Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research poll has Labor recovering the point they lost last week, with the Coalition lead on two-party preferred down from 55-45 to 54-46. However, the primary vote figures suggest there is little in the change: the major parties are steady on 34 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition (although a one-point drop for the Liberals disappears from the Coalition total after rounding), with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. Other questions find mounting opposition to the contention that the budget should return to surplus at all costs. Seventy-one per cent declared themselves opposed if doing so meant “cutting services and raising taxes”, with only 13 per cent supportive. Fifty-eight per cent said there was no need for the budget to return to surplus so quickly compared with 38 per cent in April, but if the government remains determined, the number who believe it should be paid for by removing tax breaks for high income earners (59 per cent) and increasing taxes for corporations (72 per cent) is up eight and nine points respectively. Only 35 per cent nominated cuts to “middle-class welfare”.

Further evidence of voters’ curiously social democratic bent was furnished by a question in which respondents were asked to indicated whether various parties had benefited from the mining boom: 68 per cent said yes for mining company executives, 48 per cent for shareholders and 42 per cent for foreign companies, against 12 per cent for regional communities and 11 per cent for “all Australians”. There was also an interesting question on the leaders’ performances during Barack Obama’s visit, in light of suggestions that Julia Gillard had been too effusive and Tony Abbott had politicised the occasion. The results suggest much more support for the latter contention than the former: Gillard’s performance was rated good by 38 per cent and poor by 23 per cent, compared with 18 per cent and 30 per cent for Abbott.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,054 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 79 of 82
1 … 78 79 80 … 82

  1. [Well, heres my mate Malcolm for a start. There were many examples of this, on Lateline, on QandA and I think an interview on 7:30 report as well (but could be mistaken it may have been another Lateline).]

    Looking forward to “moderate” Malcolm crossing the floor over carbon pricing… oh wait… he didn’t!

    So much for his moderation — so much for the Libs being a “free party” who can vote according to their conscience…

  3. [I thought “you won’t be needing your cheque book”? I guess that wasn’t a core confidence?]

    You can be confident about something without betting all your money on it.

    You appear to be making the same mistake as Greece, Ireland and the USA!

  4. Mod Lib, you would have much more right to criticise the Liberals for making AS the opportunistic political issue that it is.

    You Mod Lib should get real 😉

  5. Scringler
    Posted Friday, December 2, 2011 at 8:45 pm | Permalink

    Emma Alberici. Can’t stand her.

    She was very right wing when at Channel 9. Very pro business.

    Will keep an open mind but the abc have a tabloid *destiny* they are racing at all speed to achieve with the OO‘s editorial approach firmly in hand.

    They all flip the switch from facts reporting from overseas to *self righteous opinion* once they get back here. Micheal Rowland a good example.

    But lets see how she goes.

  6. CTar1

    [ModLib – 1.2 NZ bananas = 1 AU banana ? Trying to work out value.]
    Well you could try the exchange rate calcs. NZ $2.50 equals Oz Dollar $1.90 a kilo. A price not affected by cyclones.

  7. [Looking forward to “moderate” Malcolm crossing the floor over carbon pricing… oh wait… he didn’t!

    So much for his moderation — so much for the Libs being a “free party” who can vote according to their conscience…]

    He did cross the floor on CPRS (the policy he was advocating). He didnt cross the floor on the carbon tax, but even if he had supported that, he could have justified not supporting the government on the carbon tax based on the fact that they went to the election just weeks/months before with the stated promise of NOT introducing one.

  9. [She was very right wing when at Channel 9. Very pro business.

    Will keep an open mind but the abc have a tabloid *destiny* they are racing at all speed to achieve with the OO‘s editorial approach firmly in hand.

    They all flip the switch from facts reporting from overseas to *self righteous opinion* once they get back here. Micheal Rowland a good example.

    But lets see how she goes.]

    You only have to look at the last two days:

    ABC deliberately ignores the Age exposing Hockey’s lie — if the Australian or other Murdoch press had run it, then ABC would have — but of course Murdoch doesn’t care much for scrutiny of his team.

    And then they ran a Daily Telegraph style poll on whether the PM should be paid as much as the POTUS! How crass, how tabloid, how populist.

    The dumbing down of the ABC benefits only one side — and it ain’t the Government.

    If this is not bias, I don’t know what is.

    Shame on Aunty. Shame on her apologists.

  10. [You can be confident about something without betting all your money on it.

    You appear to be making the same mistake as Greece, Ireland and the USA!]

    Mod Lib, you’re the one who made the comment “I won’t be needing my cheque book”. I said nothing of the sort other than I’m prepared to call your “mouth”.

    Again, not a core confidence? It’s ok, Libs generally love to take glory but insist on others taking the risks.

    So how confident are you of your “prediction”? Or is it just wishful hoping?

  13. [3908

    Dee

    Posted Friday, December 2, 2011 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

    Where’s Frank?
    ]

    Here 🙂

    The Mark Reilly “Story” on the conference – how surprisement.

    As for Ripper – Speech aimed at WA media.

  14. Darren
    [ABC deliberately ignores the Age exposing Hockey’s lie]
    I’ve been busy with my daughter’s wedding & interstate visitors.
    Can you provide a link for the above on Hockey?
    Thanks in advance! 🙂

  23. William, RUA

    I bow to you knowledge

    30 Nov 2013 last possible date for next election.

    A date between June 2013 – August (OK September 2013) most likely. I would think that there would be too much political heat if they left it as long as November. Realistically issuing the writs anytime before August 21 would avoid too much flak so last realistic date is 26 October 2013.

  27. Mod Lib
    Posted Friday, December 2, 2011 at 8:56 pm | Permalink

    For the third time –

    Name the so called *moderate liberals*, link their speeches and policies, please.

    Well, heres my mate Malcolm for a start. There were many examples of this, on Lateline, on QandA and I think an interview on 7:30 report as well (but could be mistaken it may have been another Lateline).

    Fair enough – three requests. You cannot name more than one.

    The whole suggestion and concept of *moderate libs* is dead, buried and cremated, looong ago.

    The party of menzies has been highjacked by far right wing radicals, currently doing their best impressions of the repubs tea party mob. One word policies NO NO NO and a determination to TRY (without ANY success) to wreck the place if they cannot be in government.

    They have wrecked any concept of ever being a *moderate* liberal party.

    Thats not red hot news though.

    The libs have been frauds for years.

  28. Frank Calabrese
    [Here

    The Mark Reilly “Story” on the conference – how surprisement.

    As for Ripper – Speech aimed at WA media.]
    Here’s Frankie 🙂 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D7JB68sLGY8
    Re Ripper’s comments.What a waste of time. He is a dead duck electorally in W.A. so it was pointless. A spray immediately countered by people pointing to back in the day that W.A. was a basket case.On a serious note who do you reckon in W.A. Labor is an electoral chance ?

  29. [He did not support he bloody sold out and rolled over.No ticker. It was when I promised to not ever vote for the Labor party whilst he was leader. Meanwhile across the Tasman a real Laor leader showed how it should be done.]

    poroti – that was a really tough time for me too and I wavered about doing so much for the next election but relented. Kim was lovely but disappointing. I liked the way Crean tried to stand up to Howard on the Iraq War.

  34. Gus: Had a whale-shark of a time tonight, can’t hang around a Nemo.

    Frank: I think you are an angel, even when puffing yourself up like that.

    dave: Re Malcolm Turnbull, Eel bring the party around, don’t you worry about that.

    And in the immortal words of HHGTTG:

    “So long and thanks for all the fish”

    Good night.

  35. BH

    [poroti – that was a really tough time for me too and I wavered about doing so much for the next election but relented. Kim was lovely but disappointing. I liked the way Crean tried to stand up to Howard on the Iraq War.]
    I think we were in the same place. The strange thing for me was how Crean when he became leader immediately came down with a terminal case of the Truzzz’s. I was/am way anti Howard but back then when Crean spoke I found myself becoming comatose within 3 sentences.

  38. Mod Lib
    Posted Friday, December 2, 2011 at 9:18 pm | Permalink

    dave: Re Malcolm Turnbull, Eel bring the party around, don’t you worry about that.

    And in the immortal words of HHGTTG:

    “So long and thanks for all the fish”

    Good night.

    He still dodges answering the question/ issues.

    So be it. Its an answer in itself.

  39. [Normally, you don’t get this kind of media group think (or group amnesia) in countries other than PRC or Russia! How bad we have fallen…]

    Not even Laura Tingle gave it a run. Shame, shame, shame for one of the worst media cover ups of the year.

  40. [He still dodges answering the question/ issues.

    So be it. Its an answer in itself.]

    dave, it was a non-core statement. Hence he doesn’t have to answer the questions.

  41. Frank – I didn’t realise it was Ripper speaking today until he had finished. My impression – none. Can’t see him ousting Barnett. Change leaders.

  43. george
    Posted Friday, December 2, 2011 at 9:25 pm | Permalink

    dave, it was a non-core statement. Hence he doesn’t have to answer the questions.

    george – you’re right. They long since lost their core.

  44. 9Andrew

    Posted Friday, December 2, 2011 at 9:20 pm | Permalink

    I heard the costings story on ABC radio- Abbott defending them]
    What did the interviewer do, pursue him or just accept what he said?

  45. [BH

    Posted Friday, December 2, 2011 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

    Frank – I didn’t realise it was Ripper speaking today until he had finished. My impression – none. Can’t see him ousting Barnett. Change leaders.
    ]

    Barnett qasthe accidental leader – He will go the same way he was eklected – by voters fed up with Arrogance.

    The latest pecribed burns becoming out of control wll count.

  46. BH

    [Frank – I didn’t realise it was Ripper speaking today until he had finished. My impression – none. Can’t see him ousting Barnett. Change leaders.]
    99.9993% of W.A. voters think the same way.This left over from back in the Carmen Lawrence days just no ice in the electorate. Nice but no cigar.

  47. [joe2

    Posted Friday, December 2, 2011 at 9:24 pm | Permalink

    Normally, you don’t get this kind of media group think (or group amnesia) in countries other than PRC or Russia! How bad we have fallen…

    Not even Laura Tingle gave it a run. Shame, shame, shame for one of the worst media cover ups of the year.]

    I was a little surprised at Laura Tingle not bringing it up, maybe she is getting all the facts together, hopeful

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 79 of 82
1 … 78 79 80 … 82