, expecting to get the same sort of gratitude from the Great Unwashed Masses who aren’t Public Servants and ARE Tradies and other sorts of Cashed-Up-Bogans, that they used to under Howard.

    Now it’s different. Now those Public Servants are seen as real people, with mortgages to pay, and kids to bring up and school.

    Just like everyone else.

    And the lived experience of Public Service cuts is playing out in real time, for once, before the next federal election, via the Coalition State governments. Instead of being just some sort of amorphous concept.

    So it’s no longer possible for Joe Hockey and Tony Abbott to play act at being Mr Nastypants to the Labor-voting Public Servants.

    Because not all of them are uniformly Labor voters any more. Howard saw to that, remember guys?

    Hence Hockey is now running away from the schtick, as fast as his fat little legs can carry him. And Abbott is leaving him to carry the can. As per usual for the spineless political jellyback & craven opportunist that is Tony Abbott.

    So, now that the axe is being re-sheathed, and the Coalition can’t fill their $70 Billion Budget Hole with Public Servants, the government should get on the front foot and say to the Coalition, “Where’s the money coming from?” 🙂

  3. C@tmomma
    20,000 will not do the trick. It will have to be closer to 40,000. They will do some straight out and do a big transfer to the states of public servants, functions but without funding.

    It will be how rauchundspiegelment.

  4. The Dutch might have had strange ways with bolsters but at least we did not flog them off to the highest bidder:

    In an essentially uncritical USAmericanphil blog its great to see old-fashioned anlo-phobe posts.

  5. fiona

    On a slightly more sober note, as of 11:30am today, Webdiary – the political blog started 12 years ago by Margo Kingston, formerly of the SMH, ceased operation

    Margot was da best . How right was this ?

    Now Abbott lies about lying, copies Howard’s Manildra

    By Margo Kingston
    August 27, 2003
    Tony Abbott is fighting for his political skin, but he still can’t lie straight in bed.

    http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/08/27/1061663853365.html

  6. On a slightly more sober note, as of 11:30am today, Webdiary – the political blog started 12 years ago by Margo Kingston, formerly of the SMH, ceased operation.

    Some PBers, like me, were once Webdiarists – and I salute my fellow comrades, as I salute Margo and her brainchild.

    Fiona, i remember it well. please note who did the killing off

    Tuesday, August 23, 2005 at 06:12 PM

    A note to our readers We have been talking with Margo about her blog for some time. She had some technology issues which we were resolving. But it was increasingly clear to us that Margo aspired to develop her blog totally independently of any major media organisation.
    She decided to terminate her contract with us and branch out on her own. We thank her for her work over the years and wish her well.

    The smh.com.au site will continue to develop new blogs which will provide opportunities for readers to express their views and communicate with each other, in addition to our strong breaking news coverage.

    – Mark Scott, Editor-in-Chief, Metropolitan, Regional and Community Newspapers

  7. I’ve noticed people are still complaining about the reverse ordering of the comments. I have written a work-around but I haven’t received any feedback (except for Bemused who is currently sin-binned).

    If anyone else would like to try it and let me know how it goes that would be good.

    To use the Crikey Clear Comment Preview script, install in order:
    Firefox
    Greasemonkey
    cccp
    or:
    Google Chrome
    Tampermonkey (Optional)
    cccp
    Also try Upside Down Miss Jane for those who prefer bottom posting:UDMJ

  8. You get the feeling that Hockey’s LOTO credentials (such as they are) are going to be blown out of the water long before he has a chance to challenge. His own lack of attention to detail – in what is a fairly high-profile and detail-intensive portfolio – is getting exposed more and more. He’s one or two messy pressers away from being a public laughing stock.

  9. I checked up on the work that contained the %s for bestiality and incest and found this on the author’s work at wiki:
    “Miletski’s study has never been published in any peer-reviewed journal’

  10. poroti,

    Margot was da best

    No disagreement from moi!

    finny,

    please note who did the killing off

    I had completely forgotten that – thank you for the reminder. Also, kind dolphin, thank you again for all the support you gave me in the post-Margo years. I will never forget your many kindnesses.

  11. Musrum – I’m using it with UDMJ on Firefox, and it’s working fine. The only issue is that it’s playing havcoc with my STFU. But as no-one’s officially using that (or at least talking about it) I guess it doesn’t matter. If I want to read the comments I’m blocking, I just turn it off temporarily.

  12. Boerwar,
    If 40000 Public Servants are to be devolved to the States, how are they to afford them? Especially as they are already sacking their own State Public Servants. Unless, of course, Abbott is going to give federal funds to the States to take them on. Which sort of defeats the purpose of it, doesn’t it?

  13. Greensborough Growler,
    If your pillow disappears, just think back to that dream where you ate a giant marshmellow!

    I don’t eat my marriage partners. 😀

  14. I’ll have another go. A rousing round of “I’m walking backwards for Christmas across the Irish Sea” in your best Spike Milligan voice, please. For Pollbludger and more pointedly, the LOTO. He’s cactus.

  15. After Tim Wilson of #IPA, Kelly O’Dwyer has to be the next most annoying person #qanda

    Finns
    Aren’t you forgetting someone?
    (Hint: NE Victoria)

  16. C@tmomma

    Boerwar,
    If 40000 Public Servants are to be devolved to the States, how are they to afford them

    Ah, you have discovered Mr Hockey’s secret. They will transfer people and functions but not budgets.

  17. Newspoll – South Australia

    Two Party Preferred: ALP 43 (-5) LIB 57 (+5)
    Primary Votes: ALP 28 (-6) LIB 43 (+3) GRN 11 (0)
    Weatherill: Approve 42 (-5) Disapprove 33 (+10)
    Redmond: Approve 40 (-3) Disapprove 36 (+2)
    Preferred Premier: Weatherill 40 (-6) Redmond 27 (+4)

  18. Newspoll – South Australia

    Two Party Preferred: ALP 43 (-5) LIB 57 (+5)
    Primary Votes: ALP 28 (-6) LIB 43 (+3) GRN 11 (0)
    Weatherill: Approve 42 (-5) Disapprove 33 (+10)
    Redmond: Approve 40 (-3) Disapprove 36 (+2)
    Preferred Premier: Weatherill 40 (-6) Redmond 27 (+4)

    Ouch.

    Olympic Dam announcement starting to bite.

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