Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan

Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.

First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.

Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.

Regarding the budget:

• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.

• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.

• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.

• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.

So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:

• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.

• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.

• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.

• Abbott has also scored his best personal ratings since July last year, his approval up five points on the previous poll to 44% and disapproval down four to 52%.

• Gillard has at least not gone backwards on her own personal ratings, although the starting point was quite dismal enough: 35% approval (down one) and 60% disapproval (up one).

UPDATE: Essential Research is at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are the monthly personal ratings, which are little changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,219 comments on “Budget polling: Nielsen, Galaxy and Morgan”

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  3. C@tmomma

    It has been an interesting 24 hours that is for sure.

    I really do hope your observations hit the mark!

  5. Thomson is now saying his statement will be at least 30 minutes long. Geez longer than the Budget speech or reply.

    Does Pyne realise what he has helped produce – a 30 min unsworn defence under privilege. The man is a fool – Pyne I mean.

  7. Victoria,
    [I dont pretend to know what is going on in the Thomson matter, but i get very negative vibes from Ms Kathy Jackson. She is not what she presents herself to be. She and her cohorts are up to their necks in crap]
    Likewise with me. Then there is the conflict of interest of her relationship with the 2IC in FWA.

  11. [After last night’s pathetic Budget-In-Reply speech from Tony Abbott, the unfolding Ashby/Slipper set-up and the duplicitous hypocrisy of the Coalition’s attacks on Craig Thomson, when they are just as guilty of protecting their own in similar circumstances, I am hopeful the answer is ‘Yes’.]
    None of these things matter much while Gillard is still P.M.

  13. I have been away for some time. Could someone point me to Paul Keating’s article on the Uhlmann interview?

  17. (ruawake Posted Friday, May 11, 2012 at 7:11 pm | Permalink

    Thomson is now saying his statement will be at least 30 minutes long. Geez longer than the Budget speech or reply.

    Does Pyne realise what he has helped produce – a 30 min unsworn defence under privilege. The man is a fool – Pyne I mean.)

    I wonder whos idea it was, but i think pyne or some one thought, that it woukd pass and he would be forced to speak immediately

  18. [C@tmomma
    Posted Friday, May 11, 2012 at 7:00 pm | Permalink
    I think the worm has turned on Tony Abbott over the last 24 hours since he went into our parliament and let fly with as much impertinent disrespect of our Prime Minister as Uhlmann has mustered on 7.30.

    If Laurie Oakes has decided to give Julia Gillard’s lifeline in parliament, Craig Thomson, more than the time of day, in fact, coming out of his self-imposed hibernation to conduct an interview with him tomorrow, then I think it is fair to assume that he has forgiven the PM her indiscretions and has had enough of the gormless goon, Tony Abbott.etc]

    Well thought out and I think that what you say hopefully is spot on. I thought Laurie had retired from TV so it is very interesting what has brought bhim back

  20. Belsham came on twitter got a belting over uhlmann,

    Also got the PM mixed up with Milne,can see why PM is always blamed.

  21. I believe that Craig, as well as his lawyers, knows his way around the law:

    Thomson was educated at the University of New South Wales, where he obtained a Bachelor of Commerce. Thomson later completed a law degree at University of Technology, Sydney. He also attended a trade union education programme at Harvard University.

    You know I actually remember when the accusations about the Union funding Craig’s campaign came up in 2007. The local paper was sniffing around about it, and I was worried that it might derail his campaign. I was told simply that businesses are free to decide to donate to Liberal campaigns and Trade Unions are free to decide to donate to Labor campaigns. It’s their money. So I was reassured. I hope that was correct.

  24. (osted Friday, May 11, 2012 at 6:43 pm | Permalink

    mysay

    people who work from home, using telephone & computer to stay in touch with the office)

    Thank you all , its great new 21st termanolgy new words of this centuary

  25. Schnappi

    [Belsham came on twitter got a belting over uhlmann,
    Also got the PM mixed up with Milne,can see why PM is always blamed.]
    And Belsham is the head of WHAT?

  29. Lynchpin Looking back on the Essential Poll you know you are always welcome at the MNCoast PB get together, look forward to you coming down to Minnie Waters and cruising on down

  30. Victoria

    Sounds like Thomson is going to kick off a case of his own in the Federal Court seeking orders restraining the FWA from proceeding against him on the basis its investigation was incomplete.

    A complete investigation does not mean chasing every rabbit down every warren; something the Court may find.

    If Thomson is right, all that means is the FWA is directed to investigate these matters bring more opprobium on FWA.

    Thomson just gets time something he will have plenty of anyway when he is not preselected.

  32. [Sounds like Thomson is going to kick off a case of his own in the Federal Court seeking orders restraining the FWA from proceeding against him on the basis its investigation was incomplete.]

    I think Thomson will seek orders that the investigation and report were tainted.

  33. [but i get very negative vibes from Ms Kathy Jackson. She is not what she presents herself to be]
    I know nothing about her but I think you may be on the mark for the following reason. I heard a bit on ABC radio where they spoke to W.A. HSU and various other branch leaders. There was a universal dislike of her and pointing to her as the problem. W.A. branch is actually talking of leaving and Jackson was front and center of their reasons why.

  34. shellbell,

    Not trying to have a go just interested in you informed opinion.

    If lawyers for Mr Thomson provided information to FWA in defence of potential findings against him and FWA did not follow up before finalising the report how could the investigation be regarded as complete ?

    Cheers.

  39. [The #Insiders panel this Sunday May 13 is @lenoretaylor, Laura Tingle @latingle and Niki Savva And guest is Families Minister Jenny Macklin]

  40. my say

    I meant, if the ‘liberal fight’ is important enough to over ride the normal state reports, things are looking up!

  41. http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/owen-jones-this-austerity-backlash-across-europe-could-transform-britain-7734670.html

    [Owen Jones: This austerity backlash across Europe could transform Britain
    The truth is that the real world has paid the high priests of austerity an unwelcome visit
    Friday 11 May 2012

    When I first read Naomi Klein’s The Shock Doctrine a few years ago, I had no idea how prescient the book was. It was a polemic about “disaster capitalism”, arguing that sudden crises are intentionally manipulated to push through extreme free market policies that were otherwise not politically possible. But early 2008 was a completely different era: although Northern Rock had just suffered the first bank run for 150 years, it seemed like a bizarre blip. The US sub-prime crisis was rumbling away, but it was like sheet lightning from a distant storm. “The deficit” was not an everyday term of political debate. It was not at all clear that the world was about to be utterly transformed.]

  42. If Thomson’s claim that he was set up by another union official and that FWA failed to investigate his side of the story prove to be true, together with the relationship between Kathy Jackson and a FWA official, there would enough ammunition to sink a number of peoples” careers. His claims do not appear to be inconsistent with his statements to date.

  43. ” … It is a personal and unreasonable assault on one of this country’s best political journalists and interviewers. ”

    Substitute “political journalists and interviewers” with Prime Minister, Bruce, and you can see why a lot of people (Keating included) are upset.

  44. Well no, think u may of been tongue in cheek 🙂 🙂

    Friday night is the only night we watch 7.30 now its a story with our connection here to antartica

    Never have much politics on it its usually great stories

  45. Doyley

    Complete can mean we read your request to follow up (a), (b) and (c) but we formed the view that (a), (b) and (c) did not justify following up. The investigation does not have to be exhaustive.

    The notion of incomplete investigation is common fare in defended criminal proceedings. The copper in charge of the investigation will often be asked why he/she did not speak to witness A, B, C. Skilled in answering questions like that, the copper will say why A, B, C were irrelevant. The fact that the copper did not interview the witnesses however does not mean charges cannot be laid. It might be different with the FWA.

  49. Poroti: The Secretary of the HSU SA branch is someone of many years’ standing in that position and, as far as I am aware, a person of great intergity.

    I can’t imagine that he’d be too impressed by the way the eastern branches have besmirched the reputation of his union.

  50. Yes i was very sure thats what u meant lizzie something going on for the abc to push this

    I wonder what, is this a smoke screen, for other things,
    Goodness aust. Is a soap opra

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