The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:
• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.
• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.
• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.
• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.
• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.
• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.
• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.
All of DTT’s comments are framed through a Rudd persecution prism. However I’m no longer surprised to encounter people who can only view politics through the cult of personality, rather than policy and ideological standpoints. I just feel sorry for them now.
Queenslanders are the same people who let Gillard go out on a very thin limb, risking everything, being vilified, called a traitor etc. to get them their Flood Levy, as opposed to the Abbott fantasy of little tins with slots in the top of them, piggy banks, sausage sizzles, and $5 donations from old ladies which would be collected across the nation every week or so, as a means of rebuilding Queensland.
Then they threw their state government out, and now it looks like they want to throw the Federal government out too.
There’s gratitude for you.
smithe
After the Qld election, I spoke to some people who had come to Melbourne, and asked them for their take on things in their home state. They said Labor would be doing better in their state with a male leader. It is as simple as that.
Danny Lewis
Yes it sounds a much more nobler a reason than because she is a deliberatlely barren unmarried atheist woman.A bit like the sudden change in concern shown by so many of the stop the boaters .When their racism and anti muslim bigotry started to be called out they became “won’t somebody think of the children.” humanitarians.
vitalise
There has been mention of a dental scheme and also something about the National Insurance Disability Scheme. We shall know in a month’s time.
Not only are the tea party tactics of splitting selfish and banjo country away from the sane, Abbott’s revolting misogyny is attracting the male vote.
That is a bad, bad polling result for the centre-left vote.
It is also bad news for Mr Abbott. No matter how badly Labor goes, his figures are not improving.
It also shows what is probably one of the biggest gender gaps ever in terms of major party support.
The question is this: ‘Are more men supporting the Coalition because the prime minister is a woman, or are more women supporting Ms Gillard because the prime minister is a woman?
In other words, is it push or is it pull?
All it’s ever needed is the one thing it’s been consistently denied in th medi: A fair go.
Still, with Shanners off with wnagkers cramp or whatever and the rest of the pack getting tired, maybe the stag will indeed out run the hounds.
Either that or the mutts in the Press will be run off their legs in frrustration and take to sniffing each other’s arses. They’re already starting to blue amongst themselves….see the incipient soush between News and Fairfax over the latest News Ltd scandals.
This is a very good omen for Labor.
confessions
I am in no doubt that the gender of the PM has a huge bearing. I know many disagree with me, but i am convinced of it.
I see that the scandal-prone coalition is back. Mr O’Farrell has had to sack one of his advisers for something to do with corruption or bad behaviour or something.
smithe
Considering your own personal health challenges, I am appreciating your optimistic commentary where Labor is concerned. I could learn something from that!
Acting Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce.
Yeehaaaaaaa
Hey BB, compadre.
I say bring back the Brisbane Line.
We’ll hold the fokkers at the tweed.
Boerwar
Please, it is too early in the morning to make such statements!!!
Yep, I agree with you.
How about this: So long as Abbott keeps pulling it the way he has been, this will push women to vote Labor?
There. Covers every option.
If Labor’s done reforms according to the polls – we’d not have floating AUD, Tariff cuts, Finance Deregulation, Super, Enterprise Bargain
Of course the PM’s gender is a major factor. A large number of males pay no attention to female politicians unless they’re talking about if they want to root them.
Whenever Julia Gillard comes up in conversation they’d be like “Well if she lost 10 kilos off her arse then maybe” and this would be responded to with much stupid guffawing.
LNP 109
ALP 41
I ain’t dead yet victoria.
Nether is Labor. People should remember that.
Morning All
Terrible poll, no choice but to cop it on the chin for now and wait for a few months of carbon tax reality to see if that 50% + that think they are worse off realise they’ll actually be better off or so little worse off it doesn’t really matter.
18 months is a very long time in politics, hopefully long enough – in saying that, Julia only has until Christmas to get the primary vote back to mid 30’s + on a consistent basis or Labor will have no choice but to find someone else.
Let’s hope she can
smithe
I am not giving up. Until there is an election result telling me otherwise!!
Given that nine out of ten households will be over-compensated for any carbon price effects, this figure is sure to rise considerably once the compensation starts to flow into bank accounts before July 1.
How is it that so many people can be so badly informed about the Carbon Price? Easy: the MSM has done a piss-poor job of explaining how it works, and Abbott and his cronies have achieved maximum coverage for their deliberately misleading (and outright wrong) assertions. This must change as the reality dawns.
These constant polls remind me of torturers rendering their victim unconscious with pain, stopping for a second, then throwing a bucket of water over the victim, waiting for them to wake up and get a grip on what’s happening… and then starting all over again.
Vic
Assuming for a moment you are right, what do you see as the solution. Ditch JG for a suitable male replacement?
Boerwar
You can see what it would look like here;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcW_Ygs6hm0
Maybe they polled the cane toads?
Darn
The govt need to continue with the job of governing. Announce and pass budget. July 1 will see the carbon policy enacted. We will have a clearer picture later in the year how the electorate respond to the policies. Changing leaders now for anyone would be a disaster for Labor
Polls will come, polls will go and in 18 months time we will know the result. Before that however I will get on with enjoying the rest of my life in the full knowledge that our current Prime Minister is one of the most worthwhile leaders this country has ever had.I am also buoyed by the fact that if in 18 months time the result of the election, is a reflection on todays polls, Julia Gillard will not be thrown out of her own seat Unlike JWH. An event which when i reflect on it always brings a smile of supreme satisfaction to me.
What’s this ML?
Your blood pressure?
Seriously, If you keep plugging the most recent polling into the Federal Pendulum and tabulating the results, by the time the next Election come around in Oct/Nov 2013, you’ll have proven……..I dunno, what, exactly?
That you can use the Pendulum? That you’re an obsessive-compulsive with nothing better to do? That you like lists?
It won’t affect the result, you know.
Only one poll will do that: The Election itself.
Good morning, Bludgers.
Ta, Leroy
Ah, yes. And I’ll bet this round of disclosures has nothing to do with UK questioning of Murdoch’s being a fit and proper person to retain what control he has left of BSKYB; Oz Austar takeover by NewsLtd, & Murdoch’s dream of dominating USA sports-rights through his new sports channel.
My bet? A$000,000,000,000.
My opinion of AFR’s editorial? Lips, do not smile. Fingers crossed behind back. Tongue, prepare to meet cheek.
And I’m lovin’ it!
$20 that has to be shelled out in one hit on an electricity bill is lamented more than $20 collected indirectly in dribs and drabs, months before or after the bill payment and labelled “compensation”.
There will be enough stories of people who fall through the cracks, or who otherwise constitute exceptions, to fill the newspapers for years.
The primary vote for Labor is the same as when Jack Lang took NSW Labor out the main party and took ten percent of the vote.
The Scullin and Gillard analogy is an apt one.
Check out the 1931 election.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_1931
It is getting closer to Jul 1 when the “carbon tax” and MRRT come into effect. So people are getting a bit more scared about the “dreadful new taxes.” I doubt polling will improve until after July. Swanny talking about spending cuts will not exactly be helping—people are expecting higher taxes on tobacco and alcohol which is not really what Swan is talking about but you wouldn’t get to hear that in the nightly news etc.
Labor needs to spend money on advertising tho! They have the perfect moral right to explain policies implemented into law. No point trying to explain we do not have a carbon tax—people will see that in their payslips after 1 Jul. Lib propaganda about the “carbon tax” will bite them on the bum post 1 Jul.
Rudd would just water these policies down, no thanks.
Not suggesting you are.
Some others, however, could do with a bit of spinal bracing.
Cheer up. Fight fight fight amonst the Liberals with Tony in the middle.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberals-look-to-us-for-seat-fix-20120331-1w51a.html#ixzz1qpabMRhH
Sadly not Dr John.
I suspect even cane toads would have yielded a more rational result.
Nice OzPol at 232.
As I say, the feral pack turns in on itself at last.
May there be much blood and flying fur.
Also, at least Queensland Labor have provided a lesson on how not to run an election campaign.
Don’t spend the whole time throwing feces at Abbott, he has plenty on his own hands. The campaign must be positive. The NBN is Labor’s greatest asset. Make everyone remember that Australia’s Internet system is 10 years behind the rest of the world, but the NBN takes us straight to the front, providing reasonably priced extremely fast internet.
Also, in regards to the Carbon Pricing, perhaps talk more about its second major positive – the fact that it will not only reduce carbon pollution, it will encourage us to use up less of our resources. Everyone on the planet is nervous about Peak Oil, but with Carbon Pricing, it encourages us to find ways to use less of it.
That Hayden beat Fraser in 1980, thereby saving us from Treasurer Howard’s 1980-March 83’s economic mayhem; Keating was done like a dinner in 1993; Beazley won federal elections 1998 & 2001 in landslides (aka KimSlides in his honour); Howard lost 2004 – but romped home in election 2007.
Stutchbury seems keener than ever to prove his anti-Gillard credentials.
His editorial is a thin defence. For example, he talks of “thousands of pounds” being paid to police: $2000 to be precise, the minimum required for the word “thousands” to be used, with a vague reference to “evidence” of other payments.
Clearly the AFR’s main hope is for a bandwagon effect. They need some government body to take up the evidence and look into it officially. This was the substance of Laura Tingle’s lament the other day. Without that the story will fade away.
This isn’t to say that there probably isn’t a deeper story. If News Ltd. runs true to the form of its international brothers and sisters, it’ll be as rotten here as anywhere else. That’s a given. I have no doubt that the local News franchise is malevolent, vicious and vindictive. That’s their style.
The question is: how to prove it before they get off the hook?
good morning all,
Interesting poll but hardly surprising.
Simple reasons I think.
Carbon pricing and fear of the unknown plus the hype around a tough budget. For NSW and Qld add in the pokies campaign which has been running hard in both states.
Nothing will really change until carbon pricing begins and people live the reality and judge for themselves if they are better or worse off with the compo. That will take a few months.
Once the budget is done then that unknown will be out of the way as well. NDIS framework, Dental pf some sort, support for business through write offs and carry over of losses plus some other measures.
People need to see they will not be destroyed by the actions of this government.
Pokies is about to end with the NSW Clubs Association about to call a truce and in fact start ti run a positive campaign in support of the government changes. Hopefully Queensland as well will follow.
The above is, I think, the simple truth of it all. Will it help ? I have no idea but I do wonder what people will think when hopefully they realize that it is not a nightmare and the end of the world is not about to hit them.
Will they look at Abbott in even a worse light for putting the fear of god into them and frightening the bejeezes out of them ?
Hold the line keep on keeping on and 100% support behind the PM. if polls can go down so quickly then in this new reality they can go up almost as quick. This is the new world. Using the past to judge what may happen in the future re politics in this country is no longer realistic. It has been turned on its bum. What we are now living is the brave new and unexplored territory of Australian politics.
I saw a really good movie the other night where a group of English retirees move to India. Judi Dench, Maggi Smith are in it and it is a real hoot.
One line really struck me.
” It will be alright in the end. If it is not yet alright then it is not yet the end.”
Have a great day all.
Nothing much really, but it’s the same thing Labor supporters were doing when their poll numbers were through the roof 2006-2009.
Vic
I agree, that is a sound approach. But if there is a big gender bias as you say none of that is going to fix it.
FWIW, I believe it is less a gender issue per se and more of an anti Gillard bias. Very unfair to be sure, but what’s ever fair about politics?
Bad Poll. If the problem is the media, as everybody says, then the ALP has to address it. The obvious way is to use the alternative media, the web. I think the party should have a campaign to develop thousands of websites which are pro progressive politics,. Use Search Engine Optimisation techniques to ensure high level search results, and flood the internet with pro ALP information to counteract the MSM.
The party has IT people, lots of members and the resources to do this. Why aren’t they doing it now?
Whatever happened to those narrowing poll predictions.
So if Kevin is out of the news and not leaking who is to blame .
Is David Murray part of the MSM now or Heather Ridout etc when the criticize the Carbon Tax as being badly designed.
As for gender preference JG is very fortunate that women want to support her no matter how bad she is therefore keeping her approval rating artificially high and she is very fortunate that she appears to be both South Australian and Victorian thereby getting the old parochial vote from the home state effect.
I do hope against hope that she will make it all the way through until the 2013 election but I suspect her party will do a Bill Hayden to her at the end of the year or very early next year.
Alternatively she could get Obama or QE2 out here every few months as that gave her the poll bounce last year.
Which will do nothing unless people actively seek out and look at the websites. The disinterested who decide elections are unlikely to actively seek out progressive websites.
Doyley
Great post
The government needs to launch the mother of all advertising campaigns.
The media are not going to come to their collective sense anytime soon.
Even if Gillard cops it over another broken commitment (political advertising) it’ll still focus a lot of peoples attention on the scoreboard.
Ok. Shoot me down.