UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing has changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions relate to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, which party has the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).
To commemorate the occasion of Mark Riley’s report on alleged Labor internal polling, we visit the scene of what would, assuming the poll to be authentic, be its biggest surprise: Tasmania, where Labor is said to be looking at a devastating swing and the loss of all four of its seats.
The hook for Riley’s report on Channel Seven was that Tasmania was among four states and territories where Labor was set to be wiped out, the others being Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. The first did not come as a surprise, as the picture of a 9% swing taking all in its path is entirely familiar from state-level breakdowns from Newspoll and Nielsen and Queensland-specific polling from Galaxy. However, the implied swing in Western Australia of 6%, as would be required to knock over Stephen Smith in Perth and Melissa Parke in Fremantle, is at odds with Newspoll, which has showed Labor holding its ground: 57-43 in October-December, 54-46 in January-March and 55-45 in April-June, compared with 56.4-43.6 at the election. Riley’s numbers do accord with Nielsen, whose last three monthly results for WA average to 62-38. However, even after combining three polls their sample is a very modest 390 (with a margin of error of about 5%), compared with about 900 (margin of error about 3.4%) for Newspoll.
In the case of Tasmania, together with the Northern Territory (where Labor is in danger of losing Warren Snowdon’s seat of Lingiari), no such basis for comparison is available. The state is excluded from Newspoll and Nielsen’s breakdowns for inadequate sample sizes, and the state’s one public pollster, EMRS, usually contents itself with state politics. In relating that Labor faced a two-party deficit of 56-44, the Riley report thus presumed to tell us something we didn’t already know – and quite a remarkable thing at that, given that the last election gave the Liberals their worst result in Tasmania since the modern party was founded in 1944 (33.6% on the primary vote and 39.4% on two-party preferred).
It hadn’t always been thus. At the consecutive elections of 1975, 1977, 1980, 1983 and 1984, it was not Labor but the Liberals who enjoyed clean sweeps of the state’s five seats. Certainly the state has form in turning on Labor over environmental controversies, the Franklin Dam issue of the early 1980s and Mark Latham’s forestry policy at the 2004 election being the cases in point. It could be that the another environmental issue, the carbon tax, has alienated Labor from the blue-collar base that sustains it outside of Hobart. While it seems hard to believe that this alienation could be so fierce as to power a swing of 17%, it should be remembered that the 2010 result forms an artificially high base, owing to a half-hearted campaign waged by a Liberal Party that had its strategic eye elsewhere.
The most marginal of the five seats, Bass, was dealt with in an earlier post, so today naturally enough we move on to the second, its western neighbour Braddon. Confusingly known before 1955 as Darwin, Braddon covers the north-western coastal areas of Tasmania, plus King Island in the Bass Strait. The redistribution before the 2010 election extended the electorate along the full length of the thinly populated west coast, which benefited Labor by adding the mining towns around Queenstown. The dominant population centres are Devonport and Burnie, which respectively supply about 25% and 18% of the voters.
Demographically, Braddon is distinguished by the lowest proportion of residents who completed high school of any electorate in Australia (and, relatedly, the eleventh lowest median family income), and it ranks second only to neighbouring Lyons as the electorate with the smallest proportion of non-English speakers. The timber and mining industries that have traditionally provided a solid base for Labor are balanced by beef and dairy farming, which contribute to a more conservative lean in the western parts around Smithton. Labor’s strongest area is Burnie, although Devonport also traditionally leans its way.
Braddon/Darwin was held by Labor legend King O’Malley from its creation in 1903 until 1917, and then by conservatives of various stripes until Ron Davies gained it for Labor in 1958. Davies held the seat until 1975, when future Premier Ray Groom’s victory contributed to the first of the Liberals’ clean sweeps. Groom was in turn succeeded upon his move to state politics in 1984 by Chris Miles. The Liberals’ electoral position meanwhile continued to strengthen due to the decline of the area’s key industries and the political upheaval caused by the Franklin Dam controversy.
Braddon’s fortunes changed very suddenly in 1998, when a 10.0% swing made Peter “Sid” Sidebottom the seat’s first Labor member in 23 years. Labor has since been defeated only in 2004, when John Howard’s late-campaign trumping of Mark Latham over forestry jobs fuelled a 7.0% swing that delivered the seat to Liberal candidate Mark Baker. Sidebottom had declined to distance himself from Latham’s policy, unlike Dick Adams in neighbouring Lyons. Endorsed again in 2007, Sidebottom was able to recover the seat with a modest 2.6% swing, before adding a further 5.1% to his margin in 2010. On the former occasion the swing was most strongly concentrated around Smithton, reversing a heavy swing to the Liberals from 2004, while the swing in 2010 was greatest in Devonport and Latrobe.
Sid Sidebottom had been a Central Coast councillor and electorate officer to Senator Nick Sherry before entering parliament, and he returned to the employ of Sherry during the interruption of his parliamentary career from 2004 to 2007. Sidebottom is presently factionally unaligned, but like Sherry was formerly a member of the Centre/Independents faction, known in its Hawke government heyday as the Centre Left. He was promoted to parliamentary secretary after the 2001 election, serving in various permutations of agriculture, resources and fisheries over the ensuing term. It took until November 2011 for him to recover his old status, that month’s reshuffle slotting him into the familiar agriculture, fisheries and forestry portfolio.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Michael Burr, described by the Burnie Advocate as a “high-profile Devonport real estate business owner”. Burr won preselection from a field that also included Glynn Williams, a North Motton farmer and lawyer described in the local press as an “ultra conservative”, and lower-profile local Jacqui Lambie. Burr’s backers reportedly included Senators Richard Colbeck and Stephen Parry, and local state MP Adam Brooks. It was thought that another contender might be Brett Whiteley, who lost his state seat in Braddon at the 2010 election, but he announced in the week before the preselection that he would instead focus on returning to state politics.
[No-one gets to be an Olympian simply because they played sport at school. To say, as Coates does, that more sport time at school will somehow get us more medals is just ridiculous.]
How right you are, leone. The kids with sporting ability are nurtured outside School sport and it’s the parent who do the hard yakka. We had 3 kids playing in State teams in 3 different sports (plus playing for school teams). It was a nightmare getting them all to training and matches plus Sports camps and our life was a constant coming and going.
I was glad when they got driving licences but it wasn’t the school that fostered the interest. I’ve seen many parents completely worn down so I don’t envy any family which has a kid wanting to make the Olympics. I certainly don’t decry any kid who doesn’t get a medal – most are trying their hearts out and more money is not the answer.
I’d get rid of Coates and Gosper for good – they’ve got me fired up.
And Abbott is making me burn as well – just a big pity that Bob Ellis wrote his book a few years too soon otherwise Abbott and Costello would be suffering if Abbott ideas on freedom were in vogue.
The Schools were only
Boewar
[The only one I can think of is a military medal awarded by another nation.]
Think those are worn on opposite side of chest
r
Why would even the Coalition want to dig up all the pollution they have buried around Australia?
Reminder for those interested. Qanda tonight includes
Craig Emerson
George Brandis
Bob Katter
c@tmomma
[. I just have this amazing feeling of awe and wonder washing over me.]
I have not felt such a space based buzz since the last moon landing.
Schappi
I am ignorant of these matters. I thought the non-heart side medals are those earned by a relation rather than the wearer. Happy to learn on the matter. So, what was the answer to which medal cannot be worn?
poroti
[Schnappi
Is it one awarded by a foreign government ]
No , an Australian Medal
[Bob Katter]
So remember to turn that TV volume down a bit before watching, especially if played through big speakers.
Depends if you are in uniform on not. If in mufti you may wear whatever you wish.
Schnappi
[No , an Australian Medal]
Bugger. Last guess how about one awarded for doing something not able to be acknowledged publicly by the government ?
The medal I have is for service to Australia,lousy guvmint does not allow to be worn
Perhaps helps.
[Let’s hope some of the journos with a bit of class see this speech of Abbott’s for what it is and start to exercise some real free speech!]
BK – we can but dream. Betcha none of them pick it up. It will be alternative media that will dissect it but that won’t be reported.
poroti
[Schnappi
Is it one awarded by a foreign government]
Although I was in SAS,now SASR not one of those
poroti
meant your post
Bugger. Last guess how about one awarded for doing something not able to be acknowledged publicly by the government ?
Schappi
Is it true that there is no law preventing you from wearing whatever medal you have purchased whenever you feel like it?
Schnappi
DSIS?
Boerwar
Medals from the likes of the Royal Humane Society are also worn on the ‘tother side.
Gosper has out-Coatesed Coates.
Well done!
Tosser!
poroti
I plead Sergeant Schulz.
As someone who got to the State level in Athletics in my chosen athletic discipline, Walking, and the Zone in a few others, plus was School Open Athletics Champion one year. Not only that but was in an Australian Champion team one year and chosen for the Rep Team in the team sport which I participated in outside of school, I think I can safely say that there are 2 essential ingredients if you want to go so far as the Olympics.
1. Motivation. Enough to get up from a warm bed in the middle of Winter, or in the baking sun in Summer, to go and compete, every weekend for most of the year. Topped up with motivation enough to back up a few times a week to train. Plus the motivation and desire to be the best at what it is you are doing.
2. A physiology appropriate to the discipline. However, I would also add that there are Olympic sports which don’t really need a particular physical type, eg Archery, just that motivation thing again.
And no one made me do it. I wanted it so badly that I pushed myself mainly.
Boewar,ru,poroti,
Just thought that people who have died for service in Australia,are not very well acknowledge by our pollies,some never served overseas even,some were civilians,3 british services ,3 of ours and civiiians, served at Maralinga,to get the Medal one had to serve there during the atomic tests period.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/08/06/get-fact-is-the-labor-caucus-full-of-working-class-heroes/
[Monday, 6 August 2012
Get Fact: is the Labor caucus full of working-class heroes?
by Andrew Crook
In his now notorious John Button Lecture last week, Wayne Swan, in a rollicking attempt to energise the base, made the following claim about the working class bona fides of the federal Labor caucus:
“Like Springsteen, I and many caucus members came from working class families, and got the chances our equally talented brothers, sisters and friends often never got, after watching our parents being denied the opportunities in life that their talents deserved.”
Wayne’s story, immortalised in his 1993 maiden speech to parliament, is well known. His hardworking parents, who both died in their 60s, “did not get a fair go. I was fortunate enough to get a fair go, and I got that fair go from the Whitlam government.”
But is Labor’s 102-member caucus really full of ex-battlers like Wayne striving against the odds to stake out a piece of Capital Hill for the downtrodden?]
worth a read, turns out many are
Schnappi
[meant your post
Bugger. Last guess how about one awarded for doing something not able to be acknowledged publicly by the government ?]
Strewth!
You aren’t known as Sparky in another life are you?
I think that sailing chappie might ruin the $600 million a gold medal line that I have cherished for the Games so far.
It looks like we will be degraded to $300 per million per gold. The per capita GDP of the world’s poorest country is less than $400.
Olympic class losers? Them or us?
[Martin Hodgson @MartinGHodgson
WTF The #ABC is running with Abbott’s line that somehow he & the Bolt types are the persecuted ones. Are you lot high? Seriously?? ]
Full table of ALP MPs is linked in the above article, but here it is for easy access.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/08/06/get-fact-which-labor-mps-are-working-class/
Schnappi
[served at Maralinga,to get the Medal one had to serve there during the atomic tests period]
Geez don’t tell me you were used as human guinea pigs by the Brit and Aus govmints ?
Boerwar
All is revealed here http://www.itsanhonour.gov.au/honours/awards/wearing.cfm
C@tmomma
What year were you competing at the state level?
Dee
Posts were mixed there ,anyway answer is at 2121
Schnappi
Is this what you refer to?
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s2071938.htm
bemused
I’m all for encouraging school sports but they shouldn’t be compulsory.
And we should encourage them so our kids are healthier, not to make dickheads like Coates and Gosper feel better.
bemused
I’m all for encouraging school sports but they shouldn’t be compulsory.
And we should encourage them so our kids are healthier, not to make d!ckheads like Coates and Gosper feel better.
[Martin Hodgson @MartinGHodgson
WTF The #ABC is running with Abbott’s line that somehow he & the Bolt types are the persecuted ones. Are you lot high? Seriously?? ]
If only there was a reasonable rational reason like them being high. It is much much worse than that.
poroti
[Geez don’t tell me you were used as human guinea pigs by the Brit and Aus govmints ?]
Many civilians ,besides service personal died from cancers at a disaportunate rate ,perhaps their families also got the medal sent to me as well.
http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=780478&vId=
[Liberal MP hopeful of asylum solution
Updated: 17:18, Monday August 6, 2012
A Liberal member of a federal cross-party MP group seeking a solution to the asylum seeker policy deadlock is hopeful of finding answers that will uphold human dignity and save lives.
The cross-party group includes Labor, coalition, Greens and independent MPs, and includes outspoken Liberal MP Judi Moylan.
The group will meet in Canberra on August 13 – the day before parliament resumes after the winter break – to hear the views of non-government organisations.]
More in the article. It’s Moylan. I wish her all the best, but I’m sure Abbott will find a way to say no to whatever is proposed regardless of what it is.
ruawake
Spot on
Cannot wear it ,it is a medal(Medallion) in a little box
When some people die,one could assume just chucked in a box and disposed of like the glassware
I drove past an office in Adelaide this afternoon and it had a big “Senator Mary-Jo Fisher” sign on it.
BK @ 2137,
Did you genuflect?
Schnappi
I’m assuming you are not able to engage in discussions about your role at Maralinga??
ruawake.beorwar,poroti
The other thing about the medal ,it has no number ,no name on it,if stolen could be valuable some day as not many issued,my service medals all have name and number on them.
I am thinking of ordering a chest full of medals from a supplier. If Idi could do it, why not moi?
How about a Bludger Medal of Honour, Second Class?
briefly @ 2082
I am not sure if you are being serious or not with that contribution as there is a tendency to try to push more and more onto schools and a reaction to resist.
I think kids should get educated in core subjects and I would include Mathematics, English, Science and Physical Education in that core.
There is opportunity within this core to include some of what you list e.g. English could include communication and presentation skills with the use of audio-visual aids just like I learnt English with textbooks, exercise book and pen.
Outside the core subjects kids should get to follow their particular interests, be it arts or sciences.
Good schools provide extra-curricular activities such as debating, chess, drama etc and all schools should aspire to become good schools and offer such activities.
I wish I had learnt music at school including learning an instrument. I am not sure where I would fit it in. 😉
Schnappi
[Cannot wear it ,it is a medal(Medallion) in a little box]
Stuff ’em. Wear it anyway and wear it with pride.From the government’s “It’s an Honour” website you may be O.K. to wear it as they say about “Unofficial medals” the following. They say “ideally” well the world is not an ideal one.
[Unofficial medals
Ideally, unofficial medals should not be worn at public ceremonial and commemorative events, but if they are worn as the occasion demands, the convention is that they are worn on the right breast]
fiona
No – genufluct
Dee
[Schnappi
I’m assuming you are not able to engage in discussions about your role at Maralinga??]
Not a problem as well documentated know,will say signed the crimes act 3 times in my career, but seems people like ashby /brough can do what I cannot do, and maybe he will get away with it
bemused
[I wish I had learnt music at school including learning an instrument. I am not sure where I would fit it in. 😉 ]
There are some who would say you are a dab hand at beating a drum 😉
It seems like the Medallion was given to commemorate 50 years since the end of tests at Maralinga.
Howard was sacred shitless of admitting Australia did anything wrong – ever. 🙁
Looks like the CLP will try to bring in the Fed in NT and Labor will stick to state stuff.
Abbott will campaign there but Gillard will not.
[The CLP has already dragged Ms Gillard into the election.
It launched an advertisement, headlined “The real Labor team”, featuring Mr Henderson and the prime minister with the slogan, Birds of a Feather Stuff it up Together.]
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/breaking-news/writ-issued-for-aug-25-nt-election/story-e6frea7l-1226443750327
http://multimedia.aapnewswire.com.au/image.aspx?imageID=20100211000218198184&Preview=Y&ImageSizeType=MiniHighRes
Try this one. ooops