Morgan phone poll: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Bonner

A new phone poll corroborates Newspoll. Or does it?

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Roy Morgan has published a poll which, so far as the headline figure goes, is extremely interesting in that it a) is consistent with the Newspoll result, and b) was conducted by phone, and thus cannot be anticipated to suffer the pro-Labor bias typical of Morgan’s face-to-face polling. However, the headline figure to which I refer is from respondent-allocated preferences, which for so long have been flowing to Labor in confoundingly weak proportions in Morgan’s face-to-face polls. In this poll however they have flowed to Labor inordinately strongly. If using the measure which allocates preferences according to how they flowed at the previous election, which I and all other pollsters recommended, the Coalition has a somewhat more comfortable lead of 52.5-47.5. The primary vote results are striking in being high for both major parties: 39.5% for Labor and 47% for the Coalition, against 8% for the Greens and a very low 5.5% for others.

The poll was evidently conducted from Monday to Thursday (despite some confusion in Morgan’s heading) from a sample of 668, with a margin of error of about 3.8%. Other questions were also posed by this poll, so stay tuned for more detail.

NOTE: As you may have noticed, Crikey has a new look and its implementation is characteristically being accompanied by teething problems – most seriously the failure of comments thread pagination, which has caused the previous 5000-plus comments thread to not work terribly well. Presumably this one should be okay though, for at least as long as it remains fairly short.

UPDATE: Further findings from the Morgan poll are that Julia Gillard recorded a fairly solid approval rating of 40%, with disapproval of 51%, which represents changes of 3% and 6% since Morgan last posed the question in January. Tony Abbott meanwhile is respectively down four to 32% and up four to 60%. On the question of better prime minister, Gillard has remained steady on 45% while Abbott has dropped four points to 37%. Abbott has also lost further ground to Malcolm Turnbull on the question of best leader for the Liberal Party, the former down three to 19% and the latter up five to 42%. That leaves Abbott nearly level with Joe Hockey, who is down one to 18%. Julia Gillard continues to trail Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader, with Gillard up three to 22% and Rudd up one to 34%.

And not forgetting …

Seat of the week: Bonner

To commemorate Labor’s improved position in the polls, Seat of the Week takes its first excursion to the Coalition side of the electoral pendulum.

The Brisbane electorate of Bonner extends south-westwards from the bayside Wynnum-Manly area to Mount Gravatt. It was created at the 2004 election, and has remarkably been left unchanged by the two redistributions conducted since. The seat is also remarkable for having changed hands with each election, starting with the Liberals’ success in overhauling a 1.9% notional margin in 2004. The defeated Labor candidate was Con Sciacca, a Keating government minister who held Bowman from 1987 to 1996 and again from 1998 to 2004. Sciacca took the safer option when the transfer of Wynnum-Manly to the new seat left Bowman with a notional Liberal margin of 3.1%, but he was unable to withstand an adverse swing of 2.4%. Labor appeared to be especially hampered by the loss of Kevin Rudd’s personal vote in those areas of the electorate which had previously been in Griffith.

The inaugural member for Bonner thus became Ross Vasta, a staffer to Senator Brett Mason, former restaurant owner, and the son of noted Brisbane barrister and Bjelke-Petersen era Supreme Court justice Angelo Vasta. Vasta’s main source of publicity in his one term in parliament was his involvement in the scandal surrounding misuse of electoral printing allowances, for which he was cleared by the Director of Public Prosecutions shortly before the 2007 election. He was always going to have his work cut out defending the Coalition’s most marginal Queensland seat at the 2007 election, and duly fell victim to a 5.2% swing which compared favourably with a statewide swing of 7.5%.

Bonner was then held for a term by Kerry Rea, previously a Brisbane councillor representing a ward that included the area around Mount Gravatt. Vasta meanwhile returned to his old job with Brett Mason and unsuccessfully contested the Wynnum-Manly ward for the Liberals at the 2008 Brisbane council election. The newly constituted Liberal National Party then gave him the chance to recover his old seat, which did not seem a likely proposition in the political climate of the time. While that had certainly changed by the time of the 2010 election, Vasta’s victory on the back of an emphatic 7.4% swing was a serious disappointment for Labor, making Bonner the “safest” of its nine notionally held Queensland seats to fall to the LNP.

Labor’s preselected candidate for the next election is Laura Fraser Hardy, an associate with Hall Payne Lawyers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,563 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Bonner”

Comments Page 25 of 32
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  1. my say

    The Leadbeater’s Possum’s problem is that so much of its habitat was burnt out in the Black Saturday fires and another huge amount was removed afterwards to “clear up the mess”. Protests continue, but VicForests has government support, even though they’re making little or no profit from their logging. Same in the Gippsland Forests.

  2. Notice the way the pollbludger home page can display upto 999 comments. This site redesign was designed with no appreciation of the volume of comments, unless it’s designed to turn us off commenting

  4. zoidlord

    [NSW can’t find money, but apparently AOK to hire 2x$400,000 Consultants:
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/recruitment-bonus-is-obscene-waste-20120922-26dn8.html%5D
    Same old same old for Coalition rightoids. While Canjoh was kicking pensioners out of their homes and closing down anti suicide programs he had $110 million for race horse welfare and the cherry on top, money for the Barcaldine Goat Races.You get the picture of their priorities.

  5. poroti & mari,

    [

    Seems 2 me, Coalition males went to the same clinic re BK.InBernardi’s case it was lobotomy as well.

    Top and tailed ?]

    And eviscerated 👿

  6. poroti,

    [Gina’s inheritance started with blue asbestos.]

    IMHO Ms Rinehart should immediately if not sooner put the greater part of her wealth into a trust fund for the immediate if not sooner benefit of all victims of Australian blue asbestos and their families.

    Talk about blood money.

  7. Seems like the wheat stuff is brewing nicely. 🙂

    Seems Ms Bishop wants to delay so that more work can be done, except the work has already been done that is why the full deregulation was delayed two years ago.

    Fancy not even having the guts to discuss it – wimps these Libs, not Stalinists – marshmallows.

  10. OK, PB question for the day. How totally fuacked is the US of A ? Hint ( Oh and this sort of thing is now a regular occurrance)

    [HOUSTON (AP) — A Houston police officer shot and killed a one-armed, one-legged man in a wheelchair Saturday inside a group home after police say the double amputee threatened the officer and aggressively waved a metal object that turned out to be a pen.]
    http://news.yahoo.com/houston-officer-kills-double-amputee-wheelchair-222540280.html

  11. Oh come now zoidlord..

    It’s vitally important for state governments to provide employment for consultants. We can’t have these people working for any less than $400,000 a year plus perks. Think of what would happen if they had to find menial jobs as, say, TAFE teachers, earning far less than $100,000 a year. The flow-on effect would be catastrophic. Think of all the purveyors of fine wines and gourmet foods who would lose out. Think of the vendors of fine suits and handmade shirts who would suffer. And what about the hairdressers and boutique owners and millinersof Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs, who would have their profits slashed to ribbons if the wives and mistresses of these vitally important blokes could no longer afford to patronise their businesses. I won’t even start on the financial ruin awaiting the providers of luxury motor vehicles to the gentry if these hard-working men suddenly had to trade in their Beemers and Mercs for three year old Hyundais. Allowiong these men to carry out their essential tasks is crucially important in keeping the economy of NSW ticking over. We need more highly paid consultants if the state is to prosper.

    I base these comments on the weeping and wailing that followed the cancellation of Sydney’s Spring Racing Carnival in 2007 due to an outbreak of equine influenza. Grave fears were help for the well-being of those who were unable to sell their over-priced hats, frocks, shoes and imported champagne to well-heeled racegoers. Even the hairdressers had a big whinge. No-one cared about the horses.

  13. Will Leadbeater’s survive the climate change already factored in? The AGW changes in fire regime and hydrology already factored in would render the chances of survival smallish, I imagine.

    I have actually seen them in the wild in a site that has subsequently been burned out. They are cute.

  16. sprocket_

    [Tony Abbott’s charm offensive in fullswing today:]
    Without a panda,baby seal,kitten, orphan or little old lady trying to cross the road in sight they just aren’t trying 🙂

  18. [fiona
    Posted Sunday, September 23, 2012 at 4:26 pm | PERMALINK
    poroti & mari,

    Seems 2 me, Coalition males went to the same clinic re BK.InBernardi’s case it was lobotomy as well.
    Top and tailed ?

    And eviscerated]
    I am surrounded by clever people both on Twitter and PB, I am feeling quite inadequate!

  20. Hmm I thought Tony’s Rotary award was a big deal – it isn’t.

    [Paul Harris Fellow/Multiple Paul Harris Fellow
    D onors of US$1,000 or more to the Annual Programs Fund, PolioPlus, or the Humanitarian Grants Program, or people who have that amount contributed in their name, can be recognized as Paul Harris Fellows. Each new Paul Harris Fellow receives a commemorative certificate and a pin.
    Become a Paul Harris Fellow
    Simply mail the completed recognition and contribution form (PDF) with your check.]

    Hmm. Nice Trick Tone.

  23. Boerwar

    Frankly, I think the L.Possum is a goner. If David Lindenmayer has virtually given up and there is no change in Baillieu govt thinking there is strong likelihood of complete habitat loss. I’m thinking an example is Orange-bellied Parrot. Huge efforts have been made to save it for decades, but in the end coastal development has eaten into its habitat and the strong winds accompanying AGW are going to cause more difficulties in migration across the Tasman.

  25. [Paul Harris Fellow/Multiple Paul Harris Fellow
    D onors of US$1,000 or more to the Annual Programs Fund, PolioPlus, or the Humanitarian Grants Program, or people who have that amount contributed in their name, can be recognized as Paul Harris Fellows. Each new Paul Harris Fellow receives a commemorative certificate and a pin.
    Become a Paul Harris Fellow
    Simply mail the completed recognition and contribution form (PDF) with your check.]

    So not quite the nobel Prize? but even so, he was so “honoured to receive” the award, that Abbott got his folks along.

    Can anyone recall his parents being brought out before?

  27. [Can anyone recall his parents being brought out before?]

    They were brought out from England as “Assisted Passengers”. I still don’t get how Australian Citizens get to be $10 pound poms – Abbott never mentions it.

  28. This Rotary “award” is like the US college degree you can buy online – just download the PDF form and send the cheque

    Not to say Abbott doesn’t do charity stunts, so he has probably raised the money for Rotary. Rotary are a small business club, so the Manly branch probably double as the liberal Party chapter.

    A stunt.

  29. [Can anyone recall his parents being brought out before?]

    No. I assumed they were dead. Margie seemed to be trying hard – and failing – to smile. She has good reason to look grim, being married to Tone would make even a saint look morose.

  30. [so the Manly branch probably double as the liberal Party chapter.]

    The branches here certainly carry out that function. They keep out the riff-raff (aka Labor voters and anyone earning less than a motza or two a year) by ‘inviting’ prospective members to join. You are supposed to know you have really ‘made it’ here when you get that invitation.

  31. ruawake

    They were brought out from England as “Assisted Passengers”. I still don’t get how Australian Citizens get to be $10 pound poms – Abbott never mentions it.]
    A nice little rort,Australian citizens bringing their family out as £10 Poms.But who wouldn’t given the opportunity ? The money was on offer.

  34. mari
    [I am surrounded by clever people both on Twitter and PB, I am feeling quite inadequate!]

    It’s a great gift, being able to make others think they are cleverer than you. They’ll love you for it while you smile behind your hand. 😉

  35. Ah Poroti I loved the clip, especially the Highland Cattle and Nessie of Lock Ness fame. But I am south of the border ancestry , just an honorary Scot because of my Grandsons I guess http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o01_7V_J9Yc&feature=related
    This is the area I love, my daughter and SIL have a holiday house on the Whisky Trail, an old converted distillery employee’s house, next door to the operating distillery, which isn’t open to the public

  36. lizzie
    Posted Sunday, September 23, 2012 at 5:16 pm | PERMALINK
    [

    I am surrounded by clever people both on Twitter and PB, I am feeling quite inadequate!

    It’s a great gift, being able to make others think they are cleverer than you. They’ll love you for it while you smile behind your hand.]

    Love you Lizzie

  37. Leadbeaters Possum habitat was burnt out in 2009 bushfires plus Victoria continues to log native forest and the Baillieu government has allowed unrestricted collection of firewood. Labor had restricted fire wood collection to preserve the nesting hollows of small Australian mammals and birds.

    But this is the state government that sent cattle back to graze in Alpine National Park, has cut Country Fire Authority funding wants to build tourist attractions in National Parks and is funding the hunt for PUMA, read feral cats

  38. [Abbott was born in London, England,on 4 November 1957 to expatriate Australian parents. On 7 September 1960, his family moved to Australia on the Assisted Passage Migration Scheme ship Oronsay. His mother was an Australian citizen and his father had lived in Australia since 1940 when he arrived as a 16 year old to get away from the dangers of wartime Britain]

    So his dad moves to Australia, marries a fine Australian lass and trains as a Dentist. Then somehow they end up in the UK and get the Australian Govt to ship them home. Cheaper than people smugglers I suppose.

  40. Abbott brought his wife and parents out today? Wow, the Libs must be petrified. Still, I’m sure it’ll all go the way of his “flick the switch” rollout of policy. He’ll be back moaning about the ALP in a day or two.

  41. ruawake

    [Then somehow they end up in the UK and get the Australian Govt to ship them home. ]
    Hence his “Stop the Boats” obsession 🙂

  45. mari,

    Which organ was eviscerated on TA? Or is it a total disembowelment? Need Diogines and Oakeshott Country

    I somehow think that this is a topic that naice ladies should not be discussing, let alone considering 😉

  46. [fiona
    Posted Sunday, September 23, 2012 at 5:20 pm | PERMALINK
    mari,

    I am surrounded by clever people both on Twitter and PB …

    I look up to clever, witty people like you]
    Shucks Fiona, I thanks you from the bottom of my heart, you astute person

  47. [fiona
    Posted Sunday, September 23, 2012 at 5:30 pm | PERMALINK
    mari,

    Which organ was eviscerated on TA? Or is it a total disembowelment? Need Diogines and Oakeshott Country

    I somehow think that this is a topic that naice ladies should not be discussing, let alone considering]

    And of course naive ladies like us!!! We don’t even know what the word means!!!

  48. […is father had lived in Australia since 1940 when he arrived as a 16 year old to get away from the dangers of wartime Britain]

    So it is OK for his father to escape the ravages of war but not others? I guess this is why Abbott rarely mentions his parents.

  49. mari,

    Shucks Fiona …

    Oh mari, let’s come out loud and proud: we PB women not merely wreck the joint, each of us is more than capable of taking on the entire PB male contingent with one arm tied behind us and subduing them with one fell glance.

    (What’s more, almost the entire PB male contingent is well-aware of this not terribly inconvenient fact 😀 )

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