Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.
First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.
Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by others. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.
Regarding the budget:
Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.
Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned which may mean cutting services and raising taxes OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure? That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.
Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an unchanged option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.
Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.
So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:
Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.
With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.
Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.
Abbott has also scored his best personal ratings since July last year, his approval up five points on the previous poll to 44% and disapproval down four to 52%.
Gillard has at least not gone backwards on her own personal ratings, although the starting point was quite dismal enough: 35% approval (down one) and 60% disapproval (up one).
UPDATE: Essential Research is at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are the monthly personal ratings, which are little changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.
[If Thomson’s claim that he was set up by another union official and that FWA failed to investigate his side of the story prove to be true, together with the relationship between Kathy Jackson and a FWA official, there would enough ammunition to sink a number of peoples” careers. His claims do not appear to be inconsistent with his statements to date.]
I’ve said all along that he looks far too relaxed and comfortable – and speaks too confidently – for a man in his position.
There is clearly MUCH more to this story, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the person making the most noise is a big part of that story.
Leveson resembling lifestyles of rich and powerful
DL
Precisely. How many times has this person put herself in front of the media for interviews pushing her meme.
shellbell,
Thanks for that.
cheers.
Presumably the same person set Thomson up for the other 100 charges.
wapping had chimney with smoke coloured to tell certain direction.
my say
Listening to a bit of Abbott’s speech, I began to wonder when the fat lady would sing. Perhaps it will be quite soon 🙂
DL
Sure I read somewhere an accusation,that KJ destoyed or docs are missing that would clear what thompson said at the time.
Perhaps others know about it.
[Presumably the same person set Thomson up for the other 100 charges.]
There are no charges, Diog.
Although, I would admit, it’s easy for a slow thinker to miss that point.
MySay @ 136
The Oppn has called Thomson’s ‘vote’ tainted, and that his presence in the chamber makes a mockery of the democratic process. Hockey, in part, from memory.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4005262.html
Joe Ludwig writes a piece for The Drum about the Coalition walking away from bipartisanship on banning the importation of illegally-logged timber.
So the trees have to fall because these mongrels refuse to do their duty as Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, and instead act like petulant children.
victoria
I have noticed how often Jackson was appearing on 730. Begin to wonder whether Uhlmann is acting as a player to bring down the govt.
If he was a candidate against (what was it?) abortion and euthanasia, presumably his heart would be Abbott’s.
[Presumably the same person set Thomson up for the other 100 charges.]
If the trick worked once, why wouldn’t it be done numerous time to establish a pattern?
Abc on tge bottom
See abno tt qsays he will take back hand outs indid i imagine that, left leeveson for footy
Abc on tge bottom
See abno tt qsays he will take back hand outs indid i imagine that, left leeveson for footy
guytaur
The smoke was real?
Puff
From how I read it, JulieB personally altered the wording. She is spiteful IMO.
lizzie
I still cant reconcile Uhlmann is married to Ms Gai Brodtmann Labor MP
puff
yes. They called it the Vatican Chimney.
Victoria,
It makes no sense at all. It would be like a vegetarian married to abattoir worker.
victoria
Oh, I do agree. One feels it can’t last, but sometimes love conquers all 😀
Presumably the same person set Thomson up for the other 100 breaches.
Happy now.
Presumably the union statuatory body set up by Gillard as IR Minister has unfairly hounded a Labor ex-union MP.
Puff
I would never have come up with that analogy, but i guess so!
Lizzie
[If he was a candidate against (what was it?) abortion and euthanasia, presumably his heart would be Abbott’s.]
they would I am sure be simpatico on many issues.
Tony Abbott
[Throughout his time as a student and seminarian, Abbott was writing articles for newspapers and magazines—first for the Sydney University Newspaper, and later The Catholic Weekly]
Chris Uhlmann
[Uhlmann was formerly a seminarian, security guard, and journalist with The Canberra Times,]
Policy is boring. For 2 years JG has delivered policy. Is it now time for govt to play the press gallery’s game? We’ve got the policy in place..lets take them on in the MSM game. Play politics. I wonder if this is starting to happen now. Also of course helped by Kroger/Costello imploding. But then some time ago maybe Tingle said how much of political timing was luck and that ALP had no luck. Maybe the wheel has turned. Its now our time for the luck to strike, coinciding with the Govts timetable to start playing politics now that the legislation is bedded down.
It won’t be enough to change the murdoch rags but maybe there will be a bit more outside of his clutches.
lizzie
[victoria
I have noticed how often Jackson was appearing on 730. Begin to wonder whether Uhlmann is acting as a player to bring down the govt.
If he was a candidate against (what was it?) abortion and euthanasia, presumably his heart would be Abbott’s.
]
First time on 7.30 jackson accused people and promised she would give proof,when she went on twice more ,uhlmann did not ask her once for the proof,just an anti government bash without any evidence at all.
Good evening all.
Well done PJK for taking it up to the hopeless Chris Uhlmann.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4004234.html
I was talking to mum tonight and she was as appalled as most people here at the way the Prime Minister was treated. Will something be done about Uhlmann, because he certainly doesn’t have the skills to host a national current affairs program (except maybe TT or ACA). I’m not holding my breath however.
Has Thomson been charged?
What has he been charged with?
ruawake and victoria
Thanks for the link to Paul Keating article. It was superb. The majority of comments by far think it was superb, too.
I watched that interview and was appalled at Uhlmann’s behaviour. It’s his total lack of disrespect for the PM personally and her office that offends me. The PM should have picked him up on it. She should refuse all further interview requests from him.
Uhlmann is totally out of his depth. He’d go well on2GB/2UE. His rudeness, offensive sneering behaviour and smart alec questions would go down a treat.
She’s talking too much. Volunteering information is bad form.
confessions
Uhlmhan hosting will soon be a thing of the past
My Say,
if you are around, what do they call that collar on the blouse Rebekkah Brooks is wearing at the Leveson Inquiry? It looks very school uniform. My daughters had it on their school uniforms.
Dio:
Never mind, I see you just wrote the wrong word.
Leveson break for 5 minutes News 24 will continue to cover
bb
Brookes may be ready to dump dirt. She has already been left out to dry and been arrested at least once.
I’m surprised Rebekah is saying anything given that she’s been arrested etc, why can’t she take the Fifth equivalent?
Lizzie @ 212
[Yes my heart belongs to Tony
So I simply couldn’t be bad
Yes, my heart belongs to Tony
To-to-to, to-to-to, to-to-to
So I want to warn you, laddie
Though I know you’re perfectly swell
But my heart belongs to Tony
‘cause my Tony he treats it so well.]
I hope so. Put Emma Alberici on 7:30 and it would do wonders for the ratings. She actually can do follow up questions based on peoples answers and has far more brains that Toolman. From watching her on Lateline she can actually do a hard interview without being overly rude.
[She should refuse all further interview requests from him.]
As someone suggested the other day, Howard used to appear very reluctantly on the 730Report, and had his cheersquad frequently denounce the program and the ABC more generally of being pro-Labor and anti Liberal.
Many would argue that a low-skilled, gotcha! journalist now hosting the public broadcaster’s prime time national affairs show is the resulting outcome of all that.
[I hope so. Put Emma Alberici on 7:30 and it would do wonders for the ratings. She actually can do follow up questions based on peoples answers and has far more brains that Toolman. From watching her on Lateline she can actually do a hard interview without being overly rude.]
I’m afraid she’s just as interruptive as Uhlmann.
David Crowe@CroweDM
Katter on Abbott: It amazes me, when speakers get up and say, ‘we have to get rid of this terrible government’. Why, what will change
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10805093
[Oz boosts efforts to get more Kiwis
By Yvonne Tahana
5:30 AM Friday May 11, 2012
Major Australian companies are headhunting Kiwis at a time when Canberra is fattening citizens’ wallets with tax cuts and school benefits.
Rio Tinto, one of the world’s largest mining companies, has taken out big advertisements here calling for more engineers, tradespeople, project managers and specialists as it expands iron ore production from 225 million tonnes a year to 353 million by 2015.
The moves have prompted fears that the numbers of New Zealanders crossing the Tasman will increase from already record levels.
Australia has become more attractive after its government announced millions would benefit from tax breaks, Labour leader David Shearer said.
Record numbers of New Zealanders are moving across the Tasman – Statistics New Zealand puts the figure at 52,000 in the year to January – and those numbers could boom off the back of the Budget, Mr Shearer said.]
more in the article
It will be Leigh Sales back as 7:30 Presenter. Maternity leave over.
[Uhlmhan hosting will soon be a thing of the past]
Yes, but I’m not sure Leigh Sales is much better. The show;s ratings have tanked under both of them.
And besides, Uhlmann will still be the political editor or whatever, meaning he will still do the MP interviews, not Sales.
Dio
Leveson covers areas not under police investigation.
RNM1953
Here is hoping that the wheels have turned!
[Never mind, I see you just wrote the wrong word.]
WOT, Diog, wRONg again? who would have thunk that
fiona
That is not kind. I have just finished eating. The man revolts me 🙁
The collar and clothing of RB are very Laura Ashely. I think a ruse to emphasise her ‘honesty’. Could backfire, though, as Laura Ashely shouts privilege.
Just my thoughts.
BK @ 196
I hope so! Or maybe Bruce will get a famous earful over the telephone. On second thoughts, he doesn’t deserve that prized honour.