Newspoll published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns on December 29 (full tables from GhostWhoVotes), aggregating all its polling from October to December to produce credible sub-samples by state, gender and age. This period neatly coincided with Labor’s mild late-year recovery, with the overall two-party lead recorded for the Coalition at 55-45 compared with 57-43 for July-September. The shifts proved fairly consistent across all states, such that the relativities are much as they have been since the election: Labor holding up relatively well in Victoria and South Australia (two-party preferred in both now 50-50), hardest hit in New South Wales (6.5 per cent lower on two-party than at the election), still in dire straits in Queensland (41 per cent two-party against an election result of 44.9 per cent) and not appreciably weakened from a disastrous election performance in Western Australia (43 per cent against 43.6 per cent).
The weakening in support recorded for the Coalition was, to a statistically significant extent, greater among women than men. The current gender gap on the Labor primary vote is 6 per cent – equal to the April-June quarter and the final poll before the 2010 election, but otherwise without precedent since Newspoll began publishing quarterly breakdowns in 1996. Of borderline statistical significance is the distinction between the capital cities and non-capitals: the Coalition’s lead is only down from 54-46 to 53-47 in the capitals, but from 61-39 to 57-43 elsewhere.
Newspoll also offered us an abundance of state polling during my fortnight off, which you can read about in the posts below.
And a big Happy NY to you too Victoria.
BK
I got to watch yesterday’s clip on Romney/Bain/BCG. Tax avoidance is pretty much par for the course for the PE industry – use of tax-transparent LLPs, in offshore tax jurisdictions, with high leverage = low tax. (It always shocks me how paying tax seems to be a bit optional in America: another example is Tim Geitner’s issues on his confirmation hearings). The running down of businesses, again alas par for the course – though a lot of this does rely on, depending on your preference, (a) asymmetrical information on the true condition of the business when the PE firm looks to sell compared to the buyer, or (b) stupid institutional investors, or (c) deceptive sales techniques.
The commentary on asset stripping/bankruptcy to avoid liabilities (pension funds was mentioned) strikes me as downright illegal; I doubt that Australian directors would be able to get away with that.
The BCG 4 quadrants reminded me of a droll pisstake business analysis of the fictional Corleone Family mob’ activities:
Bushfire Bill @ 1666
Pretty much nailed it. Know why? Because I’m there…
Hi Laocoon
Yes, Romney’s less than philanthropic corporate past will surely come back to bite him during the campaign.
And now it’s off to the fang doctor.
7.30 report on SA Liberal wanting the MDB plan. They are at odds with Barnaby and his mates
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7awzRqcTRMA&feature=youtube_gdata_player
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/bligh-rules-out-calling-poll-next-week/story-e6frfku0-1226242577623
victoria
Glad you found that link, victoria. I couldn’t find it reported in newspapers. It implies a nice little split in Lib/Nat coalition, and bears out the comment that Abbott is siding with the Nats.
lizzie
Precisely. The coalition have more cracks than Labor imo, but to date they have been papered well. Whilst they were sure of gaining power in the short term, they held it together. Now that this option appears unlikely, what is going to happen to the coalition?
lizzie
One thing to consider, SA Libs are not in a coalition with the Nats
I am not really in a position to judge the impact of climate change versus other factors (such as just more people), but this tends to indicate that there is a cost to “doing nothing” on climate change:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120112/pdf/423qr6mm48vj2n.pdf
QBE’s share price has collapsed, down 22% on the news of the profit downgrade of 40-50%. That 22% is about $3bn in equity value
Laocoon
Doing nothing about climate change, apart from being an environmental disaster, will be an economic one as well
victoria
That’s at State level, I suppose?
It’s still a nice little problem for Barnaby Abbott & Co.
Someone this morning on commercial TV was quoting Dorothy McKellar again. Seems to be the “defensive McKellar position” against AGW belief.
lizzie
Yes at state level. Although as shown on the report, the Federal Lib senators and MPs want the Plan to be implemented. They are at odds with The federal Nationals
Victoria…my favourite on the economic cost is: what would it cost to move the Gold Coast?
Laocoon
Yes indeed.
Speaking of insurance costs. Here in Melbourne, the xmas hail damage has been very costly for the insurance industry. My oh had to get our vehicle assessed at a centre specifically set up by those who specialise in hail damage. In one part of the centre, there were countless prestige vehicles ie Mercedes, BMWs etc. Assessor advised my oh that those vehicles were being investigated for fraud. Damage has been deliberately inflicted on those vehicles to mimick hail damage, but forensically it has been done by hitting golf balls etc. These are vehicles that were insured on agreed value. Ie vehicles that have a market value of 60,000 but insured for 90,000.
oops forensically it has been established to have been done by golf balls. Apparently, the indentation of the golf balls show up.
More on the Private Equity/Romney situation from Ian Verrender in Fairfax media…
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/theyre-back-but-not-quite-with-a-vengeance-20120111-1pvdg.html#ixzz1jCxHLB6d
victoria,
I used to work the data to pick up insurance fraud. Working with the assessors, they told me the typical method is to put a golf ball in a sock and repeatedly hit the car. A well known trick that is always checked on all cars.
Victoria
I had a splendid experience at a comparable centre set up after the big hailstorm in Sydney in the late 90s…the inspector gave me a choice, write it off or repair it. I chose the former (I was keen to get rid of it anyway), they organised a taxi for me, I went on my way, and cheque arrived a few days later!
SK
Apparently this is what these people did. Red flags for assessors are vehicles insured on agreed value. Apparently the owners of these vehicles will be asked to collect their cars, insurance revoked and blacklisted on the insurance registry.
Speaking of economics, the SA and Federal governments decisions to cave in to the car industry yet again has drawn amazingly little press criticism. Here a former Mitsubishi Australia boss thinks it is a great idea:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-12/car-boss-says-holden-better-off/3769306
The government’s media spin has been very good on this one, pretending this is a long term solution ( 😀 ) and good value for taxpayers. Here is Patrick Conlon:
Well, call me a scorched earth economist! We are not talking about protecting the whole manufacturing industry, or even the whole car industry. We are only talking about local car manufacture. Less than 10,000 jobs, or about 2 weeks worth of jobs growth. Without it, people would still buy, sell and maintain cars in Australia.
http://www.cis.org.au/images/stories/policy-magazine/2011-spring/27-3-11-gene-tunny.pdf
Every car industry assistance package is said to be temporary, including those by the Fraser, Hawke, Keating, Howard and Rudd governments. Howard’s deal was going to run out in 2015. But every following government caves in and tells the same lie as they extend the deal. This time Kim Carr, Julia Gillard and Jay Weatherall are repeating a new version of the old lie.
In the long term the Oz car makers are doomed anyway. Ironically, the rest of Australian manufacturing (for agriculture and mining) is going OK now, and the workers would get better paid jobs in other factories. The real jobs being protected are of a few marginal seat MPs, their advisors, and a legion of industry policy officers at State and Federal level. I’ll believe they have a long term plan for anything when they explain howthe former Mitsubishi plants will actually be cleaned up, rather than adding to Adelaide’s world class colection of ugly, derelict buildings.
(The article I quoted is from the CIS, which I normally avoid. But their conclusions are based on Productivity Commission data.)
laocoon
They are doing this at the moment as well. If the cost of repair is greater than the market value of the car, you leave your car at the centre, get a taxi home, and wait for a cheque in the mail.
Socrates
Perhaps abetted by the federal opposition who do not appear to have a policy position on this (surprise, surprise).
laocoon
That is what the owners of the prestige cars were hoping for. If these type of vehicles are under two years old, and damage substantial, usually the insurance policy allows replacement cost. If the current market value of these vehicles is for eg 60,000, but the agreed insured value is 90,000, the insurer would need to pay out 90,000. Therein lies the incentive for fraud.
On 1774, I should have added this cracker of an example of the principled postition of the Liberal Party (ROFL)
Or this one, from Ian Macfarlane:
As mentioned above, this “position” is front page in the AFR – scandalising the grandees of the natural business constituency of the Liberal Party. So much so that the proverbial pressure has been “ramped up” on Tony Abbott
This is the nice email I received after I emailed RN last month saying I had heard Waleed was the breakfast presenter and decided to listen again to RN, and if Waleed stayed as presenter I would continue to listen to it.
Laocoon
Yes this is a case where the choice is between bad policy and no policy. The fact that the opposition can’t blow this one to shreads in a few sentences at a press conference shows how bad at economics they are. The same issues would have been discussed in the Howard cabinet when they formed their $6 billion plan for Aussie cars, but Abbott must have been asleep that day. Still, when it comes to economic reform, Gillard too has shown here she is no Paul Keating, carbon tax aside.
It still annoys me. There are any number of more viable industries we could establish with a fraction of what we waste propping up Aussie cars.
Hi everyone!
Happy New Year to William and everyone else here, looking forward to another year of stimulating political discussion and debate.
Hoping everyone is well.
Google “When Mitt Romney Came to Town” and watch the 30 minute movie. Released today. In a word: devestating. Not made by Democrats, buy by Newt. Will it make a difference? Probably not. Romney will still be the Candidate – and could still win in November. It makes our politics look like happy kids at a kindergarten.
Here is video al palster refers to
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10176037
Hi TLM
happy new year to you too
mari
Nice reply from Waleed
Have to agree Socrates. Unless the Australian car industry can rapidly adapt to the switch to smaller/greener vehicles then it’s hard not to suspect the government is throwing good money after bad. Consumers are voting with their wallets and buying imported vehicles at an increasing rate. Majda 3 is now our leading selling vehicle something which would have been unthinkable a short while ago.
Victoria,
Thanks. I don’t know how to post or paste stuff onto this site.
al palster
That is about the only thing I know how to do when it comes to computers! 🙂
Gorgeous Dunny @ 1741
Thanks GD. Now if only everyone could be so respectful of others with whom they hold a different opinion!
Yes there are all types of ALP loyalists with varying shades of opinion on leaders past and present.
And a measure of doubt or scepticism about particular individuals or some of their actions does not equate to disloyalty to the overall cause.
This is the biggest issue for Australian car makers.
http://www.cherymotors.com.au/
Global Warming and the Insurance Industry
__________________________________
Prof Lovelock,from Oxford Uni. in his noted book”Gaia’s Revenge” dealing with Global Warming and it’s effects.lists the insurance industry as one of the first major industries to fall victim to climate change
For reasons which are obvious ,he believes that the growing list of disasters notably storms and flooding will lead the industry to limit and finally exit from insuring property from storm and flood damage,so that while they will still provide other forms of insurance,such as cover against burglary and theft ,etc…they will exit from any sort of climate based damage claims…so those who sufer damage to property,as did one of my family, will be on their own in the aftermath of damage like that seen in Melb. on Xmas day in the hailstorms and floods
The problems of Q’Land insurance is a foretaste of this problem….as shown by a huge fall in their share value.and a warning to us all…and of the prospect if an insurance-less world !
DavidWH
In fact only fleet sales to government and corporations have propped up Falcon and Commodore sales for some years. Neither has been the highest selling car to private buyers since before the GFC. But yes, our local industry plan put all the eggs in one basket (large cars) and, sure enough, it was the wrong basket.
Ruawake
I’d partly agree, but that is future. I think the biggest current issue is the high Australian dollar. It is here to stay. Transport costs for imports really aren’t that high – under $2000 per car. With the mining boom fuelling a higher Aussie dollar, and that being likely to continue indefinitely (Treasury Sec Parkinson’s latest advice) we have no chance competing with imports from Japan, Korea or Germany, never mind China.
Plus the industry is getting more globalised, and they are talking about comon platforms. So local niche makers are dinosaurs, even with a low dollar.
Our current policy costs us a lot, because there is a flow on cost to the whole industry. Importers price their cars more expensively in Australia to match prices of the local cars. A Prius costs $23000 to $28,000 in the USA, yet starts at $34,000 in Australia. The US dollar is less than or equal to the Australian dollar….
Further to Laoccon at 1768.
This may be a point of semantics, but the SMH article article is not correct. It stated that “Australia led the attack on this rort two years ago after the US-based TPG sold Myer to the public via a sharemarket listing. The American firm paid no Australian tax on its $1.3 billion windfall, which was allowed under international tax treaties signed by Australia. ”
In fact, the Howard Government amended Australian CGT rules with effect from 2006, to pretty much exempt ALL non-residents from tax on capital gains realised on disposal of Australian assets, except for real estate (or shares in land rich companies). Australia’s tax treaties did not generally provide for capital gains tax exemptions for non-residents, and the original 1985 CGT legislation quite specifically sought to tax non-residents on capital gains eg, from the disposal of shares in Australian companies.
The exemption TPG took advantage of had nothing to do with tax treaties – it was a gift from Howard!
The ATO, however, sought to argue that the profit realised by TPG from the Myer float was NOT a capital gain, but rather ordinary income (ie, on the quite reasonable basis that PE houses make investments with the intention of re-selling at a quick profit, which under Australian tax law would be treated as income, not a capital gain) but by the time the ATO acted, it was too late – the money had already left the country.
Nevertheless, the ATO’s position was by no means a slam dunk and has not really been tested – TPG would still have had a strong case to argue that they, like many PE houses, hold assets for relatively long periods, and the Myer float was merely realisation of a capital investment. The revenue v capital distinction for asset sales was always very much a grey area under Australian tax law in the pre-CGT days, so it was by no means certain that the ATO would have won if the matter had ever gone to court.
What interests me more is the quite deliberate watering down of Australia’s CGT rules over the term of the Howard Government – most notably, the automatic 50% CGT discount in lieu of cost base indexation.
Like the Holden er Daiwoo Cruze?
Victoria @ 1761;
Precisely. And Lord Stern nailed that very issue in his report on climate change in 2006 which was pooh-poohed by JWH when PM before a Damescence conversion in time for the 2007 election only for the Noalition, driven by deniers like Minchin, to do a 180 degree about face under the ‘truckwit’.
In summary Stern said;
It would already be very difficult and costly to aim to stabilise at 450ppm CO2e. If we delay, the opportunity to stabilise at 500-550ppm CO2e may slip away.'
The transition to a low-carbon economy will bring challenges for competitiveness but also opportunities for growth. Policies to support the development of a range of low-carbon and high-efficiency technologies are required urgently.
Establishing a carbon price, through tax, trading or regulation, is an essential foundation for climate change policy. Creating a broadly similar carbon price signal around the world, and using carbon finance to accelerate action in developing countries, are urgent priorities for international cooperation.
Adaptation policy is crucial for dealing with the unavoidable impacts of climate change, but it has been under-emphasised in many countries.
An effective response to climate change will depend on creating the conditions for international collective action.
There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change if strong collective action starts now.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stern_Review#Summary_of_the_Review.27s_main_conclusions
And here we are – still arguing. As Socrates or Laocon pointed out in a later post the insurance industry will just walk away from insuring ‘natural disaster/act of Dog’ events if a do nothing policy is the global result.
Listen to the rightards howl with rage then. 2GB land will go into conspiracy driven meltdown.
One of mine, actually, from The Political Sword.
Yes I liked it, starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel with the Grandsons, 2 leave tomorrow and one is staying until next Thursday, been to the beach this morning, then played pool and out to the Pizza place tonight. One by himself he is 14 will be easy, no fights between him and his younger brothers
http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/01/12/rundle12-never-has-a-victor-romney-looked-so-utterly-defeated/
Since I am likely to miss Alan Kohler’s efforts this evening, I have had to find a new target of innumerate, sensationalist financial “journalism”, today from that sad, faded dowager, Sydney Morning Herald…
http://www.smh.com.au/business/credit-card-debt-swells-to-record-50-billion-20120112-1pwqe.html#ixzz1jDFg1yfZ
Ballooning! Blowing out!! Yikes. Hoo-ha, head for yonder hills. Fear. Panic. Occupy Martin Place.
But looking at the last 5 years, the average annual rate of increase was, was, was…actually, 5.6%. Ballooning? Well. I don’t think so. Maybe a bit of bubble gum.
One comparative benchmark would be economic growth over the last 5 years. Well in the 5 years to Sept 11 (latest ABS data), nominal (like credit card debt is nominal) GDP grew at…7.0%. Right. Have you seen all those stories about economic growth “ballooning” over the last 5 years? No, me neither. So credit card debt grew at less than economic growth. But I guess that does not make an interesting story at all.
The more interesting aspect was the first 5 years of the decade, when credit card debt grew at an average annual rate of 17.3%, which is a very high rate indeed, and of course we all know where that led to (GFC and all that)…but something that “ballooned” 5-10 years ago, I agree does not make a very interesting story in 2012.
Ultimate problem for these media companies – a low quality, rubbish product.
http://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/schedule.html
I see reach-tel have done another poll of Ashgrove. Onya Kate. Primary now has a 4 in front, paul would be happy.
Ooooh New Morgan
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4733/
An 0.5% increase in the LNP vote – Start the Ruddstoration .
Crap