Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research poll has Labor recovering the point they lost last week, with the Coalition lead on two-party preferred down from 55-45 to 54-46. However, the primary vote figures suggest there is little in the change: the major parties are steady on 34 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition (although a one-point drop for the Liberals disappears from the Coalition total after rounding), with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. Other questions find mounting opposition to the contention that the budget should return to surplus at all costs. Seventy-one per cent declared themselves opposed if doing so meant “cutting services and raising taxes”, with only 13 per cent supportive. Fifty-eight per cent said there was no need for the budget to return to surplus so quickly compared with 38 per cent in April, but if the government remains determined, the number who believe it should be paid for by removing tax breaks for high income earners (59 per cent) and increasing taxes for corporations (72 per cent) is up eight and nine points respectively. Only 35 per cent nominated cuts to “middle-class welfare”.

Further evidence of voters’ curiously social democratic bent was furnished by a question in which respondents were asked to indicated whether various parties had benefited from the mining boom: 68 per cent said yes for mining company executives, 48 per cent for shareholders and 42 per cent for foreign companies, against 12 per cent for regional communities and 11 per cent for “all Australians”. There was also an interesting question on the leaders’ performances during Barack Obama’s visit, in light of suggestions that Julia Gillard had been too effusive and Tony Abbott had politicised the occasion. The results suggest much more support for the latter contention than the former: Gillard’s performance was rated good by 38 per cent and poor by 23 per cent, compared with 18 per cent and 30 per cent for Abbott.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,054 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  3. Aung San Suu Kyi was under house detention for 5 years, but she looks just as beautiful and youthful as before.

    Hillary has been the SOS for 3 years and carrying Obama, she is looking every bit of 80s.

    Judge yourself

  5. I dont dis believe about the eletion date but I do agree with rudd
    I doubt it will be early I read some where we do not have winter elections, very often
    And why should nt she not wait

  6. [#Harto cheered out of the building by 400 journos. Lots in tears. Extraordinary tribute to much loved CEO pic.twitter.com/a3ZKbKoc
    4 hours ago ]

    How many would have turned up if they hadn’t been reminded by email to be there. Email was in Crikey today. 400 vying for promotions!!

    Orf to bed. Night all – interesting day tomorrow with SSM debate at conference.

  7. Leroy
    Posted Friday, December 2, 2011 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

    Touching, isn’t it?

    mirandadevine Miranda Devine
    #Harto cheered out of the building by 400 journos. Lots in tears. Extraordinary tribute to much loved CEO pic.twitter.com/a3ZKbKoc
    4 hours ago

    http://twitter.com/#!/mirandadevine/status/142480737675911168/photo/1

    Propaganda at its peak.

    The mind boggles how the OO would have reported it if any of their many enemies occupied the same sort of scene.

    Shock horror!

  9. Ru, you turned in to rudd

    Stupid I pad it actually gets a memory of most used words, starting with ru,

    And applies them, ggez now I am in trouble
    Think I will. Go

  11. Regarding Costing-gate, like most of these “-gates”, it is often the coverup which does more damage than the event itself. Now the fact that the two Howarths accountants were fined $5,000 each for, in effect, unprofessional conduct, would lead most to hope it went away.

    But not Andrew Robb. He apparently wants to use the debacle to jettison everything he has been saying up till now.

    [Mr Robb said the fining of the accountants was not an embarrassment to the coalition.

    “They did a very good job. They did as good a job as Treasury, and they did as good a job anyone could have done in the country ” Mr Robb told Sky News.

    He said the opposition’s figures were correct, with 295 of its 305 election policies having been given a tick by Treasury, while the others were disputed over assumptions and were highly politicised.

    Mr Robb said the $70 billion figure that has been bandied about as what the opposition would need to find to balance its books if it wins office is a meaningless issue when there are potentially two more budgets until voting day.

    “How can we make any determination about the state of this economy in two years time given the sort of erratic nature of this treasurer, the abysmal performance of the government and Treasury in trying to predict budget surpluses or deficits, and their abysmal performance in predicting even within six months of what might be the level of debt of this government.”]

    http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8383659

  13. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    What would you do if you meet the healthier version of yourself, asked the Ad. i would just shoot him.
    4 seconds ago

  14. Why does Annabel Crabb bother?

    [Julia Gillard (from the Left) agreed, and within about two hours, almost all of the Right – and much of the Left – were on board. What was left of the Left stuck with Mr Rudd (from the Right), due in the most part to their fears – articulated by Mr Rudd in the fateful Caucus meeting that followed – that a move to Ms Gillard (from the Left) would entail a lurch to the Right on key policy issues such as the management of asylum seekers.]

    And why does the ABC pay her real money – taxpayer money, OUR BLOODY MONEY – as a salary?

  15. dave

    [Touching, isn’t it?

    mirandadevine Miranda Devine
    #Harto cheered out of the building by 400 journos.
    Propaganda at its peak.

    The mind boggles how the OO would have reported it if any of their many enemies occupied the same sort of scene.

    Shock horror!]
    The real shame is that her dad was a bloody sheepin shagger.

  17. I know that many of us here lament the MSM bias, but it is scandalous that this costings issue- during the campaign, after the black hole exposed, and now that the Howarths people fined, has barely seen the light of day

    the PM saying no carbon tax is the scandal of the century as is Craig Thomson’s union credit card.

    A tribunal finds the accountants to have engaged in unprofessional conduct, that they should have declared it WASNT an audit, Hockey lied and said it was an audit. Abbott says today he was proud of Robb and Hockey and the savings they found.

    And the MSM completely lets them get away with it

  19. [#Harto cheered out of the building by 400 journos.]

    poroti, i didnt realise President Suharto ran #NewsCorpse from his grave

  20. [Why does Annabel Crabb bother?

    Julia Gillard (from the Left) agreed, and within about two hours, almost all of the Right – and much of the Left – were on board. What was left of the Left stuck with Mr Rudd (from the Right), due in the most part to their fears – articulated by Mr Rudd in the fateful Caucus meeting that followed – that a move to Ms Gillard (from the Left) would entail a lurch to the Right on key policy issues such as the management of asylum seekers.

    And why does the ABC pay her real money – taxpayer money, OUR BLOODY MONEY – as a salary?]

    She insults our intelligence.

    Can’t wait until her cooking show……

    *barfs*

  21. [julia Gillard (from the Left) agreed, and within about two hours, almost all of the Right – and much of the Left – were on board. What was left of the Left stuck with Mr Rudd (from the Right), due in the most part to their fears – articulated by Mr Rudd in the fateful Caucus meeting that followed – that a move to Ms Gillard (from the Left) would entail a lurch to the Right on key policy issues such as the management of asylum seekers.]

    BB/Darren, this is her left over from similar attempt when she is reporting on ABC702 Drive show. She thinks she is a comedian and very funny.

  22. CTar,

    About “axe”. You would have to go back a few pages but “axe”, “murderer” and “Abbott” appeared in a comment or three.

  25. Andrew,

    Complain. Loud and long. I have. A terse note was delivered
    to the ABC last night. I expect a reply in about three years.

    However. Apply pressure.

  28. Scringler

    [Harto cheered out of the building by 400 journos.

    Rent a crowd.]
    Orrrrr the crowd was “Thank fuack we have seen the back of that bunga bunga chap.”

  32. Some days u feel really positive about the gov, future other days not,
    May be its the mood we find ourselves in at any particular time,,

    It was suggested here recently that the media have always treated the progressive
    Like this,
    What I don’t understand is people even outside the media are very happy to use the labor
    Initives in health ect

    Let’s have a system, let’s send lib voters to a american type health system ,
    Labor voters to our present system, I can tell u the hypocrites would be belting down the door
    To get into labors, we could try the same with university
    The wealthy lib voters would be puling up
    Outside the HECS funded unit,in their droves,

  34. Mari. I went to that “most remote Pub in the Highlands” this July last. Had lunch there in a snow storm! My wife and I spent the time trying to thaw out and speculating how bleak it must be in winter.

  36. Aung San Suu Kyi is as gorgeous as ever. Very impressed with Hillary, no attempt to hide her 64 years and looking so elegant with it.

  39. my say,

    Equality is not built into our system of government. Mind you, the government has minimum control over who benefits from our economy.

  41. Eloquently written article by The Conscience Vote on gay marriage:
    http://consciencevote.wordpress.com/2011/12/02/marriage-equality-and-labors-national-conference/
    [Labor has not historically allowed conscience votes on ‘these issues’. In 2004, when the Marriage Act was changed to explicitly exclude same-sex couples, no conscience vote was either asked for or allowed. Labor simply voted its party line, which was to enshrine mean-spirited discrimination in law. If, as Howes and others have claimed, the issue of marriage is so important as to require that MPs be allowed to wrestle with their consciences, why weren’t they allowed to do so then?

    Let’s suppose someone wanted to bring in a law designed to exclude a particular religious group from the right to marry. The screams of outrage would be heard from orbit. After all, it’s an utterly nonsensical notion, right? Yes. It is – as nonsensical as the idea of excluding an entire section of the population from marriage for being same-sex attracted.]

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