UPDATE (23/7): The weekly Essential Research has Labor recover the point it lost last week to trail 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up two), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Further questions find 53% thinking it “likely” an Abbott government would introduce industrial relations laws similar to WorkChoices against 22% unlikely, and 37% thinking “Australian workers” would be worse off under Abbott against 32% better off. There is also a rather complex question on amendments to surveillance and intelligence-gathering laws.
UPDATE 2: Morgan face-to-face, conducted over the previous two weekends, has two-party preferred steady at 54-46 on previous-election preferences and down from 57.5-42.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated. On the primary vote, Labor is up 2% to 31.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 12%, with the Coalition steady on 43%.
The inner southern Sydney electorate of Reid covers the southern bank of the Parramatta River from Drummoyne west to Silverwater, extending further south to Burwood, Strathfield, and Auburn. The seat has never been in conservative hands since its creation in 1922, but it became winnable for the Liberals after being transformed by the redistribution before the 2010 election. This caused it to assume about 70% of the voters from its abolished eastern neighbour, Lowe, retaining only the area to the west of Homebush Bay Drive and Centenary Drive, from Silverwater south to Rookwood. It was originally proposed that the redrawn electorate bear the new name of McMahon, in honour of Sir William, but objections to the loss of the name Reid (so named after George Reid, titan of the state’s late colonial free trade forces and the nation’s fourth prime minister) led to the name of McMahon instead being accommodated by renaming the outer western Sydney seat of Prospect.
Lowe was created in 1949 from areas covered by the since-abolished Martin and Parkes (the latter bearing no relation to the current rural electorate of that name), and had a very slight notional Labor margin on its creation. Billy McMahon nonetheless gained the seat for the Liberal Party in 1949 and held it until the end of his career in 1983, withstanding particularly strong Labor challenges in 1961 and 1980. Labor’s Michael Maher won the by-election that followed McMahon’s retirement, and the seat thereafter changed hands with some regularity. Bob Woods won it for the Liberals in 1987, but was weakened by redistribution and then tipped out by a swing to Labor’s Mary Easson in 1993. Paul Zammit regained the seat for the Liberals in the 1996 landslide, but quit the party in protest against the Howard government’s airport policy in 1998. John Murphy was able recover it for Labor in 1998, having won preselection over the rather better credentialled Michael Costello, secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs. Murphy held parliamentary secretary positions from December 2001 until he stood down citing family illness in February 2009, but is perhaps better remembered for complaining in parliament about the size of a serving of beef stroganoff his wife had received from the parliamentary cafeteria.
Reid in its original incarnation covered Bankstown, but it shifted northwards when Blaxland was created in 1949. A member of Jack Lang’s breakaway state ALP branch held the seat from 1931 to 1940, and Lang himself was member for one term after a surprise win under the ALP (Non-Communist) banner in 1946. Lang unsuccessfully contested Blaxland in 1949, and Reid was recovered by Charles Morgan, the previous member whom Lang had unseated. Morgan lost preselection at the 1958 election to Tom Uren, a future minister in the Whitlam and Hawke governments, who was in turn succeeded by Left potentate Laurie Ferguson in 1990. When the redistribution was announced in 2009 it was thought a preselection showdown loomed between Murphy and Ferguson, but it soon became apparent Ferguson’s eyes were set on Fowler to the west, and he was eventually accommodated in its southern neighbour Werriwa. Murphy meanwhile retained preselection for Reid unopposed, and went on to have his margin slashed from 10.8% to 2.7% at the 2010 election as part of a backlash against Labor throughout Sydney.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Craig Laundy, heir to and general manager of his father’s “$500 million hotel empire”, who won an April 2012 preselection with backing from Tony Abbott. Laundy’s main rival for the preselection was Dai Le, an ABC Radio National producer and two-time state candidate for Cabramatta.
Jake
[I’m cooking beef and Guiness pies, if any of you want to drop around for a feed later]
Just had homemade curried chicken and potato pie.
Find easier to make pies topped with mashed potato,than pastry,then into freezer
Schnappi,
[Just had homemade curried chicken and potato pie.]
Yum.
Wondering if there’s some reliable source for early indications in Melbourne by-election?
[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 3m
Looking at jobs data; only 2 governments since 1972 have never had unemployment rate above 6% in their tenure – Rudd/Gillard and Whitlam]
Hahahaha … I just love this description of Abbott as PM.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4144264.html
[ Latika Bourke @latikambourke 51s
Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey wants the states to argue for an expanded GST but Christopher Pyne says ‘they will get a deaf ear in Canberra.’]
View details ·
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 3m
Christopher Pyne ‘there’s absolutely no possibility of a future Coalition Government making any changes to the goods and services tax.’]
View details ·
confessions @ 49
Yes, sounds like a plan. Esp. when there may be quite a percentage who want to park their vote in neutral, so to speak.
The flu has caused 10 deaths in WA alone this season.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/14286782/flu-outbreak-kills-10/
And the kids go back to school next week, meaning possibly more children contracting the disease.
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 1m
So @JoeHockey what’s the point of encouraging the states to make a case for expanded GST if the Liberals have deaf ears on the issue?
View details]
victoria:
Another issue on which the Liberals are potentially divided?
Very interesting.
For what it’s worth, I think dumping Rudd was a mistake in the first place. Gillard is a very good PM, and I admire her greatly, but she doesn’t have the presentation skills to be popular. No number of BISONs are likely to outweigh that.
That being said, I think they should keep her. Any change now will just give the Libs a massive stick with which to beat the ALP for the next 10 years. The line will be how can you vote for these clowns when you can’t be sure what sort of leadership freak show there will be if things get tough. As a meme it will work.
Better to keep Gillard, fight like buggery to get as close as possible next election, then be prepared to defend to the death the record of this government, something that shouldn’t be too hard with the broken promises or incompetence that will almost certainly be the hallmarks of an Abbott government.
confessions
There are so many divisions within the fibs, but they are managing to hold their collective shit so far
Since when has Chrissie been in charge of the Coalition’s finance policy (if there is one)?
No BK yet? Must’ve been a good night.
[30
Meguire Bob
Posted Saturday, July 21, 2012 at 2:17 pm | Permalink
easy briefly
bring in the new media laws]
MB, this is grasping at straws. Nothing would be more likely to outrage the media than being told what or how they could report political affairs.
The only media reform that is likely to have any effect is to break up the commercial power of the monopolies – force disinvestment and restrict market share in order to determine high diversity of ownership. This would increase competition for readers/viewers/subscribers, drive down advertising costs and encourage all kinds of new media.
Legislating to control opinion, however, is the North Koren option and will not work!!!
[So @JoeHockey what’s the point of encouraging the states to make a case for expanded GST if the Liberals have deaf ears on the issue?]
because hockey says its a state tax and the govt will just be doing what the states want.
Gorilla
Sometimes I believe the ALP have a death wish
Gorilla
[Any change now will just give the Libs a massive stick with which to beat the ALP for the next 10 years. The line will be how can you vote for these clowns when you can’t be sure what sort of leadership freak show there will be if things get tough.]
Well said.
confessions
Been checking in to see how BK went. Still no word
[Better to keep Gillard, fight like buggery to get as close as possible next election, then be prepared to defend to the death the record of this government, ]
too right gorilla, toss gillard and you are admitting the policies were a failure, rudd was tossed because he could not implement policies
[Mr Greig said the party had been inspired to attempt a comeback at the next federal election, due by October 2013, and would seek to put up a full Senate ticket.
“Over the last couple of years … every now and then people have come up to me and said ‘I miss the Democrats, I’d like to see them back’ but I’ve never had so many people say that to me in the last few months,]
I’d like to see them come back lizzie, be interesting though to see how they preference.
[The howard governemnt in its 2nd term when , it introduced the gst]
Wrong. It’s polls weren’t as bad for as long.
Well said Gorilla.
Once again the rabble that pases for the shdow cabinet are contradictng one another and as usual the msm are ignoring the chaos.
Hockey is saying the states will have to make the case for an expanded GST, Whynie Pynie is saying if they do as Sloppy says their case will get a deaf ear in Canberra.
No matter who says what one thing is certain – the next Coalition government, whenever that may be, (and let’s hope it’s decades away) will increase the GST and will extend it to cover fresh food.
Libtika actually said something sensible here –
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke
Govt asks ‘If Mr Hockey and the Coalition had no plans to increase the GST, why is he egging on his Lib Premier mates to make the argument?’]
And
[So @JoeHockey what’s the point of encouraging the states to make a case for expanded GST if the Liberals have deaf ears on the issue?]
TLBD
[Since when has Chrissie been in charge of the Coalition’s finance policy (if there is one)?]
Well as he said lewis does not have to answer to a court,seems he has brandis job in mind
he knows nothing about his own portfolio,so aiming for what others have.
briefly @ 64
Try thinking Canada instead of North Korea.
Canada apparently has effective media regulation prohibiting the broadcasting of lies.
Our own Broadcasting Codes of Conduct would, if given teeth and the force of law, do the job.
confessions
the media refuses to report on the liberal party
why its looks like they are holding it together which is clearly false
The media is too gutless to go against tier man abbott
Actually I think Rudd was pretty good too, and was got rid of for the wrong reasons. But you can’t change the past.
Abbott has shown he has no hold or even has the capability of making the liberals look close
again it comes down to the media reporting
why briefly and other can not understand
A very unfortunate tweet by the NRA given the cinema shooting:
http://thefuturebuzz.com/2012/07/20/pay-attention-to-news/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed:+TheFutureBuzz+%28The+Future+Buzz%29
lizzie @ 67
Yep! Hold the present course and full steam ahead straight at that iceberg.
Gorilla @ 78
No, but you can admit mistakes and set them right,
[39
confessions
Changing leaders in response to the polling is the first signal to the electorate that the party doesn’t believe it can win. Uniting behind the leadership, and putting all the internal squabbles aside and defending its record in govt OTOH clearly tells the public the party is serious about winning the next election.]
confessions, ordinarily I would agree with you. However, the it is important to separate cause from effect. Gillard’s leadership is the cause of Labor’s poor standing, rather than the reverse. It follows that fixing the leadership – among other things – will change Labor’s standing.
You are calling for Labor to unite behind a failed and flawed leader – behind someone the public does not trust and neither likes nor respects. In part this reflects the destructive nature of political competition. But it also reflects the consequences of the things that Gillard has said and done of her own volition. Like Rudd before her, her misfortunes are of her own making. While she very clearly has shown she had ambitions to lead, she has equally clearly shown she does not have mettle to match them.
This is not merely about style – though this is disheartening in its own way. It is about the substance of the decisions she has made.
[To imagine [Abbott’s] prime ministership is to imagine a weird combination of BA Santamaria, Richard Nixon and Tarzan running the country.]
Essentially it would be like if talk radio hosts, Liberal hack trolls and that crotchety old relative you have who still embarrasses everyone by ranting about Whitlam and “his commies” actually had the power to affect a nation’s security, prosperity and laws.
bemused
‘Admitting to a mistake’ will just feed into the prejudice. Won’t do any good.
A bad place to read today:
– A poster describing other people as ‘hating Rudd’ – me more feeling sorry for him with his many abilities and his failure to accept that some of his ideas are not practical and not able to be done; and
– A poster descibing JG as ‘self serving’.
If a leadership change is something Caucas does I hope that someone like Shorten is the bunney.
[- A poster descibing JG as ‘self serving’.]
No more self-serving than any potential leader praised around here.
Gorilla @ 60
[Better to keep Gillard, fight like buggery to get as close as possible next election, then be prepared to defend to the death the record of this government, something that shouldn’t be too hard with the broken promises or incompetence that will almost certainly be the hallmarks of an Abbott government.]
This makes the most sense to me as an ALP tragic. In contrast we have the Ruddista with the bizzare goal of resurrecting a broken former PM as the new “Saviour” and effectively damaging the Party and rediucing it to a laughing stock for the next decade.
[Yep! Hold the present course and full steam ahead straight at that iceberg.]
Actually, bemused, if the Captain of the Titanic had done that, the ship would probably have been OK.
Rather that regulate the media it might be better to fund alternative media. Regulation is difficult to enforce
1.The ABC need s first to get back on charter. They must NEVER pay rival media orgs or have rivals on programs simply because it reduces diversity.
2. One option might be to pay the salaries of say 50 freelance journalists, camera persons and even cartoonist who can on sell stories to various independent organisations. This way the highest cost of independent media are covered without “picking winners.” The selected journos would need tight performance criteria.
The local rag in a country town could purchase stories at a reasonable set cost from the journo or some central clearing house. Suddenly the Bungendore Herald, Joes new high quality blog, or a community TV station has access to international stories or top political analysis without the high cost and risk.
Carey
[No more self-serving than any potential leader praised around here.]
Is there an opinion behind that?
Lol zoomster!
I am kind of resigned to the ALP losing the next election, but while an Abbott government worries me, 10 years of an Abbott government scares the crap out of me.
Once you get rid of the leader it is hard to claim any positive legacy out of that time in government. Ever hear the ALP mention the apology? They only get away with getting rid of work choices because Gillard was the minister.
[You are calling for Labor to unite behind a failed and flawed leader]
I think that’s a highly subjective view, to be honest.
[While she very clearly has shown she had ambitions to lead, she has equally clearly shown she does not have mettle to match them.
This is not merely about style]
I think JG has absolutely shown she has the mettle, and I find your analogy with style to be strange. She’s had all manner of vitriolic abuse hurled at her, and she’s still standing, still able to laugh it all off, while continuing to deliver legislative results for the country.
These are actually qualities I admire in MPs. But each to their own, I suppose.
What exactly is the incentive for the States to lobby for a raised GST?
Scenarios:
1. The States lobby for a raised GST. The Feds raise the GST, but use the increase to fund their own expenditure.
2. The States lobby for a raised GST. The Feds raise it, pass it all on but wear the blame for increasing taxes.
3. The States lobby for a raised GST. The Feds raise it, pass it all on, and drop the amount of grant money allocated to the States as a result.
Only 2. if likely to appeal to any State government and it holds no attraction whatsoever for a Federal government, particularly one which has made a big deal about not raising taxes without a mandate.
[60
Gorilla
For what it’s worth, I think dumping Rudd was a mistake in the first place. Gillard is a very good PM, and I admire her greatly, but she doesn’t have the presentation skills to be popular. No number of BISONs are likely to outweigh that.
That being said, I think they should keep her. Any change now will just give the Libs a massive stick with which to beat the ALP for the next 10 years. The line will be how can you vote for these clowns when you can’t be sure what sort of leadership freak show there will be if things get tough. As a meme it will work.
Better to keep Gillard, fight like buggery to get as close as possible next election, then be prepared to defend to the death the record of this government, something that shouldn’t be too hard with the broken promises or incompetence that will almost certainly be the hallmarks of an Abbott government.]
In other words, defeat is inevitable. We should just accept it, endure it and persist with a PM that lacks “presentation skills”.
This is not about presentation. This is about judgment; about the calibre of the decisions that have been made. I am obliged to reiterate. Like Rudd before her, Gillard’s problems are of her own making. By saying one thing and then doing another, she has discredited herself. No-one imposed this on her. She has tacitly admitted as much and therefore been obliged to attempt to govern from vulnerability rather than from conviction. This is practically a definition of failed leadership.
[Better to keep Gillard, fight like buggery to get as close as possible next election, then be prepared to defend to the death the record of this government]
But if your goal is to simply not lose badly (which I think is an idiotic electoral strategy), then why wouldn’t you change from an unpopular leader to one who is more popular?
If you have already effectively conceded the election is lost, then that makes changing from an unpopular leader LESS of a risk than sticking with that unpopular person who you have just admitted can’t win!
[Is there an opinion behind that?]
Yes, there is.
I don’t like when people of other side of this debate try to claim a moral or ethical monopoly.
As far as I am concerned, both Gillard and Rudd (or supporters thereof) have resorted to some pretty nasty and grubby stuff in the last 2 years.
Stick to the merits of your arguments. Mudslinging and fake outrage is what Liberals do.
Briefly:
[Ejecting Turnbull and defeating Rudd completely changed the political dynamics and by early 2010, Rudd was effectively finished. Of course, it helped Minchin and Abbott that
the Greens{Rudd} played into their hands then just asthey are{he is} doing now. {amended by me to reflect the reality}]1. It’s doubtful that the Libs would have crossed the floor if they’d known it would make a difference.
2. Rudd did not want us to vote for the CPRS. That was an important consideration in the design of the scheme. Another important design consideration was that most of the Liberals should not vote for it either. Had Turnbull not been rolled, he might have got that outcome. It was almost a cunning plan that Blackadder would have liked. It would have ticked BW/Sussex Street’s plan for reclaiming “the (electoral) centre-left”. It nearly worked, but the Liberals out-manoeuvred Rudd/Sussex St by rolling Turnbull and re-establishing rightwing unity. Rudd/Sussex Street’s conviction was tested by the perceived failure of Copenhagen, and “climategate”, found wanting and so the DD never came. Now the ALP defenders want to lumber us with responsibility for the failure of their nearly very good cunning plan and their lack of conviction.
It’s a lovely thought, but it’s simply self-serving delusion. Rudd could have had our support, had he wanted it, by simply implementing Garnaut without any serious equivocation or delay. The Liberals would have caved and at the subsequent election, he’d have won in a canter. We’d not have had the lower house influence we have now and the ALP could have rolled Rudd shortly after, if they’d been so inclined. Absent the Rudd-ouster issue (which was a bolt from the blue), that is broadly what we thought (mid-2009) would happen in 2010. We were really stunned at how badly he played the issue and then went all “Beattie” over BER and HIP. None of this recommends him as an effective leader and certainly not one who even knows how to wield the quasi-autocratic power he and his inner-cabinet had at that time. He simply lacked the acumen to be PM.
Rolling Gillard now would fix no problem that the ALP needs to fix. On the contrary, all it would do would be to underline them. Rudd would have to explain as Gillard did, why a party that had rejected him so decisively earlier this year, apparently because he was seen by his own close colleagues as some sort of psychopath who wanted to make up policy as he went along, was now embracing him.
Anyone who thinks that the currently hostile media would fall all over the returned Rudd and let him escape explaining how he could work with most of the caucus, or let those who so publicly bollocked him evade explaining why they’d like him to be returned in 2013 and how he could last until 2016 is really having a laugh. Abbott would be credited with having knocked over consecutive first term ALP PMs, seen as likely to get the trifecta and would be immune from challenge.
[people of other side]
that should read either side
lizzie @ 84
It will if the mistake is seen to be corrected.
Zoomster:
[Actually, bemused, if the Captain of the Titanic had done that, the ship would probably have been OK.]
Well I agree with the bearing claim, but perhaps “full steam ahead” wouldn’t have been such a good idea.