Morgan phone poll: 55-45 to Coalition

Three new poll results from Roy Morgan, if you please. Despite its modest sample of 543 and high margin of error of over 4 per cent, the phone poll conducted over the past two nights is the most interesting, both for its currency and for the fact that phone polling has a clearly superior track record to Morgan’s Labor-biased face-to-face polls. Averaging Morgan’s phone poll results back to May gives almost the exact same result as for Newspoll, although the smaller samples mean Morgan has been more erratic from poll to poll.

The latest result is within the margins of recent results from other pollsters, although slightly at the Coalition end of the scale: their two-party lead is 55-45 compared with most others’ 54-46, with primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 46.5 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. The phone poll does not replicate the issue I keep going on about of Morgan’s face-to-face polling producing wildly different results according to whether preferences are distributed as per the result of the last election or according to respondents’ stated intentions. It instead gives us 55-45 on respondent-allocated and 55.5-44.5 on previous-election, and thus chimes with this week’s Nielsen which in fact had Labor’s share of preferences slightly higher than at the election.

Speaking of which, Morgan has published not one but two sets of face-to-face figures. Normally Morgan either publishes results from its regular weekend polling the following Friday (or occasionally Thursday), but sometimes it holds off for a week and publishes a result a combined result from two weekends. This time they have held off for a week and published separate results for each weekend. The earlier poll, conducted on January 28/29 (Australia Day having been the preceding Thursday), was remarkably positive for Labor: not only did they maintain their lead on the previous-election (51-49) method from the result published a fortnight ago, they also opened a lead on the respondent-allocated measure (50.5-49.5), which for once looked similar to the previous election result. The primary votes were 39.5 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 10 per cent for the Greens.

However, the polling on February 4/5 told a somewhat different story, with the Coalition up four points to 45.5 per cent, Labor down one to 38.5 per cent and the Greens down half to 9.5 per cent. This panned out to a 53.5-46.5 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences and 51.5-48.5 on previous election. The polls individually had a sample of 1000 and theoretically a margin of error of around 3 per cent. However, the more telling point is how much Morgan face-to-face results continue to differ from other series which have consistently proved nearer the mark. In 2011, the average primary vote for Labor in Morgan was 35.9 per cent, compared with 34.1 per cent for Essential Research, 30.7 per cent for Newspoll and 29.5 per cent for Nielsen. The gap between Essential and the latter two is partly accounted for by Essential having a consistently lower result for the Greens: on two-party preferred, Essential and Newspoll were fairly similar.

For a look at the bigger polling picture, Possum surveys a landscape of flat calm 54-46 polling going back to November.

UPDATE (13/2): Another week, another 54-46 Essential Research result. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor is back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval finds both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but Gillard has nonetheless made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expect her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent. A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There’s also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.

We also had a teaser last night from Newspoll, which had Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,682 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. SK – rishane is right. Mark Riley looks a fool in that piece. What a heap of claptrap. Lenore Taylor’s piece was bad enough a couple of days ago but Riley hit the jackpot with that bit.

  2. [129 – joe2]

    Agree with you joe2 but even so it’s no big deal. The problem really began with the initial AAP report reguritated throughout the day by other media

    [Amanda Hart: The protest was launched by Aborigines from the nearby Aboriginal tent embassy, sparked by Tony Abbott, who said the embassy, now in its 40th year, should be shut down …

    — Channel Ten News, 26th January, 2012]

    Check out Media Watch for a reasonable though far from comprehensive analysis:

    http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s3424264.htm

  5. Spacey,

    Off-line, I am as silent as the grave and closer to “to dust” than “from dust”

    Negative will not offend, of course.

  7. DavidWH @ 143

    Have to agree to disagree with you Joe. Don’t see much difference to the annual flag changing rhetoric we get every ANZAC Day which offends large groups of Australians.

    What are you on about here comrade?

  8. “Agree with you joe2 but even so it’s no big deal.”

    Tom, Abbott is let off the hook all the time. He says dumb things and there is always an excuse.

  10. [ Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch

    KRudd been promising imminent knifing for months. Believe it when we see it.

    11m Space Kidette Space Kidette @SpaceKidette

    @rupertmurdoch Rudd? More like your Ltd News journo’s. ]

    Is Rupert sending a message to his troops?

  11. [MikeKellyMP Mike Kelly MP
    @
    @GeorgeBludger @GillardHQ @GillardNetwork your creative genius should be given much more scope!! Gonna have these made into campaign badges.]

    george:

    What is Mike Kelly referring to?!

  14. GG, if you’re around, your button idea looks like being “published”:

    [MikeKellyMP: @GeorgeBludger @GillardHQ @GillardNetwork your creative genius should be given much more scope!! Gonna have these made into campaign badges.]

    Made sure Kelly knowns you inspired the pic.

  15. [William Bowe
    Posted Thursday, February 9, 2012 at 9:08 pm | Permalink
    …
    Nobody on our end has said anything about a shared subscription offer, but it’s probably time we did, so I’ll make inquiries about that too.]

    Even though we have a subscription in the house I put my name down last time to support the cause, never heard back.

  20. [BH
    Posted Thursday, February 9, 2012 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch

    KRudd been promising imminent knifing for months. Believe it when we see it.]

    Trying to justify tying to turn a candle into a bushfire. Ruddsteratin is not his fault, it’s not a continual beat up by that irrelevant little rag he publishes in Australia, it’s all the fault of that nasty Mr Rudd over there in the corner.

  22. Also in regards to the MRRT, does anyone know if the Greens Senators are going to be difficult with amendments? Or would they be likely to just pass them as is?

    I’m glad Labor has the extra vote now, I have the feeling that if the bills do get amended and have to go back to the HoR, Wilkie might be a lot less co-operative than last time.

  24. “Did you make any recordings?”

    “No, they were deleted”

    Just wondering, phone messages are not recorded. Not by her, of course. Bet they are still in an archive.

  26. [Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Thursday, February 9, 2012 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    I’m not in PR, but what would be wrong in Ms Gillard or any other Minister saying to Uhlmann words to the effect of ” Mr Uhlmann, you didn’t interrupt Mr Turnbull in the course of your fawning discourse with him yesterday, so kindly afford me the same courtesy after you have concluded conveying his party’s talking points to me.”]

    Because that is not sending them to hell and asking them to enjoy the trip. I think she was polite and made him look like a bit of a drip to be honest.

  28. ‘fess
    [but there is nothing I can see at this point which suggests collusion between the ABC and ABbott’s office.]
    Here is the transcript of the whole doorstop. It is not long. (Unfortunately, I have not been able to find a clip of the whole thing).

    I think the answer to the first question is so more polished, nuanced and well structured than any of the others; several standard deviations away from the other answers, that it may come from a different statistical set

    http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/LatestNews/InterviewTranscripts/tabid/85/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/8541/Doorstop-Interview-Sydney.aspx

  29. Tweet:

    [Paul Bongiorno @PaulBongiorno
    Repeat of the Drum. The ABC believes Judith Sloane should have twice as much time as everyone else!!]

  31. I hope Rupert has a bag packed with a toothbrush and a spare pair of undies coz the FBI gunna be knocking on the front door, any day now. No tweets then.

  35. First view of Bernard Keane in real life, as it where.

    Strange looking dude…older than I thought…looked as if he was continually talking into his hat..

  37. [Strange looking dude…older than I thought…looked as if he was continually talking into his hat..]
    I kept on saying LOOK UP! But he didn’t hear me because Judith Sloan was constantly rabbiting on about something.

  40. ShowsOn – tuna mornay, sshh! my OH has been trying to get me to make one for him for years and my excuse is that it’s too rich for old blokes – milk/cream, cheese, butter. Yum, he says.

    Just watching QT – I didn’t hear what the PM said to Julie Bishop which had to be withdrawn. Can anyone enlighten me please?

  41. Santorum!! *facepalm*

    How could I have missed it.
    Mitt not a true conservative.
    Newt too much baggage and too many ex wives.

    Can the Rickster keep it up?
    Mind you he will be an easier opponent for BO than Romney.
    Could they be that dumb?

  42. Laocoon, well done, it could not be more clear that he called for an end to the embassy. And the bloody liar pretended he had not said it, the day after.

  44. BH,

    There was a point in time that a journalist’s peers would have laughed their colleague out of town if they delivered a story of the quality of that Riley rubbish.

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