UPDATE (23/7): The weekly Essential Research has Labor recover the point it lost last week to trail 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up two), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Further questions find 53% thinking it likely an Abbott government would introduce industrial relations laws similar to WorkChoices against 22% unlikely, and 37% thinking Australian workers would be worse off under Abbott against 32% better off. There is also a rather complex question on amendments to surveillance and intelligence-gathering laws.
UPDATE 2: Morgan face-to-face, conducted over the previous two weekends, has two-party preferred steady at 54-46 on previous-election preferences and down from 57.5-42.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated. On the primary vote, Labor is up 2% to 31.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 12%, with the Coalition steady on 43%.
The inner southern Sydney electorate of Reid covers the southern bank of the Parramatta River from Drummoyne west to Silverwater, extending further south to Burwood, Strathfield, and Auburn. The seat has never been in conservative hands since its creation in 1922, but it became winnable for the Liberals after being transformed by the redistribution before the 2010 election. This caused it to assume about 70% of the voters from its abolished eastern neighbour, Lowe, retaining only the area to the west of Homebush Bay Drive and Centenary Drive, from Silverwater south to Rookwood. It was originally proposed that the redrawn electorate bear the new name of McMahon, in honour of Sir William, but objections to the loss of the name Reid (so named after George Reid, titan of the state’s late colonial free trade forces and the nation’s fourth prime minister) led to the name of McMahon instead being accommodated by renaming the outer western Sydney seat of Prospect.
Lowe was created in 1949 from areas covered by the since-abolished Martin and Parkes (the latter bearing no relation to the current rural electorate of that name), and had a very slight notional Labor margin on its creation. Billy McMahon nonetheless gained the seat for the Liberal Party in 1949 and held it until the end of his career in 1983, withstanding particularly strong Labor challenges in 1961 and 1980. Labor’s Michael Maher won the by-election that followed McMahon’s retirement, and the seat thereafter changed hands with some regularity. Bob Woods won it for the Liberals in 1987, but was weakened by redistribution and then tipped out by a swing to Labor’s Mary Easson in 1993. Paul Zammit regained the seat for the Liberals in the 1996 landslide, but quit the party in protest against the Howard government’s airport policy in 1998. John Murphy was able recover it for Labor in 1998, having won preselection over the rather better credentialled Michael Costello, secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs. Murphy held parliamentary secretary positions from December 2001 until he stood down citing family illness in February 2009, but is perhaps better remembered for complaining in parliament about the size of a serving of beef stroganoff his wife had received from the parliamentary cafeteria.
Reid in its original incarnation covered Bankstown, but it shifted northwards when Blaxland was created in 1949. A member of Jack Lang’s breakaway state ALP branch held the seat from 1931 to 1940, and Lang himself was member for one term after a surprise win under the ALP (Non-Communist) banner in 1946. Lang unsuccessfully contested Blaxland in 1949, and Reid was recovered by Charles Morgan, the previous member whom Lang had unseated. Morgan lost preselection at the 1958 election to Tom Uren, a future minister in the Whitlam and Hawke governments, who was in turn succeeded by Left potentate Laurie Ferguson in 1990. When the redistribution was announced in 2009 it was thought a preselection showdown loomed between Murphy and Ferguson, but it soon became apparent Ferguson’s eyes were set on Fowler to the west, and he was eventually accommodated in its southern neighbour Werriwa. Murphy meanwhile retained preselection for Reid unopposed, and went on to have his margin slashed from 10.8% to 2.7% at the 2010 election as part of a backlash against Labor throughout Sydney.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Craig Laundy, heir to and general manager of his father’s “$500 million hotel empire”, who won an April 2012 preselection with backing from Tony Abbott. Laundy’s main rival for the preselection was Dai Le, an ABC Radio National producer and two-time state candidate for Cabramatta.
the BISONs have now been fed & groomed readied for battle – http://thefinnigans.blogspot.com.au/ – #auspol
Good job, too, Finns.
As for the rest of today’s ….
Three weeks into carbon pricing and they’re already back to what I mentioned a month ago:the polls! The Polls!.
If at first you don’t succeed, panic! FFS, difficult legislation never came easy.
Wonder if the reason the News journos are playing it a bit cool is that they have got some early mail on the Newspoll results being a bit more favourable to Labor. Perhaps Fairfax are still blasting away because they haven’t been tipped off yet.
The MSM are really just basing all their reportage on the last opinion poll and interpreting all that is being said or done in the light of those numbers – completely ignoring that many of the real actors in the drama are actually playing a much longer game.
To echo Confessions: We are very poorly served………..
Well, off for a sausage sizzle with Swannie. Wonder what the most popular topics of conversation will be?
Reid is my seat and the sitting member John Murphy lives a couple of doors up.
A nice bloke, although somewhat innocuous. Strikes me as a bit of a seat warmer more than anything.
Am already getting a mass of mail out stuff from the cheesy grinned Laundy; whom I don’t recall seeing around the area previously.
Bottom line is Murphy will be swept up in the tsunami if the polls don’t turn around before the election.
There is only thing keeping Julia Gillard in office – and that is the fear in the caucus that were she to stand down Kevin Rudd may make a comeback.
In their own ways, both individuals lack the credentials for leadership. Gillard lacks the support of the public and Rudd lacks the support of the Party. So Gillard is Pm because she happens not to be Kevin Rudd. This is practically her only political asset. It is not enough of an argument for her to hold on to office. Kevin Rudd on the other hand has been rejected by the caucus for precisely the opposite reason: he is Kevin Rudd and cannot escape his personal failures.
Labor need to find someone else and they need to find that person quickly.
why breifly
when gillard is going to win the election by default , if the liberals keep their current leader
The media has thrown everything and , still havent moved her
I thought Murphy has already announced he is going to retire at the next election?
[when gillard is going to win the election by default , if the liberals keep their current leader]
WISHFUL THINKING!
If Gillard is cruising to victory, why has Labor been behind in every poll for the last 1.5 years?
Don’t you think people factor in who the Opposition leader is when they say who they are going to vote for?
[Laundy’s main rival for the preselection was Dai Le, an ABC Radio National producer ]
Yet more connections between the msm and the Liberals. It seems every time William posts ‘seat of the week’ there’s a revelation of a former journalist or some such seeking preselection for the Liberals.
showson
When was the time the opinions polls were right in an federal election
when the current government was only in its 2nd term
last time i mean
briefly
Surely if there’s someone else in the current caucus it’s obvious by now?
If their light is hidden under a bushel that easily, then they’re not a future leader!
[showson
When was the time the opinions polls were right in an federal election
when the current government was only in its 2nd term]
No Government has had such bad polls this far out from an election and still won.
Some say that Keating won from behind, but he at least was getting a few polls that were statistically tied (within the margin of error). Gillard hasn’t had one of them since 2010.
Labor just needs to look at the trend of the last 2 federal governments before 2007
they would have coped opinion polls like this with over an year til an election
and they ended up serving 4 terms
The howard governemnt in its 2nd term when , it introduced the gst
[7
Meguire Bob
why breifly
when gillard is going to win the election by default , if the liberals keep their current leader
The media has thrown everything and , still havent moved her]
meguire, the point is that Gillard’s leadership has become irretrievable with the public. The electorate will put Labor out of office notwithstanding their dislike for Abbott. He is an absolutely unworthy character, but this will make no difference. Labor face a thrashing that will exceed 96, 77, 75 or 66 or even 32.
Perhaps there is nothing to be done about this and that the wisest course of action is to wait for the election and for obliteration. Perhaps all the harm was done too long ago – on asylum-seekers, on the CPRS and its successor policies, on mishandled resource taxation, on the deal with the Greens. Perhaps these circumstances mean defeat cannot be avoided. But it is just silly to suppose that this does not await Labor.
In the decisive Senate votes for the CPRS in 2009, Minchin and his allies were in a similar position as Labor now find themselves. They were miles behind in the polls and faced electoral destruction. But they could see a way out. If Rudd could be defeated in the Senate, he would face the choice – to live up to his inflated rhetoric and go for a double dissolution, or be left with nothing. To carry this out, Minchin and the others had to challenge and defeat Turnbull. They did it. They did not recoil from the logic simply because it was difficult to carry out.
Ejecting Turnbull and defeating Rudd completely changed the political dynamics and by early 2010, Rudd was effectively finished. Of course, it helped Minchin and Abbott that the Greens played into their hands then just as they are doing now.
Labor need to think of how they can change the political dynamics in a similar way. They need to find a way to defeat the Liberals on boats. They need to find a way to re-cast the politics of climate change. They need to change their leadership. They need to put the focus on the vacuous populism of the Liberals and they need to make Abbott’s unpopularity work to unsettle his leadership.
Then they can win.
But they cannot win without changing the remorseless logic of the current situation.
Made a series of posts on the last thread without realising we had a new thread… so here they are – all references to previous thread of course.
Let’s see if I have this right: we have two lists.
List A:
1. The polls won’t improve / Labor won’t win the next election unless Julia is replaced
2. Julia is bad and must be replaced if the polls are to improve / Labor is to win the next election
3. Julia is pretty good but someone else is better and she must be replaced if the polls are to improve / Labor is to win the next election
List B:
a. Kevin Rudd
b. a specific non-Kevin Rudd
c. anybody else
d. Tony Abbott.
Assorted bludgers pick an item from each list and Voilà!
Have I missed anything?
Now, would said assorted, if they are able, like to pick another topic or just piss off?
I’m sure Toby has a spot just for you http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFGrQMD6Uqc
Then we have the woe is me Hanrahans with their liberal supplies of sackcloth and ashes.
Flipper Boy
I’ve got another BISON!!!
Michelle Jenneke is Australian.
http://sports.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474981486595
Ducky:
There is a third list: those who think a unified party, united behind the current leader, focused on its achievements and its vision for a third term will beat an Abbott-led coalition hands down.
Briefly @ 17
Its not the liberal / national partys or Abbott which is doing the damage
Its the Media who is the real opposition
Take them out of the picture its over for abbott and co
[Labor just needs to look at the trend of the last 2 federal governments before 2007
they would have coped opinion polls like this with over an year til an election
and they ended up serving 4 terms]
Wrong. The polls weren’t as bad as what they have been for Gillard Labor.
[But one of the downsides for the PM participating in a virtual chatroom was some of crude and offensive remarks posted on the YouTube site.
Internet trolls dominated what was meant to be an interactive discussion forum, however Fairfax readers did add to the debate through comments on its mastheads’ homepages.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/googlehangout-gay-marriage-should-go-to-a-conscience-vote-20120721-22gh6.html#ixzz21E8KqpMa
Those internet trolls are everywhere it would seem.
[13
zoomster
Posted Saturday, July 21, 2012 at 1:55 pm | Permalink
briefly
Surely if there’s someone else in the current caucus it’s obvious by now?
If their light is hidden under a bushel that easily, then they’re not a future leader!]
Who in August 2009 would have tipped Tony Abbott to lead the Liberals to within a few inches of victory? It is time the Labor caucus looked into their hearts and decided if they are up to fighting the Liberals. If they look to the past (to Rudd) or do nothing (and stick with Gillard) then they will be declaring they do not believe they can win and that nothing they do will make any difference. By this admission, they will also be saying to voters, “Go ahead, throw us out. We don’t believe in ourselves, and nor should you.”
[I thought Murphy has already announced he is going to retire at the next election?]
No, I don’t believe so.
Diog. you dirty old man.
[22
Meguire Bob
Posted Saturday, July 21, 2012 at 2:09 pm | Permalink
Briefly @ 17
Its not the liberal / national partys or Abbott which is doing the damage
Its the Media who is the real opposition
Take them out of the picture its over for abbott and co]
How do you propose to take the media out of the picture? Since this obviously cannot be done, Labor have to carry out their mission in spite of the media! This takes better, smarter, more vigorous and more talented leadership than we have seen so far from Gillard, or, before her, from Rudd.
If Labor start to think they will always be the victims of the media, then they might as well give up politics entirely.
briefly
You’re back to the ‘we must do something. This is something. Let’s do it.” argument.
Apparently NOT throwing Gillard out is an admission of defeat. Surely it’s just as logical to say that throwing Gillard out is an admission of defeat, too.
easy briefly
bring in the new media laws
fess,
I was thinking more of the Gilbert and Sullivan type lists.
Briefly
do you think the media who agenda is to get their man abbott to be prime minister
really going to let up on labor , even if peter Garrett became pm the media would not change one darn bit
They will continue to spread lies and propaganda, and continue to protect abbott and the coalition
mm
Me and about 5 million others.
Get a decent canditate for abbott and wyatt roys seat,lets see what the media does.
diog.
and me too 😉
When will people finally wake up and stop the nonsense of its not the media,
OF COURSE ITS THE MEDIA
it will not let labor have clean fight of getting his message though on polices
This list http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A45xqLHccRo
its
[It is time the Labor caucus looked into their hearts and decided if they are up to fighting the Liberals.]
I have been saying this since I first identified Rudd actively destabilising. Putting a unified, adult face to the public rather than all this self-indulgent pot stirring and backgrounding the media is the best way to show us they are up to fighting the Liberals.
[If they look to the past (to Rudd) or do nothing (and stick with Gillard) then they will be declaring they do not believe they can win ]
Changing leaders in response to the polling is the first signal to the electorate that the party doesn’t believe it can win. Uniting behind the leadership, and putting all the internal squabbles aside and defending its record in govt OTOH clearly tells the public the party is serious about winning the next election.
Ducky:
Understood.
Schnappi
Why do you mention Wyatt Roy’s seat?
Well, this should make the fight even more interesting. 😉
http://www.smh.com.au/national/democrats-comeback-inspired-by-inflexible-greens-20120720-22f4q.html
[Mr Greig said the party had been inspired to attempt a comeback at the next federal election, due by October 2013, and would seek to put up a full Senate ticket.
“Over the last couple of years … every now and then people have come up to me and said ‘I miss the Democrats, I’d like to see them back’ but I’ve never had so many people say that to me in the last few months,” Mr Greig, who was an Australian Democrats senator between 1999-2005, said.]
[Why do you mention Wyatt Roy’s seat?]
Because he is too young inexperienced and asks silly questions!.
victoria
[Schnappi
Why do you mention Wyatt Roy’s seat?]
Dirty tricks last time,should be able to get the seat back with local issues,with good candidate
1934pd
Makes perfect sense. 😀
I’m cooking beef and Guiness pies, if any of you want to drop around for a feed later.
Schnappi
I figured you may have been referring to some recent dirty tricks.
As you were 😀
victoria
Think you were thinking about strawberries
lizzie:
Interesting. At the very least they should be able to get some traction with the ‘inflexible Greens’ stuff.
Schnappi
😀