Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,059 comments on “Gillard 71, Rudd 31”

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  2. So we have some here saying “yes” the FM position was discussed and others ridiculing me saying where is the evidence!!!

    LOL, just the usual night at PB I guess.

    Well, I wasn’t there so there is no way of me knowing, I can just go on reports that say Carr said “yes” when asked the specific question about whether he was:

    [Ms Gillard’s claims were at odds with those of Mr Carr, who said yesterday he had been offered the foreign ministry. “Yes,” he said, when asked directly if there had been an offer.]

    The whole point is whether Gillard is under the thumb of the faceless men who put her in her current position. Even if it wasn’t Gillard, if it was one of the faceless men, its still a significant story.

    The other issue is how did this story come out into the open ?

    Any takers?

  3. Modlib,
    I know that you Liberals are sucking on ashes at the moment and that makes your throats really dry but the Carr beat-up is not the lozenge you crave.

  4. [Mod Lib

    Totes buyers remorse with this Labor Govt (2007-2013)!]

    Completely uncalled for Gary!!!!

    They are already so angry, don’t wind them up any more please!!!! 🙂

  5. Bit rich for the few tory hacks who come here and pontificate about Gillard lying.

    John Howard lied many, many times and was called by his own party member a “Lying Rodent”. The Honest John title was an irony which many conservatives were just a little to obtuse to understand.

    Meanwhile, Abbott is a self-confessed, in public, admitted liar.

    Remember his interview with Kerry? Though, of course, as Health Minister he already had a track record for lying.

    Lying for politicians is in their DNA. It goes with the territory.

    But when the sad sacks from the conservatives come here an try to wag their “naughty, naughty” finger at Gillard, I have the rank odour of hypocrisy coming from them.

    Of course, these sore losers from the right, will say anything, do anything and believe anything to console their aching, aching disappointment that Abbott is likely to remain on the opposition benches for some time to come and possibly for ever.

    I wish this lot had something constructive to add, but then they fit the stereotype.

    Watching Oakie and Windsor take Abbott to pieces yesterday was great.

    The best part was where they contrasted the fact that the PM had kept her word to them, but Abbott as we know, even with his ‘ass’ on the line, after 17 days, failed completed to win over any of the key personnel. Cos, they didn’t trust him.

    Not only is Abbott and abject liar but and abject failure in his ability to lead anyone other than a pack of nay sayers.

  6. [The sole function of the current “scandal” will be to add to the “list” of Gillard “Gaffes”]

    And consequently the only people still pushing the ‘OMG Gillard lied about Carr!!!!’ non-story are:

    – Liberals

    – The media (and those sucked in by the media)

    -anti-Gillard Rudd Cultists

    Have a look at the commenters who are still flogging this crap for all it’s worth. They tick one, if not more of the above boxes.

  7. Ms Gillard’s claims were at odds

    Sorry, which claims – a quote please – I’m not going to trust the press in this matter saying “Ms Gillard’s claims” without knowing what those claims actually were.

    “Completely untrue” refers to mutinies and rebellions.

  9. Portoi

    I think we can all agree Tories (Abbott) and Laborites (Gillard) are liars.

    Flame war over

    BTW

    I am reading Ann Henderson’s biography of our least know PM’s Joseph Lyons called The People’s Prime Minister. It’s a great read!

  10. [“Completely untrue” refers to mutinies and rebellions.]

    Which brings us back to my question:


    [The other issue is how did this story come out into the open ?

    Any takers?]

  11. Which brings us back to my question:

    Ah, so you’ve given up claiming that Julia Gillard denied talking to Bob Carr. Excellent.

  12. [While you are here, on the assumption that Mr Rudd is not reappointed as FM, do you expect changes to foreign policy or just approach?]

    My own view: Under Rudd’s watch as FM the opposition were able to get traction with the line about needing to have a Jakarta focus rather than a UN focus. The assumption being that Rudd was too preoccupied with sucking up to northern hemisphere nations to pay any attention to our own region.

    This needs to change.

  13. Gary Sparrow
    [Portoi

    I think we can all agree Tories (Abbott) and Laborites (Gillard) are liars.

    Flame war over]
    I bloody well hope the “flame war” is over. The phrase “Much ado about nothing” comes to mind.

  14. [The other issue is how did this story come out into the open ?]

    We dealt with this earlier. There is a claque of Rudd supporters who haven’t yet got the memo that the Rudd ship has sailed.

  15. Defending modlib doesn’t appeal to me greatly but calling him an idiot based on the rather tenuous belief that the only way the PM could possibly make an offer is directly herself takes the irrational cult of Julia to new depths. It also assumes an independence from the factions which she can repeat ad nausea and sane people will never believe.

    While I’m here the hopeful view that this Carr crash rubbish (which I fully agree should not be important) is irrelevant seems to neglect that the publics starting perception of Julia is being reinforced. The view she is a liar controlled by the factions running the worst ever Australian govt is very strong notwithstsnding it is largely wrong.

  16. [Which brings us back to my question:

    The other issue is how did this story come out into the open ?]

    Who cares?

    Conduct your own pogroms, comrade>

  17. [ Well, I wasn’t there so there is no way of me knowing ]

    Ok – we finally agree on something. So how about you STFU about something you have just admitted you know nothing about?

  18. [the publics starting perception of Julia…]

    That’d be Shanahan’s startling percrption of Julia (which he never tires of repeating tom any who will listen), I think you’ll find.

  20. [While I’m here the hopeful view that this Carr crash rubbish (which I fully agree should not be important) is irrelevant seems to neglect that the publics starting perception of Julia is being reinforced.]
    Only if they are taking any notice, which I don’t believe they are. It isn’t making a big splash on the nightly news services and nor will it matter in a few days time. A politician that lies or stretches the truth, well I never.

  21. [Ok – we finally agree on something. So how about you STFU about something you have just admitted you know nothing about?]

    Oscar:

    Let me spell it out for you.

    The only people who know whether an ALP Prime Minister spoke to an ALP Premier about an ALP Cabinet position is the ALP.

    If the Media got wind of it, then it must have come from the ALP.

    So much for the resounding win Gillard had on Monday, and the end of the leaks eh?

  22. [While I’m here the hopeful view that this Carr crash rubbish (which I fully agree should not be important) is irrelevant seems to neglect that the publics starting perception of Julia is being reinforced.]

    And I refer you to my comment above about those pushing this stupid meme. It is being pushed in order to undermine the PM’s authority and assertiveness she gained from Monday’s ballot. You only have to look at those feeding it to see where it’s coming from.

    Compare and contrast to Helen Coonan’s resignation. Nobody batted an eyelid when Howard era staffer Sinodinos replaced her, yet they should’ve as it fed directly into the very real perception that Abbott’s leadership is only about Howard Restoration and nothing more.

  23. A politician that lies or stretches the truth, well I never.

    The annoying thing is that, in this case, I don’t think Julia Gillard has stretched the truth at all, let alone lied.

    My feeling about this is that various interests are strategically putting out all these little “Julia Gillard lied” events (whether she did or not), assuming that by putting out hundreds of them they can’t all be swatted down, and collectively add to an overall impression that is impossible to refute.

    That’s why I don’t think any of these should be allowed to go through to the keeper.

    Julia Gillard did not lie about her interactions with Bob Carr. She didn’t even dissemble.

  24. [So much for the resounding win Gillard had on Monday]

    And there we have it, just as I claimed @ 4023.

    It’s disappointing to be proved right in so short a space of time. After the Rudd stuff, I’m used to having to wait months.

  28. [And there we have it, just as I claimed @ 4023.

    It’s disappointing to be proved right in so short a space of time. After the Rudd stuff, I’m used to having to wait months.]

    Gosh what a shock, the story is about Gillard, Rudd, the vote, the faction leaders, the faceless men, leaks….yes, of course. I would have thought that was pretty obvious Confessions, but you take it as a cunning win on your part if you wish!!!

  30. [You only have to look at those feeding it to see where it’s coming from.]

    LOL! That would be the tools is the MSM who have been pretty much wRONg about everything since Gillard became PM??

    The way this is going it will become standard Shamahan practice to include a statement that “The sky is up and the ground is down” at some point in every article so that no-one can ever state that any article of his is “completely” wrong. Since when has relevance ever mattered? Its all about agenda.

  31. Amazing, no #leadershits or PM Gillard bashing tonight on #ABC730. Now @CUhlmann that wasnt too painful, was it? #auspol

  32. [A politician that lies or stretches the truth, well I never.]
    I actually used this to indicate what the effect the perception a politician lied would have on the general public.

  33. [ If the Media got wind of it, then it must have come from the ALP. ]

    Got wind of what exactly? The story you and the OO seem to be trying to spin here (as far as I understand either their bizarre logic or your bizarre logic) is that Julia lied when she says she didn’t offer Bob Carr the FM positition. But sadly for you, both sides – being the only ones who would actually know – have categorically denied it.

    So WTF are you claiming the story is about? Some nebulous “mutiny” which you cannot seem to substantiate? Some cracked notion that Julia was “overruled” that (again) you cannot seem to substantiate?

    I’m sorry, Mod Lib, but I am really at a loss to understand just what you think the actual story is … other (of course) than the regular daily dose of “Julia is a lying b*tch!!!!”

  34. Shell bell

    Some unstructured thoughts:

    (1) Bearing in mind that Mr Rudd has to all intents and purposes run FA since he was elected PM and down to a lowish level of detail, it would be highly likely that there would be significant changes with a change in Minister for Foreign Affairs. In his earlier days there were criticisms that he tended to drop done deals on the regional neighborhood. IMHO, both Mr Rudd and his colleagues (with the possible exception of Mr Ludwig) appeared to have learned from that. So a basic, more collegiate style, is likely to persist.
    (2) The Government may decide to save some money and gain some friends by dropping the quest for Security Council Seatdom.
    (3) It appeared to me that Mr Rudd rather set the agenda for FA and tended not to focus on some issues which were of greater interest to the government as a whole. A new FA might be more amenable to collegiate priorities.
    (4) It would be unlikely that a new FA minister would substantially alter our stance on Afghanistan, Iran or the US alliance.
    (5) Just how much Mr Rudd ran FA as a means to the end of a post-political significant international job is not known.

  36. [Gosh what a shock, the story is about Gillard, Rudd, the vote, the faction leaders, the faceless men, leaks….yes, of course.]
    And the eyes glaze over when this stuff is mentioned.

  37. The Finnigans
    [Amazing, no #leadershits or PM Gillard bashing tonight on #ABC730. Now @CUhlmann that wasnt too painful, was it? #auspol]
    A rainy night on a Canberra park bench works wonders 🙂

  39. ML:

    You are flogging a horse which never bolted. A concoction of the NEws ltd press, dreamed up in concert with the Liberals, who have been similarly flogging said horse.

    Why do you bother with this superficial, irrelevent tabloid rubbish?

  40. Smithe @ 4020

    I wish it was that narrow. It is so deeply entrenched people who would normally try to stay neutral (say because their job description includes influencing govt) are openly mocking the govt.

  41. Lying – we’ve all done, to a certain degree, so who are we to throw stones

    Who cares if Howard lied, or didn’t lie – who cares if Gillard lied, or didn’t lie – no big deal to me – media propaganda tool

    For politicians, it’s what they’ve achieved – it’s the reform they’ve implemented that counts – the big picture

  42. So the Ruddialists are saying that the real point of the ‘Carr Affair’ is that someone in caucus leaked.

    In other words, either:

    1. Kevin and his followers were lying when they said they would unite behind Gillard, and are treacherously undermining the elected leader of their party contrary to their public utterances;

    OR

    2. Kevin was perfectly sincere about not undermining the PM, but is unable to command the respect of his followers.

    Given those two options, I really think, if I were in Ruddenial, I’d be blaming the media.

  43. [Got wind of what exactly?]

    How did the media find out Gillard had spoken to Carr?

    How did the media find out Carr had been offered the FM position (whoever made the offer)?

    All of this could only have come from the ALP….the leaking continues.

    You contend that the Australian is making up the report that Carr answered “yes” to the question whether he was offered the FM position. Fine, lets wait for more information, we all know more will come with this ALP and the various unhappy components thereof

  44. imacca

    [Wow. Must be something in the water in N.Z.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/winston-peters-ejected-from-parliament/story-fn3dxity-1226286530586

    Mr Peters is the first MP to be kicked out of the debating chamber this term.

    How many have been chucked out of ours in the last week??]
    That and the speaker takes no shit from anyone. Last year he turfed a cabinet minister for not stopping speaking immediately the speaker stood up. He said in wtte tough titties if he did not see him stand up, dems da rules.

  45. smithe
    Posted Thursday, March 1, 2012 at 7:19 pm

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/02/27/gillard-73-rudd-29/comment-page-80/#comment-1184180

    [Its just good news that the media (since 4C I think) are cottoning on to the fact that you cannot take anything Gillard says at face value- look for the deception.

    ______

    You sir are a complete wangker. She’s probably one of the straightest PMs we’ve ever had, honesty wise.

    Recall that during the recent leadership ructions she released all journos from any and all ethical obligations to keep her as a source mute, and invited them to ask each other whether she’d ever said a disloyal word to any of them about Rudd when he was PM. You could hear the crickets.

    Then, when she invited Rudd to do the same, he effectively took the Fifth.

    As for you boys Howard and Abbott, they run on lies. Not the unleaded kind, but ful-strength porkies.

    Abbott admits it and Howard, well, look no further than WMD’s, Children Overboard and the AWB fiasco. That plonker used to pull his Government into the Propaganda Station every morning and fill ‘er-up with untruths for the days politicking.

    And you’ve got the cheek to come along here and tell us Gillard is a liar and unfit for office?

    Oh puhleeeeeeze.]

    Right-Wing Projection, Smithe. Right-wingers projecting their own behavior / motives onto their opponents. It comes as instinctively to RWers as breathing.

    Take, for another example, this character, who popularised the term “Juliar”…

    http://www.news.com.au/national/police-baffled-by-alan-jones-claim-convoy-of-no-confidence-trucks-stopped-at-act-border/story-e6frfkvr-1226119691411

  47. French Socialists to hit the Super Rich
    ____________________
    If they win the coming election(and kick out the poisoned dwarf..Sarkosy)the Socialists are planning a Suoer Tax on the SuperRich…of 75% on very high incomes
    WOW How would Abbot like that tax on Palmer and Forrest and Reinhardt and the likes

    The Curtin Govt did something like that during WW2

  48. [ All of this could only have come from the ALP….the leaking continues.

    You contend that the Australian is making up the report that Carr answered “yes” to the question whether he was offered the FM position. Fine, lets wait for more information, we all know more will come with this ALP and the various unhappy components thereof ]

    So the story is about “leaks” now? Not about who said what to whom? Is this the new party line now – “We can’t lay a glove on Gillard, she’s too clever – so let’s undermine her by claiming that someone is undermining her, and implying that it’s Rudd!”?

    And by the way, I believe Bob Carr has denied he had been offered the FM position by Julia. Are you claiming he is also lying? After admitting that you actually know F*** all about any of it?

    What’s left of your shamaham arguments now?

  49. [2. Kevin was perfectly sincere about not undermining the PM, but is unable to command the respect of his followers.]

    And a myriad of other possibilities. By all means blame Rudd, it is become a standing joke as the public that this ‘it is all Rudd’s fault’ is a load of bs.

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