Galaxy: 58-42 to Coalition in New South Wales

James J reports the Daily Telegraph will carry results tomorrow from a Galaxy poll of state voting intention in New South Wales, showing the Coalition maintaining a resounding 58-42 two-party preferred lead despite having come off the boil somewhat compared the March 2011 election result of 64.2-35.8. The poll has the Coalition on 47% of the primary vote (compared with 51.1% at the election), Labor with 31% (25.6%) and the Greens with 11% (10.3%). The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 814, for a margin of error of about 3.5%. There were “lots of attitudinal questions” conducted with the poll, so stay tuned.

UPDATE: The full tables are here; most of the supplementary questions are a bit nebulous for my taste, and have accordingly turned up fairly indecisive results. The one exception involved respondents being asked who was the best Premier of the last 25 years, which had Bob Carr leading a crowded field of eight with 32%, with Nick Greiner second on 16%, and Barry O’Farrell third on 8%.

UPDATE 2: That, and the finding that only 62% were able to name Barry O’Farrell as the Premier …

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

30 comments on “Galaxy: 58-42 to Coalition in New South Wales”

  1. Last State Level NSW poll I could find was Newspoll, conducted Jan-Feb 2012, released March. Is it the only other NSW poll since the election?

    It was Coalition 64 – 36 ALP TPP, so this Galaxy poll is some improvement for the ALP.

    March 2012 article

    March 2012 NSW (and VIC) Newspoll table

  2. [It was Coalition 64 – 36 ALP TPP, so this Galaxy poll is some improvement for the ALP.]

    Wasn’t that about the worst poll for the ALP ever in the history of the universe?

    A 16 point lead after making cuts and this far into a term when you have a 49 seat lead over your opposition is pretty good news.

    And for that we thank the NSW “Always” Right for all their wonderful decisions.

  3. Apparently 40% of people can’t name the NSW Premier. I’m guessing that this partially explains the 2PP. If the Premier is not the story, and one is not politically engaged, one assumes the government is doing a good job.

    Doubtless too even those who think the Premier/Libs is/are doing a poor job still recall the dreadful job done by the last lot and for the moment are giving the regima pass since the opposition seem not to have made any serioius attempt to reinvent itself as a viable alternative, presumably on the basis of the inference by the local ALP that if they wait long enough the Libs will eventually annoy enough people to bring even Sussex St back into a competitive position. They could be right of course and certainly, business would like it that way because that arrangement gioves them the most leverage over policy.

    Regrettably, the public never gets a turn at relevance when this style of bipartisanship is in force. The choice is between rightwing policies carried out by slightly more energetic rightwingers or rightwing policies carried out by those who have become demoralised, dysfunctional and thus moribund.

    It’s hard to overstate what a devastating setback for Sussex St (and perhaps even the Federal ALP in 2010) was their victory in 2007. Had Debnam squeaked over the line and screwed up they’d either be back in power or close and the ALP Federally would probably have ruled on its own post-2010 (if narrowly).

    It shows that “Gloria Clemente” was onto something. 😉

  4. Looking from outside NSW, based on the recent bi-election and the council elections, I would think that if an election was held to day the result would be about 55 LNP – 45 ALP on a 2pp basis. This would be a heavy defeat for the ALP, but would represent an almost 10% improvement since the last election a little under two years ago. Clearly the NSW ALP has a lot of work to do to regain the trust of the NSW electorate but on the current trend, the next NSW election will be reasonably close with a likely LNP victory, but heaven help them if someone is shot and killed in a national park during the next two years.

  5. @ruawake:

    [Who is the best NSW Premier in the past 25 years? Bob Carr by miles 32%.]

    My favourite bit was that even amongst Coalition voters, more rated Bob Carr as the best than O’Farrell in this poll question. Although, loons that they are, even more of them rated Nick Greiner.

  6. Actually I think that’s a pretty good result for the ALP. It’s a jump above the margin of error which means it’s a significant swing towards them. Considering the opposition leader is barely heard from, and that the effects of the education cuts probably wont come through to the public until next year, this is a promising result.

  7. One doesn’t emerge from a disaster like a train from a tunnel, but like a bird from an oil slick.

    40% can’t name the Premier? At all, or from a list? Either way, given O’Farrell’s been Lib Leader 5 years, that kind of stat shakes one’s faith in compulsory voting (even allowing for the rationality of tuning out politically, described by Fran Barlow)

  8. [40% can’t name the Premier? At all, or from a list? Either way, given O’Farrell’s been Lib Leader 5 years, that kind of stat shakes one’s faith in compulsory voting ]
    Perhaps it shows that NSW voters decided on a careful assessment of the parties’ policies, weighing up the pros and cons, balancing personal interest with broader interests of society, rather than a superficial attachment to vacuous personality politics.

    Perhaps 😀

  9. Interestingly compared to the federal position in NSW, this poll puts State Labor 2.9% behind Federal Labor in this state. The comparison is with the NSW component of the Australia poll average.

    State Galaxy vs Australia Poll Avg (NSW component)

    Coalition 47 vs 45.7
    Labor 31 vs 33.9
    Greens 11 vs 10.1
    Others 11 vs 10.7

    Conversely the state Coalition are running 1.7% ahead of their federal counterparts on a primary vote basis.

  10. ShowsOn Romney is 65 right. Has anyone ruled out that he is suffering dementia?

    Probably not. But you might need a review given you are posting a comment on the US elections in a NSW thread.

  11. Shellbell

    That would be interesting. Would save money (which has gotta be in short supply); they are a remote chance.

    With optional PV, this gives Alex Greenwich a better chance of preventing a Liberal win (over 60% of ALP voted exhausted at the 2011 general election)

  12. Shellbell

    This is of course, not proof. But there is no denial from Sam Dastyari on twitter (he scotched the story about Anna Bligh very quickly)

  13. Actually, looks like it has some legs. Local paper:
    [Sydney Labor members slam “gutless” head office
    21 SEP 12 @ 11:21AM BY ALEX CAUCHI

    Members of inner-Sydney Labor branches have branded NSW Labor head office “gutless” for refusing to run a candidate in the upcoming Sydney by-election.

    The ALP Sydney State Electorate Council unanimously voted to condemn the decision by NSW Labor, with the council’s president Dr Sacha Blumen describing the decision as a sign of contempt for ALP members and supporters.

    “Not running is a gutless no-show by John Robertson and Sussex St,” Dr Blumen said.

    “Not running vacates the field to Labor’s electoral opponents in inner Sydney. Local ALP branches called for a preselection months ago. Three talented members were willing to stand for preselection.”

    “This is the shameful victory of empty Sussex St tactics over substance.”

    Dr Blumen, who ran in the 2008 local government election and 2011 state election, said the decision may have implications for the 2013 federal election and future state and local elections.

    Independent candidate Alex Greenwich welcomed the decision by NSW Labor yesterday after being endorsed by outgoing MP and Sydney Lord Mayor Clover Moore.

    The decision by NSW Labor is viewed as a strategic move to to not split the progressive vote, giving Liberal candidate Shayne Mallard less chance of securing the seat.

    At this stage the battle for Sydney is set to be contested by Alex Greenwich (Independent), Shayne Mallard (Liberal) and Chris Harris (Greens).]

  14. The site revamp seems to have messed up the comment paging terribly – the main thread with 5000+ comments is doing stupid things showing all comments regardless of page but with dodgy numbering.

  15. this is a test to see if i can post then read my post, william i am unable to read the posts after #50 from the main thread all of a sudden

  16. I’m trying to make sense of the posts times and date sequence.

    Am I right in assuming that, like the comments posting section, with the oldest at the bottom they’re now upside down? I’m not critising anything at this point. Just trying to understand what’s happened with all these changes. I haven’t been here often recently. But that’s more about a few things happening in my personal life.

    I hope that the format settles down so that the regulars will still contribute.

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