Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

NOTE: Due to server upgrades which will hopefully put an end to Crikey’s notorious technical gremlins, comments will be closed through the entirety of Sunday morning (i.e. about midnight to about noon).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,750 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. confessions

    I have always said that the coalition is being held together by stickytape. Some of the stickytape is bound to peel off sooner or later

  2. [I suppose politicians are fair game, to each other and observers. After all Toxic Tony with the Floppy Loppy rumoured to be sans wedding ring couldn’t lie straight in bed.]

    I have heard that rumour, if it’s true it will eventually come out… mind you if it was about Gillard, the MSM would have happily made up an entire mini-series on it by now… a really crap one.

  3. [PRIME waterfront land in one of Australia’s largest ever urban renewal projects, Melbourne’s Docklands, was sold so cheaply it was almost given away, documents reveal.

    Sale contracts obtained by The Saturday Age show one large chunk of inner-city harbourside real estate that now houses the Harbour One tower sold for as little as $119,700.

    Another, just west of Etihad Stadium, sold for $141,600 and will soon be developed into an upmarket apartment complex called The Quays.
    Advertisement: Story continues below

    One of the first land deals orchestrated by the Kennett government in 1999 in an effort to kickstart the Docklands precinct saw the 136,970 square metre New Quay precinct, roughly five city blocks in size, sold to developers MAB Corporation for $3 million.

    The deal priced the land that came with harbour access at $22 per square metre. A Brunswick workers’ cottage in 1999 cost $991 per square metre.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/docklands-kennett-was-almost-giving-the-land-away-20120302-1u8l6.html

    Mates rates

  4. BB

    Very well put again. The thinking of the hacks is so clear: when they get it wrong it’s not their fault, it’s Gillards fault for not doing what they say. The sheer arrogance of writing all those articles BEFORE the FM announcement. And now the hacks are the laughing stock of the nation.

    Not that they get this yet. Heather Ewart was criticising Gillard last night for not being perfect. Amazing.

  5. Bob Carr is PM Gillard’s firewall against any future #Ruddstoration & Any 3rd candidate. Brilliant move by PM, brilliant & stunning #auspol

  6. http://blogs.crikey.com.au/purepoison/2012/03/02/journalists-contacting-critics-employers/

    [Journalists contacting critics’ employers
    March 2, 2012 – 2:06 pm, by Jeremy Sear

    Pure Poison IconApropos of nothing in particular, I just wanted to have a quick discussion here on the subject of the power imbalance between journalists and ordinary readers.

    I’m going to describe a scenario which I believe is inappropriate and wrong, and you can let us know what you think.

    Say a journalist is unhappy with what a critic has written about him or her online. That journalist then tracks down the critic’s employer and contacts them.

    Factors to consider:]

    Goes through the factors. Then in an update, links to an article showing it’s actually happened recently. Anyone know any other examples?

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/03/02/schembri-now-punks-your-employer-if-you-tweet-criticism/

  7. I keep going back to that moment in QT when Gillard said, “don’t believe everything you read in the papers.” It was predictably treated as mere bluff by the press gallery – and the opposition, judging by how hard they went on the topic after that – but they really need to listen to her a bit more closely.

    It should have been a signal for the press gallery to go back and check their facts again. But they knew better of course…

  9. I’ve only ever been exposed to Bob Carr from a distance. I left NSW in 1986 (thanks to the Army I went to 1 Sig Regt in Qld and experienced the joys of a corrupt National government, still don’t trust the ##$#ts and CanDo is not helping in that regard) and apart from visiting relatives or on business have never lived in NSW since.

    Having said that I’d view Bob Carr as a politician capable of greater things that what he has already achieved. I very much view his oratorical capabilities as being along the lines of Lincoln, if ever we moved to a republic he’d make a better first president than any of our other “ex” state or federal leaders.

  11. The other thing about this is that it’s been a long time coming. The MSM have been getting away with misreportage for a while now. Australia Day was the latest clear example of that. In retrospect, it still looks a bit of a stunt, with a few unexpected outcomes that could be fashioned into criticism of the government. But Qantas was a bit like that too, as was the pokies thing, the “carbon tax” thing, etc. And all the Rudd saga. There’s been an unhealthy reliance on rumours and groupthink by the press gallery, and they have been getting a bit lazy and a bit keen to grab a ‘scoop’ – and focus on the ‘human interest’ (let’s say) aspect of politics.

    It was only a matter of time before the ALP found a way to take advantage of it. Again, Gillard gave fair warning with the “don’t write crap” advice late last year. And now she’s handed them an object lesson as to what happens if you do write crap. They picked up a false trail (from who knows where?), and she didn’t even really have to fan it, it took on its own life.

    I think this was probably a warning too. The leaks have been closed up, but they might get a whiff of something now and then which will prove to be false. Write the truth, confirm your stories, or you will continue to get your arses handed to you.

    I doubt it’ll lead to better reportage. But you can only stick your hand in the fire so many times before you learn not to burn yourself.

  12. I also like the way the opposition keep circling around their favourite topics, looking for something to hang onto.

    Boats – no that’s a dead end, now.
    Carbon tax -no traction there
    NBN – god no
    Budget surplus! – no, that leads back to our own costings…. ok…
    Boats – damn, we tried that…

    A scandal! Carr! That’s the one, we… oh…

    Ok… Carbon tax? No…

    That circle is getting smaller and smaller.

  13. [Sadly I agree with you. Which also sadly means that the government will cop a hiding on this. It will not be fair or reasonable I agree but it will happen nevertheless.]
    The government has a very good return argument on this. The opposition are going to take away the compensation that helps families cope with this increase while at the same time will expect people to believe the electricitiy companies will drop their prices when the tax is taken off. Who will believe that?

  21. smithe

    [Let’s face it William, if your surgeon came to you with a proposal to operate based on medical ‘facts’ of this caliber, you’d (quite rightly) tell him to bugger-off.]

    That’s a very good analogy (although surgeons are a lot more accountable than journos for their action).

    A critical thing in surgery is the decision to operate. You can be the best technical surgeon in the world but if you operate too early or too late, you aren’t much of a surgeon.

    To avoid operating too early, we review the patient frequently, watch their observations and get more test results.

    Journos don’t as they barely care if they get it wrong and getting in first is much more important to them.

  23. [The other thing about this is that it’s been a long time coming. The MSM have been getting away with misreportage for a while now.]

    Jeez! What a trial! I took one for the team and read BOTH Shanahan’s and Kelly’s articles, line by line.

    From reading these pieces today, and seeing how much detail their articles contain, or purport to contain, I am forced to one of the following conclusions:

    1. They have a few facts and are filling in the gaps with bullshit.

    2. There is a super-grass in Labor that is feeding them stuff by the minute.

    3. They are tapping phones, or phone message banks.

    They are claiming to have blow-by-blow, detailed knowledge of phone calls, discussions, even emotions involved in the past week’s proceedings.

    Put aside for one moment the assertion on Tuesday morning by Shanahan that Gillard had “failed” – no “ifs” or “buts” – and that now he says she has succeeded, and Kelly’s use of the words {comic moment|defeat|high farce|roller-coaster week|embarrassment|humiliating consequences|collapse|Monty Python|Gillard brazenness|boasted|nervousness|betrayed|theatre-of-the-absurd|hammed it up|stood up by Gillard|nonsense|actor’s genius|political razor blades|second hit for the team|rescued|narrow escape|chaos|fragility of Gillard’s judgement|fiasco|ludricrous|such a mess|muddying the waters|failed|thin quality|ruthless pragmatism|Gillard is doomed|must revitalise|got out of jail, twice} to describe his and his newspaper’s failure to predict what they now claim was perfectly predictable, if not unavoidably obvious. Kelly even quotes the SMH quoting The Australian as evidence… of something… a bootstrap writ large, maybe (newspapers quoting each other are how bootstraps get started)? There’s also a reference to journalists interviewing other journalists, in this case Fran Kelly interviewing Michelle Grattan… as if THAT meant anything.

    These failings are bad enough, but only reflect The Australian’s bias against anything Labor.

    It’s the amount of factually-presented detail these articles presents that worries me. In my opinion, it means there is either a monumentally disloyal leaker at the heart of the Labor party; that they made most of it up; or that they have been hacking phones.

    Sadly, the latter accusation is an awful one to make, and I hope it’s not true, but News has shat in it own nest on this one, and has form on corruption and payola in the UK and the USA.

    How could anyone seriously argue that it couldn’t happen here, the land that spawned Rupert Murdoch and his malignant organization?

  24. [Journos don’t as they barely care if they get it wrong and getting in first is much more important to them.]

    Agreed.

    Journalists don’t even have to bury their mistakes. Their colleagues don’t even mention that there’s a body to be dealt with. As a collective they step over the carcass pretending it isn’t there.

  25. [The Finnigans
    Posted Saturday, March 3, 2012 at 10:44 am | Permalink

    Bob Carr is PM Gillard’s firewall against any future #Ruddstoration & Any 3rd candidate. Brilliant move by PM, brilliant & stunning #auspol]

    It seems so dam obvious to me, yet none in the press have mentioned it. I suppose they don’t want to admit rudd-storation round 17 is a non starter.

  28. The thought of a leak early in the week and McClelland’s demotion keep coming together ….

    Barking up the wrong tree ..?

  30. Fredn

    I think Ruddstoration is probably so last year. Smitheviction is possibly the emerging story.

    All he needs to do is to use the word vegemite and it is ON

  31. @DTR/1775,

    Problem himself he is wrong.

    It’s not that unions are bad or wrong, it’s just they are needed, I do not see any complaints about the IPA or any criticism of the Coalition Party (i.e. Where they get their money from).

  32. The divine Ms M:

    http://www.bordermail.com.au/news/local/news/general/solar-plant-pie-in-sky-says-sophie/2475691.aspx

    [A BORDER environmental group yesterday floated a plan to build a huge solar thermal power plant on the Border.
    But the member for Indi, Sophie Mirabella, immediately played down the idea and told the organisation not to get its hopes up.]

    [But Mrs Mirabella said while the plant was a great aspiration, the group “should not get too excited” it could get money from a fund established after Labor Party and Greens carbon-tax negotiations.

    The government this week ended its $1000 rebate for solar hot water systems.

    Mrs Mirabella said that showed the government was not serious about renewable energy.

    “People should not get too excited about this $10 billion,” she said.

    “If you judge the government on what its done recently, we won’t see much of it put to good use.]

    Good to see her promising to take the issue up with the government and fight for her local community…

    oh, hang on…

    [Mrs Mirabella said the Coalition supported investment in renewable energy, and would commit funding through its direct-action plan.]

  33. Pegasus @ 1765

    Bob Carr was interviewed this morning by Geraldine Doogue on RN Saturday Extra. It is well worth listening to if you want to obtain some insight about future directions in FA policy.

    During the interview he agreed wtte that the lead up to his appointment was messy but in the end Gillard cut through.

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/bob-carr-appointment/3865346

    I heard that interview and agree.

    I think I was perhaps a little harsh in some opinions I expressed on Bob Carr recently and from hearing that interview it is clear he will bring to the job a vigour that belies his age and he is already pursuing international contacts he has previously had and seeking out new ones.

    The process was certainly messy and facing up to that and dealing with it is a better approach than denial and saying it was all a media conspiracy or incompetence.

    Peter Hartcher (remember him, the Ruddista ogre so reviled here?) had this to say:

    The war Carr has enlisted in is nothing so grand.
    He has signed up to support a deeply unpopular Prime Minister who is trying to defeat a rampant populist, Tony Abbott, while holding Kevin Rudd at bay. Carr will be a useful ally in both causes.
    He is an experienced campaigner and articulate advocate. He can do something neither Gillard nor Rudd managed – he can speak simply, engagingly, to the point.
    In just a few minutes at a news conference yesterday, he outshone the drab performance of his leader Gillard and the long-winded appearances of his predecessor Rudd.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/former-premier-will-be-useful-ally-in-two-fronts-20120302-1u8bk.html#ixzz1o0lfVkeW

    And expect Bruce Hawker to be playing an important role too. After all, he was Bob Carr’s Chief of Staff when Kevin Rudd was Chief of Staff to Wayne Goss.

    Carr will use all of these connections to the benefit of Prime Minister Gillard and the Government.

  34. Do you really think that exhuming Carrcass is really going to help Dullard’s election prospects? Come on, Carrcass presided over the worst state government in living memory, he will be 66 next election and really is from an outdated era.

  35. [Rather than mouth off at Hartcher can people explain where he is wrong]

    I for one am very suspicious of the direct quotes he attributes to Paul Howes. Was he there? If not why the quotation marks? I only read the first four paragraphs then gave up. It reads like the usual clap trap.

  38. [Bob Brown ‏ @SenatorBobBrown
    If I’m “the most powerful politician in Australia” how come I can’t get my letters to the editor printed in The Australian?]

    😆

  39. Tom

    Being a bit narrow minded I think. The article was a fairly detailed and analytical look at the voting and the reasons why.

    The Howes quote was pretty believable even if self promotional. I

    Moreover it is NOT the guts of the article. It simply analyses the fact that Gillard is supported by unions (left, right and centre) and why that might be.

    It suggests Rudd got the unions off side – badly which largely explains his demise.

  41. I believe that the Coalition are indeed in a strong position to win the next election by a landslide and remain in government for a VERY long time. After all, the politics of FEAR in any environment are stronger than the power of HOPE. That’s why I’m very happy at the relentless negative campaigning by Abbott and also we are getting some help by the mainstream media.

    I for one always thought that it was more important to be feared than loved.

  42. confessions @ 1788

    confessions
    Posted Saturday, March 3, 2012 at 12:16 pm | Permalink
    If “Ruddstoration is so last year”, why do people keep banging on about it?

    So says the main offender who seems still obsessed by it.

  44. [In just a few minutes at a news conference yesterday, he outshone the drab performance of his leader Gillard and the long-winded appearances of his predecessor Rudd.]

    That’s where Hartcher lost me.

    Pin-Stripe Pete is too much of a bitch for my liking. Until he writes something that is without routine, gratuitous nasty references to Gillard, I wouldn’t give him the time of day.

    Hartcher has to realise that HE doesn’t run the country, the government does. A sullen, caustic, biased piece of work, is Hartcher. In the bin with Ol’ Coke Bottles as far as I’m concerned.

  46. Nostrils @ 1789

    I for one always thought that it was more important to be feared than loved.

    You win, I fear you. I fear you are an idiot. Happy now?

  48. The saga of Mamdouh Habib, an Australian citizen who was subjected to torture and “extraordinary rendition,” is one that has faded from sight.

    In late 2010 during a protracted legal case Habib had brought against the Federal Government, a confidential settlement was reached in which Habib received a financial payment and agreed to forgo all future claims against the Commonwealth.

    On the 19 December 2011, a report into the involvement of Australian government officials in the illegal arrest, detention, and torture overseas of Habib. was handed to the PM by the Inspector General of Intelligence and Security. An abridged version of the report suitable for public release was also provided.

    Despite repeated requests neither report has seen the light of day. Despite a recommendation by the IGIS Habib has not received a copy of the public document.

    Both Coalition and Labor governments have been complicit in their secrecy and obfuscation about the Australian Government’s involvement in what happened to Habib.

    In contrast, the Greens Party have tried to get to the truth of the matter.
    [Greens Senator Bob Brown says he has no faith in the report until he reads it — and he wants to see both versions, the public and the original.

    “I am aware there are matters relating to intelligence organisations that shouldn’t be made public, for example names and addresses of intelligence officers. And if that is what has been blacked out, good, let them say so. But when it comes to the activities of the agencies, if that is what is censored, then you can’t rest easy about that. If there are blacked out pieces in, well let me or other parliamentarians see it on a condition of confidentiality.”

    According to Senator Brown, the stakes are too high to allow there to be any remaining secrecy over this affair.

    “There is a very clear public interest test here. If there is any truth here, to an Australian citizen being tortured in another country, either with the knowledge and failure to act, or worse still with an active assistance or cooperation of any Australian official, that needs to be brought to light to make sure it never happens again. If there is nothing untoward, then there should be no problem with have this process open to the light of day.”]
    http://newmatilda.com/2012/03/02/truth-about-mamdouh-habib

    It could be argued that parallels with the Assange case can be made.

  49. Bemused,

    Hartcher calling things like a true New South Wales man. Provincialism at it’s best.

    As for the story on Union influence in the ALP- Who knew?

    As for Hawker: For someone who allegedly has so much experience/understanding of the ALP from within Government and as an advisor, he didn’t show much nous during the ill fated Leadership putsch. I doubt whether Gillard or the movers and shakers in the upper echelons are ever going to trust his judgement or faithfullness to the cause again. He may pick up a few doggy scraps from some of the States. He has built his business around access and influence. Talk about blowing up your business model.

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