Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows no change on last week, bar a one point drop in the Greens vote to 10 per cent: the Coalition is on 49 per cent of the primary vote and Labor on 32 per cent, with the Coalition’s two-party lead at 56-44. Essential also found plenty of interesting questions to ask about the Labor leadership. Respondents were asked to evaluate the performance of various actors during the challenge, with Kevin Rudd coming out least badly (33 per cent good, 35 per cent poor), “Labor Party ministers” the worst (10 per cent and 52 per cent), the media also very poorly (14 per cent and 43 per cent), Julia Gillard not well at all (23 per cent and 49 per cent) and Tony Abbott hardly better even if it might be hard to recall what he did exactly (25 per cent and 40 per cent).

Sixty-two per cent of respondents said the leadership challenge was bad for the government and 47 per cent that it has made them less likely to vote Labor (64 per cent among Coalition supporters, obviously including many who wouldn’t vote Labor in a pink fit), against 13 per cent who said it was a good thing and another 13 per cent (or perhaps the same 13 per cent) who they were more likely to vote Labor. A question on Kevin Rudd’s future produces a miraculously even three-way split with 29 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and again challenge for the leadership, 28 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and not challenge for the leadership and 30 per cent saying he should resign from parliament.

Respondents were asked to indicate whether they supported the Australian system of leaders being elected by MPs (36 per cent), American-style presidential primaries (31 per cent) and British-style election by both MPs and party members (11 per cent). Fifty-six per cent believed MPs should be guided by public opinion in leadership contests against 30 per cent by who they believed was the best person. The poll also points to a slight increase in support for an early election since the end of January, up three to 44 per cent with support for a completed term down two to 46 per cent.

We have also had Newspoll publish results from last week’s polling on the most important political issues and the best party to handle them. Such figures are invariably very closely associated with voting intention, and since this was a 53-47 poll result, it finds Labor improving considerably since the question was last asked as part of the poll of October 7-9, which was a 57-43 result. Labor has recovered big leads on its traditional strong suits of health, education, industrial relations and climate change, and closed the gap on the economy, interest rates and national security. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,780 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  3. [It’s a competitive business being obscenely rich.]

    Pegasus, solly Horsey,

    Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc is very rich. We get $3.5B from the Diet to cleanup the Fukushima shits.

    he he he, we havent done a thing yet, and dont intent to, We just take the moneys and run.

    But we will give the moneys to the people, the real victims of the Tsunami.

    Our motto is “Greed is good with a heart of Gold”. Senorita, comprehendo?

  7. On Smith and the Military – an observation:

    Duncan Lewis, the current Secretary of the Department of Defence, appointed by the Labor Government, is the first ex-military officer to be the Secretary. He is a retired Major-General. He knows well how the military plays the game.

    I suspect he has not been placed in the job without purpose and although he is not often in the public eye may play an important part in any ‘tussle’ over control.

  9. I watched Stephen Smith’s interview on 7.30 yesterday and heard his interview on RN this morning.

    To re-fresh my memory, I re-visited sources publicly available on the internet that covered what happened at the time.

    In doing so my view has not changed.

    Stephen Smith has no reason to apologise and I commend him for standing his ground.

    Abuse within the ADF has been reported on for many decades.

    The Defence Department has a track record of chewing up and spitting out any Defence Minister who attempts to make any reform of any kind, including its culture.

  10. confessions + victoria

    Today is International Women’s Day so not too surprising that Rudd would make some tweet involving it. Nothing “sinister” I’m sure.

  11. Hi PBers

    I haven’t posted for a while. Is it just me, or since the settlement of the leadership issue in the ALP have things got back into some type of normality – meaning there isn’t the daily sense of chaos that was so well tapped by Abbott and the MSM. This augers very well for the Govt IMHO. The next poll will be very interesting. Abbott seems to have either run out of puff or this is a deliberate tactic by Credlin to make him appear more prime ministerial.

  12. All the Coalition should read the crit of Hockey’s speech by The Kouk.
    But how many of them would even understand it.
    Barnaby? Are you there?

  16. [LNP candidate ran porn website]

    On the bright side sex party preferences might flow to him. Frankly I think it is a bit stuffy to sack him. If it was a legal business and taxes paid, of course.

  20. “Australia should ideally be running very large budget surpluses. This would allow money to be put aside for a rainy day.” Joe Hockey

    The ignorance of that comment is astounding. First of all, the exact size of the surplus (or deficit) should be determined by the economic conditions of the day. It’s not a p*ssing contest and the Coalition and its supporters in the media treat us like idiots when the speak like this.

    Second of all, the logic of this statement is: we should have a surplus in case we need to spend it; but we should never spend it, because we need a surplus in case we need to spend it.

    Is Joseph Heller writing the Coalition’s policies?

  21. daretotread,

    Your apology was not warranted as I did not take offence. Making an assumption about my gender is not an infraction of the code of civil discourse.

    Rest assured, if I was a person who demanded apologies you wouldn’t make my list. I appreciate that your intent was honourable when you sought to defend me and thank you for it.

    All is okay, I can look after myself. Just focus on what you want to communicate to PBland and expend your time and energy on that rather than being sidetracked.

  22. [Thanks, Finnigans, but can you make the Newscorpse thingy the first inquiry or concurrent?]

    Joe, i will make my submission to His Honour.

  25. [with Jim Spigelman’s appointment the ABC gets:

    (a) the forensic skills of a highly rated barrister;
    (b) the decision making skills of a judge;
    (c) the reviewing skills of a Court of Appeal judge;
    (d) the administrative skills of a head of jurisdiction;
    (e) someone with unimpeachable social skills and conscious;
    (f) a person with a very gloal outlook on things.

    A worthy selection.]

    Hear! Hear! shellbell.

    But the best slipped your mind:
    (g) Totally pis^es-off NewsLtd, Canberra Press Gallery, most ABC presenters/ hacks (inc Uhlmann, Fran, Mz Curtis etc) the Liberal Party, esp its Dear Leader & his Parliamentary colleagues.

  28. [ Spigelman as ABC Chairperson. The first thing the Judge should do is to set up an inquiry to the proliferation & infiltration of #IPA in ABC ]

    Seconded and thirded.

    Bit troubling, though, that Turnbull has reportedly welcomed the appointment. And BOF?

    +++

    Boerwar,

    Being unconscious at the helm is de rigueur for all crew at the ABC; Toolman demonstrates the policy in action …

  30. The Finnigans
    [Pegasus]
    In the spirit of rewarding good behaviour with positive reinforcement…. Now that felt good didn’t it.

  32. At one point in my career I was a Staff Cadet at Duntoon.

    Bastardisation was alive and virulent then (though not with a sexual element), was then subject to parliamentary scrutiny and thus the problem was ‘”fixed”

    PBers have probably heard Andrew Wilkie admit, while at Duntroon, that he was engaged in Bastardisation – and this was long after my time there – and so nothing was “fixed” at all because the military, is a law unto itself in regard to these matters.

    Indicative was the view at the time, that the Cadet Under Officer from an an elite boys school was not allowed to get above himself in regard to the boy from a government hight school, so all had to brought down to the same level – through “hazing” as it is called in West Point – and thus all Fourth Class were called the “Shit of Kings” while all in the Graduating Class were called “The King of Shits”.

    It is not that this kind of stuff happened, but it continued to happen, still happens and the military down play it or cover it up. They are largely incapable of dealing with mixed gender issues at the moment.

    Interestingly, less than half of my cohort graduated as officers. What a waste.

  33. [Bit troubling, though, that Turnbull has reportedly welcomed the appointment. And BOF?]

    Malcolm Turnbull ‏ @TurnbullMalcolm Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    Transcript – discussing foreshadowed appointment of Jim Spigelman as Chairman of ABC – ABC News Radio – 8 March 2012

    TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏ @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
    @TurnbullMalcolm Malcolm, i hope you are not stirring for the #LibSpill

  34. [Bit troubling, though, that Turnbull has reportedly welcomed the appointment. And BOF?]

    If it was Abbott or one of his cronies I’d really be concerned!

  36. [The Finnigans

    Pegasus

    In the spirit of rewarding good behaviour with positive reinforcement…. Now that felt good didn’t it.]

    now Horsey, dont got carried away. i always feel good.

  37. [Turnbull has reportedly welcomed the appointment.]

    He continues to brand differentiate. The msm prefer to look the other way.

  39. The Finnigans,

    Regarding you I never get carried away. I just wanted to acknowledge that you have made a baby step on the path towards civil and mature discourse.

  40. Super @ 2333

    I spent 20 years in uniform (and subsequently 12 years working for Defence), and can well attest to the culture of bullying that exists witin it.

    Would you agree with my observations that there is a lack of any capacity for critical thinking and self reflection among a great number (not all) of the officers? Even those that have such capabilities are pretty much obliged to keep it to themselves and not speak out.

  41. [“Australia should ideally be running very large budget surpluses. This would allow money to be put aside for a rainy day.” Joe Hockey]

    Like funding the Opposition’s A$ 70 billion – or whatever the latest astronomical Budget Black Hole figure their “policies” have created? So surpluses are back in favour with the LNP, are they? Coz they NEED a huge surplus to balance their Budget?

    If so, why are so many of the Oppo’s MSM cheer-squad using the current Euro/ GFC2 excuse to try to talk Swan out of one? Couldn’t be that the last thing the LNP wants is for Swan to get the Budget back in the Black, then get re-elected eh?

    Joe’s effort couldn’t possible be another case of Hello! Hello all you stupid people! Stop looking in the tidy pretty front yard when I’ve put such effort into creating a fake, film-set shambles in the back! could it?

  42. Pegasus @ 2347

    Pegasus
    Posted Thursday, March 8, 2012 at 10:37 am | Permalink
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/officer-courtmartialled-for-reaction-to-racial-slur-20120303-1ua4j.html

    AN AUSTRALIAN army officer of Chinese descent has been court-martialled after objecting to a racist slur made by a senior Defence Department official.

    Major Li alleges he was the victim of ”systematic and discriminatory treatment”. He is appealing the court martial.

    Several military officials who have examined the complaints have suggested his suspension was unwarranted.

    An inquiry by the Inspector-General Australian Defence Force found ”there were systematic failings within Defence Legal in that you (Major Li) were suspended without procedural fairness”.

    I heard that mentioned on radio a few days ago and read the article.

    I am cheering for Major Li but fear that whatever the outcome, his future prospects in the military will be limited. They should not be.

  43. [I am cheering for Major Li but fear that whatever the outcome, his future prospects in the military will be limited. They should not be.]

    If you complain they go even harder on you.

    This is exactly Smith’s point. It’s looks bad and it is bad.

  44. [Joe’s effort couldn’t possible be another case of Hello! Hello all you stupid people! Stop looking in the tidy pretty front yard when I’ve put such effort into creating a fake, film-set shambles in the back! could it?]

    If Hungry Joe (thanks Poroti) doesn’t think the ongoing GFC is a rainy day then we’re in a bit of trouble.

  45. [Gordon Graham
    @gordongraham
    Abbott says his PPL scheme will define his leadership … That hints that he’s under attack from a lot of people from within the Coalition]

  46. “Australia should ideally be running very large budget surpluses. This would allow money to be put aside for a rainy day.” Why doesn’t someone ask him to define “rainy day”? The GFC clearly doesn’t qualify, so what does?

  49. [Mr Andrews later said in a statement he was not convinced the trial would go ahead because gaming manufacturers had told him the timeframe for the trial was unrealistic and they couldn’t produce new machines in time.

    “I’m concerned that taxpayer dollars will go from the Labor government to, among others, Labor clubs in the ACT,” he said.

    “Ultimately gaming is a state issue, and I believe we shouldn’t continue to erode the powers and responsibilities of the states.”]
    [Anti-pokies crusader Mr Wilkie said he was disappointed with the opposition’s silence.

    “It’s simply not good enough for the opposition to put this in the too hard basket,” he said.

    He said the government’s broken promise “was dreadful behaviour and its watered-down pokies package is patently unsatisfactory without amendments”.

    “But at least the government has something on the table which is more than can be said for the opposition right now.”]

    Is Wilkie still threatening to vote with the coalition against the govt’s bills? What a tangled web we weave….

    http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/breaking-news/federal-opposition-tight-lipped-on-pokies-policy/story-e6frg12u-1226292342895

  50. [Gordon Graham
    @gordongraham
    Abbott says his PPL scheme will define his leadership … That hints that he’s under attack from a lot of people from within the Coalition]

    So if the policy is changed the leader will also be changed.

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