Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,750 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  2. Well 50-50 less 3% ALP bias, maybe 47-53 which is not so bad.

    BUT, it’s Morgan. Worse it’s F2F. Nothing to see here, move along move along.

  5. [ BUT, it’s Morgan. Worse it’s F2F. Nothing to see here, move along move along. ]

    Hey Jackol, no offence – but if the rightards can make something out of nothing WRT the “Carr Smash”, aren’t we at least entitled to crow about actual good polls????

  6. And me as well Oscar.

    Seems there’s been an ever so slight narrowing over the past few months. Will it continue, that is the question.

  9. While I’m not going to happy dance, the trend is slowly continuing.

    If the govt can just get past all this confected nonsense frm the opps & media, real headway will be made.

    The best way to shut these r-w fools in media & opp benches up is with good polling numbers (as that is mostly what they use to reinforce a negative impression of govt & PM)

    In some ways, I think this might be a bit delusional on the opps part – they are being policy lazy bc they think they will romp it in without any effort.

    They underestimate both the ALP and the electorate, methinks.

  11. [Is anyone else enjoying Kelly O’Dwyer on The Nation? No?]

    Had to turn it off and watch “Wild India” instead

  12. you wouldnt read about (thanks Midnight Oil)

    meanwhile in breaking news PM Gillard fails to deny hacking phones of murdered schoolgirls in sufficient detail to appease Murdoch press and their acolytes … oh, hang on …

    As a moderate lefty it is really embarrassing to think that all the Trots and communications students and the like that I was at uni with were actually right about the capitalist press. Mining billionaires owning big slices of media and donating $3mill a year to the tories to avoid paying tax? Please, give it up. What? its all true? oh no …

  13. if the rightards can make something out of nothing WRT the “Carr Smash”, aren’t we at least entitled to crow about actual good polls????

    It’s just my pessimistic nature. I want to base my hope on things that are reliable and that I can believe in.

    “Morgan” “reliable” “believe” are words that just don’t go in the same sentence.

  14. Surely Mr Abbott, in his quest for an improved shadow ministry, should promote talent such as K’OD so obviously believes she has?

    Let us hope that it does not become a case of forever the bridesmaid.

    Surely it would be inappropriate to promote that Johnny-come-lately, Mr Sinodinod ahead of Ms Kelly?

    What is Mr Abbott thinking?

  16. [ “Morgan” “reliable” “believe” are words that just don’t go in the same sentence. ]

    Yes, I see what your saying. But what do you think a rightard who was closing in the polls after being behind would take from this a result like this? – well, I’ll tell you …

    “50 – 50!!!! Eat that! Woohoo!!!!“

  17. Anyone else find it amusing how there’s the constant stories about how JG has no ‘authority’ when the journos keep forgetting she’s running a minority government?

  19. Oscar

    [50-50 at this point in the election cycle will do me!]
    I like to image “the narrowning” as the shrinkage of Tones budgie smugglers.

  20. [ Anyone else find it amusing how there’s the constant stories about how JG has no ‘authority’ when the journos keep forgetting she’s running a minority government? ]

    So those 250+ bills though the parliament – of which testicle-less Tony has been unable to stop or amend a single one – should all be stamped ‘RESCINDED: NO AUTHORITY’?

  22. Finns #7 that is indeed great. A bit confusing at first, since Albo didnt have that much hair even in the 80s.

    A missed opportunity though to do something with Chewie … Dick Adams? Kim Carr?

    KR as C3PO for that matter? (3 million forms of communication and all that)

  25. [ Or maybe a kick in the kods. ]

    Is a “kick in the knads” the phrase you’re after, BW?

    You really need to turn off auto-correct 🙂

  26. [The only people who know whether an ALP Prime Minister spoke to an ALP Premier about an ALP Cabinet position is the ALP.]

    Correct

    [If the Media got wind of it, then it must have come from the ALP.]

    Incorrect

    There are ways cf NOTW et al to gather news, wouldnt surprise me if this was a recent example

  27. Well we have been through round 17 of the Ruddrestoration, wich ended in a Rudd dubbing. The press are now going on and one over Carr, and the exact words the PM may or may not have used. One thing is for sure the press don’t make up their crap cause it might be interesting.

    And the polls in the vacuum continue to drift to labor.

    What sort of press unhinging are we to see when it’s 48 -52 to Labor.

  28. lizzie

    [After the trauma of the past week, I’ll take it 😆 ]
    A result like that in supposedly “the worst of times” for Labor writes in the sky in 100 meter letters “Tony Abbott 2013 ? You Lose”

  29. I always seem to a take a while to catch up. From the previous thread
    [Gorgeous Dunny
    Posted Thursday, March 1, 2012 at 8:23 pm | Permalink

    3955 smithe

    Ellis is an un-reconstructed Ruddista who has had at least one excruciatingly maudlin and boring paean to Rudd published on The Drum website in the last 12 months. Fair dinkum, it read like a print version of Don Mclean’s The Day the Music Died, dedicated to The Great Man hisself. ]

    I was drawn to his blog by the mention here. He has turned off Rudd in a big way: likened him to that Doc Martin character on TV, and suggested that he had aspergers. But it hasn’t converted him to Gillard. Most of his other writings don’t make much sense – so the Ruddistas needn’t take much offense from it.

    He is unreconstructed in regarding Beazley as a hero and the saviour of the Labor party. It is there that he loses me. As likeable as he may have been, I have come to the conclusion that Beazley’s leadership was a major liability for the Labor party throughout the Howard years. As is clear in the Latham Diaries, not only did he run away from the economic legacy of Hawke and Keating, he hardly developed any major policies, relying instead on an evening news style point-scoring and fighting yesterday’s battles (GST).

    Ironically, the very time he could have gone negative with success was in the 1998 campaign. But he chose the GST (with no alternative plan) and ignored Reith’s attack on the waterside workers with scab labor and bottom-of-the-harbor companies employing people. A simple campaign on ‘How safe is your job?’ with shots of those masked thugs and dogs, plus Howard and Reith shaking hands and backslapping in parliament would have cut through. He didn’t lose by much anyway.

    If Bob really feels that way, I don’t think there’s much hope. Such a wordsmith at his best, too, but always erratic.

  30. Shell bell

    No worries. Most of it is guesswork. BTW, I did have cause to visit the Australian High Commission in Singapore today. The client service was excellent. The security was thorough but polite. There was not the slightest hint of xenophobic discrimination.

    Well done, Australia.

  31. fredn

    the fact that social media has it all over the MSM, must be galling to the journos

    as i said last night

    the left owns social media

    Now we iz fighting on our ground

    😉

  32. [ What sort of press unhinging are we to see when it’s 48 -52 to Labor. ]

    Yes, it’s interesting to speculate just how unhinged the OO might get, isn’t it? …

    “Expose: Gillard descended from Aliens! Proof inside!”

    “Revealed: Rudd discovered in S&M dungeon, whipping hooker in Gillard mask!”

    “Exclusive: Low carbon levels linked to typhoid, tuberculosis and AIDS!”

  33. Gusface: that would be the ultimate dilemma for News Limited, wouldn’t it?

    Option 1: Kill off the PM by proving – now and forever – that she’s a liar by producing the recorded conversation of her phone call to Bob Carr

    Option 2: Try to pretend you know stuff – but have no proof – because what is happening in the UK cannot be allowed to taint your business interests elsewhere.

    Poor Rupe 😀

  37. gusface
    [fredn

    the fact that social media has it all over the MSM, must be galling to the journos

    as i said last night

    the left owns social media]
    Witness Qantas,Coke and TAbbott getting pwned when they tried to use social media to look hip and cool. 😆

  38. [Incorrect

    There are ways cf NOTW et al to gather news, wouldnt surprise me if this was a recent example]

    Granted. That is possible too…

    I doubt it though, how stupid would they be hacking phones when the boss is resigning in the aftermath of hacking?

  39. Option 1: Kill off the PM by proving – now and forever – that she’s a liar by producing the recorded conversation of her phone call to Bob Carr

    The PM has not denied talking directly to Bob Carr – that is not what this is all about.

  41. gusface
    [poroti

    toolman has tried to justify his helium induced tweeting to
    quote

    ‘bob carr made him do it’

    Nb that may be a tad incorrect quote]
    Gussie it is the vibe that counts, reality brings up the rear 🙂

  42. mod

    i didnt say hacking phones

    👿

    It is a well known fact that Oz journos have incredibly large ears and acute hearing

    why if, grattan or some other esteemed journo was simply sitting on black mt in canberra, they would pretty well hear every convo on the east coast

    So yes it is plausible that on of the fearless journos was being an audio perv

  45. Of course you’re right, Jacko! It is Morgan f2f, the polling equivalent for Labor as talkback radio opinion is for Liberals.

    But let us draw a little illusory comfort. A 37.5 primary is getting closer to the light on the hill. Will we see the same as pre-christmas where I think it was Morgan the first to show a clawing back?

    Well, for all the media noise of the past four weeks, which have you believe Gillard-ALP disaster, there has been no backwards movement in support for Labor. If anything there has been a very weak movement forwards for Labor. Not much, mind, and might be explained by other factors, but it’s a liferaft to cling to.

    Time is very much on Labor’s side. Continued gradual movement up should take Labor close to 40 by July, and from then on they’ll take some stopping.

  47. Mod Lib

    I’m happy to bucket Gillard if I think she’s stuffed up but I can’t see that she has done anything wrong here.

    I think she spoke to Carr and semi-offered him the Senate spot. He probably mentioned his “dream job” of FA, and she would have been non-committal.

    She probably sounded a few people out and one of them flipped out or told someone who flipped out, and they tried to kill it by leaking.

  48. I don’t think NOTW phonehacking allowed them to listen in on convos. I think they could only access messages.

    Yeah, they were just getting voicemail messages.

    Although, if they were in the habit of paying police and other officials for services rendered, who knows what other information they could have gotten hold of – Lawful Interception for hire anyone?

  49. [ I don’t think NOTW phonehacking allowed them to listen in on convos. I think they could only access messages. ]

    JULIA: Oh, Hi Bob. It’s Julia. Call me as soon as you get this.

    BOB: Julia! Returning your call, babe. I hear you’ve got a vacancy to fill? Let’s do lunch!

    JULIA: Bob! Don’t you ever pick up? Yes, the FA dept … err … senate …. has a vacancy. Call me!

    BOB: Hey Julia. Just got a call from Crean! He sounded really pissed! Said I should not accept the job or he’d send the boys around. Honestly Julia, I think I’m going to have to give this one a miss! But let’s catch up soon, ok?

    JULIA: Yeah, me again, Bob. Sorry about all this. Let’s just forget the whole thing, ok? Oh, and if anybody asks if I called, let’s both just say we never spoke, ok?

  50. Jackol wrote: “The PM has not denied talking directly to Bob Carr – that is not what this is all about.”

    Read the newspapers, and you will think otherwise. The latest headline from The Australian is: “Yes, I did talk to Bob Carr, Julia Gillard admits”. They’re painting her as a pathological liar who is under the control of the factional bosses. Apparently, she lied about the conversation with Carr when the factional heavies leaned on her to appoint one of their chosen ones to the position instead.

    Of course, this is abject nonsense, but if that is what the public are told by the media repeatedly, then the truth becomes irrelevant. The vast majority of Murdoch press articles regarding Gillard insinuate that either she is a compulsive liar or that she can’t have breakfast of a morning without checking with Arbib which jam to spread on her toast.

    The disconnect between the media and reality is growing every day. They control the narrative, and with very little being done from Labor’s end to sell their own coherent vision, that is the way it will stay.

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