UPDATE (23/7): The weekly Essential Research has Labor recover the point it lost last week to trail 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up two), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Further questions find 53% thinking it “likely” an Abbott government would introduce industrial relations laws similar to WorkChoices against 22% unlikely, and 37% thinking “Australian workers” would be worse off under Abbott against 32% better off. There is also a rather complex question on amendments to surveillance and intelligence-gathering laws.
UPDATE 2: Morgan face-to-face, conducted over the previous two weekends, has two-party preferred steady at 54-46 on previous-election preferences and down from 57.5-42.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated. On the primary vote, Labor is up 2% to 31.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 12%, with the Coalition steady on 43%.
The inner southern Sydney electorate of Reid covers the southern bank of the Parramatta River from Drummoyne west to Silverwater, extending further south to Burwood, Strathfield, and Auburn. The seat has never been in conservative hands since its creation in 1922, but it became winnable for the Liberals after being transformed by the redistribution before the 2010 election. This caused it to assume about 70% of the voters from its abolished eastern neighbour, Lowe, retaining only the area to the west of Homebush Bay Drive and Centenary Drive, from Silverwater south to Rookwood. It was originally proposed that the redrawn electorate bear the new name of McMahon, in honour of Sir William, but objections to the loss of the name Reid (so named after George Reid, titan of the state’s late colonial free trade forces and the nation’s fourth prime minister) led to the name of McMahon instead being accommodated by renaming the outer western Sydney seat of Prospect.
Lowe was created in 1949 from areas covered by the since-abolished Martin and Parkes (the latter bearing no relation to the current rural electorate of that name), and had a very slight notional Labor margin on its creation. Billy McMahon nonetheless gained the seat for the Liberal Party in 1949 and held it until the end of his career in 1983, withstanding particularly strong Labor challenges in 1961 and 1980. Labor’s Michael Maher won the by-election that followed McMahon’s retirement, and the seat thereafter changed hands with some regularity. Bob Woods won it for the Liberals in 1987, but was weakened by redistribution and then tipped out by a swing to Labor’s Mary Easson in 1993. Paul Zammit regained the seat for the Liberals in the 1996 landslide, but quit the party in protest against the Howard government’s airport policy in 1998. John Murphy was able recover it for Labor in 1998, having won preselection over the rather better credentialled Michael Costello, secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs. Murphy held parliamentary secretary positions from December 2001 until he stood down citing family illness in February 2009, but is perhaps better remembered for complaining in parliament about the size of a serving of beef stroganoff his wife had received from the parliamentary cafeteria.
Reid in its original incarnation covered Bankstown, but it shifted northwards when Blaxland was created in 1949. A member of Jack Lang’s breakaway state ALP branch held the seat from 1931 to 1940, and Lang himself was member for one term after a surprise win under the ALP (Non-Communist) banner in 1946. Lang unsuccessfully contested Blaxland in 1949, and Reid was recovered by Charles Morgan, the previous member whom Lang had unseated. Morgan lost preselection at the 1958 election to Tom Uren, a future minister in the Whitlam and Hawke governments, who was in turn succeeded by Left potentate Laurie Ferguson in 1990. When the redistribution was announced in 2009 it was thought a preselection showdown loomed between Murphy and Ferguson, but it soon became apparent Ferguson’s eyes were set on Fowler to the west, and he was eventually accommodated in its southern neighbour Werriwa. Murphy meanwhile retained preselection for Reid unopposed, and went on to have his margin slashed from 10.8% to 2.7% at the 2010 election as part of a backlash against Labor throughout Sydney.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Craig Laundy, heir to and general manager of his father’s “$500 million hotel empire”, who won an April 2012 preselection with backing from Tony Abbott. Laundy’s main rival for the preselection was Dai Le, an ABC Radio National producer and two-time state candidate for Cabramatta.
A bit of nostalgia:
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2002/10/20/1034561389454.html
[The Greens could hold the balance of power in the Victorian Parliament after the next state election if support for the party continued to grow, a senior party member said yesterday.]
[It is believed the Greens’ internal polling, along with analyses of past election results, point to potential wins in Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote]
2002, after the federal by election in Cunningham…
[1. It’s doubtful that the Libs would have crossed the floor if they’d known it would make a difference.]
I agree with this.
[2. Rudd did not want us to vote for the CPRS. That was an important consideration in the design of the scheme. Another important design consideration was that most of the Liberals should not vote for it either. Had Turnbull not been rolled, he might have got that outcome.]
This is wrong. If Turnbull won the leadership ballot against Abbott most Liberals would’ve voted FOR the amended CPRS and it would’ve passed. I accept that some would’ve still voted against it, like Cory Bernardi.
And we now would have a market price ETS.
Well the goal is always to win as many seats as possible. I concede someone else may win more votes this time, but the problem is that long term it may cost votes and mean longer out of government.
[92
confessions
You are calling for Labor to unite behind a failed and flawed leader
I think that’s a highly subjective view, to be honest.]
It is not subjective. It is a wholly valid conclusion drawn from the empirical evidence of innumerable polls carried out over a sustained period.
zoomster @ 88
Untested, but also unlikely if he had gone at it full steam ahead.
Fran #97
Am i reading you correctly when you say that had the Government implement the Garnaut Report in full then the Greens would have voted in favor?
bemused
You just don’t see anything past Rudd as hero.
And I agree with much of Fran Barlow’s post @97
[Rolling Gillard now would fix no problem that the ALP needs to fix. On the contrary, all it would do would be to underline them. Rudd would have to explain as Gillard did, why a party that had rejected him so decisively earlier this year, apparently because he was seen by his own close colleagues as some sort of psychopath who wanted to make up policy as he went along, was now embracing him. ]
I’m sorry, there’s no point in this conversation.
[It is a wholly valid conclusion drawn from the empirical evidence of innumerable polls carried out over a sustained period.]
Only qualitative methodology could accurately indicate voter sentiment in regard to the factors you mentioned.
I haven’t seen any of this type of research published, which is not to say it doesn’t exist.
Carey
[I don’t like when people of other side of this debate try to claim a moral or ethical monopoly.]
I’m not doing either of those.
I think that Labor is in a bad place and now it is best to stick with what we’ve got.
That the Libs can be trashed in one go is about the best that can be done now.
Labor should be careful about who they waste in a reargaurd action.
[I’m not doing either of those.
I think that Labor is in a bad place and now it is best to stick with what we’ve got.
That the Libs can be trashed in one go is about the best that can be done now.
Labor should be careful about who they waste in a reargaurd action.]
I didn’t say you were doing it. I have just observed a trend lately of people claiming that X is self-serving and power-hungry, whereas Y is selfless and only has the interests of the party and the country at heart
[Admitting to a mistake’ will just feed into the prejudice. Won’t do any good.
It will if the mistake is seen to be corrected.]
Oh yes and that worked wonderfully with the pink batts didn’t it, ‘Um look we’re sorry that peter burnt down all those houses and killed the four installers, we stuffed up’.
What do you propose a more sincere apology.
“Look, um ah, we’re sorry we stuffed the mining tax and the carbon tax and ah inflicted bob browns deliberately barren bitch on you, but we have um got it right this time, truly we have.”
that should send the primary vote soaring, why haven’t they done this sooner???
Beautiful sunny day in Melbourne and the Hawks are doing very well against the Magpies
Yay!
IS THIS BLOG PERMEATE FREE?
[FB……Rolling Gillard now would fix no problem that the ALP needs to fix. On the contrary, all it would do would be to underline them. Rudd would have to explain as Gillard did, why a party that had rejected him so decisively earlier this year, apparently because he was seen by his own close colleagues as some sort of psychopath who wanted to make up policy as he went along, was now embracing him.
Anyone who thinks that the currently hostile media would fall all over the returned Rudd and let him escape explaining how he could work with most of the caucus, or let those who so publicly bollocked him evade explaining why they’d like him to be returned in 2013 and how he could last until 2016 is really having a laugh.]
I am not advocating a return to Rudd. He is even worse than Gillard. All of this is reminding me of an old maxim of mine: there is a default position in Australian politics, and that is we should expect to be governed by Liberals. Unless the forces of justice, virtue, reason and conscious optimism can get their act together and keep it that way, they will be defeated by the deadening negativity, deceits and cynicism of the right.
The centre left is divided on everything: leadership, policy, strategy, organization and even primary affiliation. We face the worst defeat in a century. If things really go to pieces after the coming election, it may turn out that this Labor Government is the last we will see for a generation. I cannot say I am really enjoying it all that much. The whole thing is a shambles.
castle
The fibs and the msm are chomping at the bit for a leadership change.
lizzie @ 107
Try ‘capable but flawed leader’. That is closer to the mark.
However, unlike Gillard, his flaws don’t make him electorally unpopular and are manageable.
[Beautiful sunny day in Melbourne and the Hawks are doing very well against the Magpies]
And the Crows against West Coast.
No luck last night with our Telstra Small Business Awards final.
BK:
Drats. Had my fingers crossed for your company.
[and are manageable.]
Not by his Caucas. If that was so it would have been done.
[Well the goal is always to win as many seats as possible. I concede someone else may win more votes this time, but the problem is that long term it may cost votes and mean longer out of government.]
You don’t concede a general election just cos you think it may make it easier to win another one down the track.
It is impossible to predict what the issues of a future election will be.
What you do is you set yourself up the best you can to win the next election you face.
I am just incredulous that any objective observer would think that that means having Gillard as leader.
Look what the Coalition did in 2007! The Coalition was behind in every poll from late December 2006 onwards, but they just let Howard take them to defeat.
Is Labor going to stupidly do the same, even though Gillard’s run of bad polls is already something like 8 months longer than that endured by the Coalition?
T’would seem to me, that the longer JG remains PM, the more people she is making fools of, how wrong their opinions are and how over-inflated their egos.
By rights she should have been “gorn” months and months ago. If she is the problem why is she still there?
What are all these bayers for blood going to say come the election in 2013 and she is still PM? She sort of stayed in the job due to good luck?
Politics is a strange business and it could very well be the nervous nellies, come November -December, feel a change might be on. I don’t discount this.
However, if the PM sees it through the next election, come victory or defeat, she will have had the strength to hold Labor together against all the odds – including six months with a hostile senate, the constant attack of weak opposition and a rabid media, and against the calls from so-called Labor supporters – many of whom live on this blog – who are still waiting for the White Knight to ‘save’ Labor. This, I suppose is St Kev at the moment, though there are others with white armour too I gather.
A loss by Labor come 2013 under a unified party and supported leader is one thing. A loss under some re-jigged leader, some fill in or some opportunist is something else again.
If Labor supporters believe the policies currently offered by Labor are essentially to their liking, what difference does the leader make?
If it is the policies that are wrong, the change merchants need to put their cards on the table and let us know which policies need changing
Be it Rudd, Shorten, Combet, Smith, Roxon or Crean – a mixed bag of able “has beens”, and “yet to comes”, what changes should they make to ensure Labor has winning policies come 2013?
There’s the challenge.
I am yet to be convinced any of the named individuals above can come up with anything any better.
If Labor is proud of the BISONS then what is to change?
Labor supporters can’t have it both ways in my view.
Mexicanbeemer:
[Am i reading you correctly when you say that had the Government implement the Garnaut Report in full then the Greens would have voted in favor?]
I’m in no doubt we would have. It was when Garnaut was reduced by Penny Wong to the status of mere “input” that we began to worry about what was afoot.
castle @ 111
Show me that quote or stop making stuff up.
That tactic was poorly handled and I doubt we will see any leader repeat it.
confessions
This is the company http://www.manufacturingfocus.com.au/
[Gillard’s leadership is the cause of Labor’s poor standing, rather than the reverse. It follows that fixing the leadership – among other things – will change Labor’s standing.]
Worth a shot, all those polls showing people opposed to the carbon price and MRRT, that the libs are better economic managers and better on health should then reverse like the scenes in 1984.
the abc will start to call it a carbon price instead of carbon tax
news ltd papers will correctly report the effects of the carbon price on price increases
the afr will highlight the benefits of the mrrt
and channel 10 will drop the project in favour of a more accurate breakfast service.
bolt will stay as bolt, some things never change no matter what happens.
[Malcolm Farnsworth @mfarnsworth
Text and audio of Abbott’s foreign policy speech to the Heritage Foundation in Washington DC: http://auspol.info/Lr68aA ]
Given that JBishop is responsible for coalition foreign policy, I dread to think what things he might’ve said!
Thanks BK.
BK
Never mind about the awards. Being nominated is a great achievement!
Thank you Fran
[The fibs and the msm are chomping at the bit for a leadership change.]
anything to keep finns bisons out of the news vic
victoria @ 115
No, they are reporting the growing despair within caucus and embellishing it a bit as they always do.
castle
And pigs will fly
BK @ 124
Your company seems really interesting and the sort Australia needs more of.
I will read all of the site when I have time.
[That tactic was poorly handled and I doubt we will see any leader repeat it.]
no, of course we won’t,
or the poorly handled advertising war with the mining companies, we wouldn’t see that again, learnt my lesson
or the poorly handled negotiations with the greens, nup nup won’t happen, definitely, won’t, i promise, cross my heart, never again.
or the poorly handled relations with cabinet and caucus – look if those fuckers don’t want, i’m sorry i’m sorry, um no, cabinet caucus, yes won’t happen again definite never never never.
A question with regard to the shooting in Colorado of 12+ people dead plus dozens injured. As American hospitals only treat patients who can afford to pay, will only those injured people who have health insurance have the bullets dug out of them or will all injured be treated regardless of their health insurance status?
BK,
Bad luck, but congratulations on the nomination, as Vic said.
BTW, I love the quotation on the “About Us” page…
briefly #114
Gee if Hockeys GST comments aren’t a gift for the ALP I don’t know what are….
It’s an indication of the dire state the conservative bean counters are in trying to manage Abbotts brain fart policies
The Hawks are on fire!!
[The Hawks are on fire!!]
And Collingwood are SINGED!!
billie
Patients are treated for emergency situations such as this
@billie 135
I’ve been wondering that myself. A look at a FAQ page tells me that the USA has an Emergency Medical Treatment act that means they must treat anyone with life threatening injuries.
However, they can send you a bill afterwards, and they would expect it to be paid, otherwise it’s a black mark on their credit rating.
[By rights she should have been “gorn” months and months ago. If she is the problem why is she still there?]
If this was a regular majority government then she would’ve been ‘gorn’ months ago.
The only thing that has kept her in the job this long is a perception that a leadership change would result in an election.
But the problem for Gillard is the longer she stays as leader this becomes less and less of an issue because there will need to be an election anyway, so if a leadership change means an election happens in the first half of next year rather than in the second half then that doesn’t make much of a difference.
[The Hawks are on fire!!]
Dial 000
Billie I am quite sure the American Health system will provide the necessary health care
[Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
Opinion piece on our Deputy PM… RT @australian Swan a repeat offender in art of political backflip | The Australian http://bit.ly/O3aJnJ
Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
Piece on the white noise… RT @australian Backbench push for survival fuels leadership noise | The Australian http://bit.ly/PnVAe5 ]
PvO doing his best to add fuel to flames. (Pieces behind wall)
castle @ 134
What a champion of hyperbole you are!
And despite all of that he polled far better than Gillard has except for a very brief ‘honeymoon’ period.
bemused,
at what stage during the next 15 months will you start supporting the Gillard led ALP?
Rex Douglas @ 137
I agree with you on that.
The ALP should go in really hard on that. A ‘Great Big Tax’ that hits everyone and which they are threatening to make even BIGGER!!!
lizzie #145
standard procedure on Newspoll weekend – we all now know how the cycle of Newspoll manipulation goes
[No luck last night with our Telstra Small Business Awards final.]
BK – you are winners anyway with just making the finals. Well done.