Seat of the week: Reid

UPDATE (23/7): The weekly Essential Research has Labor recover the point it lost last week to trail 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up two), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Further questions find 53% thinking it “likely” an Abbott government would introduce industrial relations laws similar to WorkChoices against 22% unlikely, and 37% thinking “Australian workers” would be worse off under Abbott against 32% better off. There is also a rather complex question on amendments to surveillance and intelligence-gathering laws.

UPDATE 2: Morgan face-to-face, conducted over the previous two weekends, has two-party preferred steady at 54-46 on previous-election preferences and down from 57.5-42.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated. On the primary vote, Labor is up 2% to 31.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 12%, with the Coalition steady on 43%.

The inner southern Sydney electorate of Reid covers the southern bank of the Parramatta River from Drummoyne west to Silverwater, extending further south to Burwood, Strathfield, and Auburn. The seat has never been in conservative hands since its creation in 1922, but it became winnable for the Liberals after being transformed by the redistribution before the 2010 election. This caused it to assume about 70% of the voters from its abolished eastern neighbour, Lowe, retaining only the area to the west of Homebush Bay Drive and Centenary Drive, from Silverwater south to Rookwood. It was originally proposed that the redrawn electorate bear the new name of McMahon, in honour of Sir William, but objections to the loss of the name Reid (so named after George Reid, titan of the state’s late colonial free trade forces and the nation’s fourth prime minister) led to the name of McMahon instead being accommodated by renaming the outer western Sydney seat of Prospect.

Lowe was created in 1949 from areas covered by the since-abolished Martin and Parkes (the latter bearing no relation to the current rural electorate of that name), and had a very slight notional Labor margin on its creation. Billy McMahon nonetheless gained the seat for the Liberal Party in 1949 and held it until the end of his career in 1983, withstanding particularly strong Labor challenges in 1961 and 1980. Labor’s Michael Maher won the by-election that followed McMahon’s retirement, and the seat thereafter changed hands with some regularity. Bob Woods won it for the Liberals in 1987, but was weakened by redistribution and then tipped out by a swing to Labor’s Mary Easson in 1993. Paul Zammit regained the seat for the Liberals in the 1996 landslide, but quit the party in protest against the Howard government’s airport policy in 1998. John Murphy was able recover it for Labor in 1998, having won preselection over the rather better credentialled Michael Costello, secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs. Murphy held parliamentary secretary positions from December 2001 until he stood down citing family illness in February 2009, but is perhaps better remembered for complaining in parliament about the size of a serving of beef stroganoff his wife had received from the parliamentary cafeteria.

Reid in its original incarnation covered Bankstown, but it shifted northwards when Blaxland was created in 1949. A member of Jack Lang’s breakaway state ALP branch held the seat from 1931 to 1940, and Lang himself was member for one term after a surprise win under the ALP (Non-Communist) banner in 1946. Lang unsuccessfully contested Blaxland in 1949, and Reid was recovered by Charles Morgan, the previous member whom Lang had unseated. Morgan lost preselection at the 1958 election to Tom Uren, a future minister in the Whitlam and Hawke governments, who was in turn succeeded by Left potentate Laurie Ferguson in 1990. When the redistribution was announced in 2009 it was thought a preselection showdown loomed between Murphy and Ferguson, but it soon became apparent Ferguson’s eyes were set on Fowler to the west, and he was eventually accommodated in its southern neighbour Werriwa. Murphy meanwhile retained preselection for Reid unopposed, and went on to have his margin slashed from 10.8% to 2.7% at the 2010 election as part of a backlash against Labor throughout Sydney.

The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Craig Laundy, heir to and general manager of his father’s “$500 million hotel empire”, who won an April 2012 preselection with backing from Tony Abbott. Laundy’s main rival for the preselection was Dai Le, an ABC Radio National producer and two-time state candidate for Cabramatta.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,533 comments on “Seat of the week: Reid”

Comments Page 49 of 51
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  1. [2096
    hugh moran
    Posted Monday, July 23, 2012 at 5:47 pm | Permalink
    Getting the case put off until Oct 2nd means that Slipper will now miss half of the remaining sittings of Parliament, and if the case is managed to get put off to December that will be the full Parliamentary year taken care of as far a Slipper is concerned.]

    No, it doesn’t. Convention only requires him to stand aside while criminal matters are on foot against him. In this context , these would be the can charge matters referred to the Federal DPP. IF the DPP clears him or declines to lay charges, there is nothing to prevent Slipper resuming his seat.

    Civil litigation is not enough to trigger the convention. If it were, Abbott would have to stand aside on account of the defamation proceedings currently on foot against him.

    And finally, in regards to the convention, I must say that the Tories the,selves seem to have taken the view that it is no longer relevant. Just look at Senator Mary Jo. She sat and voted in the SEnate for several months while criminal proceedings were on foot against her. For the Tories to now make some sort of song and dance over civil proceeds ngs against Slipper smacks of hypocrisy.

    Then again, when has that ever stopped them?

    My tip is that Slipper will be back in the Speakers chair as soon as he is cleared by the Federal DPP. The Indies won’t cop any hypocritical frogshit from the Opposition on this.

  2. [Shows: I will give you – in your hot little hand – $100 if you turn up to the next SA Poll Bludger event.]
    Sorry Danny but I’m not your regular prostitute. You have me confused with someone else who is your regular prostitute.

  6. [Is uranium covered by the MRRT?]
    No.

    [If so, then add however many millions lost to MRRT revenue courtesy of Greens absurd, idelogical opposition to the extractive industries.]
    The greens support putting the MRRT on uranium and gold and everything else.

    This is a good policy.

  7. [And yes, ‘fess; it’s a Liberal member.]

    Thanks Danny.

    My head went ‘Pyne’ as it has ever since reportage of his alleged contact with Ashby suddenly dropped off the face of the earth (and I’ve been banging on about it ever since), but the reference to cahoots with the opposition threw me.

    Apols!!

  8. Here is a bit of a policy poser for the Greens. Olympic Dam Mine produces lots of copper, gold and uranium.

    It uranium mining is to become illegal, as per Greens policy measures, will the Olympic Dam Mine be closed by the Milne Government?

    Integrity would say, ‘Yes.’ If so, my original costings would be like a… like a… like a currant in a magic pudding.

  10. [it’s a ruse designed to delay proceedings with the ultimate aim of keeping Slipper sidelined.]

    Confessions,

    It certainly seems to be.

  12. [But we’re seeing The Dark Knight rises afterwards right mofos?]

    If, as Henry says, I’m buying the drinks (under the new ancient tradition), we’ll be in no fit state to get there, Shows:)

  15. Boerwar

    [It uranium mining is to become illegal, as per Greens policy measures, will the Olympic Dam Mine be closed by the Milne Government?]
    Any party standing between $1.5 trillion and “principles” will be roadkill. End of.

  16. [BK
    Correction

    a Ruddstoration question is asked?

    d) many Ruddstoration questions are asked?]
    Probably a valid point, Dee!

  17. [Now, who is going to be the first Bludger watching QandA tonight to crack when
    a) Prissy Pyne hogs time?
    b) Prissy Pyne continually sprouts non sequiturs?
    c) Jones rudely interrupts Roxon?
    d) a Ruddstoration question is asked?
    e) a “Julia lied” question is asked?]

    BK: if we turned that into a drinking competition we’d be completely pissed within the first 10 minutes!

  20. [If, as Henry says, I’m buying the drinks (under the new ancient tradition), we’ll be in no fit state to get there, Shows:)]
    WE CAN SEE THE DARK KNIGHT RISES FIRST THEN MOFOS!

  21. Are you Bludgers planning get togethers?

    How about if Julia wins in 2013, we all get together to one of the resorts for a long weekend party.

    It’s compulsory attending for the PB women. Global warming should be in full swing by then, we can take our budgie smugglers to do up Abbott. 😈

    Star City in sensational Sydney would be ideal 🙂

  22. [Which is yet another of the highly salient arguments in favour of immunisation.]

    I think it was last year there was a whooping cough outbreak in my town – something like tens of reported cases in an overall childrens population of less than 1500, and at least 2 deaths which made the news.

    Of course, being a ‘bohemian’ town like Byron Bay (which turns up on Google as being linked with AVN crap), there are many parents here who refuse to immunise their children.

    At some point my head goes to child abuse. Those kids who died, died unecessarily and because of the abject selfishness of their parents. It’s inexplicable.

  23. Closing down Olympic Dam because uranium is mixed in with the copper and the gold would cost around 4,000 mining jobs at Olympic Dam. (Before the proposed expansion).

    Let’s see. They are not going to get any other job out that way. (There might be one organic-beef farming jackeroo job to go around after a wet year.) Multiplier effect across the South Australian economy turns 4,000 jobs into 10,000 jobs. Fortunately, the Greens have had the foresight to have a government job creation scheme to ensure full employment. 10,000 @ $20,000 is $200,000,000 per annum, times four, gives you forward estimates costs of $1,000,000,000 to the government for this one mine alone.

  24. [The suggestion is that if it is not reported, the media is in cahoots with the opposition]

    victoria:

    Cheers. I wasn’t reading the media in Danny’s comment. 🙂

  25. People who refuse immunisation for their children are damn fools, and selfish to boot.

    They’re not only putting their own kids at risk, they’re putting others’ kids at risk too. I am of the view that immunisation should be compulsory for those capable of being immunised.

    This sort of conduct is indeed akin to child abuse, IMHO.

  26. Ashby is attempting to argue that, having stolen something – in this case, information – from his employer, he should not be considered to be a thief because he didn’t keep it to himself but “expressed it politically”, or, to be precise, published it to others. This is utterly spurious.

    If this conduct were found to be no more than the exercise of free speech, then it is hard to conceive of any information that might be protected against theft and publication. Considering that “information” itself has a very wide meaning these days, embracing intellectual property of all kinds, Ashby’s so-called constitutional claim is extraordinary. Since when does the constitution operate to eliminate the concepts of property and its criminal taking?

    I am sure the Federal Court will see a distinction between expressing a political opinion and stealing something for a political purpose and will find there is no constitutional issue here. Rather, this is a further abuse of process by Ashby and his backers.

  27. Henry: no names, just hints is the pack-drill.

    And yes, ‘fess; it’s a Liberal member.

    So, hows about one of the twitter literate PB’ers tweeting a “spend more time with the offsprung” question to one of the QANDA panel tonight?

  28. fess, re avn
    Why the hell do we have to put up with this American Anti-Science crap? Deport the cretin.

  29. [Still in mourning from the byelection result obviously.
    Hey, have they conceded yet]
    This is the one comment I made about the outcome of the Melbourne by-election.
    ——————————————

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/07/16/essential-research-57-43-to-coalition/comment-page-19/#comment-1344305
    Pegasus
    Posted Tuesday, July 17, 2012 at 9:58 am | Permalink

    womble,
    [A seat in the Victorian Lower House is just a few days away]
    I never make predictions like this. Given the reliance on preference flows, it is likely to be a tight contest.
    ———————————————

    I have nothing to concede as I did not predict a win and had no expectations re the outcome.

    So, I am not in mourning and am more determined than ever to support a truly progressive political party other than the entrenched political duopoly who are in alliance with the same vested interests with the shared aim to protect the status quo, or ‘business as usual’. 😉

  30. Fiona: Cribbe suggests that there was (maybe still is?) a SIV (Simian Immunodeficiency Virus) that existed in certain species of chimp and which is very closely related to HIV. He believes it crossed into humans via the polio vaccs and mutated into what was, then, an extremely virulent virus.

    HIV has, in itself, attenuated over time and is much less “deadly” than it used to be, even without modern treatments.

    Part of the “debunking” of his theory is that chimp kidneys were not used to attenuate the polio virus, although there are apparently some photos in existence that show chimpanzees in captivity in the compound where they were extracting samples for use/testing etc.

    Basically it is a lot of he said/he said; most of which seems to revolve around whether the witness believes Dr Koprowski to be a madman or a genius 😉

  32. poroti

    [Boerwar

    It uranium mining is to become illegal, as per Greens policy measures, will the Olympic Dam Mine be closed by the Milne Government?

    Any party standing between $1.5 trillion and “principles” will be roadkill. End of.]

    Do you have a link? I will try to make a running tally of direct loss of economic activity as a result of Greens policy measures. $1.5 trillion would be a handy start.

  33. [but the reference to cahoots with the opposition threw me.]

    Sorry, ‘fess; that was probably the result of very bad wording on my behalf.

    I meant the Opposition being in cahoots with the media.

  34. [Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, July 23, 2012 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

    ….

    On the other hand I watched my best friend and his wife as they were on the brink for weeks as his four week old daughter contracted whooping cough and were told that it wasn’t likely that she would make it.]

    And that is what herd protection is about, protecting the young and week.

    I’m afraid I no longer suffer in silence, they get it with both barrels. If the kid had died it would have been another death that could be laid at the feet of these “maudite vache”.

  35. Lizzie, and everyone else involved in the Great Immunisation Debate:

    Chances are, TLBD, that it was the Salk immunisation – that was three shots in the upper arm (I remember them well).

    Smallpox and TB were both scrapes, Lizzie, and reinspection after a certain time to ensure that they had “taken”.

    As for things that one could get but are now immunised: OH had polio, mumps, whooping cough, chicken pox, measles, and rubella. Also hepatitis, but that was a work-related injury. And when he had his diptheria shot before we went to Europe in the late 1970s, he fainted and put his head through the wall of the ensuite bathroom at my parents’ house. ‘Twas an interesting exercise extracting him.

    Moi, 13 years younger: measles and rubella as a kid, and chicken pox at the age of 25 after he came down with shingles. But then, me mum – despite boarding school and then teaching – didn’t come down with chicken pox until she was 22 – and then only one lousy pock on her tummy. At least I excelled her with two!

    Now, enough of ailments, and back to serious business.

  38. PUFFFY! I promised you we’d go fishing that weekend, didn’t I?

    Maybe we could do PB dinner on the Friday night and Saturday afternoon fishing … what do you think?

  40. [How about if Julia wins in 2013, we all get together to one of the resorts for a long weekend party?]

    Oh, yeah. I will be up for that 😀

  42. Poroti, yes, the Greens are invincible armless and legless 😯

    Ahh Pegasus, bad luck on the byelection, better luck next time.

    😆

  44. Snappy,

    Leveson warrants the next popcorn. Rupe is in hasty retreat but the wolves are on his trail.

  45. Puff:

    The AVN push the envelope when they claim to be ‘pro choice’. They are clearly not pro-choice, and should be called to account on this front.

    In all seriousness they should be referred to as the Anti Vaccination Network. It would certainly be be a more accurate depiction of their stance.

  47. Spurr212

    I think Newspoll will show the alp going backwards and Monkey doing better on the PPM.

    I reckon it’s all going south.

    We’ll soon see who’s got a better grasp of reality on PB.

    Noone will be happier than me if I’m wrong.

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