UPDATE (23/7): The weekly Essential Research has Labor recover the point it lost last week to trail 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up two), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Further questions find 53% thinking it “likely” an Abbott government would introduce industrial relations laws similar to WorkChoices against 22% unlikely, and 37% thinking “Australian workers” would be worse off under Abbott against 32% better off. There is also a rather complex question on amendments to surveillance and intelligence-gathering laws.
UPDATE 2: Morgan face-to-face, conducted over the previous two weekends, has two-party preferred steady at 54-46 on previous-election preferences and down from 57.5-42.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated. On the primary vote, Labor is up 2% to 31.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 12%, with the Coalition steady on 43%.
The inner southern Sydney electorate of Reid covers the southern bank of the Parramatta River from Drummoyne west to Silverwater, extending further south to Burwood, Strathfield, and Auburn. The seat has never been in conservative hands since its creation in 1922, but it became winnable for the Liberals after being transformed by the redistribution before the 2010 election. This caused it to assume about 70% of the voters from its abolished eastern neighbour, Lowe, retaining only the area to the west of Homebush Bay Drive and Centenary Drive, from Silverwater south to Rookwood. It was originally proposed that the redrawn electorate bear the new name of McMahon, in honour of Sir William, but objections to the loss of the name Reid (so named after George Reid, titan of the state’s late colonial free trade forces and the nation’s fourth prime minister) led to the name of McMahon instead being accommodated by renaming the outer western Sydney seat of Prospect.
Lowe was created in 1949 from areas covered by the since-abolished Martin and Parkes (the latter bearing no relation to the current rural electorate of that name), and had a very slight notional Labor margin on its creation. Billy McMahon nonetheless gained the seat for the Liberal Party in 1949 and held it until the end of his career in 1983, withstanding particularly strong Labor challenges in 1961 and 1980. Labor’s Michael Maher won the by-election that followed McMahon’s retirement, and the seat thereafter changed hands with some regularity. Bob Woods won it for the Liberals in 1987, but was weakened by redistribution and then tipped out by a swing to Labor’s Mary Easson in 1993. Paul Zammit regained the seat for the Liberals in the 1996 landslide, but quit the party in protest against the Howard government’s airport policy in 1998. John Murphy was able recover it for Labor in 1998, having won preselection over the rather better credentialled Michael Costello, secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs. Murphy held parliamentary secretary positions from December 2001 until he stood down citing family illness in February 2009, but is perhaps better remembered for complaining in parliament about the size of a serving of beef stroganoff his wife had received from the parliamentary cafeteria.
Reid in its original incarnation covered Bankstown, but it shifted northwards when Blaxland was created in 1949. A member of Jack Lang’s breakaway state ALP branch held the seat from 1931 to 1940, and Lang himself was member for one term after a surprise win under the ALP (Non-Communist) banner in 1946. Lang unsuccessfully contested Blaxland in 1949, and Reid was recovered by Charles Morgan, the previous member whom Lang had unseated. Morgan lost preselection at the 1958 election to Tom Uren, a future minister in the Whitlam and Hawke governments, who was in turn succeeded by Left potentate Laurie Ferguson in 1990. When the redistribution was announced in 2009 it was thought a preselection showdown loomed between Murphy and Ferguson, but it soon became apparent Ferguson’s eyes were set on Fowler to the west, and he was eventually accommodated in its southern neighbour Werriwa. Murphy meanwhile retained preselection for Reid unopposed, and went on to have his margin slashed from 10.8% to 2.7% at the 2010 election as part of a backlash against Labor throughout Sydney.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Craig Laundy, heir to and general manager of his father’s “$500 million hotel empire”, who won an April 2012 preselection with backing from Tony Abbott. Laundy’s main rival for the preselection was Dai Le, an ABC Radio National producer and two-time state candidate for Cabramatta.
DL,
[… in spite of their relative youth …]
Christopher Pyne in a canter!
Danny Lewis, wouldn’t be a QandA panellist (tonight) you would be referring to hmmm?
The mainstream media will die when the polls turn.
They will DIE 😀
BK,
Your address is “Mr BK”?
Good article on the implied freedom of political communication:
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/JCULRev/2005/5.html#Heading271
Pretty short and easy-to-understand.
Interestingly, the author concludes that:
[What is clear following Mulholland is that in order to invoke the implied freedom of political communication, a pre-existing right must be burdened and that right must exist independently of the law in question.]
I’m having trouble understanding how Ashby could claim the release of Slipper’s diaries was protected by the freedom when Ashby didn’t have the right to release them.
TLBD
[BK,
What do the three rings on my left shoulder say?]
Dunno, maybe missed something, seems three rings on left shoulder say exactly that or the rings are not on right shoulder.
Fiona: absolutely.
Herd immunity is designed to protect those who CANNOT be vaccinated, not those who just choose not to.
The more people who choose not to be vaccinated, the weaker the herd immunity becomes and eventually a disease is able to make a comeback.
Just like Whooping Cough is now.
Every time I hear an anti-vax person sprouting their ignorant shite, I just want to bang their head against the nearest hard object.
BB
I have a Woolie’s card which I rarely use.
My surprise when the shop assistant asked me for my card,(found it amazingly) swiped it and it instantly took $15 off my bill.
When did immediate discounting occur?
I was shocked I tells ya!
Here is anothery in the back of the envelope series of Greens policies:
[prohibit the exploration for, and mining and export of, uranium.]
Current exports are around $700,000,000 per annum. The policy says kill that stone dead. Exports foregone over forward estimates at current rate of exports and current value of uranium = $2.8 billion. Not too good for our balance of payments situation. But hey, who cares about foreign debt when we have a magic pudding?
Company tax foregone: unknown. Wild guess: a very, very conservative $15,000,000 per annum, times four gives $60 million over forward estimates. Hey this is small beer when the running total deficit for Greens policies over forward estimates is around $80 billion. Still, I will add it to the running totals.
There are numerous small companies undertaking exploration. There are three operating mines. Assume 1,000 direct jobs lost. Plus multiplier effect gives a total of 2,500 jobs lost. (If this is not conservative now, it will be by the time the Greens gain government. Australia has 40% of the world’s uranium reserves and the industry is poised for rapid growth.) Naturally there would also be multiplier damage effects as investors head overseas to avoid increased risks, regulation, delays, taxes and charges.
The newly unemployed would be covered by the Greens government job creation scheme (see elsewhere). Estimated cost: $20,000 per head. Total per annum 2,500 times $20,000 gives $50,000,000, times four for forward estimates = $200 million.
Total cost to government over forward estimates $260,000,000.
I support nuclear power, regarding AGW as the number one menace that Earthians face. But that is a whole other debate about this policy.
The usual disclaimers about my not knowing too much about the uranium industry, counting numbers, making up numbers etc, etc. But, since these are the only numbers published on Greens policy costing and revenues, consider yourself lucky. Think of it this way: ‘In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king’.
Henry
[The poor old supplier always cops it in the neck.]
It is why I say “praise be” to the Sheepens cow cockies, who traditionally formed co-ops, when offered the gold said “Get Stuffed”. Sadly the Australian cow cockies said yes. New Zealand dairy farmers are now part of a global 800 pound gorilla called Fonterra whilst the poor bugger me Australian dairy farmer are price takers being screwed royally by Coles and Woolies.
THE DARK KNIGHT MOFOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TLBD,
There was an earlier vaccination based on an attenuated, rather than dead, virus that was (typically) trialled in the Belgian Congo, and then in Poland – but the researcher was Polish, so I doubt if Denmark was afflicted.
Pyne on Q&A?
I’m not watching it!
I’ll get a running commentry here at PB.
Bludgers call the game properly 🙂
If that Tony Jones sits on a knitting needle and rotates like he should, call out, I’ll switch it on immediately. 😀
Danny,
I could kiss you! :kiss:
fiona:
I completely agree with your comment.
[So refusing to immunise is deeply selfish – fine if you can rely on sufficient herd immunity]
Indeed. Yet herd immunity is not guaranteed, esp in communities which are largely transient or have significant proportions of the population who aren’t immunised.
Unfortunately what people don’t understand is that it just takes contact with one person who hasn’t completed his/her immunisation schedule for them or their child to be at risk.
I do agree that its inherently selfish. As a dog owner I encounter the same anti immunisation arguments among fellow dog owners, and I just shake my head and resolve to continue immunising my dogs.
BK: all will be revealed at the next SA Chapter Get-together.
Incidentally, can anyone else do dinner Friday August 17th or lunch Saturday August 18th? 😉
Danny
I’ll be in Canberra then. So the email request still holds.
[BK: all will be revealed at the next SA Chapter Get-together.]
Are we going to see The Dark Knight Rises mofos!?
DL
We got whooping cough immunization in our sixties – to protect the grandkids…
[Incidentally, if nothing appears in the media over the next month or so it is pretty much proof they are in cahoots with the Opposition.]
This suggests Mark Butler, but he is a star on the front bench, and there hasn’t been anything in the reporting which indicates he should resign.
Sorry Danny, guess I’ll just be waiting for the shit to hit the media fan.
If a newcomer is OK, a Friday dinner sounds good?
[DL
We got whooping cough immunization in our sixties – to protect the grandkids…]
Boerwar
Mrs BK and I also were re-immunised before going to see our new grand daughter. It’s called responsibility.
Your numbers on the Greens “policies” are coming along well!
Boerwar
Well done. You are living proof that not all on the Labor left are Loons.
But don’t worry about their costings, making plans for their funeral could be more productive 🙂
DL,
I will take your first sentence in the equivocal way that you may not have intended! However,
[Every time I hear an anti-vax person sprouting their ignorant shite, I just want to bang their head against the nearest hard object.]
You know you want to … just DO it!
I thought DL was referring to Pyne??? Where does Butler come into it?
Fiona: I have a copy of The White Death by Julian Cribbe, who posited that AIDS had its origins in the Belgian Congo in the 1950s and was a result of an improperly attenuated batch of oral polio vaccinations.
Interesting theory, although I understand the scientific community – especially those closely involved in those trials, obviously – are rather scathing about it.
Still, that batch Cribbe believes was responsible appears to be the only one missing from both sample remnants AND written test results …
confessions
Mark Butler is a govt MP. DL refers to an opps MP
On the immunisation front, I had my children vaccinated with all the govt sponsored vaccines and two new ones came out (for the life of me I can’t remember what they were for) and I paid (one was $120) to have both of my children done.
On the other hand I watched my best friend and his wife as they were on the brink for weeks as his four week old daughter contracted whooping cough and were told that it wasn’t likely that she would make it.
Luckily for them she did survive but it was a touch and go thing and both parents were haunted by that experience for a long, long time.
No problem Swing Required. Just be aware that tradition dictates that the newcomer pays for all drinks.
This is an ancient tradition I just invented.
Snappy,
I had an injection, or maybe three, in my left shoulder. I haven’t a clue what but I seem to recollect they were for three separate diseases. It was definitely early fifties.
2357
Technically heard immunity is not designed. It just exists as a result of vaccinating a certain large majority of the community. It works best when only those who cannot be vaccinated are without vaccination.
Danny
It could become a PB tradition for local Bludgers to welcome interstate Bludgers when the opportunity arises.
[I’m having trouble understanding how Ashby could claim the release of Slipper’s diaries was protected by the freedom when Ashby didn’t have the right to release them.]
As I said earlier, if Ashby’s claim is successful, then I predict a slew of appeals from people who have been convicted for releasing Cwlth material to others without authority.
As BB has said, it’s a ruse designed to delay proceedings with the ultimate aim of keeping Slipper sidelined. Slipper needs to assert some authority here, throw down the gauntlet and declare that if Abbott can remain in his position while facing court proceedings, then the same courtesy should extend to Slipper.
Enough is enough!
Henry: no names, just hints is the pack-drill.
And yes, ‘fess; it’s a Liberal member.
Mark is not only safe, he’s a darling.
PM one day, for mine 😉
[If a newcomer is OK, a Friday dinner sounds good?]
But we’re seeing The Dark Knight rises afterwards right mofos?
Confessions,
[Indeed. Yet herd immunity is not guaranteed, esp in communities which are largely transient or have significant proportions of the population who aren’t immunised.]
Which is yet another of the highly salient arguments in favour of immunisation.
I suspect that one of the real problems is that so many of the 1960 plus people have no real experience of the victims of polio, and of all the other nasties.
BK,
You lot already made it an institution. ‘Onya!.
My first one was a success. Recommend that non-Labor fans be invited, subject to the judgement of the host.
Boerwar:
Is uranium covered by the MRRT?
If so, then add however many millions lost to MRRT revenue courtesy of Greens absurd, idelogical opposition to the extractive industries.
[ Centre
Posted Monday, July 23, 2012 at 9:04 pm | Permalink
The mainstream media will die when the polls turn.
They will DIE ]
Is this statement followed by a maniacal laugh?
Where are the Green supporters?
Pegasus?
Fran?
Fargot?
Still in mourning from the byelection result obviously.
Hey, have they conceded yet 😆
DL
[no names, just hints is the pack-drill. ]
OK. Some more hints then, please.
Shows: I will give you – in your hot little hand – $100 if you turn up to the next SA Poll Bludger event.
I am THAT confident you are all mouth and no trousers 😉
Now, who is going to be the first Bludger watching QandA tonight to crack when
a) Prissy Pyne hogs time?
b) Prissy Pyne continually sprouts non sequiturs?
c) Jones rudely interrupts Roxon?
d) a Ruddstoration question is asked?
e) a “Julia lied” question is asked?
There’s a song about that. Long time…
Bluegreen
The polls are going to turn.
The more the leadershit ZIP, the sooner the turn. 😉
[Where does Butler come into it?]
The person in question can’t be in cahoots with the opposition if the person in question is an opps MP.
Am I misreading DL’s comment?
DL,
[Still, that batch Cribbe believes was responsible appears to be the only one missing from both sample remnants AND written test results …]
Yeah, so of course it’s immutable truth.
How did it get into the greater ape population, then? Some mad scientists dashing out and injecting all and sundry?
[ Come on Danny – you’ve got my email address! 🙂 ]
Mine too. Looking forward to sharing the goss with you!
TLBD@2380
The use of vaccinations for diptheria as I mentioned ,has almost eradicated it.
[Diphtheria (Greek διφθέρα (diphthera) “pair of leather scrolls”) is an upper respiratory tract illness caused by Corynebacterium diphtheriae, a facultative anaerobic, Gram-positive bacterium.[1][2] It is characterized by sore throat, low fever, and an adherent membrane (a pseudomembrane) on the tonsils, pharynx, and/or nasal cavity.[3] A milder form of diphtheria can be restricted to the skin. Less common consequences include myocarditis (about 20% of cases) [4] and peripheral neuropathy (about 10% of cases).[5]
Diphtheria is a contagious disease spread by direct physical contact or breathing the aerosolized secretions of infected individuals. Historically quite common, diphtheria has largely been eradicated in industrialized nations through widespread vaccination. In the United States, for example, there were 52 reported cases of diphtheria between 1980 and 2000; between 2000 and 2007, there were only three cases[6] as the diphtheria–pertussis–tetanus (DPT) vaccine is recommended for all school-age children. Boosters of the vaccine are recommended for adults, since the benefits of the vaccine decrease with age without constant re-exposure; they are particularly recommended for those traveling to areas where the disease has not been eradicated.]
tlbd
Smallpox, I think. It was a scrape rather than an injection. Only alternative could be TB?