The government is down a Foreign Minister this evening (the Canberra Times reports on the likely shape of the looming reshuffle, in case you were wondering), and by all accounts the Prime Minister will seek to clear the air tomorrow by calling a leadership spill for Monday. This makes the timing of the next Newspoll very interesting indeed: usually it reports on Monday evening, but it occasionally emerges a day earlier. The Prime Minister would presumably prefer that the matter be resolved before it comes out rather than after.
Beyond that, I do not venture to guess what will occur, beyond observing the consensus view that Kevin Rudd will be seeking to wound rather than kill, as he starts far behind on most caucus head-counts. Two such have been published: an error-ridden effort from The Weekend Australian which was corrected the following Monday, and this from the Sydney Morning Herald. The former was rather kinder to Rudd. There are 51 out of 103 whom The Oz and the SMH agree are firm for Gillard, and 30 whom they agree are firm for Rudd. There are four agreed Gillard leaners and four agreed Rudd leaners. The Oz has six down as undecided, but the SMH has everyone as either firm or leaning.
Gillard supporters: Albanese, O’Neill, Combet, Clare, Fitzgibbon, Owens, Arbib, Thistlethwaite, Garrett, Bird, Grierson, Plibersek, Burke (NSW); Shorten, O’Connor, King, Feeney, Macklin, Gillard, Dreyfus, Danby, Roxon, Marles (Vic); Ripoll, Emerson, Perrett, Ludwig, Hogg, Neumann, Swan, D’Ath (Qld); Evans, Gray, Sterle, Smith (WA); McEwen, Farrell, Ellis, Butler, Georganas (SA); Julie Collins, Sidebottom (Tas); Leigh, Brodtmann, Lundy (ACT); Snowdon (NT).
Oz says Gillard lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Rowland (NSW), Livermore (Qld), Gallacher (SA).
Oz says undecided, SMH says firm for Gillard: Hayes (NSW), Jenkins, Jacinta Collins, Kelvin Thomson (Vic).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Craig Thomson (NSW), McLucas (Qld), Rishworth (SA).
Gillard leaners: Craig Thomson, Bradbury (NSW); Bilyk, Polley (Tas).
Oz says undecided, SMH says Gillard lean: Symon (Vic), Singh (Tas).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says Gillard lean: Laurie Ferguson (NSW), Champion (SA).
Oz says firm Rudd, SMH says firm Gillard: Melham (NSW).
Rudd leaners: Murphy (NSW); Pratt (WA); Adams, Lyons (Tas).
Rudd supporters: Bowen, Cameron, Husic, Saffin, Hall, Faulkner, Elliott, Kelly, McClelland, Jones, Stephens (NSW); Griffin, Burke, Byrne, Cheeseman, Marshall, Carr, Smyth, Vamvakinou, Ferguson (Vic); Moore, Rudd, Furner (Qld); Bishop, Parke (WA); Zappia (SA); Urquhart, Brown, Sherry (Tas); Crossin (NT).
If you’re in the mood for diversion, as many have been lately, here is a review of some recent preselection action, in keeping with this site’s brief (together with an even more diverting diversion to New Zealand).
• The Liberals are mulling over whether to proceed with the endorsement of Garry Whitaker to run against Craig Thomson in Dobell, following allegations he has lived for years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. Whitaker won a preselection vote in December, but there is talk the state executive might overturn the result and install the candidate he defeated, the Right-backed WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. As for Labor, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports there is “no chance” Thomson will be preselected again, “with party strategists favouring the nomination fo a young woman to create maximum differentiation from the tainted MP”. One possibility is local councillor Emma McBride, whose father Grant McBride bowed out as state member for The Entrance at last year’s state election.
• Joanna Gash, who has held the south coast NSW seat of Gilmore for the Liberals since 1996, announced last month that she would not seek another term. She plans to move her political career down a notch by running in the direct election for mayor of Shoalhaven in September, which will not require her to resign her seat in parliament (UPDATE: A reader points out that the O’Farrell government is planning to change this, and that there is a strong chance it will do so before September.) Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the front-runner to succeed her as Liberal candidate is local deputy mayor Andrew Guile, a former staffer to Gash who has since fallen out with her. Salusinszky reports Guile is an ally of state Kiama MP Gareth Ward, “a member of the party’s Left faction who is influential in local branches”. Clive Brooks, owner of South Nowra business Great Southern Motorcycles and reportedly an ally of Gash, has also been mentioned as a possible contender, as have “conservative pastor Peter Pilt and former 2007 state election candidate Ann Sudmalis” (by Mario Christodoulou of the Illawarra Mercury).
• A Liberal Party preselection vote on Saturday will see incumbent Louise Markus challenged by aged-care lobbyist Charles Wurf in Macquarie. According to Imre Salusinszky in The Australian, local observers consider the contest too close to call: “A defeat of Ms Markus would be a stick in the eye to federal leader Tony Abbott, who backs sitting MPs, and to the state party machine, which does not wish to devote precious campaign resources to marketing an unknown in the ultra-marginal seat.”
• In Eden-Monaro, former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Peter Hendy is reckoned likely to win Liberal endorsement.
• Andrew Southcott, the Liberal member for the Adelaide seat of Boothby, is being challenged for preselection by Chris Moriarty, former state party president and operator of an export manufacturing firm. Daniel Wills of The Advertiser reports Moriarty is a close ally of former state Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith. Also challenging is Mark Nankivell, whom Wills rates as “little known” but rumoured to be supported by another former state leader, Iain Evans. Southcott’s lax fund-raising efforts are said to have angered many in the party.
• Also under challenge is Patrick Secker in the rural South Australian seat of Barker. He faces rivals in the shape of Mount Gambier lawyer Tony Pasin and Millicent real estate agent and Wattle Range councillor Ben Treloar, but Daniel Wills reports he is expected to prevail.
• New Zealand is conducting a review into its mixed member proportional electoral system, which received a strong endorsement from voters at a referendum held in conjunction with the November election. The main concern to have emerged is that candidates can run both in constituencies and as part of the party lists which are used to top up parties’ representation so that their parliamentary numbers are proportional to the votes cast. The most frequently cited anomaly here relates to the Auckland electorate of Epsom, which has been held since 2005 by Rodney Hine of the free-market Act New Zealand party. The National Party has an interest in the seat remaining in the Act New Zealand fold, as the party is its natural coalition partner and success in a constituency seat entitles it to a share of seats proportional to its vote (a failure to do so would require them to clear a 5 per cent national vote threshold). To this end it has formed the habit of running a candidate in the seat who is also given an unloseable position on the party list, so supporters can be reassured that he will have a seat even if he loses in Epsom. One possibility is that the problem might be lessened by lowering the threshold to 4 per cent, which is what the original royal commission into the electoral system recommended before MMP was introduced in 1996.
[I think Rudd made a good speech.]
I agree.
Rudd was impressive in three areas:
1. He listed his achievemrnts in government (something the MSM would dare not show again in their coverage).
2. He listed the faults of Abbott in a better way that Gillard has ever done (again, something the MSM would dare not show again in their coverage).
3. Rudd knows, like I have been saying from day 1, to keep away from the Greens, they are bad news.
What do people think about Rudd\’s proposal that the trading period, e.g. the ETS period of the clean energy scheme should start earlier?
Currently it won\’t start until July 1, 2015. Rudd seemed to imply that it should start earlier, e.g. July 1, 2013?
What do you think? If the price floats down, that would take pressure off the government.
PMZ
[erm, that’s the exact opposite impression i got from what he said in the conference (about members being able to vote however they want with a secret ballot)
And not before time good on him!
How long before Rudd has a complete mental meltdown? There is definitely something very wrong going on within those grey cells.
[I agree.
Rudd was impressive in three areas:]
Rudd sounded like a leader whereas Gillard sounds like an administrator.
That\’s why many people can\’t relate to Gillard.
[Most interesting things from Rudd’s Presser.
1. He’s running. (Which he is entitled to.)
2. Says he has only one shot in the locker.]
Yes Keating said he only had one shot in the locker too before the first ballot.
But more to the point, Rudd is clearly saying to the caucus \”elect me now, or you\’ll end up having to draft me later on anyway when Gillard\’s poll numbers keep tanking\”.
Gillard can only be criticised in 3 areas.
1. The implementation of the Greens carbon tax.
2. The East Timor/ Malaysian solution.
3. Her so called commitment to Wilkie.
Not bad really, many PMs in the past have done worse. Julia has outperformed in my view.
Centre
If (note that word) Rudd gets up he has no choice but to engage with the Greens. To get Bandt’s vote in the lower house, and especially in the senate where they hold the balance of power. If he tries, as he did last time, to do deals with the Noalition he might just as well hand over the PMship to Abbott.
That of course IF he gets up.
problem with government ok lets just blame krudd. it wasn’t krudd who came up with the east timor solution or the carbon tax. great speech this guy is a far superior campaigner ,politician and policy creator than gillard or abbott will ever be.
Didn’t he threaten Ch 7 that he’d sue if they aired the programme they had advertised.
HMMMM – so Rudd thinks ministry and cabinet should be decided by the caucus but the PM should be decided on the basis of popularity with the – to quote his wife – ‘ordinary people’. Probably by a ‘ring this number if you want Kev for PM’ set-up. Somehow that just doesn’t add up.
Speaking of that politician’s wife, I’m a bit over being told I’m ‘ordinary’ or ‘everyday’ by our ruling class. What’s wrong with just ‘Australians’ or ‘voters’?
There’ll be a Nielsen out tonight (in tomorrow’s SMH/Age)
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/voters-make-their-decision-on-labor-leadership-20120224-1tsfn.html
[The Herald has just finished a comprehensive Nielsen poll of voters on how they think the Labor leadership struggle should be resolved.
The exclusive poll, to be revealed tomorrow, asks the question gripping the nation’s voters: do they prefer Julia Gillard or Kevin Rudd to be prime minister?
Voters have also been asked the equally poignant question of whether the party should now swap leaders – and the findings throw light on the dilemma facing senior party figures.
The poll also questions voters on whether a federal election should now be called.
For all the details, see the Herald tomorrow.]
It’s neither here nor there. This is basically going back to that aspect of the CPRS and the starting position of Julia Gillard when negotiating with the Greens.
I don’t think it’s a bad idea, nor is it a good idea.
What it is is a pointless idea because to change the starting point we would need to bring the CEF bills back through parliament and go through the whole rigamarole again after finally getting it settled. All to tweak the start date if he could get those changes through, which is basically impossible in the current parliament anyway.
ie the cynic in me says it’s a confected “point of difference” with what Julia Gillard achieved with no fundamental basis in belief or practical chance of being implemented regardless of what happens with the ALP leadership. It’s a claytons position for the sake of having a position to talk about.
Either I am going crazy of the blog keeps re-setting itself
[Gillard can only be criticised in 3 areas.
1. The implementation of the Greens carbon tax.
2. The East Timor/ Malaysian solution.
3. Her so called commitment to Wilkie.
Not bad really, many PMs in the past have done worse. Julia has outperformed in my view.]
All she has done is implemented most of the policies of the man she knifed, then claim credit for them. Her own ideas have been rubbish.
Back to p58
leone – ‘ordinary’ = ‘werking’
oh god it’s the endless 58!
CENTRE – What about the pokies debacle?
Yes it seems that it is easier to be against someone when you say they are mentally unstable.
This is a standard thing that humans do. Once they have decided they don\’t like something or someone they then have to set about building an elaborate set of justifications for that position, many which don\’t actually bare any relation to reality.
58 59 60 58 59 58 🙁
As far as I am concerned I think it could be the breakdown of the factions that has caused a lot of problems. Each faction had a leader to which the others could go to put forward policy ideas, complain or whatever. All could discuss come to some form of agreement and then put a collective view to the Caucus.
What is wrong with a left, centre and right faction or less or more? I’ve served on enough community committees to know each one had its separate factions or groupings.
After the 2007 loss I remember a couple of Liberal ex pollies saying that they thought the Libs needed more pronounced factions like the Labor Party to keep the Party disclipined. Now they have one leader who doesn’t allow anyone a dissenting voice and there is division and hatred among some in the Party. Their desire to win Govt. is keeping them from saying anything but what will happen when the moderates can’t work with the Rwer in Govt.
Labor’s lack of Party discipline is demoralising to loyal members and supporters.
PM‘s Presser coming up @ 4:10 pm on Sky
Been out picking up friends from the plane, sadly missed Kevin speech, but see Fairfax is reporting 68 Gillard 29 Rudd 6 undecided including ALBO leaning Rudd????? And Nielsen is bringing out a poll tomorrow strange that
CENTRE – Ooops, I see what you mean about Wilkie.
But do you think that if Julia was elected PM with a big majority she would have done anything at all? Not a hope. She’s a political player, an implementer, a retail politician, but has no ideas of her own. That is why her being forced to form a minority govt was, paradoxically, very good for the country,
I see that those CERN particles that exceeded the speed of light didn’t after all. Loose cable.
BB I am getting fed up with your post 2880
I see that those CERN particles that exceeded the speed of light didn’t after all. Loose cable.
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
Listen you jokers, one fundamental is clear from day 1: The Caucus will not kick out another serving PM. Period.
rosa,
Rudd’s not talking about Pokies since he will be asked a few sticky questions in the near future.
Who should be deputy leader instead of Wayne Swan who is undeserving of the role?
With all due respect to BB, I’m getting very tired of re reading his post at the bottom of p. 58
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
Listen you jokers, one fundamental is clear from day 1: The Caucus will not kick out another serving PM. Period.
Rosa
[What about the pokies debacle?]
You mean the one Rudd was busily trying to undermine? 😉
[TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
Listen you jokers, one fundamental is clear from day 1: The Caucus will not kick out another serving PM. Period.]
Yes it seems they will have to just wait for her to resign, which will probably happen in about 6 months.
Leave Swannie up to us QLD’ers we will cook his goose come election time
So @TP and the rest have vested interest over policy, thus over Australia.
Sounds like normal PB to me.
MARI – 30 at the moment makes Rudd very viable because every one of those would be locked in. However, I’ve got no idea how many of Julia’s supporters are locked in in a secret ballot.
Been kicked-off with ‘intrnal server erros’ all afternoon.
Wazzup? The Crikey hamster on go-slow again?
MARI – 30 at the moment makes Rudd very viable because every one of those would be locked in. However, I’ve got no idea how many of Julia’s supporters are locked in in a secret ballot.
So are any of you prepared to stand up and justify Gillard’s poor form in accusing Assange of being a criminal?
I doubt it. Wusses.
I don\’t understand Gillard\’s handling of the Gonski review.
Why doesn\’t the government for once just get the findings of a review and implement them?
Rudd made this mistake with the Henry review; Gillard has made the same mistake with the Gonski review.
After you do a big review of some issue, voters just expect action. Just DO SOMETHING, or say that there are no problems and move on.
Giving the factions back their power in choice of ministers is a cunning offer – but not enough, I’d say.
It was Rudd who insisted that the 1908 tradition of Caucus electing cabinet should be abolished. He was allowed to and pick the ministry and couldn’t work with them – good luck with working with an elected ministry. Although I guess a lot of the trouble makers will refuse to stand.
[I see that those CERN particles that exceeded the speed of light didn’t after all. ]
BW, only Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc is faster than light
It may well come to this, and I have said so before. At the moment I think this is the most likely scenario, although everything is up in the air and almost anything is possible right now.
The frustration a lot of people feel about Kevin Rudd’s current shenanigans is that it has muddied the waters further – rather than a dignified exit for Julia Gillard in 6 months time or whatever, if the polls fail to improve (as you have confidently predicted over and over and over again), we have Kevin Rudd sticking his mug in the frame and going “look at moi”, once again, at just the wrong time for the ALP (budget coming up soon, July 1 introduction of the carbon price, MRRT, etc).
If he had kept his head down being a decent FM, and had kept his trap shut to all his journo mates, things would be quite different, and the future of the ALP would have been a lot brighter all round.
But no.
so Rudd says he will “review” carbon pricing ?
Who would have thunk ?
Good-Bye Carbon Pricing, kevins greatest moral challenge of all time,
Good bye MRRT
Good Bye media enquiry
look forward to the privatiseation of the NBN
If Rudd wins so do the vested interests.
and Rudds fans ?
well its always Style over Policy for them.
Stuff the ALP stand for something, its all a big brother style popularity contest to these guys
Lol at Rudd’s Revenge. What a rabble.
I hope Gillard announces she is resigning.
Greentard
[Who should be deputy leader instead of Wayne Swan who is undeserving of the role?]
Couldn’t agree more on Swan! How about Combet?