Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research’s rolling fortnightly average continues to swing between 54-46 and 55-45, this week’s move of the pendulum being in Labor’s favour. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 35 per cent, with the Coalition down one to 47 per cent and the Greens down one to 9 per cent. Also featured are questions on the outlook for 2012 for the economy, the parties (good for Liberal, very poor for Labor and the Greens), political leaders (poor for Tony Abbott, very poor for Julia Gillard, about neutral for Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull) and respondents personally. Most interestingly, only 26 per cent expect Julia Gillard will still lead the ALP in 12 months’ time against 55 per cent who think she won’t. The respective figures for Tony Abbott are 41 per cent and 34 per cent. Thirty-two per cent expect a federal election in the coming year, against 42 per cent who don’t.

Also:

• Newspoll reports that supplementary questions in its December 2-4 poll had 14 per cent expecting their financial position to improve over the next year (up two from last year), 57 per cent expected it to stay the same (up six) and 28 per cent thought it would get worse (down seven). Coalition voters were solidly more pessimistic than Labor supporters.

• A Liberal Party preselection vote on Saturday for Craig Thomson’s central coast NSW seat of Dobell was won by Gary Whitaker, former Hornsby Shire councillor and managing director of a local educational services company. The Sydney Morning Herald’s Diary reports this as a defeat for Chris Hartcher, state government minister, Terrigal MP and local powerbroker, as his preferred candidate had been WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. Also reportedly in the field was Matthew Lusted, managing director of a Central Coast construction company.

• Michelle Grattan of The Age reports Russell Broadbent, the Liberal member for the western Gippsland seat of McMillan, is likely to pay for his ideological moderation with a preselection challenge. However, Broadbent is thought likely to prevail, as the conservative forces being marshalled against him (“local Catholic members” apparently featuring prominently) will largely be ineligible to participate in the preselection because they have not been party members for two years. Any preselection vote is likely to take place in February and involve 300 local branch members.

• Brett Worthington of the Bendigo Advertiser reports Greg Westbrook, director of legal firm Petersen Westbrook Cameron, has nominated for Labor preselection in Bendigo, to be vacated at the next election by the retirement of Steve Gibbons. Lisa Chesters, a Kyneton-based official with United Voice (formerly the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union), is also rated a possible starter.

• There is mounting talk that Lara Giddings’ tenure as Tasmanian Premier is in jeopardy just a year after she replaced David Bartlett. Matt Smith of The Mercury has reported that David O’Byrne, who entered parliament at the March 2010 election, fancies himself as the apple isle’s answer to Kristina Keneally, and has secured backing from party room colleagues Michelle O’Byrne (his sister), Scott Bacon, Graeme Sturges, Brian Wightman, Craig Farrell and Brenton Best. This leaves only Michael Polley and Doug Parkinson in Giddings’ corner, while Bryan Green and Rebecca White remain on the fence. Bruce Montgomery, a former state political reporter for The Australian, writes in Crikey that public sector unions have been angered by Giddings’ pursuit of job cuts to balance the budget, and are hopeful of a more sympathetic hearing from O’Byrne, a former state secretary of the LHMWU. Kevin Harkins of Unions Tasmania, Chris Brown of the Health and Community Services Union and Tom Lynch of the Community and Public Sector Union are identified as critics of Giddings by The Mercury. However, O’Byrne has more recently denied any plans for a challenge.

• With former SA Treasurer Kevin Foley officially resigning from parliament, a by-election in his seat of Port Adelaide has been set for February 11. There is an expectation that Mike Rann’s resignation will follow shortly so that a by-election can be held for his seat of Ramsay on the same day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,596 thoughts on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 4 of 52
1 … 3 4 5 … 52

  1. Aguirre

    Reminds me of the mediaeval days when you could pay for the religious to pray for you, while you went on with your normal profiteering.

  4. Reminds me of the mediaeval days when you could pay for the religious to pray for you, while you went on with your normal profiteering.

    Yep. I get annoyed because I think that, on the charity front, religious groups do a lot of great work. But this is a real perversion of the idea. Plus she’s on Facebook every other day asking God if he can do something for her. She sees him as a sort of lucky charm or something. I know enough about religion to know that’s not how it’s supposed to work.

  5. Could it be that Rudd was speaking in his capacity as foreign minister, who has to liase with immigration minister on such matters?

    It could. He could easily have said ‘the government’.

  6. Aguirre

    I would imagine most of the members believe they can buy their way to spirituality.

    What a cynic 😉 .The message is quite clear. God wants you to be rich. So having money is proof of your spiritual superiority and being closer to god. If you were not you would be one of those spiritually inferior poor people. Oh and the more money that you give the church the more money god will send you in return. 😆
    Blessed be the rich was the same message the Bagwhan and Ma Shiela put about as well.

  7. Jen_Bennett Jennifer Bennett
    The fact that we can’t read Hitchens on the death of Kim Jong Il but we CAN read Bob Ellis on the death of Hitchens is proof there is no god

    Nice one.

  8. Aguirre

    Plus she’s on Facebook every other day asking God if he can do something for her.

    🙁 The Internet world of religion. Google takes you straight to God.
    Oh dear. I share your concern.

  11. I’m waiting for some press gallery nong to make the obvious point that Gillard has survived OBL, Gaddafi and now KJI.

    I hope not, they would mean it in an “Is she next?” context.

  17. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    i love all these expurts coming out to say this and that are going to happen in #NorthKorea. The fact is, just like you & me, they dont know
    28 seconds ago

  22. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Oh dear, Bowen has just chopped Britney’s tutu off on #Slynews by answering “YES” to “Is Gillard the best person for PM?” #auspol
    8 seconds ago

  23. i love all these expurts coming out to say this and that are going to happen in #NorthKorea. The fact is, just like you & me, they dont know

    Actually, North Korea has a very strong power structure. The new leader will take his reins without a hitch. However, because the power structure is mostly based upon a (very hawkish) military hierarchy, you can expect NK to be rattling the saber a bit over the next couple of years, so the new leader can prove himself.

  26. If an earthquake killed hundreds of thousands of Australians in Newscastle or anywhere, or a flood or bushfire killed millions Speers would still ask: is Julia Gillard the best person for the PM’s job? It’s what they do. Its also crap.

  28. Interesting that there’s been nothing from Scott Morrison on boats. Or have I missed it?

    Morrison and Keenan have beeg gagged by Abbott. Only a writen statement from Morrison.

  32. Somehow I’ve missed the banishment of the word ‘literally’. Has anyone the time to explain why it is anathema?

    Lizzie,

    Because the word is almost always misused. It is a word that should be treated with caution.

    It means: It happened. Fact. No ifs, no buts. One cannot be slightly pregnant, for example. This word is thrown about with gay abandon these days …hurumph.

    So, have purchased el-cheapo tin foil in order to construct hat. Hope it works. Not sure of the PB protocol regarding tin-foil hats, but thought I should get some in. Just in case.

    +++

    Little Henry is as happy as Larry. Stuffed to the gills on peaches.

  36. Oh dear, Bowen has just chopped Britney’s tutu off on #Slynews by answering “YES” to “Is Gillard the best person for PM?” #auspol

    That was amazing. Britney immediately went back to the AS issue. Stopped him in his tracks.

  38. Morrison and Keenan have beeg gagged by Abbott. Only a writen statement from Morrison.

    …In words of one syllable or less so Abbott and the 2GB audience can understand.

  39. Because the word is almost always misused. It is a word that should be treated with caution.

    It means: It happened. Fact. No ifs, no buts. One cannot be slightly pregnant, for example. This word is thrown about with gay abandon these days …hurumph.

    People are literally always misusing it. 😉

    I see the issue though. You try using the proper word – “figuratively” – in its place. Very unwieldy.

  40. His small head fits neatly into my large cupped hand. Wonderful.

    Boerwar – the love is pouring out of those few words. Told ya it’s just the bestest ever.

  42. Poor Malcom

    Vodafone welcomed as new player offering fixed line NBN services
    The Minister for Broadband, Communications and Digital Economy, Senator Stephen Conroy, today congratulated Vodafone for connecting its first trial customers to the National Broadband Network (NBN) and welcomed the telco’s entry into the fixed line market in Australia.

    “It is terrific to see that a global giant like Vodafone considers the conditions are now right for it to enter the fixed line market in Australia for the first time by connecting customers to the NBN,” Senator Conroy said.

    “The NBN’s wholesale only open access network is, for the first time in Australia, creating a level playing field with the ability to attract new entrants like Vodafone.

    “Around the world, Vodafone is predominantly a mobiles-only operator. Vodafone’s entry into the fixed line market, as a potential retail service provider on the NBN, is a first for the company in Australia.

    “Contrary to claims that the NBN is anti-competitive, Vodafone’s decision to enter the fixed line services market demonstrates that structural reform is increasing retail service competition leading to a more dynamic and innovative market.

    “Attracting a new fixed line operator demonstrates the value of the NBN as an open access, wholesale only provider.

    “The decision by a predominantly mobiles-only operator such as Vodafone to offer services over the NBN reflects the complementary nature of wireless and fixed networks.”

    Date: 19 December 2011

    His fibre to the dunny policy is in tatters. 🙂

  44. FWIW, this may be of interest to those concerned about the ABC’s bias:

    ABC radio presenters Matthew Abraham and David Bevan found guilty of bias

    AUSTRALIA’S broadcasting watchdog has found ABC Adelaide presenters Matthew Abraham and David Bevan guilty of bias and using “loaded questions” and disparaging language” in an interview with former deputy premier Kevin Foley…

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/abc-radio-presenters-matthew-abraham-and-david-bevan-found-guilty-of-bias/story-e6frea83-1226225731746

    (Kevin Foley is a Labor Party politician, btw)

  46. ruawake
    Posted Monday, December 19, 2011 at 4:42 pm | Permalink

    Interesting that there’s been nothing from Scott Morrison on boats. Or have I missed it?

    Morrison and Keenan have beeg gagged by Abbott. Only a writen statement from Morrison.

    If that’s true, it’s about the first thing Abbott’s done that I approve of.

  47. ..Kim Jong Il, the second-generation North Korean dictator who defied global condemnation to build nuclear weapons while his people starved, has died,..

    Ha, the North Korean dictator was indeed a Rudd supporter which he valiantly showed with his death thereby giving FA minister the opportunity to talk on FA.

    The PB think tank are at this moment working out how Rudd managed to attain the Dictator’s death. There may be Murdoch prayer tapping afoot here, so expect it to be reported in the news with vigorous head nodding from the locals here.

    It will be suggested and thereafter referred to as fact, that Rudd prayed for the death of the NK Dictator, God acquiesced (obviously another Rudd supporter) a promptly stuck the grey besuited Dictator down into his platform shoes.

    The NK Dictator has dead thereby proving Rudd is on the verge of challenging for PM.

    THis was the more rational version than what is to follow by the echo chamber.

  49. Oh, I never liked Foley. Bit of an arrogant prick, both publicly and privately. I didn’t hear the interview, I am just reposting the story for others who are concerned about anti-Labor bias in the ABC lately.

  50. ABC radio presenters Matthew Abraham and David Bevan found guilty of bias

    When I was living in Canberra the best thing the ABC did was boot Abraham back to Adelaide. He would do well on 2GB.

Comments Page 4 of 52
1 … 3 4 5 … 52

Comments are closed.