Essential Research’s rolling fortnightly average continues to swing between 54-46 and 55-45, this week’s move of the pendulum being in Labor’s favour. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 35 per cent, with the Coalition down one to 47 per cent and the Greens down one to 9 per cent. Also featured are questions on the outlook for 2012 for the economy, the parties (good for Liberal, very poor for Labor and the Greens), political leaders (poor for Tony Abbott, very poor for Julia Gillard, about neutral for Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull) and respondents personally. Most interestingly, only 26 per cent expect Julia Gillard will still lead the ALP in 12 months’ time against 55 per cent who think she won’t. The respective figures for Tony Abbott are 41 per cent and 34 per cent. Thirty-two per cent expect a federal election in the coming year, against 42 per cent who don’t.
Also:
• Newspoll reports that supplementary questions in its December 2-4 poll had 14 per cent expecting their financial position to improve over the next year (up two from last year), 57 per cent expected it to stay the same (up six) and 28 per cent thought it would get worse (down seven). Coalition voters were solidly more pessimistic than Labor supporters.
• A Liberal Party preselection vote on Saturday for Craig Thomson’s central coast NSW seat of Dobell was won by Gary Whitaker, former Hornsby Shire councillor and managing director of a local educational services company. The Sydney Morning Herald’s Diary reports this as a defeat for Chris Hartcher, state government minister, Terrigal MP and local powerbroker, as his preferred candidate had been WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. Also reportedly in the field was Matthew Lusted, managing director of a Central Coast construction company.
• Michelle Grattan of The Age reports Russell Broadbent, the Liberal member for the western Gippsland seat of McMillan, is likely to pay for his ideological moderation with a preselection challenge. However, Broadbent is thought likely to prevail, as the conservative forces being marshalled against him (“local Catholic members” apparently featuring prominently) will largely be ineligible to participate in the preselection because they have not been party members for two years. Any preselection vote is likely to take place in February and involve 300 local branch members.
• Brett Worthington of the Bendigo Advertiser reports Greg Westbrook, director of legal firm Petersen Westbrook Cameron, has nominated for Labor preselection in Bendigo, to be vacated at the next election by the retirement of Steve Gibbons. Lisa Chesters, a Kyneton-based official with United Voice (formerly the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union), is also rated a possible starter.
• There is mounting talk that Lara Giddings’ tenure as Tasmanian Premier is in jeopardy just a year after she replaced David Bartlett. Matt Smith of The Mercury has reported that David O’Byrne, who entered parliament at the March 2010 election, fancies himself as the apple isle’s answer to Kristina Keneally, and has secured backing from party room colleagues Michelle O’Byrne (his sister), Scott Bacon, Graeme Sturges, Brian Wightman, Craig Farrell and Brenton Best. This leaves only Michael Polley and Doug Parkinson in Giddings’ corner, while Bryan Green and Rebecca White remain on the fence. Bruce Montgomery, a former state political reporter for The Australian, writes in Crikey that public sector unions have been angered by Giddings’ pursuit of job cuts to balance the budget, and are hopeful of a more sympathetic hearing from O’Byrne, a former state secretary of the LHMWU. Kevin Harkins of Unions Tasmania, Chris Brown of the Health and Community Services Union and Tom Lynch of the Community and Public Sector Union are identified as critics of Giddings by The Mercury. However, O’Byrne has more recently denied any plans for a challenge.
• With former SA Treasurer Kevin Foley officially resigning from parliament, a by-election in his seat of Port Adelaide has been set for February 11. There is an expectation that Mike Rann’s resignation will follow shortly so that a by-election can be held for his seat of Ramsay on the same day.
Morrison and Keenan have been gagged by Abbott to stop them saying anything that might be seen as support for the Malaysian solution.
For those suggesting that parliament be recalled to revisit the legislation – grow a brain.
The senate is the problem – the Greens won’t pass it and neither will the Coalition. A Coalition flip-flop to allow asylum seekers to be shipped back top Malaysia would be seen as weakness on Abbott’s part by the redneck bigots hetargets. He won’t allow that. Bob Brown won’t allow his mob to back down either, he’s more interested in flexing his muscles and braying about the control he now has. Both lots are without conscience and without any decency. I’m not a particular fan of the Malaysian solution but for a few weeks the threat of being sent back there did deter asylum seekers. The comments from AS today about borders and whatever reinforce my view that this solution did work. Mix it with some better regional processing and we might eventually get a humane system that works – except the pollies won’t allow that either for agenda reasons.
TLBD
Bingo. Mr Rudd was being soooo obvious. Of course Mr Rudd is going to publicy support one of his six reb mates in Cabinet. And of course he is going to air brush Ms Gillard out of his answers. And of course Mr Rudd is not going to take a few hits for the side by launching a scathing attack at Mr Morrison and Mr Abbott. After all, he and Mr Abbott have a common purpose.
But the really, really weird thing about Mr Rudd’s press conference was how he kept coming back to what a wonderful job Mr Bowen was doing because he was having lots of discussions with Mr Morrison.
I’m not sure but I would guess that here on PB Mr Morrison would only be second on the Opposition hate list to Mr Abbott.
BW
Give it a rest PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The tentacles of the right wing faceless ALP powerbrokers stretches to Korea. ( insert sarcasm)
Big hole. Long drop.
Hook. Line. Sinker
daretotread
In Boerwar land, Bowen saying that Gillard is the best person to be PM is code for a takeover next week. 😆
Even then, the ABC won’t admit there was any fault.
BW is on the money, as per usual.
Rudd is a Diplomat – he knows how to spin things his way.
Be afraid, VERY afraid.
No, absolutely nothing to be gained. Won’t get through, everyone knows it won’t. Numbers still very tight but LNP is still saying no. Furthermore, Abbott called for that a while ago when Slipper defected saying govt should test numbers or something, he really wants an actual real bill to fail in the HOR. Govt won’t fall for that. The bill won’t be be put forward unless it assured of support. Like any bill really.
Exactly. Every complaint sent to them about bias, they are in the right and everybody else is wrong. It’s a farce.
Frank
What of.
A good communicator who knows how to spin in diplomatic language. Hmm!!! bout as scary as a lettuce leaf
Which is why I’ve stopped sending anything to them – a waste of bytes and my time
Bowen isn’t Rudd’s man, regardless of whether or not Rudd was being artful with his presser. No way does he have six supporters in cabinet. He’d have about 10 at most in caucus.
You are a Ruddista.
Rudd knows how to spin.
Leroy
You mean one?
George,
I think it is still important to keep sending in the complaints.
1) It contributes to the complaints statistics they register (if indeed they keep accurate records), which, the larger it is, the more damning for them.
2) It keeps their complaints
handlingspinning department growing, which again is not a good look.Clever ABC. A good way of remembering both deaths: an interview with Hitchens about Kim.
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2010/s2906276.htm?WT.svl=news4
Where on earth are you getting that information from, Leroy? Facts, common sense? You should know by now that the only reputable source on this issue is overheated News Ltd reportage. If you’re not going to listen to baseless rumours you’re not going to turn any heads around here.
Victoria – about 10 who would think of it, a few in QLD who think Rudd could save them, and maybe a few scattered around elsewhere (remember the two “numbers men” named by Richo, who turned out to be having a whinge in the pub and got stitched up?). In an actual vote under the glare of the rest of Caucus, it would shrink to one though.
Two days to announce the death of Kim Jong-il
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/kim-jong-il-dead-20111219-1p1sk.html#ixzz1gxYJfZ4X
I suggested to finns that he tweet James Massola about another:
Stephen Conroy is said to be unhappy about Gillard banning him from singing the Collingwood song in public.
Settle down….just a thought. The senate is not the problem. Abbott is on this issue. I was simply pondering whether it could put the blow torch onto him rather than the Govt copping all the stick for the deaths.
I will now slink away with tail between legs.
Thought4rceThink Big
☑ Kim Jong Il ☑ Gaddafi ☑ Osama Bin Laden ☑ Saddam Hussein ☐ Murdoch #TyrantDeathWatch
A norty??? tweet from Think Big very clever!
If I may chime in, is too many people assume “problem with Gillard” equals support of Rudd and believe that somebody who has little faith in Gillard nowadays is running to support Rudd. This of course is a completely fallacious argument. There are plenty of people who have their doubts/dislike of Gillard but do not want Rudd back. Those people differ on their views of what should be done. Some want another viable candidate to arise before switching allegiances, whereas others feel that, for better or worse, it would be suicidal to change leaders again so soon and that they are gonna have to just play the cards they’ve been dealt. Rudd doesn’t automatically earn leadership from dissatisfaction with Gillard. In fact, if the last year has demonstrated anything, that’s the last thing the ALP wants, leadership-wise.
Cuppa @217, fair points. It just gets so annoying when you get the same email back with “we’re not at fault”, regardless of the points raised
rua
In fact, I admired Mr Bowen’s response. It would not be reasonable to expect every single cabinet minister to admire Ms Gillard without reservation. It would be unreasonable to expect every cabinet minister to prefer Ms Gillard as leader.
But what we should be able to expect is Mr Bowen’s public response which was unequivocal. Well done Mr Bowen.
Leroy
I do not want to start the Rudd wars but it is silly to go into denial. As I explained the other day if it came to a vote just now you would probably have:
Gillard/Rudd a 50/45 with 10 unknown
Gillard/Shorten it would be 50/40 with 15 uncertain
Gillard/ Combet it would be 60/45
Nothing magical or weird just factional numbers. It assumes there are 45 left and 55 right. The main change in recent days seems to be from the media reports that the former Ferguson/Carr left have left Gillard and switched to Rudd. Some of the right are disgruntled and may also shift. The differences are that a few lefties may stick with Gillard off setting the right that may shift. The 10 will be marginal seaters and Qlders.
Gillard versus shorten would break down factional lines (Right Shorten and left Gillard) except that there would be some wiser heads fearing the look of instability if Shorten won
If the battle were between Combet and Gillard the left would back Combet and the right Gillard (yes I know it is not consistent with the former line but that is politics). Very few of the right and undecideds would drift to Combet.
Leroy,
Keating got it right the other day.
The test of Gillard’s leadership will be whether she can get Labor from 30 to around 40 on the primaries. She’s had her year of implementing legislation. There are a few loose ends with AS legislation, getting the Mining Tax through the Senate and bedding down the Carbon Price after July. Despite the negative reviews she now has her best team members in the spots she wants them. So there can’t be any further excuses on that aspect.
So, next year it is up to Gillard to dominate the political agenda and establish dominance over Abbott. If she does the polls will follow.
The Rudd challenge or whoever wants to put their hand up is only there till the polls improve. If they don’t she’ll be replaced. I would suggest she has until the end of next year to deliver.
Slink ye not Lynchpin! It’s good to kick around ideas.
And here is some good news for us all.
Ms Hanson-Young says, ‘I am not interested in being dragged into the nastiness and the politicking.’
A change of tact? Wow… 😉
Bowerwar,
Well, bully for her.
DTT, you have a greatly exaggerated view of the tightness of the factional straitjacket.
BTW, the I thought that half of Mr Rudd’s presser, the North Korean part, was excellent stuff.
BW
From memory Gillard gave an unequivocal comment that she had as much change of playing for her footy team as of challenging Rudd. Unequivocal denials are useless rubbish. Politicians should avoid them.
GD
Just read your post @ 66 re the Latham Diaries thanks for that. He as you would know was part of the right but they couldn’t control him.
It pays to remember that he was seriously ill and hospitalised after his election as Party Leader and was floundering a bit during the 2004 campaign.
Yes he lost but so have many others. His praise of Keating is well warranted and like Latham I love Keating too. You only get a few real characters in the Political game and they are two of them.
Re the Right:
That is exactly what it is and they treat it like a birthright.
CM @ 225
Good post, IMHO.
Ferchrissake! Give ’em a break!
They had to make sure that Kim Jong-il was really Kim-Jong-Dead.
External affairs is kinda his portfolio… and his expertise.
Yes, George, that’s my experience, too. But don’t give up. Maintain the fight.
As that old codger in ‘Dad’s Army’ said: “They don’t like it up ’em …”
Of course she just wants to snipe from the rooftops.
Hi William
Please enlighten me. – seriously if there are real divisions of which you are aware.
I am assuming that there are 10 or so drifters in each camp but that they tend to balance one another – Works every time. Count only those who faithfully promise support. Some are lying but these are off set by the ones who lie to the other side or unexpectedly offer support.
Within the factions? I have absolutely no idea where to begin.
I heard on ABC News Radio this afternoon that the rescued asylum seekers were criticising the Australian government for callously inflating the number of survivors.
They seem to be suffering from Assange Syndrome, a rare but debilitating disease where the teeth reflexively bite the hand they hoped would be feeding them.
I wouldn’t be surprised to hear that SHY is calling for their immediate “repatriation” to Australia. After all, they’re our responsibility.
Perhaps a refund to the people smugglers for the lost boat might be in order as well?
latikambourkeLatika Bourke by GreenJ
Love this backdrop for Bill Shorten: http://twitpic.com/7vas2b
1 hour ago
DTT – no denial, I stand by what I said about Rudd supporters.
Carey – its true that many know a change would be fatal in and of itself, no one whose name is thrown around actually wants the job this term for that reason, except (maybe) Rudd, and they don’t want him as leader, in fact he’s more disliked than ever.
GG – I agree that at the end of 2012 they would look at the situation again, but if things were still bad that person would be being drafted at little notice (same as Gillard was) but this time to take a fall.
We have had “Great Leader” and “Dear Leader”. Can we go with “Very Expensive Leader” for the next one?
William
Yes of course but if i am not mistaken it is NOT a secret ballot (not if I know the ALP factions). So in a vote faction members will tend to do as they are told, unless they are very disgruntled. Helps if you have to hand your ballot to your factional whip.
Horsey’s in trouble 🙂