Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

NOTE: Due to server upgrades which will hopefully put an end to Crikey’s notorious technical gremlins, comments will be closed through the entirety of Sunday morning (i.e. about midnight to about noon).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,750 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  4. Be afraid, very afraid Huawei from China will join Samsung & HTC & ASUS as the next big thing in Smartphones & Tablets

  5. The private second class network is networking like nobody’s business.

    At the pub.

    The six point fives won’t know what hit them.

  6. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, March 1, 2012 at 9:40 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib,

    The fact that there were leaks is not Gillard’s fault.

    See how things pan out tomorrow.]

    I am not saying Gillard leaked….Haha! 😉

    Just someone unhappy with her. The point is the media are reporting unhappiness in the ALP and low and behold a little insider information appears.

    I suspect you (and others here) actually do get this, but I commend your pretences!

  9. Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt?

  10. In his new Soccer League. Clive PALMER will be the Chairman, funder as well as playing the goal keeper. Nothing can get pass him

  13. Mod Lib,

    Oh, I understand the point.

    However, the Carr furore is a bucket of bullshit that will be forgotten. In fact I’ve already forgotten.

    If you want to talk meaningless rubbish, how about the rumour that Abbott is no longer wearing his wedding ring?

    The Morgan poll we are threading on shows again, that the Libs have got no bounce from the furore of last week. What does this mean?

  14. [ce cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt?]

    Showy, repetitions wont improve your IQ

  15. Day after day, it is the same few fuarqwits that come here spoiling for a fight, they come and the first thing they do is spout some derogatory statement about the PM. Then sit back and see how and who will take the bait and then continue their ‘intelligent’ analysis of some simple statement as to whether it proves that the PM is a congenital liar, loose with her words or deliberately obtuse all in the hope of reeling is a few people and deflecting any real analysis of the politics of the day or week.
    Is it any wonder that this site is down to about 20 people posting and fewer sitting back reading (well scrolling past most of the crap that goes on here) where there used to be many more.

  17. [Showy, repetitions wont improve your IQ]
    I thought IQ doesn’t change from adolescents onwards?

    Well, unless someone suffers dementia, then it declines rapidly.

  19. Does anyone know why Barry Cohen keeps attending the HoR as an observer?

    I can think of better ways to spend my twilight years.

  20. [Is it any wonder that this site is down to about 20 people posting]

    HaveAchat – Bilbo cant handle more than 20, else the steam driven server will crash every 10mins.

  21. SPECIAL BULLETIN FOR SOUTH AUSTRALIAN POLL BLUDGERS

    On Saturday 17 March it is intended to have a luncheon gathering for the SA Chapter at the Rising Sun, the venue of the original Chapter meeting.
    For those whose email address I don’t have please authorise William to forward theirs to to me for consolidation into the distribution list.

  23. Is this the ultimate ‘boy’s look’?

    My son just tweeted me from Sydney (600k plus away) that he couldn’t find his good trousers. So I told him where to look for them!!

    Found.

  24. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, March 1, 2012 at 9:58 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib,

    Oh, I understand the point.]

    Yes, I knew you would. Do me a favour and tell the other posters, would you?

    [The Morgan poll we are threading on shows again, that the Libs have got no bounce from the furore of last week. What does this mean?]

    Yes, you are absolutely right. I have been very surprised by the polls around the destabilisation. The Morgan is a F2F and taken last weekend which is at the time we have debated here about the possibility of an impending Rudd takeover bounce.

    If over the next few weeks we have polls in the 48-52 range I will agree with you: GAME ON!

    If, as I suspect, over the next few weeks we have polls drifting out again to 44-56 (or worse for the ALP) then…..well, I guess: GAME ON TOO!!!!

  26. The Finnigans
    [In his new Soccer League. Clive PALMER will be the Chairman, funder as well as playing the goal keeper. Nothing can get pass him]
    Not to mention he really will be in “A League of his own” !!

  28. [zoom

    My son just tweeted me from Sydney (600k plus away) that he couldn’t find his good trousers. So I told him where to look for them!! ]
    Youse Malcolm Fraser’s dad ? 😆

  29. [My son just tweeted me from Sydney (600k plus away) that he couldn’t find his good trousers. So I told him where to look for them!!]

    Zoom, if i were you. i asked first how did he lost it. Memphis?

  31. [Does anyone know why Barry Cohen keeps attending the HoR as an observer?]
    He is delusional and thus still thinks he is an MP?

  32. [SPECIAL BULLETIN FOR SOUTH AUSTRALIAN POLL BLUDGERS]

    BK, can you imagine if we have the Sydney Chapter and crashed by Evan2GB, yuk!!!

  35. Thomas Jefferson “The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers.” Discuss, in the context of coverage of current Australian political events by the print media.

  41. [On Saturday 17 March it is intended to have a luncheon gathering for the SA Chapter at the Rising Sun, the venue of the original Chapter meeting.]

    St Pat’s Day! Hope youse all have fun.

  42. Mod Lib,

    The bad news for you and the Libs is that was just down the local and the punters are all of a sudden interested in the compensation for the Carbon tax.

    It’s amazing how quickly people will change their view of the Government, climate change and being proactive on social issues when you explain they are financial winners from all their altruism.

    The No charade has run its course.

  43. [Thomas Jefferson “The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers.”]

    Esp Australian newspapers, as we continue to see evidence of here every day.

  46. The 2pp would be higher if Carr was in the Senate.
    And yet, they blew it.
    And yes, regarding the first line, that still wouldn’t be saying much.

    Only 18-20 months until an Abbott Government – for the next 15 years! I can’t wait!

  49. [Is this the ultimate ‘boy’s look’?]

    Zoomster – that is classic. File it under ‘to be brought out when said son thinks I’m a dill’

  50. Thomas Jefferson “The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers.”

    Thomas Jefferson wrote many scathing things about the press, a lot of it much more visceral than that.

    To your request of my opinion of the manner in which a newspaper should be conducted so as to be most useful, I should answer, “by restraining it to true facts and sound principles only.” Yet I fear such a paper would find few subscribers. It is a melancholy truth that a suppression of the press could not more completely deprive the nation of its benefits than is done by its abandoned prostitution to falsehood. Nothing can now be believed which is seen in a newspaper. Truth itself becomes suspicious by being put into that polluted vehicle. The real extent of this state of misinformation is known only to those who are in situations to confront facts within their knowledge with the lies of the day… I will add that the man who never looks into a newspaper is better informed than he who reads them, inasmuch as he who knows nothing is nearer to truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors. He who reads nothing will still learn the great facts, and the details are all false.

    I deplore, with you, the putrid state into which our newspapers have passed, and the malignity, the vulgarity, and mendacious spirit of those who write for them; and I enclose you a recent sample, the production of a New England judge, as a proof of the abyss of degradation into which we are fallen. These ordures are rapidly depraving the public taste, and lessening its relish for sound food. As vehicles of information, and a curb on our functionaries, they have rendered themselves useless, by forfeiting all title to belief. That this has, in a great degree, been produced by the violence and malignity of party spirit, I agree with you; and I have read with great pleasure the paper you enclosed me on that subject, which now return.

    He was a bitter bitter man.

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