Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows no change on last week, bar a one point drop in the Greens vote to 10 per cent: the Coalition is on 49 per cent of the primary vote and Labor on 32 per cent, with the Coalition’s two-party lead at 56-44. Essential also found plenty of interesting questions to ask about the Labor leadership. Respondents were asked to evaluate the performance of various actors during the challenge, with Kevin Rudd coming out least badly (33 per cent good, 35 per cent poor), “Labor Party ministers” the worst (10 per cent and 52 per cent), the media also very poorly (14 per cent and 43 per cent), Julia Gillard not well at all (23 per cent and 49 per cent) and Tony Abbott hardly better even if it might be hard to recall what he did exactly (25 per cent and 40 per cent).

Sixty-two per cent of respondents said the leadership challenge was bad for the government and 47 per cent that it has made them less likely to vote Labor (64 per cent among Coalition supporters, obviously including many who wouldn’t vote Labor in a pink fit), against 13 per cent who said it was a good thing and another 13 per cent (or perhaps the same 13 per cent) who they were more likely to vote Labor. A question on Kevin Rudd’s future produces a miraculously even three-way split with 29 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and again challenge for the leadership, 28 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and not challenge for the leadership and 30 per cent saying he should resign from parliament.

Respondents were asked to indicate whether they supported the Australian system of leaders being elected by MPs (36 per cent), American-style presidential primaries (31 per cent) and British-style election by both MPs and party members (11 per cent). Fifty-six per cent believed MPs should be guided by public opinion in leadership contests against 30 per cent by who they believed was the best person. The poll also points to a slight increase in support for an early election since the end of January, up three to 44 per cent with support for a completed term down two to 46 per cent.

We have also had Newspoll publish results from last week’s polling on the most important political issues and the best party to handle them. Such figures are invariably very closely associated with voting intention, and since this was a 53-47 poll result, it finds Labor improving considerably since the question was last asked as part of the poll of October 7-9, which was a 57-43 result. Labor has recovered big leads on its traditional strong suits of health, education, industrial relations and climate change, and closed the gap on the economy, interest rates and national security. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,780 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  3. [@gordongraham
    Abbott says his PPL scheme will define his leadership]
    Hmm let’s see, Coalition PPL = FAIL . Yep, definition seems O.K. to me.

  4. confessions

    I always said that Wilkie would have to realise eventually that what the govt has to offer on gambling reform is better than SFA being offered by the other mob

  5. poroti @ 2360

    poroti
    Posted Thursday, March 8, 2012 at 10:50 am | Permalink
    confessions + victoria

    Today is International Women’s Day so not too surprising that Rudd would make some tweet involving it. Nothing “sinister” I’m sure.

    But then you don’t suffer from “Rudd paranoia”.

  7. [Gordon Graham
    @gordongraham
    Abbott says his PPL scheme will define his leadership … That hints that he’s under attack from a lot of people from within the Coalition]

    Principally because it’s a stupid policy, but nah… couldn’t be that.

    It’s a big mistake for Abbott to die in a ditch for this as it’s such a stupid policy. Having said that I do wish that the government would critique the policy from the point of view of “policy”, rather than just repeating the usual mantra about $70 billion Black Hole” and “taxing business” etc.

    It’s BAD POLICY, a brain fart “Run It Up The Flagpole So It Can Be Shot Down” concept, something you throw out at an “Ideas” seminar as a straw man, not turn into formal policy… and it also happens to be expensive and discriminatory to the unlucky business that have to pay for it, valuing wealthy people’s babies more than poor people’s. Unfair in every way.

  8. “Australia should ideally be running very large budget surpluses. This would allow money to be put aside for a rainy day.” Joe Hockey

    The Kouk answered this yonks ago (November last year in fact)- as usual Hockey is a day later and more than a dollar short –

    the Howard Government was the highest taxing government in Australia’s history, made me consider the following point.

    If the Labor Government had the same tax receipts as the peak level received by the Howard Government (24.1% of GDP), there would have been only one deficit (2009-10) and rather than net debt peaking at around $110 billion, the Government would have net financial assets of around $201 billion in June 2013.

    Any mug can record a Budget surplus if you tax the tripe out of the people. Just ask the Sheriff of Nottingham – or John Howard.

    http://stephenkoukoulas.blogspot.com.au/2011/11/update-more-great-big-new-facts-on-tax.html

  9. TH/poroti

    Appears Abbott held a presser earlier. Did not see it myself.

    He is sticking by his PPL which is a great big new tax on 3000 busnesses.

  10. With Jim Spigelman, there will not be any inquiries or hairdryer treatment of individuals.

    He had 13 years of managing the many and varied talents of scores of Supreme Court judges, the excesses of lower court judges, hundreds of litigants and a few Labor Attorney-Generals (he delayed his retirement until after Labor was tossed in NSW maybe for fear of who they would replace him with).

    Everything will be measured and conciliatory. His focus/interest I suspect will be on arts and sciences.

    The first Chairman’s message in the ABC annual report will be praiseworthy of the board and Mr Scott, IMHO.

  14. Victoria

    I have already been engaged in feedback to Smith’s office and the enquiry that followed.

    The emphasis seems to have shifted to what sexual issues have come to the surface.

    However, I have no complaint with the process.

    Defence is a hard portfolio.

    Smith is the man for the job and owes the Blimps nothing.

  15. [ What are the fibs to do with Abbott? ]

    Rub his tummy? From my blinkered perspective, Mr Abbott is a beautiful person,
    engaged in a personal struggle.

    He is an ornament to the Parliament and deserves to be stuffed for posterity. This is a long process and should be carried out with due process, that is, slowly.

  17. [or this is a deliberate tactic by Credlin to make him appear more prime ministerial]

    Just trying to conceive of this character as “Prime Ministerial” boggles the mind! I mean, he’s barely capable of stringing more than a three-word slogan together. And, asked an unscripted question, he stammers like a mad thing and skedaddles, as the following video shows:

    http://tinyurl.com/3pyvl64

    What a moron.

  18. Son of foro @ 2370

    Is Joseph Heller writing the Coalition’s policies?

    No. Joseph Heller at least had literary talent.

    It is hard to see any of these bozos having any talent.

  21. [Anti-pokies crusader Mr Wilkie said he was disappointed with the opposition’s silence.

    “It’s simply not good enough for the opposition to put this in the too hard basket,” he said.

    He said the government’s broken promise “was dreadful behaviour and its watered-down pokies package is patently unsatisfactory without amendments”.

    “But at least the government has something on the table which is more than can be said for the opposition right now.”

    First time in a while Ive seen Wilkie put his policy ahead of his personal pride. That’s encouraging, I suppose.

  26. Pegasus

    [Stephen Smith has no reason to apologise and I commend him for standing his ground.

    Abuse within the ADF has been reported on for many decades.

    The Defence Department has a track record of chewing up and spitting out any Defence Minister who attempts to make any reform of any kind, including its culture.]

    I am in total agreement with you and Smith gives every impression of really digging in.

  27. Very interesting article from *our* Graeme Orr –

    Finkelstein’s one-stop shop

    Despite the reaction of the press, the Finkelstein inquiry’s key recommendation deserves support, writes Graeme Orr

    …In other words, an independent inquiry has recommended the creation of an independent agency to conciliate mild remedies to enhance media accountability, with the independent courts having backstop powers to enforce (or overturn) any remedy. For a newspaper that is normally Australia’s most accurate and analytical to spin this into the headline, “Labor plan to control media,” is telling in itself.

    …Perhaps unsurprisingly, the print media has led the charge against the inquiry and report. Newspapers have long enjoyed a privileged position compared to the broadcast media. Television and radio has, virtually since its inception, been subject to a far more prescriptive and broad-ranging regulatory regime than Finkelstein’s proposed council.

    …There is no strong explanation why the press was never regulated like the broadcast media. One rationale is that anyone can set up a press, whereas the costs of broadcasting are much higher. But that misses the point: media regulation is not aimed at those distributing photocopied pamphlets. Indeed, by offering an efficient alternative to the chilling threat of defamation litigation, Finkelstein’s model may save small or community based outlets some sleepless nights.

    …More broadly, the report emerges during an ongoing debate about the inter-relationship of power, wealth, politics and accountability (or its lack) in contemporary Australia.

    More here –
    http://inside.org.au/finkelstein-one-stop-shop/

  28. [Abbott says his PPL scheme will define his leadership]

    It was suggested by his wife and daughters, so, he cannot let it GO!.

  29. So who is demanding that Stephen Smith apologise?

    It’s nobody from the Defence Force that I am aware of. Personally I’d be telling Neil James and Hugh White to go jump.

  30. Tricot
    The Colonel Blimps may be out in force but they will be well out numbered by people like you. There was a wave of support for Smith at the time when he spoke out about the need to change the culture. Much of it coming from people who had been or are in the system. People who knew that the sweet soothing reassurances from the Colonel Blimps and Colonel Bogies was bunkum.

  31. Tricot @ 2382

    My son was a cadet at Duntroon in 2001. From what he has told me nothing had changed then from the situation you decribe. He hated the bastardisation and the racism he found there. He left after 12 months, just before Howard got us into Afghanistan. From what he has said I don’t think anything at Duntroon was ever ‘fixed’, the system there seems to depend on a culture that requires poor behaviour and the entrenching of some very nasty attitudes towards anyone who is not white and male.

    The defence forces need to clean up their culture. It’s no wonder that they struggle to get recruits.

  32. Just watching a news item from USA about pensions.

    A lot of city councils in USA are facing bankruptcy because of their over generous pension schemes to their employees. Overall, the pension liability has gone up some 300% over the last 12 years and 55% of their budgets is being eaten up by pension payments.

    For example, the San Diego Firefighters can retire at 50 with $90K per annum for life.

    It appears it is the same old story in Japan, Greence, Italy, Belgium and many other European countries.

    Over generous pension schemes, aging population and people are living longer is the real time bomb everywhere.

    Thanks God for PJK, compulsory Super and the mentality of we look after our own retirement needs.

  35. [the system there seems to depend on a culture that requires poor behaviour and the entrenching of some very nasty attitudes towards anyone who is not white and male. ]

    I’ve never been to Duntroon but that is certainly how it appears to me.

  39. Jim Spigelman was one of those who accompanied Charles Perkins on the “Freedom Ride” in 1965 protesting about the discrimination against Aborigines

    And that action of his youth is in line with a life of public service and dedication to social justice that has followed.

  40. leone

    For the very reasons you outlined in your post @ 2431 my son was told that while he would never join the Defence Force while he lived under my roof.

  42. [Many countries have failed to make the structural reforms necessary, and they are paying big time now]

    Vic, Singapore also has a very good pension schme. It’s called CPF, Central Provident Fund.

    You have to contribute up to 30% of salary salary plus “real” employer contribution.

    There are a couple of big flaws:

    1. It allows the people to draw from the pension fund to buy their own house. The consequence is that people dont have enough fund left to live by when they do retire.

    2. The Govt has total control over the returns, they usually get only between 1 to 2% regardless of the market.

    Our Super Scheme is so much better.

  43. [[Mark Scott ‏ @abcmarkscott
    Two major ABC appointments: Angela Clark – Director of Innovation; Bruce Belsham – head of Current Affairs. http://bit.ly/x7fE8d

    Ta, Lizzie.

    To think I though today’s OO efforts from the 3 Ss (Shanners, Sheridan, Siodinos) were about as close as they could get to totally sha^ themselves without actually dying of dysentery!

    But that was before the new ABC and Future Fund appointments!

  46. The Finnigans @ 2432

    Over generous pension schemes, aging population and people are living longer is the real time bomb everywhere.

    No problem for those on the over generous pension schemes but certainly a problem for those organisations having to fund them.

    The other issue of people living longer and aging population, should not really be a problem at all provided we adjust to it.

    People will need to work longer and for a great many this is not a problem as they want to. We will just end up with an older (on average) workforce.

    The real problem is age discrimination and the reluctance of employers to hire older people and indeed, recruiters to even put older people forward for jobs. At the same time some will rant about a ‘skills shortage’ when there are plenty of highly skilled, mature workers available.

  49. Victoria I will post my response on the other thread for you. I think we are wandering over to the wrong side of the road and don’t want to get booked 🙂

  50. [It was suggested by his wife and daughters, so, he cannot let it GO!.]

    Don’t forget Cardinal Pell. His flock isn’t having nearly enough offspring these days.

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