Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research’s rolling fortnightly average continues to swing between 54-46 and 55-45, this week’s move of the pendulum being in Labor’s favour. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 35 per cent, with the Coalition down one to 47 per cent and the Greens down one to 9 per cent. Also featured are questions on the outlook for 2012 for the economy, the parties (good for Liberal, very poor for Labor and the Greens), political leaders (poor for Tony Abbott, very poor for Julia Gillard, about neutral for Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull) and respondents personally. Most interestingly, only 26 per cent expect Julia Gillard will still lead the ALP in 12 months’ time against 55 per cent who think she won’t. The respective figures for Tony Abbott are 41 per cent and 34 per cent. Thirty-two per cent expect a federal election in the coming year, against 42 per cent who don’t.

Also:

• Newspoll reports that supplementary questions in its December 2-4 poll had 14 per cent expecting their financial position to improve over the next year (up two from last year), 57 per cent expected it to stay the same (up six) and 28 per cent thought it would get worse (down seven). Coalition voters were solidly more pessimistic than Labor supporters.

• A Liberal Party preselection vote on Saturday for Craig Thomson’s central coast NSW seat of Dobell was won by Gary Whitaker, former Hornsby Shire councillor and managing director of a local educational services company. The Sydney Morning Herald’s Diary reports this as a defeat for Chris Hartcher, state government minister, Terrigal MP and local powerbroker, as his preferred candidate had been WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. Also reportedly in the field was Matthew Lusted, managing director of a Central Coast construction company.

• Michelle Grattan of The Age reports Russell Broadbent, the Liberal member for the western Gippsland seat of McMillan, is likely to pay for his ideological moderation with a preselection challenge. However, Broadbent is thought likely to prevail, as the conservative forces being marshalled against him (“local Catholic members” apparently featuring prominently) will largely be ineligible to participate in the preselection because they have not been party members for two years. Any preselection vote is likely to take place in February and involve 300 local branch members.

• Brett Worthington of the Bendigo Advertiser reports Greg Westbrook, director of legal firm Petersen Westbrook Cameron, has nominated for Labor preselection in Bendigo, to be vacated at the next election by the retirement of Steve Gibbons. Lisa Chesters, a Kyneton-based official with United Voice (formerly the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union), is also rated a possible starter.

• There is mounting talk that Lara Giddings’ tenure as Tasmanian Premier is in jeopardy just a year after she replaced David Bartlett. Matt Smith of The Mercury has reported that David O’Byrne, who entered parliament at the March 2010 election, fancies himself as the apple isle’s answer to Kristina Keneally, and has secured backing from party room colleagues Michelle O’Byrne (his sister), Scott Bacon, Graeme Sturges, Brian Wightman, Craig Farrell and Brenton Best. This leaves only Michael Polley and Doug Parkinson in Giddings’ corner, while Bryan Green and Rebecca White remain on the fence. Bruce Montgomery, a former state political reporter for The Australian, writes in Crikey that public sector unions have been angered by Giddings’ pursuit of job cuts to balance the budget, and are hopeful of a more sympathetic hearing from O’Byrne, a former state secretary of the LHMWU. Kevin Harkins of Unions Tasmania, Chris Brown of the Health and Community Services Union and Tom Lynch of the Community and Public Sector Union are identified as critics of Giddings by The Mercury. However, O’Byrne has more recently denied any plans for a challenge.

• With former SA Treasurer Kevin Foley officially resigning from parliament, a by-election in his seat of Port Adelaide has been set for February 11. There is an expectation that Mike Rann’s resignation will follow shortly so that a by-election can be held for his seat of Ramsay on the same day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,596 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. I suppose in this season of goodwill I should apologise to all weasels and bustards who may feel insulted by being associated with the name Abbott.
    Last night on QI, heard a suitably vulgar insult by Stephen Fry, which was said to be Australian, but haven’t heard the exact wording before.
    “I wouldn’t blow smoke up his arse if his kidneys were on fire.”

  2. http://stephenkoukoulas.blogspot.com/2011/12/moodys-triple-assessment-of-australia.html

    [Stephen Koukoulas
    Economics, Financial Markets, Politics

    Moody’s Triple-A Assessment of Australia
    Moody’s have just reiterated Australia’s triple-A credit rating and in doing so, have slapped down the economic drongos who keep moaning, bleating and foaming at the mouth about Australia’s temporary budget deficit, the Government’s “addition to tax” and record levels of gross debt.]

    worth a read

  4. I have a fair bit of work to do today and won’t be around much tomorrow, so I’d just like to wish everyone a happy and safe holiday. Enjoy the solstice celebration, and I hope you all get in touch with your inner pagan 😉

  5. One more thing – William thanks again for providing a well ordered home for usually civilised discussion, and bringing order when needed. I hope you have a happy break and new year, and finish your PhD soon (I completed mine this year).

  9. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/indigenous/read-it-before-you-weep-pleads-constitutional-panel/story-fn9hm1pm-1226226203160

    [Read it before you weep, pleads constitutional panel
    BY: PATRICIA KARVELAS From: The Australian December 20, 2011 12:00AM
    Increase Text Size
    Decrease Text Size
    Print

    MEMBERS of the government-appointed panel looking at changing the Constitution to acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders are furious elements of their report are already being campaigned against.

    They have begged for calm, and that the entire document be read before people rush to judgment.

    The referendum panel had an emergency telephone conference yesterday to determine its strategy to deal with opposing views after The Australian reported both ALP indigenous leader Warren Mundine and Tony Abbott’s Coalition opposed a central element of the report. It has decided to play a dead-bat until Julia Gillard receives its report, despite the growing opposition.

    Mr Mundine has declared he will campaign against proposed constitutional changes that promote the advancement of Aborigines, saying they go “a hundred steps too far”, and will lead to legal challenges.]

    More in this article yesterday. Not surprised another article today says Abbot & Mundine have agreed to work against it. Mundine has form. Also see below, links to various other articles…

    http://www.thepowerindex.com.au/guidebook/who-wants-what-in-the-stoush-over-indigenous-constitutional-recognition/20111220863

    [Who wants what in the stoush over Indigenous constitutional recognition?
    Matthew KnottTuesday, 20 December 2011]

  11. Coulson has been hung out to dry my the Murdochs. Before long he will end up financially bankrupt to match his moral bankruptcy.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/dec/21/andy-coulson-phone-hacking-legal-fees

    [Former News of the World editor Andy Coulson has lost his high court bid to force News Group Newspapers to pay his potential legal costs over the phone-hacking affair.

    Mr Justice Supperstone, handing down judgment on Wednesday, ruled that Coulson’s former employer is not liable to pay his legal bills if allegations of criminal activity are made against him.

    Coulson had asked for a declaration that NGN, which stopped payments in August, “must pay the professional costs and expenses properly incurred” by him “in defending allegations of criminal conduct” during his tenure.]

    [The judge ordered Coulson to pay NGN’s costs and refused him permission to appeal, although he can renew his application directly to the court of appeal.Coulson has consistently denied allegations of criminal wrongdoing. He was arrested and bailed on 8 July by the Metropolitan police in connection with conspiracy to unlawfully intercept communications and payments to police officers.]

    The best thing he can do is to tell the truth the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

  13. My oh just said.there is as argumentitive person on the abc
    I think we should all ring our local stations and compiain
    Is it faine

    So he is doing the aust wide is he,

  14. the :mrgreen: seems to be tweeting quite a lot lately, something up?

    his staff used to tweet only 1 a week – the link to his “weekly blog” on the Daily Telegraph site – which was invariably a straight lift out of the previous day’s speech. (as an aside, I wonder if the DT should be subject to the disclosure provisions of the Electoral Act, as they are clearly a mouthpiece of the Liberal Party)

    This is the second additional tweet this week

    [Tony Abbott @TonyAbbottMHR 2m
    Just visited some brave kids at the Sydney Children’s Hospital. They deserve a really good Christmas.

    ]

  18. Leroy:

    Thanks for those links. Mundine lobbying Abbott rather than his own party (which is in govt!) is very poor. By engaging Abbott it could very well end up that nothing eventuates rather than strengthening the something which is on offer. So few Referendums get up, and this divisive opposition would love nothing more than to make the road a difficult one for this particular referendum.

  19. [the :mrgreen: seems to be tweeting quite a lot lately, something up?]

    MT has been very busy on twitter: links to speeches and opinion pieces, a eulogy for his dog, plus he engages with others unlike other MPs who don’t respond at all.

  21. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all PB’ers and thanks for allowing me to be part of your community this year even if at times I fely like the proverbial basket at the family reunion. I have enjoyed the cut and thrust during a tough year for we who love to follow politics and current events. Have the highest regards for JV’s passion even though we seldom agree on anything. Agree with a recent comment that BB provides us with well thought out views. I hope I have got past the concerns about being a troll and look forward to 2012 which should be another interesting year. I think the Labor supporters will see a steady improvement in their position throughout 2012 but only after the LNP in QLD dispatch QLD Labor to the opposition benches.

    Thanks William for providing a forum where we can all vent our spleens.

    Have a safe holiday period everyone.

  22. confessions – I have zero confidence that any amendment will get up. Opposed referendums always fail. Its pretty much a waste of time to do it whilst the present Coalition leaders are there.

  25. The compromise can be easily achieved. Agree to both Nauru and Malaysia. Nauru has to be re-built and if handled appropriately that could take 2 years. In the meantime Malaysia is a great success – Abbott’ s ‘victory’ is very limited.

  26. I wonder if the compromised position will be to send AS to Nauru, being the transit stop for Malaysia. It is logistically stupid, but hey, nothing about this issue is logical atm

  27. Leroy:

    Agree. I’ve never had any confidence that the coalition would support constitutional reform. Their penchant for saying ‘NO!’ means opposing the referendum would be such an attractive option.

    What is Mundine thinking!

  28. Lynchpin I doubt the government can afford to cave into Abbott’s demands any more than Abbott could afford to cave into the government’s. What we have is bringmanship from both sides trying to score political points at the expense of UA’s. I don’t have any confidence their is any statesman or stateswoman in either camp capable of clawing themselves above the political basement and act with leadership and in a responsible way.

    Basically it will last another day or two and then we will all forget about the issue while we enjoy the holiday and then it will all start up again in 2012. I hope I am wrong but I doubt it.

  29. Lynchpin@2416

    Question for the day – will the Govt cave in to Abbott’s demands?

    The government should put legislation before the parliament that could enable both Malaysia and Nauru (with appropriate safeguards, of course).

    Malaysia can then be the option pursued by this government, with Nauru being pursued by some future government if they prefer.

    Then let Abbott vote it down in the parliament if he wants to do so.

  30. David,
    The Gillard Govt is trying to put in place a Regional solution to Asylum Seekers. This is the only Govt that has sought such a solution. Why do you say that there is no Leadership?

  31. This is an update of my New Years resolutions. The overall aim is to make myself a wonderful Australian person by the end of 2012. I would like to acknowledge the direct contributions of various Bludgers and the indirect contribution of my hero, Mr Abbott.

    (1) Whinge all the time, especially about being poor on $150,000 plus.
    (2) Cry,’Poor victim me!’, the firstest and the mostest coz those Government bastards are out to kick me in the guts.
    (3) Kick privileged asylum seekers arses, and the arses of every other selfish greedy wanker who is trying to get a cut off my cake.
    (4) Practise active envy of everyone else at every opportunity.
    (5) Hack away at tall poppies when they need it, which is all the time.
    (6) Ignore anything good about Australia.
    (7) Always believe what Mr Jones and Mr Hadley say, taking into account that they tend to underplay the seriousness of every single issue they raise.
    (8) Express admiration for Mr Abbott at every opportunity. He’s so cool.
    (9) Always be ready to express justifiable aggravation at every damn little thing.
    (10) Remind everyone that that the real reason Australia is so totally f*cked is that Ms Gillard is a barren, unmarried, illegitimate, lying b*tch.
    (11) Cherry pick climate facts and rant on about all the lying scientists conspiring to fool the world so that I can’t drive a SUV.
    (12) Assert aggressively, righteously and loudly, on the basis that I have an opinion, therefore I am right.
    (13) Remind people that pointy headed scientists don’t know anything more than I do.
    (14) Remind everyone that it is all about me.
    (15) Ignore any communication that is longer than three words.
    (16) Admire lycra.
    (17) Fall for cheap, stupid political stunts.
    (18) Admire the wonderful legal industry.
    (19) Only read News Ltd stuff.
    (20) Only watch Fox News and Sky News.
    (21) Put on some more fat.
    (22) Shift to a bigger house.
    (23) Piss away some more money on the pokies.
    (24) Go, ‘Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, Oi, Oi, Oi’ all the time.
    (25) Buy redundant consumables.
    (26) Chuck them away coz they are useless.
    ((27) Confuse sporting achievements for something really worth-while like Nobel prizes.
    (28) Wave the Aussie flag as substitute for having to think about foreign policy.
    (29) Get pissed paralytic in Bali.
    (30) Get pissed off at foreign aid.
    (31) Practise active fearfulness.
    (32) Always remember, if a solution is complicated some bastard is trying to dick you, but if a solution is simple and it involves sticking it to someone else, it is right.

  32. confessions

    [What is Mundine thinking!]

    Mundine has form. A former President of the ALP who is all about himself. Nothing he does should surprise.

  33. Muskiemp it’s only my personal view but I don’t consider sending possibly genuine refugees back to Malaysia as something a leader and stateman should do. But neither side should be proud of their efforts on this issue and I agree it started with the Howard government 10 years ago.

  37. Poor david
    No leadership. Now that has to be the understatement of the year,
    Julia has more leadership on all things that passed this year than I can remember pjk having and that’s a tall

    That’s a real abbott sentance
    I am not going to go in to the whys. And therefore.

  38. [Question for the day – will the Govt cave in to Abbott’s demands?]

    Abbott want Nauru to be used “immediatley” and says it will work immediately.

    The government should try it, make it absolutely plain that it’s a test case and put the matter to rest.

    Nauru would fail because it has:

    * No turnkey housing and recreation facilities,
    * No     existing refugee-orientated legal structure,
    * No ability to accommodate the hundreds of people required for administration,
    * Poor health and schooling facilities (e.g. life expectancy of 60),
    * 90% unemployment,
    * A bad record from the past (insanity, suicides etc.,)
    * No economy apart from foreign aid,
    * An unstable, corrupt government

    All it has in its favour is:

    * A single-page piece of paper that the Court thought might be a treaty,
    * Their signature on the UN Refugees Convention.

    … all aspects that figured in the Solicitor-General’s report based on his reading of the High Court judgement.

    If the government sells this as a test case, then we would know for sure. Otherwise this whole mess will drag on for months.

    Abbott has no desire for a solution to be reached, unless it involves total capitulation and humialiation from and by Gillard, personally.

  39. @Boerwar/2431,

    It always amazes me that people complain about how much money they don’t get vs what they GET.

    I wish I could earn $150k per year.

    Perhaps those ppl are in the wrong jobs.

  41. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Abbott wants the Boats to keep coming. The only issue left for him as he’s lost on NBN, Carbon & Mining Tax, BER, Health, Ciggy, IR #auspol
    4 minutes ago

  42. Sh*t, I buggered up (27) a bit and forgot 33 altogether.

    (27) Ignore Nobel Prizes for something really worth while like sporting achievements.

    (33) Smoke some more fags.

    I put (18) for shellbell coz it is Christmas.

    BTW, have a good one over Chrissie, and may next year be a pearler, especially for William, but also for all youse Bludgers and lurkers.

  43. Exactly BB, Abbott wants total humiliation of Julia Gillard. The Greens can help prevent that happening, just negotiate instead of being as pig headed as Abbott.

  44. DWH

    [Boerwar it’s a pointless exercise because it’s not in your DNA]

    I can but try. Think of my New Year resolutions as reflecting Mr Abbott’s aspirational aussies.

  45. Oh, I get it! I was a bit slow picking it up, but I think I’m there now. This isn’t about asylum seekers, this is about Gillard being on a break and Abbott grabbing the opportunity to make her look bad. He does it every time she takes a holiday. He’s strutting about at the moment saying “I’m the only one who’s serious about the issue – where’s Julia? Where is she, huh?”

    If she comes back, he gets to look like he’s making the running and she’s at his beck and call. If not, he gets to insinuate she doesn’t care about this urgent issue (which he’s been stalling on for weeks).

    And the headline in the Australian, about Labor now being open to Nauru – that’s a smart move too. Everyone’s hanging out for a solution, and the Oz has proclaimed we have one, Abbott’s, and the ALP have agreed to it. Public says “finally!”. ALP says “Hang on, we didn’t say that, we said we were open to talking about a solution.” OZ says, “ALP Backflip! Asylum seeker agreement stalled! Abbott demands talks!” Abbott says, “I’m the only one who is prepared to deal with this. Where’s Julia?”

    Then short-attention-span types like Annabel Crabb say, “Oh I’m so over this. Why must they all play politics? I’m going back to bed.” Everyone else says, “Why won’t Gillard talk to Abbott?” Bingo – Asylum Seekers is now the ALP‘s problem. Wonderful.

    The MSM will be thrilled, because now it’s not about lives at risk or workable regional solutions, it’s a Politics Meme! Yay. Now we can all talk about Gillard-as-leader, Rumblings in Caucus, Polls!

    I get it now.

  46. [The Finnigans #2348, The corruption, I guess, can be understood.

    What I don’t understand is why they can still find people to crew the boats. ]

    #2359 – that is even more easy to understand and explain.

    When you are very poor, earn $1 a day or no earning at all.

    $10K is almost like a life time earning. So they will do it even it might cost them their lives. They will be paid something upfront (probably 50%) & their families will still get the moneys,

  48. [it’s only my personal view but I don’t consider sending possibly genuine refugees back to Malaysia as something a leader and stateman should do. But neither side should be proud of their efforts on this issue and I agree it started with the Howard government 10 years ago.]

    DavidWH
    YOU, dont’t get it do you, You would have to be a IDIOT to get on a BOAT if you will be sent to Malaysia behind a 90,000 queue.
    It will stop the boats after ONE plane load have been sent there.

    Start using your brain people!.

  49. Boerwar,

    Love your list and hate it too! It would be funny if much of the Australian population didn’t think that way. Too close to reality for comfort.

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