Four polls: one from Nielsen, conducted on the two nights after the budget (Wednesday and Thursday) from a sample of 1200; one from Galaxy, conducted on Thursday evening and during the day yesterday from a sample of 600; a Morgan phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening from a sample of 571; and a Morgan face-to-face poll conducted last weekend from a sample of 1004. Galaxy only canvassed opinion on the budget; Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll canvassed the budget and voting intention; the Morgan face-to-face poll, obviously, missed the budget and only looked at voting intention.
First on voting intention. Nielsen and the Morgan phone poll are in agreement on two-party preferred, which amounts to a combined sample of 1771 putting the result at 58-42 to the Coalition. On the primary vote, Nielsen has Labor up a point on the previous poll six weeks ago to 28%, the Coalition up two to 49% and the Greens down one to 12%. Even allowing for the small sample and high margin of error, the state breakdowns offer the truly extraordinary result of a Labor primary vote in Queensland of 19%, compared with a previous worst of 21% in July last year (and perhaps suggesting a honeymoon for the state government has added a bit of fuel to federal Labor’s recent poll collapse). Remarkably, the poll still has Labor ahead 54-46 in Victoria.
Morgan’s phone poll has the primary votes at 29% for Labor, 50.5% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The face-to-face poll has Labor’s primary vote at 29.5%, down half a point on their previous worst-ever result in the last poll of April 21/22 (there was evidently no polling conducted on the weekend of April 28/29). The Coalition was also down two points, to 45.5%, and with the Greens steady at 12%, the slack has been taken up by “others”. At 13%, the latter figure is at levels unseen since One Nation and the Democrats were substantial concerns, although other, more reliable polls aren’t replicating this. Records have also been set on the two-party preferred figures: the 60.5-39.5 respondent-allocated result is Labor’s worst ever, but the gap between this figure and the 55.5-44.5 previous-election result is also at an all-time high, the previous highest being two polls ago in early April.
Regarding the budget:
• Nielsen and Galaxy both asked respondents if it would leave them better or worse, producing results of 27% better off and 43% worse off in Nielsen’s case, and 23% and 46% in Galaxy’s.
• Morgan has 19% rating the budget good, 43% average and 25% bad; 29.5% believing the surplus would eventuate and 60% believing it wouldn’t; and 49% considering a surplus important and 47.5% believing otherwise. The latter result is remarkably different to what Essential Research elicited a month ago when it framed the question thus: “Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?” That produced respective results of 12% and 73%.
• Galaxy asked if respondents believed the Coalition would have done better, which is the one question that allows ready comparison with the three questions Newspoll has been asking after each budget since the late 1980s (Newspoll also asks about impact on personal finances, but it explicitly offers respondents an “unchanged” option which invariably proves very popular). The results were 29% yes and 43% no, which is a surprisingly positive result for the government (or, more likely, a negative one for the opposition) – better for them than Newspoll’s 2010 and 2011 results, and close to Newspoll’s long-term averages of 29.5% and 47.6%.
• Galaxy also found only 17% anticipating that carbon tax compensation would be adequate against 62% who said it would not be.
So much for the good news for Julia Gillard. Personal ratings from Nielsen show up the following:
• Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred Labor leader has further blown out, to 62-30 in a head-to-head contest with Gillard from 58-34 when the question was last asked immediately before the leadership challenge.
• With other leadership options included, the results are 42% for Rudd, 19% for Gillard, 12% for Stephen Smith, 9% for Simon Crean, 8% for Bill Shorten and 4% for Greg Combet.
• Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has blown out from 48-45 to 50-42, returning him to where he was in September.
• Abbott has also scored his best personal ratings since July last year, his approval up five points on the previous poll to 44% and disapproval down four to 52%.
• Gillard has at least not gone backwards on her own personal ratings, although the starting point was quite dismal enough: 35% approval (down one) and 60% disapproval (up one).
UPDATE: Essential Research is at 57-43, down from 58-42 last week, from primary votes of 50% for the Coalition (steady), 30% for Labor (up one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are the monthly personal ratings, which are little changed on April (contra Nielsen, Tony Abbott’s net rating has actually deteriorated from minus 12 to minus 17), and responses to the budget. The most interesting of the latter questions is on the impact of the budget on you personally, working people, businesses and the economy overall, for which the respective net ratings are minus 11, plus 7, minus 33 and minus 6. All of the eight specific features of the budget canvassed produced net positive ratings, from plus 5 for reduced defence spending to plus 79 for increased spending on dental health. There was a statistical tie (34% to 33%) on the question of whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey was most trusted to handle the economy.
Leigh Sales is really boring. Politicians are boring enough without a boring interviewer. It’s no wonder people are turning off.
Puff,
Peter Pan collar?
Oh damn ABC24. Could somebody please give me a link to live coverage?
Finns:
😆
And I can’t believe I didn’t use the PB convention by writing wRONg!
confessions
[As someone suggested the other day, Howard used to appear very reluctantly on the 730Report, and had his cheersquad frequently denounce the program and the ABC more generally of being pro-Labor and anti Liberal.]
Yes, I remember he hated being questioned about his decisions. But I don’t remember Kerry being as insolent as Uhlmann, or as snide as Heather.
fiona
5 minute break
fiona
They are on break news24 returning when they get back
guytaur
[Leveson covers areas not under police investigation]
Isn’t Levenson asking about phone hacking at all?
[Leveson Inquiry with witness Rebekah Brookes now back on live News24]
[Rob O’Neill @mouthforhire
Everyone on flight DJ1178 to Albury is waiting for Sophie Mirabella to board. Paged twice very loudly, still no sign]
Do we know if she made the plane? Typical born to rule type. 😆
Flipper Boy
[For those already tired of the 2012 presidential election, take note: Polling for the 2016 Iowa caucus has begun. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, whose repeated dismissals of future campaigns have done little to diminish speculation of another presidential run, blows the speculative Democratic competition out of the water in a new Public Policy Polling survey. ]
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-poll-hillary-clinton-takes-commanding-early-lead-in-iowa-for-2016-20120510,0,921407.story
Dio
Not much so far
BB
[She’s talking too much. Volunteering information is bad form.]
Long time ago a lawyer told me , The pathway to prison is paved with voluntary statements.
And it is true.
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 56m
Should get Uhlmann on Qanda – Belsham could write all the on screen tweets every time a panelist disagreed with Chris]
My humblest apologies, Lizzie.
And thank you muchly, Schnappi and guytaur.
lizzie:
REd Kerry was never rude. He was persistent in trying to break through the legendary Howard lies and spin, and used to get frustrated when Howard simply refused point blank to answer questions. But nothing like Ulhmann or Ewart, I agree.
Leroy
[Oz boosts efforts to get more Kiwis ]
As Piggy Muldoon once said ““New Zealanders who emigrate to Australia raise the IQ of both countries.” 😆
[Uhlmhan hosting will soon be a thing of the past]
I’m not so sure. They seem determined to defend him, whatever happens. They posted 267 comments in response to Paul Keating’s piece – at least 90 per cent of them criticising Uhlmann. Then, and only then, when all the comments were online, did they post Belcham’s defence of Uhlmann.
If they were still prepared to stand by him even in the face of such heavy disapproval from the public, I can’t see them moving him on. They obviously want him there, for whatever reason.
[BB
She’s talking too much. Volunteering information is bad form.
Long time ago a lawyer told me , The pathway to prison is paved with voluntary statements.
And it is true.]
Another way of putting it
When in the witness box, the right answer is always no
Good evening all.
Looks like the Libs are so confident of winning, they have started to air the dirty laundry from Victoria out in public…
They better pull their heads in or the ALP might actually start to look good (although the most recent Morgan appears to re-confirm minds are already set in stone)
I couldn’t give a stuff about the Peter Pan collar. What I can’t abide is the teenage wild curls on a woman of 43.
I’m not being sexist in my critique of appearance, btw – I’ve already called Kevin Andrews the Member for Grecian 2000 – this evening and a few days ago.
[Rob O’Neill @mouthforhire
Everyone on flight DJ1178 to Albury is waiting for Sophie Mirabella to board. Paged twice very loudly, still no sign]
I’m sure th e Puff Adder will get a good reception from the passengers when it finallly slithers aboard.
Peter pan collar
Cuppa:
Belsham’s defence of Uhlmann doesn’t in any way address Keating’s core criticism that Ulhmann is incompetent.
Incidentally that’s been my criticism of Ulhmann all this time. The man simply lacks the skills for the position he currently occupies.
Fiona its the look , what was it now, it has a name in london some years ago
Hair as well
Shorter Rebekah:
[It was the vibe.]
Derryn Hinch’s line was “A New Zealander is someone who can’t find work in Australia.”
my say
I shudder to think.
BK:
I wonder if the airline knew who she was? If they were publicly paging her, perhaps not.
How come-downment.
Oh shit, Rebekah, stop playing for sympathy with your early-onset dementia.
[REd Kerry was never rude. He was persistent in trying to break through the legendary Howard lies and spin, and used to get frustrated when Howard simply refused point blank to answer questions. But nothing like Ulhmann or Ewart, I agree.]
Kerry did his share of finger pointing and interrupting.
The true judgement of what they can do when they are of a mind to shine is the interviews they carry out with clapped out pop stars in their hotel rooms, the one they do with the ties off, “unplugged” as it were. Quite conversational and sometimes interesting.
Bruce Belsham wrote:
[Chris’s tone throughout was respectful but probing, the appropriate tone for a political interviewer doing what political interviewers have always done – acting devil’s advocate for a public seeking to better understand its leaders.]
Firstly, of course, Uhlmann was definitely not respectful, or if he was, I’d like to see him when he’s being a rude prat.
Belsham sees the political interviewer’s job as to act as a “devil’s advocate”. While this may be true on occasion, it’s not necessarily true all the time, or even most of the time.
We had had a Budget speech just delivered. People wanted to know about it. Uhlmann’s interruptions – rude or otherwise – made certain that virtually no information got out.
Firstly, he didn’t give the PM a chance to answer questions, actually arguing with her on a couple of occasions.
Secondly, it’s virtually impossible to see one person’s face and lip movements, producing sound (“The Answer”) and to simultaneously understand another’s speech, when their face is off camera (“The Interruption”). Our human brains just aren’t wired that way, especially when the off-camera audio is just as loud or louder than the person on camera.
I think this latter point is what Keating meant by “unprofessional”. It’s physically impossible to understand two threads of speech at the same time from the same set of speakers. It’s technical point, but also goes to professionalism. Uhlmann’s interview the other night was just professionally inept. The rapid cutting from one camera to another hindered, rather than helped.
Amateur night, but with a purpose, methinks.
[(although the most recent Morgan appears to re-confirm minds are already set in stone)]
Not necessarily, if the punters prefer Labor’s policies but intend to vote for the Libs. A good election campaign could produce a substantial swing.
@BBelsham The record of my on-the-spot-as-it-happened-count http://twitpic.com/9jqpgm/full of the interruption #auspol
BB
Yep.
[A good election campaign could produce a substantial swing.]
It would have to be one hellavu swing though from where we are now.
F********
[I was instrumental but not the driving force.]
dear oh dear oh dear
Puff did a bit of research, apparently very much back in , in london this season 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
[Everyone on flight DJ1178 to Albury is waiting for Sophie Mirabella to board. Paged twice very loudly, still no sign]
BK, just let her go
[Incidentally that’s been my criticism of Ulhmann all this time. The man simply lacks the skills for the position he currently occupies.]
I’ve long thought the same Confessions. The Peter Principle, I believe it’s called.
“I can’t remember…”
“I can’t remember…”
“I can’t remember…”
I can remember somebody else who once said, “I can’t remember…”.
Whats worse, stealing money from a union or taking money from an invalid pensioner? If Thomson shouldn’t sit in parliament and his vote is tainted why isn’t Mirrabella’s?
The fact that she’s not been charged or likely to be charged and is only facing a civil action from Colin Howards children isn’t the point, Thomson is only facing civil action.
Of course on 22 September 2011, the Melbourne Age newspaper reported that Mirabella may have potentially breached electoral laws by failing to disclose $100,000 in financial support received from Colin Howard, so that’s two things Mirrabella hasn’t been proven to be guilty of.
I’m happy to stand corrected but as far as I’m concerned if Thomson is not allowed the presumption of innocence why should Mirrabella have it?
fiona
good summing up
[It would have to be one hellavu swing though from where we are now.]
So?
Mod lib is baiting u all
good night
[The rapid cutting from one camera to another hindered, rather than helped.]
He also talked over the top of the PM, even when she was trying to answer his questions!
It was a shambles, the kind of crap you’d expect to see on tabloid TV, where some sleazy used car salesman is fronted by a camera crew and a mic stuck in his face and a barrage of questions ensues, with no opportunity for him to answer them.
HIVEMIND: the right thing to do for our readership.
I think a lot of you are on the wrong track re Uhlmann. You’ve got to go back to when Mark Scott took the reins at the ABC. It was his stated intention to have them compete in the commercial market. He’d be more than happy to see Uhlmann bringing attention to the ABC. They’ve been eyeing off the ACA/TT market, and they’re quite satisfied to see their flagship go a bit downmarket.
I think that creates a rather large dissonance. Either the ABC is the government broadcaster or it’s a commercial player. It can’t be both, because entering the commercial market creates commercial pressures, and they’re at odds with impartial and fearless reportage.
Complaints will do nothing, if that’s the way they’re headed.
[Everyone on flight DJ1178 to Albury is waiting for Sophie Mirabella to board. Paged twice very loudly, still no sign]
Paint a target on her forehead, put her in a chaff bag, give her a kicking half to death, burn her a little, call her a liar and a cheat with a huge arse and no dress sense, then strap her to the wing and take off.
She won’t be late next time.
Smaug:
I’d still like to know why it was that we only came to learn of Mary-Jo Fisher’s actual criminal charges after the incoming Senate was sworn in.
Her vote was crucial in the last parliament in terms of the coalition blocking stuff, and from memory there was a whole 6 months or so where charges had been laid and we were none the wiser.
[He’d be more than happy to see Uhlmann bringing attention to the ABC. They’ve been eyeing off the ACA/TT market, and they’re quite satisfied to see their flagship go a bit downmarket. ]
Yeah, great idea, except the ratings are in the toilet, worse than ever.