Galaxy: 59-41 to LNP in Queensland

Two days late with this one, but let the record note that a Galaxy poll of 800 respondents shows the LNP retaining a huge lead of 59-41 on two-party preferred and 49 per cent to 32 per cent on preferences. This does represent a narrowing on the previous such poll, conducted in mid-November, which had two-party at 62-38 and the primary votes at 28 per cent and 50 per cent. Anna Bligh has also had a slight improvement on personal ratings which are now almost respectable: 43 per cent approval (up two) and 50 per cent disapproval (down three). Campbell Newman however outstrips her with 48 per cent approval (up one) and 37 per cent disapproval (steady), and leads 49-40 as preferred premier (51-40 last time). The poll was conducted by phone on Tuesday and Wednesday nights and has a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent.


Ashgrove (Labor 7.1%): Brisbane lord mayor Graham Quirk has ruled out standing aside to allow for Campbell Newman to return to his old job if he fails to win Ashgrove. This possibility was created by the new election timetable which pushes the council elections out to April 28. A troubling precedent for Newman is the difficulty long-term Labor lord mayor Clem Jones had trying to win state and federal seats in the early 1970s – old stagers recall that the Liberals did well telling voters they should vote against Jones because he was needed at city hall. Campbell Newman meanwhile has taken offence at Labor flyers linking him to the infamous newspaper column by Cairns LNP candidate Gavin King, in which King argues women who are raped while drunk are partly to blame for their own misfortune.

Dalrymple (LNP 15.8%): The Tablelands Advertiser reports that Rosa Lee Long, One Nation member for Tablelands from 2001 to 2009, says the LNP approached her to stand as its candidate. Long contested Dalrymple after Tablelands was abolished at the 2009 election, but was defeated by Shane Knuth, who had held the abolished Charters Towers for the LNP and has since jumped ship for Katter’s Australian Party. The LNP candidate is Liz Schmidt, who has a high profile locally as a livestock transport operator.

Nanango (Independent 2.9% versus LNP): The Australian reports the LNP is insisting it is on track to win both Dalrymple and Nanango, the latter to be contested by former test cricketer and local farmer Carl Rackemann following the retirement of long-serving independent Dorothy Pratt.

Mount Isa (Labor 5.7%): Labor on the other hand reportedly concedes Bob Katter’s son Robbie Katter will be “hard to beat” in Mount Isa, where he will attempt to unseat Labor’s Betty Kiernan. Robbie Katter is another who claims he was approached by LNP talent scouts. His father meanwhile is predicting his party will win at least 20 seats, which not too many would credit.

Logan (Labor 13.9%): LNP candidate Peter Anderson-Barr, a police sergeant, has withdrawn after media reports from 2004 were circulated regarding an incident in which he allegedly struck a person at the Surfers Paradise police post.

Mundingburra (Labor 6.6%): Former Thuringowa councillor David Moyle will run for Katter’s Australian Party after the withdrawal of their original candidate Jason Grigg. Moyle admits to having variously been a member of Labor, Liberal and the Nationals, and sought Nationals preselection for Thuringowa in 2006.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

140 comments on “Galaxy: 59-41 to LNP in Queensland”

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  1. Fun can be expected if the Global downturn gets worse rather than better because on these figures there will be 36 more GFC deniers in the parliament without a finacial principle or any election detail between them and $5 Billion worth of unfunded election promises so far.

    Seats lost with this 9.6% swing against what the ALP achieved in the last election according to Antony Green’s pendulum will be:

    Everton ALP 1.4%
    Broadwater ALP 2.0%
    Cook ALP 2.2%
    Barron River ALP 2.3%
    Toowoomba North ALP 3.2%
    Whitsunday ALP 3.2%
    Southport ALP 3.5%
    Townsville ALP 4.0%
    Springwood ALP 4.1%
    Cairns ALP 4.2%
    Mansfield ALP 4.4%
    Ferny Grove ALP 4.5%
    Kallangur ALP 4.6%
    Pine Rivers ALP 4.6%
    Mount Ommaney ALP 4.8%
    Burleigh ALP 4.9%
    Pumicestone ALP 5.0%
    Mount Coot-tha ALP 5.3%
    Redcliffe ALP 5.6%
    Mount Isa ALP 5.7%
    Brisbane Central ALP 6.0%
    Albert ALP 6.5%
    Mundingburra ALP 6.6%
    Greenslopes ALP 6.9%
    Ashgrove ALP 7.1%
    Murrumba ALP 7.2%
    Stafford ALP 7.3%
    Keppel ALP 7.6%
    Bulimba ALP 7.8%
    Mulgrave ALP 8.1%
    Thuringowa ALP 8.5%
    Yeerongpilly ALP 8.7%
    Morayfield ALP 9.1%
    Algester ALP 9.2%
    Stretton ALP 9.5%
    Ipswich West 9.6%

    This should leave Labor with 15 seats in the parliament on these figures.

  2. All this is bad news for Campell Newman because it is now clear he is not needed as an alternative to Premier Seeney. Nobody will care if Newman wins Ashgrove, becomes Premier or runs for PrimeMinister or Head of the known Universe.Seeney or any other National can win the election himself in a canter without city Liberals to tell him what to do.

  3. If Cambell gets down to Centrelink by 10:00am tomorrow they will probably be able to process his papers by Lunch and he can then call Graham Quirk the Lord Mayor and tell him to start packing up his desk because Campbell’s brilliant plan of winning a close election and being needed as Premier has evaporated. He can then go back to being failed Lord Mayor, failed Premier aspirant and failed Candidate for Ashgrove and work on how to become Prime Minister if his cards fall right.

  4. helbig Koren Helbig
    On ABC this morn, @Campbell_Newman said a career in politics was “yuk”. “You’re there to do a job, not because you need a job.” #qldvotes
    1 hour ago

  5. 62-38 was a bit too good even taking into account how much the QLD government is on the nose. Victories of that margin are very rare. If its around 54-46 on the 24th March that will be big enough.

  6. Electoral Rolls close tomorrow:

    Local Govt Assoc QLD @LGAQ

    Even with changed date for Qld local council poll to 28 April, electoral roll still closes next Tues 31 January. #qldvotes

  7. Interesting that 9% refused to answer or were uncommitted and were thus excluded. Makes those error bars look a bit wide don’t it? Not that we bother which such details.
    Heck no – we’re all scientists now.

  8. Seems highly unlikely that Labor will retain government, but I still think it will be closer than this…..and given Qld’s form a few Katter members are likely.

    Sadly I think its likely that Campbell Newman’s honeymoon will be short-lived, he has been something of a non-entity as Lord Mayor and has left the BCC almost broke…..and how long will the old guard of the National Party put up with him…they are already pushing for greater representation in his yet to be elected cabinet.

    As a Queenslander I remain baffled as to how these whimpy blokes end up leading our major parties here……it just does not gel with our self image.

  9. Big Business behaving badly again threatening Queensland polital balance.

    [Mr Palmer’s letter, including threats of legal action and formal complaints, will again thrust him into the election spotlight after he gained a similar position during the 2009 campaign despite LNP efforts to keep him quiet.

    Labor used Mr Palmer’s support for the LNP to raise concerns about big business influence over the Opposition. However, the billionaire later sued Ms Bligh and Mr Fraser for defamation.

    The comments of Mr Palmer, who has donated $1.1 million to the LNP in the past 18 months, will again force Mr Newman to hose down similar issues.

    Mr Fraser last night described the comments by Waratah Coal as “nothing short of reprehensible”.

    “I find it utterly disgraceful that a big corporate player would seek to threaten government officials in the hope that fair decisions are overturned and favourable decisions were made for them,” he said.

    “This isn’t the Gold Coast of the 1980s – this is Queensland in 2012 and behaviour such as this from Professor Palmer or anyone else simply won’t be tolerated.”]

  10. Here we have Premier Seeney and the Candidate for Ashgrove both supporting a single rail corridor for the Galilee Basin in the Townsville Bulletin 9 May 2011. Another backflip from Newman today obviously.

    [A plan for three huge coal projects to build separate railway lines to the port of Bowen in north Queensland is “crazy”, the Liberal National Party (LNP) says.

    Gina Rinehart’s Hancock project, Clive Palmer’s Waratah and Adani’s project have failed to co-operate on plans to ship coal from the Galilee Basin in central Queensland to Bowen.

    The LNP leadership weighed into the debate on Monday, with LNP leader Campbell Newman and parliamentary Opposition Leader Jeff Seeney calling for a single corridor.

    “It doesn’t pass the commonsense test, does it, to have three separate railway lines transporting coal from three projects that are so closely located to the same port on the coast?” Mr Seeney said.

    Mr Seeney told AAP a lack of government planning was to blame.

    “It’s a continuation of the sort of failure that we’ve seen in the Surat Basin (experiencing a coal seam gas boom) where they haven’t had the regulation, they haven’t had the administration processes in place to control the development there.

    “That’s been the cause of a lot of community anger and a lot of community angst, and understandably so.

    “They should learn from that lesson and get ahead of the game in the Galilee Basin.”

    Mr Seeney said the government’s coordinator-general should do his job and minimise the impact of the coal-transport lines.

    Mr Newman said the government of Labor Premier Anna Bligh needed to show leadership and define a transport corridor for the resources companies.

    “Let’s have one designated corridor and have the companies put their infrastructure in that corridor,” he said.

    Even if the coal companies opted for different-gauge railway systems, they should run down a single corridor, he said.

    Mr Newman told reporters he had discussed the matter with Mr Palmer, a major LNP donor, and he had indicated a preference for a single corridor.]

  11. Some very right wing background to the railways:

    [The main problem faced by the Galilee miners is that it is a
    journey of 500 kilometres to the most suitable port at Bowen.
    That’s a long distance to haul coal.
    A high quality, heavy duty standard gauge rail track is
    the only possibility as the largest possible coal wagons will
    be needed to minimise haulage costs; and the economics of
    financing the capital costs of such a long distance railway
    will mean that a minimum of forty million tonnes per annum
    will have to be carried to keep the bank managers happy.
    Nevertheless, the miners believe that they can achieve this
    figure quite easily.
    The politically interesting fact of the matter is that both
    Gina Rinehart and Clive Palmer each plan to build their own
    Rinehart is currently much further advanced with her
    mines than Palmer and she has done an enormous amount of
    planning for her railway. She will be in the field first and the
    State Government is not going to authorise the building of two

  12. Here is a simpler explanation of the many companies that want railway lines.

    [While QR National hauls much of the coal in the area, BHP Billiton has signalled that it wants to operate and run its own trains on its own railway line in much the same way that companies such as Rio Tinto do in Western Australia.
    The full digital experience

    The corridor proposed by BHP to Abbot Point is a completely separate line to that opened by QR National last month and would be 232km long, starting at BHP’s Goonyella mine and running north until it would link up with a proposed line coming in from the Galilee Basin.

    The linkage point from this BHP line to a line proposed by Clive Palmer’s Waratah Coal would be about 150km from Abbot Point, but a complicating factor is that there is still a separate proposal for another line from the Galilee Basin from Hancock Coal.

    The state government has made clear that it wants only one railway line running from the Galilee Basin to Abbot Point, and it is highly likely that the two lines being proposed will eventually become one.

    The purpose of the BHP line is to cater for growth in its Bowen Basin operations, but the company has already made it clear that it is open to sharing either the railway line itself or the corridor.

    BHP Billiton Metallurgical Coal president Hubie van Dalsen said the company actively supported the concept of a common corridor for multiple rail proponents that would include a dedicated BHP Billiton rail line.]

  13. If everyone builds their own railway line…

    [Gina Rinehart, Australia’s richest person, and fellow billionaire Clive Palmer are among developers planning to develop coal mines in the Galilee Basin to meet demand for coal from Asia. Vale may spend $8 billion developing the 30 million metric-ton-a-year Degulla project in the region.

    “If all providers built their own rail, that would cost north of $4 billion each,” Economidis said during a presentation. “Based on the low margins associated with thermal coal, individual rail corridors are very unlikely to be viable,” according to his presentation slides.]

  14. Clive Palmer has jumped the gun on this rail corridor issue; obviously he can’t wait until 25 March to bully the Queensland Government. This impressive backflip by Campbell Newman has been brought about purely and simply because Clive Palmer’s business strategy has changed. Clearly, Campbell Newman is Clive Palmer’s puppet just as Jeff Seeney is his.

  15. Still running from any form of media scrutiny:

    [PREMIER Anna Bligh has accused Campbell Newman of running scared after the LNP leader failed to commit to a debate in Townsville.

    Ms Bligh yesterday said Mr Newman’s silence showed his feelings for the region, where the LNP is fighting to win a string of seats.

    “He clearly is worried about his position in Townsville,” she said.

    “Townsville, like all parts of regional Queensland, plays an important part in our state.

    “I challenge Campbell Newman to muscle up and agree to this debate.”

    Mr Newman’s leadership team failed to return calls yesterday, but LNP Thuringowa candidate Sam Cox came to his leader’s defence, saying the debate was a publicity stunt designed to take heat off the Government.]

  16. Or they are using speed!

    [State Member for Glass House Andrew Powell (LNP) said the current government had failed to upgrade the road and overtaking lanes were needed at strategic points, but he refused to commit to any expenditure.

    “I’m not going to make a promise until I know I can promise an overtaking lane,” he said.

    “Everyone up there is saying it’s a frustration issue, it’s an issue around the fact that people are getting impatient and overtaking in dangerous spots, or they are using speed.”]

  17. Where’s the money for this one coming from? Now the Candidate for Ashgrove makes the same Tory promise as the past three elections and no funding as usual.

    [LNP Leader Campbell Newman walked a well-trodden political road when he visited Toowoomba yesterday, 53 days out from the state election.

    Mr Newman and Toowoomba’s LNP candidates Trevor Watts and John McVeigh met with media half way up the Toowoomba Range to pledge to party’s commitment to delivering the city’s long awaited bypass.

    While admitting it was a federal issue, Mr Newman said if elected premier he would make the project a top infrastructure priority.

    “I will be putting this forward if I become Premier as one of the top six infrastructure projects in Queensland,” he said.

    “That’s absolutely unequivocal.

    “We are going to push for this and fight for it.”

    Mr Newman was vocal in his promises, but reluctant to provide any financial backing to get construction on the bypass rolling.

    “It has to be a joint effort,” he said.

    “I’m not making any commitment on dollars today.”]

  18. Whoopsie:

    [quote]CAMPBELL Newman has been caught out wrongly claiming he had not met Clive Palmer over rail projects in Central Queensland, sparking questions about his dealings with the billionaire LNP backer.[/quote]

    [quote]Mr Newman returned fire, saying he had “never, ever” spoken to Mr Palmer about his projects, but had merely outlined LNP policy for the Galilee Basin area to him during a function last year.

    “I haven’t had a briefing from him or his people about his railway line or his mine or anything,” Mr Newman said.

    “I don’t know what he’s even proposing now and I’ve been quite determined to stay away from the matter for reasons like the way that Andrew Fraser is seeking to link me with him now.”[/quote]

    [quote]But hours later the LNP leader insisted he had misunderstood media questioning after he was confronted with an article from last May in which he told reporters he had discussed rail solutions with Mr Palmer.[/quote]


    [Clive Palmer extends war of words to Murdoch press
    Daniel Hurst
    February 1, 2012 – 3:20PM

    Mining magnate Clive Palmer has used an extraordinary media conference to extend his war on the Queensland government and QR National to the flood inquiry and the Murdoch press.

    Mr Palmer fronted the media to talk about his company’s plans to launch an $8 billion lawsuit against QR National, but also used the occasion to target numerous political and media figures and to accuse the $15 billion flood inquiry of turning a blind eye to crucial evidence involving his company.

    Mr Palmer questioned how a complaint letter from one of his companies to the independent Co-ordinator General about the Galilee Basin made its way into Treasurer Andrew Fraser’s hands, saying it was then leaked to The Courier-Mail and The Australian, which ran stories yesterday morning.]
    more in the article

  20. This Galaxy polling is a set of last week’s entrails being picked over by the Tory Cheersquad at Newscorp and really is too silly for words. Bring out a new poll that adds something to what we already know would be the smart thing to do.

  21. If Galaxy and the Tory cheersquads think it is a great idea to ask people who don’t even vote in Queensland what they think of the Premier, why did they not go to Outer Western Mongolia or North Eastern Greenland to do their Mickey Mouse Polling. Where is their polling in seats like Mount Isa, Barron River, Mulgrave or Greenslopes that might tell us how the Queensland election is actually shaping up?

  22. Crikey has been invaded by aliens. My posts disappear and I get silly error messages instead “you are posting too quick slow down”. Bizzare.

  23. If the Candidate for Ashgrove ever stops backpeddalling long enough to actually join a debate anywhere in Queensland perhaps he will enlighten us as to how the LNP will fund his $5 Billion worth of unfunded promises with the prospect of more to come.

    [IT’S a mega wish list detailing 35 infrastructure projects totalling more than $1 billion for Mackay – and council has delivered it in the lead-up to the State election.

    Major projects on the wish list include a $240 million Mackay Ring Road, a $150 million upgrade of the Mackay City Centre and a $225 million overhaul of Paget’s road network.

    Council will use the Priorities for Infrastructure list as an election tool and has already started pressing political parties for funding ahead of the March 24 State poll.

    The Mackay region contributed $18 billion to Queensland’s economy last year – and council wants a more sizeable return from the State to help provide infrastructure and services for the region’s growing population.

    Environmental development portfolio councillor Dave Perkins said the document would be useful when trying to get funds from both State and Federal coffers.]

  24. A funny thing has happened to the LNP on the way to the Queensland election, the Candidate for Ashgrove has cut and run again and the performance poet professor has stepped up to vie for top dog with the Candidate’s Father in Law.

  25. With friends like this goose, Labor doesn’t need enemies.

    [AN ILL-fated entry into the Queensland election campaign has cost a federal Labor MP about $2000.

    The federal Member for Moreton, Graham Perrett, recently sought to use his taxpayer-funded printing allowance to spruik local state Labor candidates.

    He issued a letter to residents on Brisbane’s southside, headed: “Meet your local Labor candidates this weekend”, touting them as “quality, community-minded people”.

    However, after being questioned whether the letter met guidelines, he admitted it did not and said he would fund it himself.

    “I thought I’d kill two birds with one stone but as it turns out I have scored an own goal,” he said.

    The federal Department of Finance rules state the entitlement “must not be used for party business”.]

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