Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows no change on last week, bar a one point drop in the Greens vote to 10 per cent: the Coalition is on 49 per cent of the primary vote and Labor on 32 per cent, with the Coalition’s two-party lead at 56-44. Essential also found plenty of interesting questions to ask about the Labor leadership. Respondents were asked to evaluate the performance of various actors during the challenge, with Kevin Rudd coming out least badly (33 per cent good, 35 per cent poor), “Labor Party ministers” the worst (10 per cent and 52 per cent), the media also very poorly (14 per cent and 43 per cent), Julia Gillard not well at all (23 per cent and 49 per cent) and Tony Abbott hardly better even if it might be hard to recall what he did exactly (25 per cent and 40 per cent).

Sixty-two per cent of respondents said the leadership challenge was bad for the government and 47 per cent that it has made them less likely to vote Labor (64 per cent among Coalition supporters, obviously including many who wouldn’t vote Labor in a pink fit), against 13 per cent who said it was a good thing and another 13 per cent (or perhaps the same 13 per cent) who they were more likely to vote Labor. A question on Kevin Rudd’s future produces a miraculously even three-way split with 29 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and again challenge for the leadership, 28 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and not challenge for the leadership and 30 per cent saying he should resign from parliament.

Respondents were asked to indicate whether they supported the Australian system of leaders being elected by MPs (36 per cent), American-style presidential primaries (31 per cent) and British-style election by both MPs and party members (11 per cent). Fifty-six per cent believed MPs should be guided by public opinion in leadership contests against 30 per cent by who they believed was the best person. The poll also points to a slight increase in support for an early election since the end of January, up three to 44 per cent with support for a completed term down two to 46 per cent.

We have also had Newspoll publish results from last week’s polling on the most important political issues and the best party to handle them. Such figures are invariably very closely associated with voting intention, and since this was a 53-47 poll result, it finds Labor improving considerably since the question was last asked as part of the poll of October 7-9, which was a 57-43 result. Labor has recovered big leads on its traditional strong suits of health, education, industrial relations and climate change, and closed the gap on the economy, interest rates and national security. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,780 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. [No problem for those on the over generous pension schemes but certainly a problem for those organisations having to fund them.]

    Bemused, you must be kidding.

    When the Organisations that fund the pensions, eg: A country like Greece or A City Council or even a private company goes bankrupt. The pensioners suffer. who is going to pick up the tap. Hey get real.

  2. Leone@2431 and Poroti

    Well, it is a real shame good military careers are ruined essentially by the system and the bullies they hide.

    An anecdote: For the first few days in Duntroon the new SC’s are essentially trapped and it seems to be the job of the Third Years to put the Bastardisation into practice.

    On one occasion I was asked to tell some clown how many links there were in the chain around the grave of General Bridge’s grave overlooking Duntroon on the hill. Of course, I was vaguely aware of someone called Bridges as he had been a former commandant of the college and he was shot by a sniper at Gallopoli. He is venerated.

    Together with two others we raced to the top of the hill and found there was cable around the grave which we duly reported back. We were then abused and asked how many strands in the cable and F####%## go and find out.

    When I came back, a noose was tied around my neck, with a short lead, and I had to hang on to this and shout at the top of my voice “I’m trying to hang myself!” while walking around the corridors of the barracks.

    This is just a couple of stories from those many years ago and would seem to some to be funny. They were not at the time.

    When I did my exit from Duntroon – thankfully without having to put up with more of this stuff – I made it known to the Commandant that I thought he and his establishment needed a bit of a shake up. But, I was told, what I and others put up with was part of a glorious tradition, and, in any event, in the future I could have “got my own back” when it became my turn to dish it out.

    I always goad the Blimps by suggesting our greatest general Sir John Monash, was not a graduate of Duntroon, was not a full-time soldier, was and engineer and a Jewish person to boot, and a Victorian, when they come the “it’s all tradition” crap with me.

    The really, really sad thing, is despite the long history – and self-admitted by those who actually were part of the military or academic at Duntroon, is that it is still going on.

    I am not against a professional officer cadre but it must move with the times.

  3. MTBW

    I wan’t happy when my son announced his decision to join the army, but he was an adult. As he wasn’t living at home I couldn’t lock him in his room until he came to his senses. He actually wanted to go in as an ordinary recruit and learn a trade, but because he had some management skills the boffins in charge decided he was officer material and convined him Dun troon was where he should be. He would have stayed if the culture of the place had been tolerable. I just woner how many really great young people are bailing out because they too can’t face the appalling defence culture. If Stephen Smith can help get rid of some of these entrenched 18th century attitudes then he will have achieved something great.

  4. [ She (Angela Clark) has worked in a number of media roles, firstly, in revolutionising the outdoor advertising industry as Managing Director of JCDecaux Australia, then as CEO with Macquarie Radio Network, and most recently as Founder of hyper local community sites Streetcorner.com.au & Everymap.com.au. ]

    That background does not fill me with confidence, to put it mildly. She sounds like an advertising cowgirl. The last thing the ABC needs is more advertising.

  5. The Finnigans @ 2542

    No problem for those on the over generous pension schemes but certainly a problem for those organisations having to fund them.

    Bemused, you must be kidding.

    When the Organisations that fund the pensions, eg: A country like Greece or A City Council or even a private company goes bankrupt. The pensioners suffer. who is going to pick up the tap. Hey get real.

    Read my words after ‘but’.
    While ever those organisations can stagger along under their burden, the pension recipients are sitting pretty.

    If collapses occur then of course you are correct.

  6. Victoria

    Long time ago now. My main gripe is that all this rubbish is counter productive and such a waste.

    As you and Leone have both pointed out, it is the culture which needs a change. I am a SC today and 30 years later I am Commandant.

    What was good enough for me to put up with then, I will close a blind eye to now.

    That is what Smith is up against. All power to him.

  7. Tricot

    Yes Smith is up against it. It is a little concerning to say the least.

    Anyhow catch you bludgers later, got a few errands to run

  8. Great. Abbott’s policies are being dictated by his wife and daughters. Just what we need. Three over-privileged young women who do not yet have kids and a wife who runs a child care centre have decided that the more money you earn the higher your PPL entitlement should be.

    I thought Janette Howard had far too much influnece on her husband’s policy making but Abbott is taking it even further. What will the Abbott women decide we should all pay for next?

  9. bemused
    [The real problem is age discrimination and the reluctance of employers to hire older people and indeed, recruiters to even put older people forward for jobs. At the same time some will rant about a ‘skills shortage’ when there are plenty of highly skilled, mature workers available.]

    This is one of my hobby-horses, as you probably already know.

  10. leone

    [I just woner how many really great young people are bailing out because they too can’t face the appalling defence culture. If Stephen Smith can help get rid of some of these entrenched 18th century attitudes then he will have achieved something great.]

    And given his performance last night while standing in the company of the hierarchy I feel certain that he will give it his best shot.

    BTW My rules to my son also included the Police Force and owning a motorbike. He bought a motor bike after he married.

  11. It seems that Mark Scott continues his push to dumb down the ABC and make it “competitive” with the commercials.
    Of course the RWers on the Board would have applauded this – probably wanted to add advertisements as well.
    But it doesn’t sit well with the (blush) better educated section of Oz who would rather see quality, arts and superb documentaries.
    BTW, my OH is furious that they have spoilt his Sundays by mangling the Arts section.

  12. White was interviewed on TV or Sky (can’t remember which, Sky I think) very recently criticising the government and the current defence minister. Oh yeah that’s right, he was suggesting that Smith is not fit (or words to that effect) to be not only Defence Minister but FA Minister as well.

    Yep, both Neil James and White can go jump!

  13. [ She (Angela Clark) has worked in a number of media roles, firstly, in revolutionising the outdoor advertising industry as Managing Director of JCDecaux Australia, then as CEO with Macquarie Radio Network, and most recently as Founder of hyper local community sites Streetcorner.com.au & Everymap.com.au. ]

    The bit about Macquarie Radio worries me. Australia’s biggest purveyor of hate talk on the broadcast medium.

  14. The pic the other day of T. Abbott looking particularly reptilian, took me back to my childhood in the country. I learned early that snakes shed their skin. It was a time of wonder.

    After seeing the mate’s dog die painfully after being bitten by a small brown, I became wary of snakes, but did not fear them. Make plenty of noise and they will go away, except in the mating season, when they tend to get a bit aggro.

    When T. Abbott sheds his skin, what will emerge?

  15. [Mark Scott continues his push to dumb down the ABC and make it “competitive” with the commercials]

    It’s obvious they’re seeking to attract a more conservative audience. Might get the backs of the commercial media up, since they’re cater for the same type.

  16. Make plenty of noise and they will go away, except in the mating season

    :monkey: has mating season 24/7/52?

  17. Abbott and the lovely Michaelia Cash at a presser bemoaning Smith’s “botching” of the Duntroon issue, etc.
    Not a convincing performance!

  18. lizzie @ 2466

    This is one of my hobby-horses, as you probably already know.

    I didn’t know that but it is certainly one of mine.

    I am happy to collaborate with you if you are doing anything to pursue it.

  19. [ Macquarie Radio is 2gb!! ]

    Victoria,

    Dogs wept. Who made this appointment? The present board? Can it be quashed?

    I had a minor quibble about the new chairman, but – thanks to PBers replies – all sweet.

  20. lizzie
    Posted Thursday, March 8, 2012 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

    It seems that Mark Scott continues his push to dumb down the ABC and make it “competitive” with the commercials.

    It smells of Scott getting in before the new Board Chairman takes up duty – in the sameway as Scott’s reappointment as MD was made.

    I’m sure all the favorable comments about Jim Spigelman are correct. I just hope he also has enough mongrel in him to take on the tories that are actually destroying the ABC.

  21. [Abbott and the lovely Michaelia Cash at a presser bemoaning Smith’s “botching” of the Duntroon issue, etc.]

    Today’s Liberal party: standing up for Billionaire Miners, Big Tobacco, Big Media and Duntroon Bullies!

  22. bemused @ 2477

    I just try to point out ageism whenever it occurs, but without sounding like a grumpy old fart. I’m not going to chain myself to any railings 🙂
    A lot of the time it’s unconscious. Everyone thinks that “getting old” occurs twenty years beyond their own age.
    But when the govt is raising the retiring age, they also need to run programs to remind business that brains don’t die at 40, much less 60.

  23. You know it really is amazing!

    I wonder if the very people requesting that Smith apologises are the ones who supported Howard and W Bush in the war with Iraq based on the false pretences that they still possesed WMD’s.

    I’ll tell you who should be making the apology, not only for the unnecessy misery and loss of life caused, but more importantly, have a look at the debt of the US and world markets because of it. 😡

  24. Bill Shorten is getting stuck into Abbott’s criticism of the FWA, pointing out that he was the minister responsible for it in 2001.

    The ABC feels it necessary to cut away to go for a flood update.

    Situation normal.

  25. Centre – White is openly critical of involvement in Afghanistan, Australia being to close to the US in regard to China and is a strategic policy ‘wonk’.

    I’d be surprised if he’d said anything about the ADFA investigations.

  26. lizzie

    [But when the govt is raising the retiring age, they also need to run programs to remind business that brains don’t die at 40, much less 60.]

    Have you ever thought about making an appointment with your Federal Member and raising that issue?

  27. Some erudite comments on Alan Jones’ petition to recall the government:
    http://www.directdemocracy.org.au/index.php/get-involved/sign-the-petition?cdpetitions_limitstart=0

    M Mouse of Australia writes: Why can’t gay men solicit in public toilets? Freedom for all!

    Dazza says: Dumb cunce unite! Take Strayya BACK!!

    while Shazza says:
    My husband reads the papers and knows whats happening

    while Right Wing Bigot of a parallel universe opines:
    Juliar is an evil communist satanist witch and has a vagina. She’s not fit to lead this great god-fearing Christian country for white people.

    I think the petition has found its own juvenile level

  28. Centre – He’s critical of both parties in regard to Afghanistan and sticking to the ‘US line’ on China. He thinks we should be doing our best to convince the US that their confrontational attitude to China is not in any ones interest.

  29. OC:

    Despite all Alan Jones’ supposed influence, the petition has a paltry number of signatures.

    Perhaps his audience realise that the best efforts of the NSW media (not just one person) to engineer an early state election failed and so too will Jones’ measly petition.

  30. Cash – ‘Show me the monneeeey’?

    (head going from side-to-side and ‘Nah Nah Nah Nah Nah Nah’ being able to be substituted for actual words)

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