Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research’s rolling fortnightly average continues to swing between 54-46 and 55-45, this week’s move of the pendulum being in Labor’s favour. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 35 per cent, with the Coalition down one to 47 per cent and the Greens down one to 9 per cent. Also featured are questions on the outlook for 2012 for the economy, the parties (good for Liberal, very poor for Labor and the Greens), political leaders (poor for Tony Abbott, very poor for Julia Gillard, about neutral for Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull) and respondents personally. Most interestingly, only 26 per cent expect Julia Gillard will still lead the ALP in 12 months’ time against 55 per cent who think she won’t. The respective figures for Tony Abbott are 41 per cent and 34 per cent. Thirty-two per cent expect a federal election in the coming year, against 42 per cent who don’t.

Also:

• Newspoll reports that supplementary questions in its December 2-4 poll had 14 per cent expecting their financial position to improve over the next year (up two from last year), 57 per cent expected it to stay the same (up six) and 28 per cent thought it would get worse (down seven). Coalition voters were solidly more pessimistic than Labor supporters.

• A Liberal Party preselection vote on Saturday for Craig Thomson’s central coast NSW seat of Dobell was won by Gary Whitaker, former Hornsby Shire councillor and managing director of a local educational services company. The Sydney Morning Herald’s Diary reports this as a defeat for Chris Hartcher, state government minister, Terrigal MP and local powerbroker, as his preferred candidate had been WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. Also reportedly in the field was Matthew Lusted, managing director of a Central Coast construction company.

• Michelle Grattan of The Age reports Russell Broadbent, the Liberal member for the western Gippsland seat of McMillan, is likely to pay for his ideological moderation with a preselection challenge. However, Broadbent is thought likely to prevail, as the conservative forces being marshalled against him (“local Catholic members” apparently featuring prominently) will largely be ineligible to participate in the preselection because they have not been party members for two years. Any preselection vote is likely to take place in February and involve 300 local branch members.

• Brett Worthington of the Bendigo Advertiser reports Greg Westbrook, director of legal firm Petersen Westbrook Cameron, has nominated for Labor preselection in Bendigo, to be vacated at the next election by the retirement of Steve Gibbons. Lisa Chesters, a Kyneton-based official with United Voice (formerly the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union), is also rated a possible starter.

• There is mounting talk that Lara Giddings’ tenure as Tasmanian Premier is in jeopardy just a year after she replaced David Bartlett. Matt Smith of The Mercury has reported that David O’Byrne, who entered parliament at the March 2010 election, fancies himself as the apple isle’s answer to Kristina Keneally, and has secured backing from party room colleagues Michelle O’Byrne (his sister), Scott Bacon, Graeme Sturges, Brian Wightman, Craig Farrell and Brenton Best. This leaves only Michael Polley and Doug Parkinson in Giddings’ corner, while Bryan Green and Rebecca White remain on the fence. Bruce Montgomery, a former state political reporter for The Australian, writes in Crikey that public sector unions have been angered by Giddings’ pursuit of job cuts to balance the budget, and are hopeful of a more sympathetic hearing from O’Byrne, a former state secretary of the LHMWU. Kevin Harkins of Unions Tasmania, Chris Brown of the Health and Community Services Union and Tom Lynch of the Community and Public Sector Union are identified as critics of Giddings by The Mercury. However, O’Byrne has more recently denied any plans for a challenge.

• With former SA Treasurer Kevin Foley officially resigning from parliament, a by-election in his seat of Port Adelaide has been set for February 11. There is an expectation that Mike Rann’s resignation will follow shortly so that a by-election can be held for his seat of Ramsay on the same day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,596 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. And I am not happy when they get involved in politics other than to lobby all sides equally on behalf of the poor and downtrodden, not to push dogma.

    From my experience, I don’t think they have much interest in the poor and downtrodden. Their primary message seems to be that it’s ok to be materialistic because God wants you to be successful. They like their congregation to make as much money as possible because they tithe them.

    I don’t know exactly where the money goes, but the churches are massive and seem to have a lot of gadgetry. I’d say they’re about as close to a business as a religious group can legally be. That’s just going on their public statements and anecdotal evidence. If anyone wants to set me straight, I’ll listen.

    I do know someone who’s involved in one of them, and she’s stuck with them for years and speaks very highly of them.

  3. zoomster @ 10

    When I read the news about Forestry Victoria I just wanted to cry. This is a bluddy tragedy. Baillieu seems to me like a weak effort who is letting the Nats decide everything.

  4. Kim Jong Il, the second-generation North Korean dictator who defied global condemnation to build nuclear weapons while his people starved, has died, Yonhap News reported. He was 70.

    It only seems like yesterday he was on the cover of The Economist Magazine with the unforgettable –

    “Greetings Earthlings”

  7. PTMD

    I did attend once, on invitation – not Hillsong, one of the ones in Melbourne’s outer east. It does have an evangelistic feel to it. I was a little surprised at the size of the congregation. It’d seat about as many as the theatre at the Arts Centre, and it was packed. I was so creeped out by the end of the night I’ve declined every subsequent request.

  11. Gary
    I just picked up the same from the SMH.
    Is this where SH-Y gets her “we must fly them here” story from?
    I don’t really understand how the AS expect us to “close our borders”.
    [Survivors of the boat sinking off Java that has cost as many as 200 lives say they will try again to reach Australia by sea, as they expressed their distaste and confusion about the Government’s policy which allows refugees who arrive by boat to be resettled but denies assistance to those who can’t make it.

    And, if they die trying to come by boat, they maintain it will be the Australian government’s fault.
    Amid emotional pleas for the Australian government to help them and wrenching accounts of wives, children and brothers lost at sea, two of the survivors sharply criticised the immigration policies they say encourages them to take great risks with their lives.
    “Why does Australia not close the border?,” said Esmat Adine, a 24 year old Afghan. “Everyone is coming because the border is open. Everyone is going there and they are being accepted.

    “If Australia does no want asylum seekers to come to Australia [by boat], it is a better way to close all the borders and then no-one will come.”]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/survivor-tells-why-the-boats-keep-coming-20111219-1p1td.html#ixzz1gx2JqiGc

  14. [“Why does Australia not close the border?,” said Esmat Adine, a 24 year old Afghan. “Everyone is coming because the border is open. Everyone is going there and they are being accepted.

    “If Australia does no want asylum seekers to come to Australia [by boat], it is a better way to close all the borders and then no-one will come.”]

    ]

    Interesting one for JV to comment on. This AS seems to be saying that open acceptance encourages risky sea voyages and closing the border, which I assume means returning arrivals via something like the malaysian solution will mean ” no one will come”

    Only one view but clearly a relevant one in the instance.

  15. Puff and Aguirre

    I’ve been very anti Hillsong and the other pentecostal churches since my dear old uncle was monstered by one of these temples to money. The poor old bloke was lured into attending by a ‘friend’. When it was time to leave h e was bailed up at the door and literally (sorry, sorry, sorry about that word) prevented from leaving until he swore that he had been ‘saved’ and agreed to tithe to the church. He finally escaped and never went back. The ‘friend’ had been of the impression that Unc was wealthy, once they learnt that all he had was his little villa and a pension they disappeared.

    I prefer ‘real’ churches, with decent people who take an interest in others, come around to help when you are sick, send hampers to the poor at Christmas and generally try to do as the founder of their religion asked. I often wonder what the bloke who threw the money lenders and the merchants out of the temple in Jerusalem would do if he wandered into Hillsong.

  18. Surely this event doesn’t warrant a Press Conference and lecture from our Foreign Minister. Rudd is amazing… as usual full of his own (un)importance.

  20. Mind you, that asylum seeker would fit right in here. He’s blaming his personal choices on the government, for not stopping him getting on board a boat in another country.

  22. Here is the reporting from tomorrow’s Australian:
    [ALP Leadership Tensions Spread Internationally
    by Andrew Bolt
    Kim Jong Il, the second-generation North Korean dictator who defied global condemnation to build nuclear weapons while his people starved, has died, Yonhap News reported. He was 70.
    The news came in a radio broadcast at noon local time, Yonhap reported, citing North Korea’s official media.
    Expert political commentators immediately drew parallels with the embattled Australian Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, who has also been the subject of continiuing leadership speculation since deposing her former predecessor, Kevin Rudd, little more than a year ago.
    PM Gillard who, like Kim Jong Il, was a self-proclaimed socialist, is known to have wavering support within her party. Exact numbers are difficult to ascertain from within the secretive ALP regime.
    This raises the obvious question: has the Labor leadership contagion spread to North Korea. We are endeavoring to establish when PM Gillard last met with the former North Korean leader. We will bring you details of those meetings as soon as they are invented.]

  24. Terrible
    Thunderstorm here

    Gee I told u ess,would up. I. Was polled
    Lol

    Its sons
    christmas. Evening,,
    Better take poor dog too
    thunder terifies dogs

  31. Socrates:

    I’m waiting for some press gallery nong to make the obvious point that Gillard has survived OBL, Gaddafi and now KJI.

  32. “I spoke too soon.”

    So the F.M. is supposed to hold his tongue when such a significant matter arises within his portfolio because it would be “grandstanding”….pathetic, confessions, pathetic.

  33. lizzie,

    The other day, Diogenes took the use of “literally” to mean “almost” or “nearly” to task. Quite properly.

  37. After saying he really needs to go, Rudd quite happy to stick around answering questions about the AS boat tragedy. Once again, his words are notable for what they don’t say.

    As I said before, grandstanding.

  39. thousands of asylum seekers drowned off the coast of Italy in the past 12 months fleeing North Africa. These tragedies occur elsewhere.

    confessions

    Please tell me Rudd behaved

  40. JBishop interview coming up soon about nth korea.

    Interesting that there’s been nothing from Scott Morrison on boats. Or have I missed it?

  44. victoria:

    He was asked why can’t the govt and opposition work together to resolve the impasse over boats. He was very careful to make it clear that Bowen has been working closely with his opposition counterpart. He stated this at least 3 times, in different ways, and also said he’d been in constant communication with Bowen.

    The inference is that the impasse is occurring at the leader level.

  45. Perhaps Hillsong is attractive to people who enjoy a good singsong. (no sarcasm meant)

    The feeling I got was that it provides an instant community with a common topic of interest – and that it is religion that provides the participant with lots of the good-feeling stuff and none of the responsibility. Hand over a tenth of what you earn, don’t worry about where it goes, you’re in with God and that’s all you need to know.

    Then they cherry-pick readings for heavy reinterpretation – you’d think the Bible was exclusively a new-age self-help manual the way they treat it.

    This friend of mine, she was about two years in when I had a casual chat with her about the Bible and its messages. Turns out I – ‘agnostic’ would seriously overstate my interest in Christianity – knew way more than she did about the thing, and she’d been apparently immersing herself in it for all that time.

    I would imagine most of the members believe they can buy their way to spirituality.

  46. [The inference is that the impasse is occurring at the leader level.]
    I’m not convinced of that. Quite correctly Bowen and Morrison should be the ones to doing the bulk of the leg work on this.

  47. I thik when people fill in these bits about
    leadership
    They are sheep
    cannot think for them selves

    But because I read here I know s
    B S.
    Why ask these questions though

  48. confessions

    Could it be that Rudd was speaking in his capacity as foreign minister, who has to liase with immigration minister on such matters?

  50. After saying he really needs to go, Rudd quite happy to stick around answering questions about the AS boat tragedy. Once again, his words are notable for what they don’t say.

    Oh noes, is Rudd going around not saying things again? Tut, tut.

    It’s getting to be a touch Pavlovian – Rudd appears, a dozen posters immediately appear with truncheons.

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