Morgan phone poll: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Bonner

A new phone poll corroborates Newspoll. Or does it?

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Roy Morgan has published a poll which, so far as the headline figure goes, is extremely interesting in that it a) is consistent with the Newspoll result, and b) was conducted by phone, and thus cannot be anticipated to suffer the pro-Labor bias typical of Morgan’s face-to-face polling. However, the headline figure to which I refer is from respondent-allocated preferences, which for so long have been flowing to Labor in confoundingly weak proportions in Morgan’s face-to-face polls. In this poll however they have flowed to Labor inordinately strongly. If using the measure which allocates preferences according to how they flowed at the previous election, which I and all other pollsters recommended, the Coalition has a somewhat more comfortable lead of 52.5-47.5. The primary vote results are striking in being high for both major parties: 39.5% for Labor and 47% for the Coalition, against 8% for the Greens and a very low 5.5% for others.

The poll was evidently conducted from Monday to Thursday (despite some confusion in Morgan’s heading) from a sample of 668, with a margin of error of about 3.8%. Other questions were also posed by this poll, so stay tuned for more detail.

NOTE: As you may have noticed, Crikey has a new look and its implementation is characteristically being accompanied by teething problems – most seriously the failure of comments thread pagination, which has caused the previous 5000-plus comments thread to not work terribly well. Presumably this one should be okay though, for at least as long as it remains fairly short.

UPDATE: Further findings from the Morgan poll are that Julia Gillard recorded a fairly solid approval rating of 40%, with disapproval of 51%, which represents changes of 3% and 6% since Morgan last posed the question in January. Tony Abbott meanwhile is respectively down four to 32% and up four to 60%. On the question of better prime minister, Gillard has remained steady on 45% while Abbott has dropped four points to 37%. Abbott has also lost further ground to Malcolm Turnbull on the question of best leader for the Liberal Party, the former down three to 19% and the latter up five to 42%. That leaves Abbott nearly level with Joe Hockey, who is down one to 18%. Julia Gillard continues to trail Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader, with Gillard up three to 22% and Rudd up one to 34%.

And not forgetting …

Seat of the week: Bonner

To commemorate Labor’s improved position in the polls, Seat of the Week takes its first excursion to the Coalition side of the electoral pendulum.

The Brisbane electorate of Bonner extends south-westwards from the bayside Wynnum-Manly area to Mount Gravatt. It was created at the 2004 election, and has remarkably been left unchanged by the two redistributions conducted since. The seat is also remarkable for having changed hands with each election, starting with the Liberals’ success in overhauling a 1.9% notional margin in 2004. The defeated Labor candidate was Con Sciacca, a Keating government minister who held Bowman from 1987 to 1996 and again from 1998 to 2004. Sciacca took the safer option when the transfer of Wynnum-Manly to the new seat left Bowman with a notional Liberal margin of 3.1%, but he was unable to withstand an adverse swing of 2.4%. Labor appeared to be especially hampered by the loss of Kevin Rudd’s personal vote in those areas of the electorate which had previously been in Griffith.

The inaugural member for Bonner thus became Ross Vasta, a staffer to Senator Brett Mason, former restaurant owner, and the son of noted Brisbane barrister and Bjelke-Petersen era Supreme Court justice Angelo Vasta. Vasta’s main source of publicity in his one term in parliament was his involvement in the scandal surrounding misuse of electoral printing allowances, for which he was cleared by the Director of Public Prosecutions shortly before the 2007 election. He was always going to have his work cut out defending the Coalition’s most marginal Queensland seat at the 2007 election, and duly fell victim to a 5.2% swing which compared favourably with a statewide swing of 7.5%.

Bonner was then held for a term by Kerry Rea, previously a Brisbane councillor representing a ward that included the area around Mount Gravatt. Vasta meanwhile returned to his old job with Brett Mason and unsuccessfully contested the Wynnum-Manly ward for the Liberals at the 2008 Brisbane council election. The newly constituted Liberal National Party then gave him the chance to recover his old seat, which did not seem a likely proposition in the political climate of the time. While that had certainly changed by the time of the 2010 election, Vasta’s victory on the back of an emphatic 7.4% swing was a serious disappointment for Labor, making Bonner the “safest” of its nine notionally held Queensland seats to fall to the LNP.

Labor’s preselected candidate for the next election is Laura Fraser Hardy, an associate with Hall Payne Lawyers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,563 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Bonner”

Comments Page 24 of 32
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  3. frednk, I had a whinge to the Crikey team on that to that effect. If I bookmark the page I last read, ?comment_page=10 say, it worked from where I last left off. Now, any page links is number of posts dependent.

    First world problem I guess.

    But I wonder how much they paid for the makeover – save costs I guess by not having test servers/users. And does a pretty less driveable website make for good archives – I think that’s the business model of GlobalMail.org so it must have some appeal to someone/

    If they break the weekday mailout format to their subscribers (or dilute it’s content) then it would be most sad indeed.

    I do get paid to make database aware websites and I admit I do not have an artistic bone in my body, nor do I care, function and usability are everything. Although I admit, some clients it’s all about pretties and it can’t be shaken. (I’ve adjusted hue on a client’s monitor, he was there and thought it magic, to get just the right corporate shade of green – I smile and deliver for I’ve never understood it myself why pretty can trump functionality and ease of use. Easy to drive to me is beautiful when it really works, but I know I’m a dino in this industry)

    I’d be happy if I could get the ALL button back for all comments – we’ll see I guess. Progress 🙂

  4. William @ 1148
    [Bemused, NormanK’s views comments are measured, reasonable and appreciated. Yours are those of a childish and stupid wanker whom nearly everybody who comes here would like to see back of.]
    I am in your hands William, boot me if you wish. 😀

    NormanK seemed to compile a lot of observations while I have made odd observations on the fly, including some positive ones.

    So what got up your nose?

  6. [VICTORIA will not follow in the footsteps of others states pushing to legalise same-sex marriage, with Premier Ted Baillieu refusing to allow Liberal MPs a conscience vote on the issue.

    The decision puts Mr Baillieu at odds with his New South Wales Liberal counterpart, Barry O’Farrell, who last week confirmed he would grant a free vote on a gay marriage bill to be drafted by a group of cross-party MPs later this year.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/no-conscience-vote-on-gay-marriage-baillieu-20120922-26dvn.html#ixzz27GGjG9Eq

    I thought Baillieu was supposed to be a moderate Liberal?

  7. Victoria @ 1146

    Hewson and Abbott have the same thing in common , they will be known as losing the unloseable election

    Hewson was a rambling fool during the election campaign in the keating era

  8. confessions

    [lizzie:

    We are all in the same boat in having to adapt to the changes. Perhaps some of us are better at coping with change than others, who knows.]
    Then there are those who believe technology should adapt to people rather that the other way around. As for the colours,use of green like that for web page text was a known mortal sin years before even the dotcom crash. I do wonder what is happening though as a number of sites I visit have in recent times adopted the format as per new front page of Crikey. Technical reasons or fashion trend ?

  9. I’m enjoying reading this book on former Queensland premiers.

    The chapter on Arthur Moore was interesting. He certainly deserved being voted out of government after 1 term.

    He used his power to destroy the career of the federal Labor treasurer among other things.

  10. poroti:

    A fair point, except I do think the problems people are having will be ironed out. They have been in the past, so there’s no reason to think they won’t be in the future.

  11. Bob Ellis doesn’t miss Tony Abbott in this latest effort

    [Money for the families of the dead in Bali, and those who were injured and survived, in 2002, he now proposed. Although for five years after the bombing, when he was in cabinet, he did not think of it, or argue it then and help enact it.

    Even if he got to it later (which he did), it raised the question of why we should foot the bill and not, say, the Indonesian government or Jemiah Islamia. And, if the Bali Bombing victims deserve this much, how about the parents of children forcibly adopted? How about the children themselves? How, indeed, about the Stolen Children? How about the families bereaved by the Granville train wreck? How about the children born mutant because of Agent Orange and a war we had no right to be in?

    It showed in him a distance from logical connection that was actually frightening, and bespoke, perhaps, of brain damage from his years as an amateur boxer. He seemed like a babbling, opportunistic, fool.]

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/bob-ellis-tony-abbott-is-finished/

  12. Bushfire
    [Have to agree with this from NormanK.]
    FWIW, another vote for what NormanK said

    [The new format lives in a perpetual present.]
    Wow that is deep. So, so, JP Sartre. I like it 😀

  14. confessions

    [poroti:

    A fair point, except I do think the problems people are having will be ironed out. They have been in the past, so there’s no reason to think they won’t be in the future.]
    Apart from the upsidedownbacktofront comment situation I don’t have any serious complaints about the change.The pea green is a mere nuisance and a lack of warning to users was plain stupid. As a subscriber I feel a right to a free whinge,the customer is always right and all that 😆

  17. http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/09/the-worst-thing-that-has-happened-to-our-democratic-election-system/262719/
    [‘The Worst Thing That Has Happened to Our Democratic Election System’
    Sep 22 2012, 2:34 PM ET

    Andrew Cohen has been doing a formidable job of covering what is otherwise a substantially under-covered theme in this election year: the efforts to disenfranchise large numbers of voters, especially in swing states. Here are four sample installments in recent months: ]
    William, perhaps we could have a frsh U.S. election thread some time next week?

  19. Click on the PERMALINK of the last comment with your scroll button.
    It will open a new tab starting at the comment you clicked on.
    Only diff now is you then scroll up to read new comments insted of scrolling down

  20. [I am in your hands William, boot me if you wish.

    Done.]

    The Lord giveth and the Lord hath taken away. Praise be the name of the Lord.

  21. Diogenes

    [I am in your hands William, boot me if you wish.

    Done.

    The Lord giveth and the Lord hath taken away. Praise be the name of the Lord.]
    and blessed are the cheese makers.

  22. Burgey: ‘For those worried about the site changes, rest comfortable in the knowledge that the mobile site is still a steaming pile of shit.’

    I take issue with that only to the extent of saying I would now call it an even greater steaming pile…

  26. William, would you like to borrow a violin 😀

    Cheer up – we all appreciate you and your efforts greatly, and understand that you are not to blame for the teething troubles.

  27. William, Can we have a Show All button please. I use auto scroll a fair bit and just slowly go down the page although if it all continues from bottom to top then maybe not worthwhile as I have to stop the page to read with the end of the post appearing first at the top. I have found that by tipping my screen slightly the text appears darker and clearer. Using Firefox and colours are good.

  29. BK
    re your wonderful comment this morning re TA, which I tweeted one tweeter reckons wrong word was used , he reckons “emasculated” as no balls at all, I replied I would take his word as I did particulately want to explore the possibility

  30. Diogenes

    [poroti

    If the Life of Brian was about Mohammed instead of JC, the Python team would still be in hiding.]
    That said,there were many attempts at getting blasphemy charges laid.The good citizens of Aberystwyth were banned until 2008 from seeing the movie.
    Crow Eaters may like to see what a Southwark guy back in 1979 (along with Malcom Muggeridge) arguing the movie blasphemous. Southwark beer of course having 25 IBU’s !!! 🙂
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ni559bHXDg

  31. Bilbo: is anything being done about the lime green? Seriously, my eyes are straining to read links.

    On the upside, I am actually getting used to reading the “front to back” posts. Either it’s a good idea or I have now gone completely mad 😉

  33. DL

    [Bilbo: is anything being done about the lime green? Seriously, my eyes are straining to read links.]

    Think of it as GMO Greens and all will be well.

  34. Afternoon All

    First post since the changes, I’m sure we’ll all get up to speed pretty quickly. Took me a little while to find my “end” and “home” buttons, they’ll become very handy.

    Insiders today was rubbish, I should’ve slept in instead. Not sure why everyone seems to be ignoring Tassie in the marriage equality debate – the right decision by the upper house could really shake things up

    I see the boats haven’t stopped despite our new harsher approach – what’s the time frame that’s meant to happen in???

    Well done to the Swans and Hawks, Bulldogs and Storm on making the grand finals – it’s the S’s for me, especially the mighty Swannies 🙂

  37. womble
    [Insiders today was rubbish, I should’ve slept in instead. ]
    In the nicest possible way “Rubbish !” . It was a most excellent display of how the Akers,Tones ,Cory’s , Bolta’s brigade are a bunch of nutters of the type JG and Swanny have in recent times drawn attention to.

  39. “The Coalition are not a Stalinist Party” Says Mesmerelda Bishhop today(and I swear I didn’t see her face move as she said it 🙂 ).

    However, it appears they ARE an Orwellian Party who say they are not a Stalinist party but who demand party unity in approach to the Wheat Deregulation issue. Which, in a Stalinist fashion, appears to involve a return to government/beaurocrat control over Wheat Sales via a close approximation of the old Single Desk mechanism, which the Agrarian Socialists(Stalinists? 😉 ), in the National Party in the Eastern States apparently favour, and which the Liberals appear ready to capitulate over.

    Never fear, in true Stalinist fashion, ‘Ironbar’ Wilson Tuckey is predicting blood on the floor to come. 🙂

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-23/coalition-split-emerges-over-wheat-deregulation/4275966

  40. Poroti and BK another good reply from one of the tweeters

    Seems 2 me, Coalition males went to the same clinic re BK.InBernardi’s case it was lobotomy as well.

  41. [Australia has the worst record for plant and mammal extinctions in the world in the past 200 years. We clear land faster here than in any other developed nation. Our planet is heating up and the best our governments can do is gag the scientists who would hold us to account and prop up the industries that contribute to the problem.

    Unless the Victorian Government puts an end to old-growth logging in the state forests of eastern Victoria, the legacy of Premier Steve Bracks may well include the extinction of a tiny possum. For woodchips. For the paper on which history will record the state-sanctioned passing of our fauna emblem. It is madness.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/a-possum-stares-extinction-in-the-face/2006/02/17/1140151809030.html?page=2

  42. C@tmomma

    [“The Coalition are not a Stalinist Party” Says Mesmerelda Bishhop today(and I swear I didn’t see her face move as she said it ). ]
    They are certainly the party that time forgot. What demographic in the 21st century would even know what the fcuk “Stalinist” means ? Apart from your spotting the Hypnotoad using the term Tony “Santamaria” Abbott has used it heaps in the last 2 weeks. Hypnotoad ?
    ALL GLORY TO THE HYPNOTOAD Mesma
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W84DLa0CLNE

    The 10 minute Mesma
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AOfbnGkuGc

  47. rather intereting piece on the independant thanks for the link/

    notice that commentors did not not agree re mr turnbull

    interesting,

  48. [pixilatedme ‏@pixilatedme
    @randlight @otiose94 @nancycato1 Thx 2 BK 4 solving the riddle that is the Coalition, blank which ever way u look at them]

    BK hope you see this

    Poroti think you have hit it in one, or two???

  49. so lizzie is victoira still logging old forests.
    do you have the same amout of protest we have.
    ‘the tarkine is the next battle.

    but as its rather large i have not problem with a tiny
    one percent having a mine. after all we need balance and work and export.
    I am hoping the minister approves the one percent, you want even notice it.

  50. Watching MTV classics 100 Greatest Albums of all time. Not many countries would have a government minister at No.51 . Come on down Peter Garrett with Blue Sky Mining. Look it up. Gina’s inheritance started with blue asbestos.

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