Morgan phone poll: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Bonner

A new phone poll corroborates Newspoll. Or does it?

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Roy Morgan has published a poll which, so far as the headline figure goes, is extremely interesting in that it a) is consistent with the Newspoll result, and b) was conducted by phone, and thus cannot be anticipated to suffer the pro-Labor bias typical of Morgan’s face-to-face polling. However, the headline figure to which I refer is from respondent-allocated preferences, which for so long have been flowing to Labor in confoundingly weak proportions in Morgan’s face-to-face polls. In this poll however they have flowed to Labor inordinately strongly. If using the measure which allocates preferences according to how they flowed at the previous election, which I and all other pollsters recommended, the Coalition has a somewhat more comfortable lead of 52.5-47.5. The primary vote results are striking in being high for both major parties: 39.5% for Labor and 47% for the Coalition, against 8% for the Greens and a very low 5.5% for others.

The poll was evidently conducted from Monday to Thursday (despite some confusion in Morgan’s heading) from a sample of 668, with a margin of error of about 3.8%. Other questions were also posed by this poll, so stay tuned for more detail.

NOTE: As you may have noticed, Crikey has a new look and its implementation is characteristically being accompanied by teething problems – most seriously the failure of comments thread pagination, which has caused the previous 5000-plus comments thread to not work terribly well. Presumably this one should be okay though, for at least as long as it remains fairly short.

UPDATE: Further findings from the Morgan poll are that Julia Gillard recorded a fairly solid approval rating of 40%, with disapproval of 51%, which represents changes of 3% and 6% since Morgan last posed the question in January. Tony Abbott meanwhile is respectively down four to 32% and up four to 60%. On the question of better prime minister, Gillard has remained steady on 45% while Abbott has dropped four points to 37%. Abbott has also lost further ground to Malcolm Turnbull on the question of best leader for the Liberal Party, the former down three to 19% and the latter up five to 42%. That leaves Abbott nearly level with Joe Hockey, who is down one to 18%. Julia Gillard continues to trail Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader, with Gillard up three to 22% and Rudd up one to 34%.

And not forgetting …

Seat of the week: Bonner

To commemorate Labor’s improved position in the polls, Seat of the Week takes its first excursion to the Coalition side of the electoral pendulum.

The Brisbane electorate of Bonner extends south-westwards from the bayside Wynnum-Manly area to Mount Gravatt. It was created at the 2004 election, and has remarkably been left unchanged by the two redistributions conducted since. The seat is also remarkable for having changed hands with each election, starting with the Liberals’ success in overhauling a 1.9% notional margin in 2004. The defeated Labor candidate was Con Sciacca, a Keating government minister who held Bowman from 1987 to 1996 and again from 1998 to 2004. Sciacca took the safer option when the transfer of Wynnum-Manly to the new seat left Bowman with a notional Liberal margin of 3.1%, but he was unable to withstand an adverse swing of 2.4%. Labor appeared to be especially hampered by the loss of Kevin Rudd’s personal vote in those areas of the electorate which had previously been in Griffith.

The inaugural member for Bonner thus became Ross Vasta, a staffer to Senator Brett Mason, former restaurant owner, and the son of noted Brisbane barrister and Bjelke-Petersen era Supreme Court justice Angelo Vasta. Vasta’s main source of publicity in his one term in parliament was his involvement in the scandal surrounding misuse of electoral printing allowances, for which he was cleared by the Director of Public Prosecutions shortly before the 2007 election. He was always going to have his work cut out defending the Coalition’s most marginal Queensland seat at the 2007 election, and duly fell victim to a 5.2% swing which compared favourably with a statewide swing of 7.5%.

Bonner was then held for a term by Kerry Rea, previously a Brisbane councillor representing a ward that included the area around Mount Gravatt. Vasta meanwhile returned to his old job with Brett Mason and unsuccessfully contested the Wynnum-Manly ward for the Liberals at the 2008 Brisbane council election. The newly constituted Liberal National Party then gave him the chance to recover his old seat, which did not seem a likely proposition in the political climate of the time. While that had certainly changed by the time of the 2010 election, Vasta’s victory on the back of an emphatic 7.4% swing was a serious disappointment for Labor, making Bonner the “safest” of its nine notionally held Queensland seats to fall to the LNP.

Labor’s preselected candidate for the next election is Laura Fraser Hardy, an associate with Hall Payne Lawyers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,563 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Bonner”

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  1. [The sharpness of the Avatars is not all that good either in some instances.]

    Of course I designed my avatar to stand out. Bright primary colors, a strong composition and a saucy look.

    Than again, I’m an Art School graduate. We can’t all be one of those.

    (Sigh).

  2. Guytur

    [mick
    Show him 2 graphs.

    21 years of US economy
    21 years of Australia economy.

    Say there is you there is us.]

    He was trying the same argument about two weeks ago. He posted an article, unlinked, from what appeared to be from a tea-party site as it invoked “Joe-the-plumber” from a previous republican campaign. It was pointed out that he was speaking nonsense then, by posting an article on US debt that came from the Economist magazine. He is now trying the same argument again, either he has a problem with his memory retention, or he is a complete dolt.
    Now he

  5. William

    Like the new look of the site, once the comments box is at the bottom and pagination works again it will be a winner.

    BTW, thanks for all the articles you post, this site keeps me entertained for hours and at the same time teaches me so much.
    Cheers

  6. How come I have a comments box on Firefox (at the top)and no comment box on Chrome when other bludgers have it the other way round?

    I don’t know, but I’ll pass it on.

    Also is it possible for links to open in a new tab instead of the current page instead of having to remember to click the scroll wheel to open in a new tab?

    I wouldn’t have thought so. Unless I’m misunderstanding you, that’s not how websites generally go about it.

  12. [Hey whingers: instead of showing a disgraceful sense of entitlement, how about saying thanks to PollBludger for the wonderful service he provides?]

    There are conservatives on both side of politics. We just don’t like to admit it.

    A wise man once said: “You can get used to anything… even the Carbon Tax, even the New-Look Crikey.”

    Give it a day or so and the kerfuffle will die down.

    I mean, Tony Abbott changed his whole “look” didn’t he? In the last week?

    He went from a thug who punches walls to a caring family man who helps blind people live their dreams.

    Look how that worked for him.

  14. I can see the comment box on Firefox where CCCP is not installed but not on Chrome, where it is. My guess is that CCCP isn’t compatible with the new theme. Will try disabling it in Chrome and see what happens.

  15. William,

    You didn’t manage to change Deblonay’s format! 😉 👿 😀

    [MBOX 123 RE WILLAM’S EFORTS
    __________
    RE MR BOWE
    YES I AGREE WE OWE WILLIAM A VOTE OF THANKS FOR ALL HIS EFFORTS
    THANKS WILLIAM]

  16. Hi Crikey Whitey,
    Hay you wll be the Mayor next!

    It was very sad about the lost opportunity to establish an ongoing sustainable opportunity for the indigenous folk. But the little runt will get his comeuppance.

    He may still win next time but with a massive reduction of seats. As Joe6pack said earlier all of the major regional hubs in N Qld will toss his team out in droves.

  19. “@AFL: 3 qtr-time: @sydneyswans 9.14 (68) lead @Collingwood_FC 5.8 (38). Dane Swan’s late goal could spark the Pies #AFLSwansPies”

    bh
    yes just don’t count chickens b4 they are hatched 🙂

  24. [How do you reason with these “tea-party” morons ?]

    You don’t. You put them in a chaff bag and shoot them.

    They LOVE guns, so it’s OK.

  25. @CNN: RT @SanjayGuptaCNN: cure for #cancer close says MD Anderson. Plan to “drastically reduce” cases & deaths. Exclusive details all day @CNN

  26. The US Election,…a sea change on the way
    ________________
    A Counterpunch writer,sees Obama ushering in a sea change in US Middle East policies as he seeks to end the dominantion of the US Jewish Lobby and the intrusion of Netanyahu into US politics

    Obama is said to dislike the Israel PM intensely and fears he might launch a war with Iran to distract the US voters

    The polls show Americans are deeply worried by wars in the M East and only 38% would support help to Israel if it launches a war against Iran

    Netanyahu has not only angered Obbama but alienated many US voters
    The whole climate in the M East is changing …and Israel has been been so alone with a PM deeply disliked by many
    http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/09/19/a-sea-change-in-us-israeli-relations/in the US and Europe …and hated in much of the 3rd world
    http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/09/19/a-sea-change-in-us-israeli-relations/

  28. Having spent a half an hour or so reading through the comments in the new format, I’m warming to the changes.

    It’s been a good night – a Morgan poll in accord with Newspoll, Manly smashed by the Storm, and Collingwood behind by 20 with about 10 minutes left in the AFL.

  29. Further to post 176 re M East
    _____________________________
    This week Netanyahu has been in the US to address a major zionist conference

    He sought a meeting with Obama but was told the President was too busy with the campaign and couldn’t see him
    Snub snub snub
    A blow to the Israeli PM’s prestige…the first such snub ever deliver in the US to such a PM from Israel
    The times they are a changing !!!

  31. Swan makes it to Huffington Post Nothing new here; but hey, it IS here! 🙂 Australian minister warns of Republican ‘crazies’

    [“Let’s be blunt and acknowledge the biggest threat to the world’s biggest economy are the cranks and crazies that have taken over a part of the Republican Party,” Swan said.

    He said “the extreme right tea party wing” of the Republican Party had held the national interest hostage during last year’s debate over the U.S. borrowing limit despite President Barack Obama’s “goodwill and strong efforts.”]

  35. What a night. Sydney Swans in Sydney win AFL preliminary final.
    Melbourne Storm in Melbourne when NRL preliminary final.
    Sydney Swans will travel to Melbourne to play GF, and Melbourne Storm will travel to Sydney to play in NRL GF. Some kind of symmetry.

  36. What the?????

    What happened to my page?

    Slightly too much green, comment box too high, page numbers not working….but other than that probably live-with-able.

  43. I’m going to throw up if the MP gets off because of this.

    [LAWYERS for a politician facing aggravated child pornography charges have argued the State Government’s own legislation renders a conviction impossible.

    Michael Abbott QC today told Magistrate Simon Smart that his client had no case to answer on seven aggravated charges of obtaining access to child pornography.

    Mr Abbott said prosecutors were unable to identify any victims in relation to the charges against the MP and that only two of the 14 charges involved actually accessing pornography.

    “If you don’t have a victim, you cannot show or prove that the victim was under the age of 14 years at the time of the offence, then you have no offence – our argument is as simple as that,” Mr Abbott said.]

  45. Paddy2

    It is difficult to think that our Crows could triumph.

    But, amazing, after all that crap, years of wasted nonsense, I forebear to mention the coach, what a zoom!

    I

  46. A good week – the polls trending the right way for Labor, Swannie gets a mention in Huffington Post about the crazy Tea Party mob and the Swannies are in the GF.

  48. [Craig Emerson Worth watching #lateline where Liberal Party was given clear & fair opportunity to set out its economic policy for Australia @albericie]

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