Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.
UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.
UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.
Why doesn’t Labor suspend standing orders themselves and force debate on policy – day after day after day and exposure abbott’s lack of policy?
I think its appropriate that BW wins the sweep, as it was BW I think that first talked of the Rudd whiteanting, when many of us refused to believe it
BIG SHIP. I agree with you that I think Rudd is done this parliament (and might even be eyeing the job of reformist oppostion leader – I kid you not. However, as to Julia’s immediate future, I suggest that you read John Black in the back page of the AFR (no link, I’m afraid). He lays out a timetable for the next leadership coup.
Well let’s see if I can get this up from 11am
Julia Gillard 1 – rats, leakers, and their media enablers 0
Oh and poroti I picked 71-31 in my post last night but it got missed. (in case there’s a chop in it)
zoomster,
[ Diog
I was waiting for him to thank the cameraman…. ]
Couldn’t do that because it’s Joe! Can’t bowl, can’t bat! 😉
Ms Gillard now has what Mr Abbott clearly lacks:
(1) The overwhelming support of her party room.
(2) The support of the majority of representatives in both houses of parliament.
(3) Increasing trend in support for her party’s 2PP in the polling.
(4) More votes than Mr Abbott in the last election.
I wonder how Mr Abbott will cope with the blowtorch to the belly as the heat heads in his direction?
Tonight’s delectation on Leveson:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/feb/24/leveson-inquiry-stephenson-yates
Link to Kevin Rudd’s speech
Amazing that Abbott would refer to the 1/3 that didnt vote for Gillard, when 1/2 didnt vote for him. I assume no one in the MSM pointed that out
Im moving a spill against Crikey’s servers~!
Pretty good short-term and long-term result for the ALP I feel. Keeps this minority govt stable, a very solid win for Gillard as leader, but Rudd has done enough at 31 to turn to if needed in 2013.
The only thing that depresses me is the view – oft expresssed – that the ALP is set against Rudd regardless of how bad the polls get.
I for one find that unacceptable – theyd give us Abbott rather than allow Rudd back. I still hope that electoral wisdom instead prevails if the hour of need comes. Fortunately, A third of caucus seem to realise that avenue should be kept open.
Moreover, it seems Shorten would probably let Gillard lose rather than challenge this term. He probably calculates (rightly) that Abbott will be terrible and get booted in 3 or 6 years. Again, I find that unacceptable, not to play to win at every election.
Otherwise, Im happy to move at this point myself, in the spirit etc. I actually think the whole thing has been worthwhile, for reasons stated earlier. Albo has certainly helped matters, and considerably reduced the bitterness.
TBS
[The task now for the ALP and for Julia Gillard is, to quote Abraham Lincoln, to bind up the nation’s (and the party’s) wounds, and with charity for all and malice towards none]
Lincoln installed all of his main rivals in the key Cabinet positions.
Is Gillard going to do that?
[Boerwar
Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 at 3:25 pm | Permalink
Ms Gillard now has what Mr Abbott clearly lacks:
(1) The overwhelming support of her party room.
(2) The support of the majority of representatives in both houses of parliament.
(3) Increasing trend in support for her party’s 2PP in the polling.
(4) More votes than Mr Abbott in the last election.
I wonder how Mr Abbott will cope with the blowtorch to the belly as the heat heads in his direction?]
Hi fellow smart tipper, congratulations, but poroti seems to have disappeared has he taken the cutlets and cut and run?
Agree with your points as listed
Us ‘bumboat’ people stick together
BW i think we can guarantee the MSM will apply no such blowtorch, which is why he can talk about the PM not having the support for 1/3 her party room, when he was only elected by 1/2 plus one.
Boerwar
Congratulations. Well done!
Diog
not sure how she’ll play it. I find it interesting that she’s apparently in no rush to fill FM position & has made clear Emerson temporary.
I think Sophie was a naughty girl just then. Albo took offence at something she said. Butter-wouldn’t-melt-in-her-mouth said “‘Mensa’ isn’t offensive”. Draw your own conclusions.
Congratulations to the Labor Party and Prime Minister Gillard on a fantastic leadership ballot victory. What does this mean in politics?
Two things:
1. The end of K.Rudd and any future leadership speculation of the Labor Party.
2. The end of the idiotic rantings and ravings of Thomas Paine and Evan who now should ZIP and free us heaps of PB bandwidth. 🙂
Bloody blondie and Britney are hard to listen to. Everything is good for the oppoaition and bad for the government as far as they are concerned.
The PM did.
The PM did.
[Denise @SpudBenBean Close
@lapuntadelfin @Jansel17 Although I think he meant Mark Simkin (ABC Canberra). Phil Hudson (NewsLtd) is married to Lyndal Curtis (ABC).]
I didn’t know that , taking about Rudd’s confidants, and Lyndal Curtis is married to Phil Hudson
Comments back at last! Well no meat tray for me 21 against 31.
Even the media is reporting it as a thumping win, which it was. Hawker is likely on the outer now – fancy trying to run a primaries campaign! His former company lives on, however. Michael Gleeson for Hawker Britain gave a very good account of things on ABC.
Media trivia is not over, but the most troublesome part of it is. They should have enough clear air to get a bit of positive news out there. It might be a small caucus but Gillard has increased her authority because of that win, and it shows in her confidence.
My best guess is a fairly minimal reshuffle to make sure all injuries are healed. Rudd’s gone and probably McClelland (his position is surely untenable in saying the government can’t win under Gillard.) The other Ruddites are probably safe but may be shuffled around slightly.
Despite backing Rudd, Bowen probably deserves a break from Immigration. Maybe he could get another can of worms with Water and the MDB. Burke maybe Trade or Emergency Services. A hard hitter like O’Connor could take immigration and allow one of the newer young stars into the Education support role he had.
[The only thing that depresses me is the view – oft expresssed – that the ALP is set against Rudd regardless of how bad the polls get.
I for one find that unacceptable – theyd give us Abbott rather than allow Rudd back.]
IMO the last part should read:
[ – they’d give us another candidate rather than allow Rudd back.]
I think if Rudd keeps his nose clean and heals some wounds he might get another crack but not necessarily at a time of his own choosing. He now has to hope the party calls him.
Rudd on the backbench:
Bob Brown publicly advising the PM on how to reshuffle her cabinet, including suggesting a new portfolio – the Minister for Something Else – for Martin Ferguson.
That Hawker advisor guy is on ABCnews24 and he is blaming the Ministers threatening to not serve under Rudd. He is still criticising and whining and banging on about Rudd’s popularity. It is time to give this guy the boot.
As if I have to tell you, Crikey, having Pollbludger down today was a major major #FAIL.
SA ex numbers man Chris Schacht was pretty good this am. He said Rudd wouldn’t do anything from the backbenches. He’ll wait and watch the polls.
If Gillards polling improves, leadership won’t be an issue. If the polls don’t improve in 3-6 months, caucus will get nervous and look around at its options which would be Rudd or the Third Man.
Mr Lincoln could afford to take a risk. As POTUS he did not face a leadership spill. The possible exception was the ‘Little Napoleon’ who was the people’s princess of his day. In some curious parallels with his latter day PP, the general was paralyzed into non-decision- making but talked up a storm. The foot soldiers and the public loved him. Oh, and he toyed with the notion of a coup.
Education needs an experienced and strong hand at the wheel.
[The end of K.Rudd and any future leadership speculation of the Labor Party.
2. The end of the idiotic rantings and ravings of Thomas Paine and Evan who now should ZIP and free us heaps of PB bandwidth.]
Centre I believe you will be incorrect on both these points.
I just hope that option is left open Tom. Obviously I accept its “last resort” for 2/3rds of caucus.
But frankly, if its that or Abbott – it should be a no brainer. I take some comfort that quite of lot of caucus feels that way already.
I think O’Connor was disappointing as Home Affairs minister combining with McLlelland to make a weak Law & Justice Department which has impoved a lot under Roxon.
O’Connor was, among other things, responsible for privacy, which he appears to have interpreted as keeping the issue of privacy private since the Law Reform Commission report (now 3 years old) gather dust without being released.
DIO,
Are you trying to say the ALP will do this again in three to six months? Have you been inhaling anaesthetic fumes?
TLM must be terribly disappointed that, so far, his man has indicated no intention to do his bidding and wreck the place and bring down the government.
[The end of K.Rudd and any future leadership speculation of the Labor Party.]
Sky claim it’s over for Rudd.
[I think Sophie was a naughty girl just then. Albo took offence at something she said. Butter-wouldn’t-melt-in-her-mouth said “‘Mensa’ isn’t offensive”. Draw your own conclusions.]
I think it is a fair assumption that whatever offensive word or phrase rhymes with or sounds like “mensa” is what she said. Maybe she made a joke about the PM being pre-menstral.
Wouldn’t put it past her at all. Lowest of the low, is our Sophie.
BW
[Oh, and he toyed with the notion of a coup.]
Yes, there was a bit of talk of a coup before Antietam.
Little Napoleon was even worse than Rudd as a narcissist. His letters to his wife were just breathtakingly arrogant.
I agree its time for Hawker to shut up now. I say that as a noted pro-Rudd Bludger.
(well a GRN, with an active and rather one-eyed interest in the the ALP leadership question.)
Puffy
Schacht, an ex Labor Senator and numbers man, said it might happen if the polls didn’t improve.
Rudd is finished, there is absolutely no way that he will ever lead the ALP again.
Rudd now has the record of the worst ever modern day (since the Whitlam era) ballot defeat in political history.
It was a massacre!
Move on to next leadership spill, that of the
in about Nov 2012. 😎
lefty e
not yet…. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-27/rudd27s-camp-27misjudged27-power-of-factions/3855348
spare us – factional leaders!!!
DIOGENES – I doubt it will take 6 months. The trend will be up, or the trend will be down.
Rudd will now sit on the back bench as quiet as a church mouse. He won’t talk to his supporters (he won’t need to); he won’t talk to anyone about the leadership (maybe not even Therese). Like a smart politician, he will just sit and wait for one of the Praetorian guard to make a move.
And, if all else fails, he will be back after the next election as a reforming Opposition Leader (sorry boys, chuckie ain’t going anywhere)
Keep it humble guys: As well as the widest margin, Gillard also got the *narrowest* ballot margin for a first-term PM.
Unusual times. Precedents arent that helpful.
[Mr Lincoln could afford to take a risk. As POTUS he did not face a leadership spill.]
But interestingly the position for Lincoln in April prior to the November election in 1864 was looking dire and he was personally conceding defeat.
tlbd 66
albo despises her
[TLM must be terribly disappointed that, so far, his man has indicated no intention to do his bidding and wreck the place and bring down the government.]
Wow. I wasn’t aware that Evan wielded so much power.
All hail King Evan! 😉
[And, if all else fails, he will be back after the next election as a reforming Opposition Leader (sorry boys, chuckie ain’t going anywhere)]
I doubt it. He wouldn’t get past Shorten.
rosa @ 53
Is this what you refer to?
http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/loyalty_not_to_be_counted_on_Pcj9Dv60FX6zATpzZQeoWO
I think there’ll be a lot of resistance to a leadership move after this. Members will take a lot more convincing than would have been the case had this brutal challenge not occurred.
Diogs,
“Lincoln installed all of his main rivals in the key Cabinet positions”.
Lincoln was shot!