Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).

Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,757 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

Comments Page 18 of 76
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  1. g
    vendetta? lefties? Might the One and Only True Centre of the Centre-Left Party be able to help? Is a blood feud so that blood spilled has to be revenged, and so on and so forth until the planet cooks? Just the sort of stuff we all need.

  2. General question

    After a middle-aged middle-class family has paid off its mortgage, what should they put their money into?

    Super?
    Property?
    Bonds?
    Stock market?

  3. victoria
    [the Coalition is now a fruitcake fringe of xenophobes]
    Quick edit
    [ the Coalition is now a fruitcake fringe of xenophobes the Tea Party]

  4. Rua

    The OOTCCLP will appoint Think Tankers far and wide.

    They know everything about nothing. But they excel at creating and maintaining a debate. Examples are the ‘debate’ about tobacco causing lung cancer and the ‘debate’ about atmospheric CO2 causing AGW. The real skill is that they create these debates without any substance. So Think Tankers have much to add to the centre-left squabbledom.

  5. The fact that the major Sydney newspaper has put out its own policies and its own cabinet seems to have been ignored.

    Why have political parties, govt or opposition? The Telegraph will have the dream team for you instead.

  6. [After a middle-aged middle-class family has paid off its mortgage, what should they put their money into?

    Super?
    Property?
    Bonds?
    Stock market?]

    If they are a true blue fair dinkum aussies then pokies.

  7. [
    Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 7:31 pm | Permalink
    mari

    Appreciate feedback re Channel 10. I watched Daily show and The Colbert Report tonight. Gave local news a wide berth]
    It is the only one I watch as both Paul B and Hugh R are pretty straight as you know from their tweets

  8. Augustus

    [i have….. an acid tongue]

    One of my report cards in Year 8 described me as having an acid tongue.

    The olds weren’t too chirpy for a few months after that. 🙁

  9. Super is not an alternative to the other investments Diogenes
    [After a middle-aged middle-class family has paid off its mortgage, what should they put their money into?

    Super?
    Property?
    Bonds?
    Stock market?]
    Within Super you can choose what investment mix you wish with some limitations in public offer funds but without restrictions in your own SMSF. As for which asset class is better for you … it all depends on so many factors but start off with thinking where you want to be at various stages in your life from here on and whether your kids are gonna need your help and when and if you’ll cough up!

  10. [there are some posters here who resort to juvenille behaviour

    wtf does a persons financial matters matter

    a continuing decline into dross and drivel by a once eadable poster

    more like a farting spark than a wildfire]

    Seeing as you ask…

    I thought it was reasonable to point out that a radio station which continually lamented the government’s inability to manage money (thus “sending the nation broke”, etc.) was patently unable to manage its own money and patently unable to live within its earnings, to the point of trading while insolvent and leaving its contractors in the lurch to the tune of millions of dollars.

    Further, those contractors of MTR – principally Dennis Shanahan – who continually blamed the government for having to borrow money because its receipts fell away during the GFC, now find themselves in a similar position: loss of revenue due to financial meltdown.

    Lastly, I’d always wondered whether those light-hearted “banter” type telephone interviews with various phone in guests bashing the government were really light-hearted banter, or whether they were bought and paid for. Now we know that too.

    On the whole a very revealing article, if you take the trouble to read it and can lay off the snarking of other posters for five minutes.

  11. Scott Morrison refused to welcome the 9% reduction in AS arrival. Obviously he wants more boats. STOP THE PRETENSE

  12. [Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 7:52 pm | Permalink
    General question

    After a middle-aged middle-class family has paid off its mortgage, what should they put their money into?

    Super?
    Property?
    Bonds?
    Stock market?]
    Put it in property especially at the moment when prices are down, you can write off so much, hopefullymake money on it but make sure you buy[ assume }investment, close to transport etc and don’t buy because”you” love it

  13. Super, Diog. Definitely (up to the ATO deductible limit annually). You get the tax breaks going in and tax-free coming out. Use and Industry or Public Fund for the lowest rates and charges and the best returns. Avoid retail funds like the plague. The Tuper trustee will invest your dodh in a mix of securities from shares to property.

    Property? Used to be good for a reliable capital gain, if nothing else, but we’re pretty-well at the height of a classic bubble right now. So not the best choice. Ok if you can negatively gear, but beware the bubble. Tjins=gs could trun south or remain pretty static for years.

    Bonds. Ultra safe but Super will give a far better return, long term.

    Shares. Ok of you follow the market daily and keep on top of things. Poor choice if you haven’t the time for this. Always the chance of a another crash if the US or Eurpoe or both can’t get their act together.

  14. [MrDenmore Interesting comment by Briggs. Time for the media to focus on ideological split in LNP between market liberals and populist reactionaries
    about 2 hours ago]

  15. [The fact that the major Sydney newspaper has put out its own policies and its own cabinet seems to have been ignored.]

    Posting a link to the ‘major Sydney newspaper’ article rather than just a bit of of might get more comments.

  16. Mick

    So you can choose a super fund with mainly bonds?

    I’m very conservative, I really don’t spend much money and want something worry-free.

    I’d certainly want to be able to help my kids out when they leave home in 10 years or so.

  17. Bad gig Zoomster.

    I don’t pretend, in the micro sense, that all is love and kisses between the Greens and Labor and Labor is entitled to feel uneasy about Greens cannibalising the left vote from Labor as this leaves the Greens absolutely nowhere for the foreseeable future.

    On the other hand, Labor cannot do the heavy lift, any more, against the right by itself.

    I have posited that Labor is about 8% adrift of where it vote needs to be in 2013.

    I just can’t see how this vote will come back to Labor currently.

    In the longer haul, and I think Rudd was right here, that Labor needs a very serious look about how it operates at the grass roots level.

    he easy nexus between union and party is becoming a thing of the past. Good Labor members don’t necessarily have to have driven a train or crane to represent the party. Neither does the party need to relay on the white collar unions either.

    All this stuff is for the longer haul.

    It is the here and now which needs addressing and trying to gut the Greens or repudiate them, or they attacking Labor, is serving no other cause than to ensure the tories get in and stay in.

    As a passing thought, what does Labor do for small business? There must be hundreds if not thousand of ex-unionist who start business and frequently jump ship from Labor and vote Liberal – a bit like getting a bigger house I suppose.

    These self-employed people see themselves as equally “working Australian families” but I suspect they feel that Labor does not want them any more. When they own shops in big shopping malls and the rents go through the roof pressured by the big boys, their livelihood is as threatened as the car worker in Elizabeth or Altona.

    Where is Labor for them?

  18. If you are over 60 and still working look into transition to retirement, you can salary sacrifice your earnings into super and withdraw super tax free at the same time.

    Great lurk.

  19. Mari – you’re brave
    [Put it in property especially at the moment when prices are down, you can write off so much, hopefullymake money on it but make sure you buy[ assume }investment, close to transport etc and don’t buy because”you” love it]

    How about considering age of person, earnings, liquidity, spouse and own tax position, land tax, CG tax, interest rates .. and as for property being relatively cheap who knows and over what time horizon. Don’t do it Diogenes.

  20. Boerwar, get this straight:

    * You have the extreme right led by Tony Abbott.

    * You have the centre led by Julia Gillard.

    * And you have the loony left led by Bob Brown.

    *** Beware of the loony left. Disassociate yourselfes from them at all costs where possible.

    *** For reelection purposes, they’re bad news!

  21. [I’d certainly want to be able to help my kids out when they leave home in 10 years or so.]

    I assume your children are now late in their teens? 🙂

  22. Dio

    [After a middle-aged middle-class family has paid off its mortgage, what should they put their money into?

    Super?
    Property?
    Bonds?
    Stock market]

    It all depends on your risk profile and when you propose to retire. My first port of call would be a self-managed superfund as an investment vehicle. You can hardly do worse than many superfunds when it comes to investing your super. The average is that they maintain the real capital value over time. In other words, the spivs skim any profits. There is a capital threshold below which it is not wise to run your own superfund because their is a basic set of costs which you cannot escape. There are various taxation benefits to running your own super fund. You will need professional advice about this.

    You left out cash and/or term deposits, btw.

    Family home is good because it is capital gains tax-free and because of the psychic benefits. Of course when the housing market is either drifting or edging downwards in most sub markets, it is the psychic rewards that are rather more important at the moment. In fact you would probably be better off financially selling your house and renting over the short term.

    As for the rest, there is an awful lot of liquidity around the world chasing not enough value, IMHO. I am sort of glass half empty so we are doing ultra conservative ultra safe term deposits.

    Shares are iffy right now. At the macro level, Japanese shares are at near three decade lows, China is cooling with some humungous debts amongst its banking system and local government with untold numbers of dwelling units empty and its environment is biting back; the US has yet to resolve its housing bust. And then there is Europe with folk now starting to notice that Spain has an official unemployment rate of 23% and a budget deficit bigger than planned. Again.

    Aus gov bonds are safe but would barely get you above the rate of inflation. You would need expert advice.

    Rural properties with top quality soil, reliable irrigation water and close to the right infrastructure are looking good at the moment, after having been in the doldrums because of the drought and lowish commodity prices. The latter are looking good. But you really are taking a significant investment punt that early onset climate change is not going to crap all over your risk framework.

    You could always buy some good booze and enjoy the unfolding of whatever over the next couple of years.

  23. Yeah worth repeating, the typos were intentional.

    Disassociate “youselves” from them (Greens) at all costs where possible. For “any” election purposes, they’re bad news!

  24. [If you are over 60 and still working look into transition to retirement, you can salary sacrifice your earnings into super and withdraw super tax free at the same time.

    Great lurk.]

    Ru, used to be very great, but now the limit is $50K per annum salary sacrifice

  25. Centre

    [Boerwar, get this straight:

    * You have the extreme right led by Tony Abbott.

    * You have the centre led by Julia Gillard.

    * And you have the loony left led by Bob Brown.

    *** Beware of the loony left. Disassociate yourselfes from them at all costs where possible.

    *** For reelection purposes, they’re bad news!]

    Maaate, it is not me who has to be persuaded about right, centre and left. My point remains. While the centre-left parties slug it out between each other, the conservative rightards are in clover.

  26. [don’t listen to the other news, did anyone else?]

    mari – We watched SBS tonight and last night and I have to say that Karen Middleton gave the fairest reports on JG that I have seen from her to date. They were actually very favourable. On Monday night she actually showed a girl calling out “I love you” to the PM. The reports of the PM’s contribution to the Summit have been positive.

    Haven’t seen any other news reports tho.

  27. [listen campfire

    I am sick of your drivel and self referential drross

    go tell someone who cares]

    I see it clearly now. Thanks Gus. But lay off the bottle. It’ll do you no good.

  28. [After a middle-aged middle-class family has paid off its mortgage, what should they put their money into?

    Super?
    Property?
    Bonds?
    Stock market?]

    Diog, my pocket 👿

  29. Diog

    Virtually every super fund allows you any percentage you wish in cash, bonds, shares and so on. Although super is a tax effective environment (usually but again it depends ultimately on your current and future circumstances) it’s not liquid until you retire or at age 60 to an extent. Educate yourself as much as possible and get advice but ultimately it’s your decision based on your perceived needs. Although diversification is a much overused term it’s not a bad starting point but still requires thought.

  30. [fter a middle-aged middle-class family has paid off its mortgage, what should they put their money into?]

    Diog, the best is to increase the value of your principle residence. no CGT or Tax. In other words, move and get a much more expensive house. financially speaking, that’s the best

  31. The policies of the Greens and Labor are light years apart.

    Other than the fact that the Greens are closer to Labor than the Liberals, no other connection between them should be made.

  32. [The reports of the PM’s contribution to the Summit have been positive.

    Haven’t seen any other news reports tho.]

    Oh, I dunno. Try this:

    [Gillard strikes wrong note with ordinary Koreans
    Nobody should be expected to match the charisma or statesmanship of Mr Obama, but Ms Gillard seems to be struggling to find a receptive audience in any crowd.

    She has travelled 10,000 kilometres to find Koreans asking the same questions that Australian voters are asking back home.

    “Why do you think she didn’t answer my question?”, asked a law student, Yoon Hye In, after Ms Gillard’s speech at Yonsei University yesterday afternoon.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/gillard-strikes-wrong-note-with-ordinary-koreans-20120327-1vvsr.html#ixzz1qJ5cJuGd

    A particularly sour and gratuitous little piece of bastardry, I thought.

  33. [Ru, used to be very great, but now the limit is $50K per annum salary sacrifice]

    $50k @ 15% or keeping it ~ 31% topping up the money you take out at 0% makes sense to me.

  34. And Diog only use an industry fund (low fees). I wouldn’t jump to set up a self-managed fund, they’ve got headaches of their own and if you don’t understand the structure and requirements you’re at the mercy of accountants and financial planners, and their fees.

  35. Thank you all.

    Tell me to shut up if this is getting boring or self-indulgent.

    What are the ups and downs of a self-managed superfund vs an industry super fund?

  36. [Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 8:05 pm | Permalink
    Mick

    So you can choose a super fund with mainly bonds?]

    If I may….

    Yes. Most funds (Public, Industry and Petail) have a range of Investment options available to investors and you can choose the mix of investments you want: Mostly bonds with some shares and property; Mostly shares with some bonds and property etc etc.

    They’ll invest your dosh accordingly.

  37. BB @ 889

    See 768 of mine on the same topic. Ms Gillard clearly mishandled the answer and I have proposed a framework for a briefing for an answer which would have had far more satisfactory results.

  38. [I thought it was reasonable to point out that a radio station which continually lamented the government’s inability to manage money (thus “sending the nation broke”, etc.) was patently unable to manage its own money and patently unable to live within its earnings, to the point of trading while insolvent and leaving its contractors in the lurch to the tune of millions of dollars.]

    BB – that’s the bit that I like. MTR couldn’t manage its business affairs and who is behind Macquarie Radio – John Singleton with Alan Jones holding a fair stake. Wonderful irony there.

  39. Diogs.

    Lets start with a few myths.

    Not all industry funds are cheaper than all retail funds. do your research.

    Super is a tax environment not an investment or asset class. It provides great benefits – the more you can get in the more tax free income you can draw down in pension phase.

    property is not “the best” investment. no one asset class is. they all have different characteristics and can play their own unique role in a well diversified portfolio.

    smsf’s aren’t all they’re cracked up to be. to be cheaper than a super fund you need about $250k in it. plus you must want to be very hands on. they take looking after.

    most super funds – industry, retail or smsf – give enough selection such that you can choose a very aggressive or very conservative investment option. make you sure you are in a fund that has the style of investment you want.

    not all financial planners are sharks and spivs. but ask alot of questions about how they earn their money, and what service they will provide. some people find it hard to believe but they really can help especially as one nears retirement. there are a lot of rules and its their job to know them. plus if you want bonds or cash they must invest it that way.

    good luck. and read and don’t be scared to ask plenty of questions.

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