This week’s Essential Research poll has Labor recovering the point they lost last week, with the Coalition lead on two-party preferred down from 55-45 to 54-46. However, the primary vote figures suggest there is little in the change: the major parties are steady on 34 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition (although a one-point drop for the Liberals disappears from the Coalition total after rounding), with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. Other questions find mounting opposition to the contention that the budget should return to surplus at all costs. Seventy-one per cent declared themselves opposed if doing so meant “cutting services and raising taxes”, with only 13 per cent supportive. Fifty-eight per cent said there was no need for the budget to return to surplus so quickly compared with 38 per cent in April, but if the government remains determined, the number who believe it should be paid for by removing tax breaks for high income earners (59 per cent) and increasing taxes for corporations (72 per cent) is up eight and nine points respectively. Only 35 per cent nominated cuts to “middle-class welfare”.
Further evidence of voters’ curiously social democratic bent was furnished by a question in which respondents were asked to indicated whether various parties had benefited from the mining boom: 68 per cent said yes for mining company executives, 48 per cent for shareholders and 42 per cent for foreign companies, against 12 per cent for regional communities and 11 per cent for “all Australians”. There was also an interesting question on the leaders’ performances during Barack Obama’s visit, in light of suggestions that Julia Gillard had been too effusive and Tony Abbott had politicised the occasion. The results suggest much more support for the latter contention than the former: Gillard’s performance was rated good by 38 per cent and poor by 23 per cent, compared with 18 per cent and 30 per cent for Abbott.
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Tony Abbott’s new 3 word slogan: STOP THE KIDS #auspol
10 minutes ago
So the Slipper speaker “affair” has had no real effect on the electorate?
[Other questions find mounting opposition to the contention that the budget should return to surplus at all costs. ]
Flexibility with regards to a surplus/deficit is the sensible option. HOwever, with the govt having insisted so adamantly that the budget will be in surplus, it would be very difficult to go back on that now.
I hesitate to interrupt the hysteria, but I assume what Abbott is talking about is the idea that some kids will have better outcomes from leaving school in year 10 and instead going to a TAFE-style environment to learn skills. Which is neither new nor as outrageous as you all seem to think. What’s the point of a kid flunking two more years of remedial maths and then going to TAFE instead of just going straight to TAFE?
The surplus problem – huge pressure on the Govt to do this just so they can say they have.
Swan has gone well until now by doing what Treasury has suggested. Penny Wong has the attention to, and the grasp of, details to minimise as much as possible the effects of ticking the ‘box’.
Some parts may not be ‘pretty’.
So the Slipper speaker change has had no real effect then?
The mob of whingers that call themselves “Australian voters” show again that they love kicking the government for “waste”, “overspending” and scaring off miners from this country, to rate them “worst managers of the economy”, rail against them when they don’t achieve a surplus etc. etc….
… but when the going looks like being a bit tough, they want them to subsidize their lifestyles, tax the miners and forget the surplus… middle class lifestyles need supporting.
The Opposition tells us that the government was wrong then, is wrong now and will be wrong in the future, ditto for the journalists who sit on their mighty journalistic steeds, setting “tests” for the government and then scoring a “Fail” next article.
The Surplus is either too much, too little, needed or not needed… whatever Labor does they get either timing or the “selling” wrong.
They’re too close to China, they’re offending China, America, Japan or whomever.
The punters want off-shore processing, they don’t want it.
Whatever the government proposes is the wrong thing at the wrong time, for the wrong reasons.
The ones who are begging for letting the surplus go will be the ones lampooning the government when they don’t achieve it, not because they didn’t achieve it but because they said they wanted to achieve one when achieving one wasn’t appropriate.
No-one knows when a surplus is appropriate, but it definitely isn’t when the government wants one.
Who in the hell would ever try to please this pack of bogan, uneducated, spoilt, wowserish, dummy-spitting clowns?
Sorry for double post, first one did not appear.
@BB/07,
Products of previous generations and the minuses that come with it – greed/selfishness etc.
Patrick Bateman @ 4
The “hysteria” is because we all know exactly who Abbott is dog whistling about when he says only the “right” kids should get money for education.
@ Bushfire Bill – Well fired!
Ian,
Good letter in the last thread. Well nuanced.
I’m with you BB. After all, you couldn’t have toilet-level political discourse nor a rabid seek-and-destroy Murdoch press without a critical mass of an audience to give them sustenance.
BB
Otiose attempt at various emoticons – worked perfectly in ‘preview’, failed posting
BB you sum it up perfectly. Your posts alone make this blog compulsory reading.
The surplus thing is important as the dumb voters still believe that the incompetants in the opposition with their $7-11b black hole from last time and their $70b + shortfall from their current promises are superior economic managers. Hockey has said a number of times that Labor would never get a surplus. Its important politically that they do
This poll is still trending the right way from Labor’s point of view, as are Gillard’s numbers. Things will improve further when the carbon tax and its compensation comes into effect.
I agree with BB – I think the moral nature of Australia has changed for the worse over the past two decades. Howard took advantage of it, but he couldn’t have done it unless a majority accepted it. We are a wealthier nation, but also a more selfish one.
Don’t blame the people, it was Rudd and Swan who insisted they were economic conservatives and Gillard and Swan who promised a budget surplus in 2012/2013. Furthermore Labor spent a great deal of political capital in attempting to destroy the credibility of the Howard/Costello economic performance and so set themselves up as the great economic managers. Time to deliver.
Personally I agree with the results of Essential research. The economy is more important than an election promise which should never have been made in the first place. Of the key election promises I wish it was this one they failed to keep if necessary.
This response is from the earlier thread before discovering comments cut out.
[gusface
Posted Monday, November 28, 2011 at 11:09 am | Permalink
aaarfgh
abboott and CFW at ajax factory in silverrwater
rescind the carbon tax
wasteful spending
50 bill broadband
3 word slogans]
Yes. Unfortunately our TV was on ABC24 and I got a bit stuck with that blather. The bit I picked up was that this foundry was closing because the carbon tax would lead to increased electricity charges of $100,000 (presumably pa).
I didn’t stay long enough to hear questions if any on this. But that figure had me worried. According to Treasury estimates and Combet, carbon pricing will lead to increased electricity charges, varying, but maximum of about 15%.
That means that on those figures that foundry consumes about $650,000 pa electricity. Sounds like a very energy-intense industry if true. It sounds to me like Abbott might be making things up.
Even if true, there are tax offset provisions to get some industries through. I rather think that if that closure is to occur the reasons are probably similar to the Lalor area one. That is, there were other commercial reasons for the change. Carbon pricing was merely an excuse to justify job-shedding.
On the deficit, I also agree it may be realistic for Labor to stay in deficit rather than cut spending if the international economy worsens. Cuts to spending in Europe and USA have been disastrous.
@Socrates – Perceptive comment.
The Oppositions ‘black hole’ will be filled when Shockey trips next.
[On the deficit, I also agree it may be realistic for Labor to stay in deficit rather than cut spending if the international economy worsens. Cuts to spending in Europe and USA have been disastrous.]
The problem is that the punters have been sold on the stupid neocon/Tea Party idea that “big government” is bad and that anything other than a surplus every year is a disaster. And Mr Rabbit will of course be utterly irresponsible about this issue, say it shows how Labor can’t be trusted to keep promises etc etc.
[… it was Rudd and Swan who insisted they were economic conservatives and Gillard and Swan who promised a budget surplus in 2012/2013. Furthermore Labor spent a great deal of political capital in attempting to destroy the credibility of the Howard/Costello economic performance and so set themselves up as the great economic managers. Time to deliver.]
Oh they have delivered and they keep on delivering. They probably saved your arse during the GFC in one form or another (as they saved me) whether it was providing the banks with confidence that the government was backing them all the way through to ensuring that businesses retained many thousands of people that would normally have been cut.
Your party of choice would have limited the guarantee on banking which would have started a downward spiral on confidence.
[Gillard and Swan who promised a budget surplus in 2012/2013.]
They only did so because of the never ending dishonest statements by Abbott, Hockey & co about ‘Labor spending the suplus’ and the media replaying them uncriticially until they became accepted facts in the voters minds.
Only Red Kerry had the temerity to point out the main reason for our debt was the shortfall in tax receipts due to the GFC. Of course such honesty is never exhibited by the current hosts of 730 report.
[I agree with BB – I think the moral nature of Australia has changed for the worse over the past two decades. Howard took advantage of it, but he couldn’t have done it unless a majority accepted it. We are a wealthier nation, but also a more selfish one.]
I question cause and effect where Howard is concerned.
He slowly convinced people that total selfishness was, at first, acceptible and, later, laudable and the basis of our society. He created a sense of entitlement to private gain before public good, even in the context of public spending (middle class welfare etc). We are still reaping the whirlwind from his cynical policies.
[ … 11 per cent for “all Australians”.]
Interesting numbers re mining. It could be, it just could be, that the tide has turned.
Full tables from Essential Research.
As a earlier poster has commented Swan will do what is best for the country by taking the advice of Treasury.
Notice must be given as well, I think, to the statements by Ministers connecting fiscal responsibility to interest rate movement and by reducing the deficit it gives THe RBA “room to move ” on rates.
Release the mid year report this week showing significant savings and push the point of connecting this fiscal responsibility with interest rate cuts and sit back and wait.
Depending on Europe, a rate cut may happen in December and/or early next year. Good to be able to connect the cut (s) with the savings made by government.
May be political but, hey, if you can combine good policy with good politics why not ?
Looking at the Essential question it would appear to me people connect the surplus with increased taxes and or significant cuts to frontline services. The Mid year review will have significant savings measures but these savings measures will be targeted away from frontline services and will not increase taxes for the ordinary punter. Tax loopholes will be closed but will affect those that may well garner little support from the public.
Abbott and co have been screaming about increased taxes etc and once the public sees that this will not be the case then the mood may change especially if rate cuts happen in the next few months.
Add the changes to Family A payments and what has been anticipated as a big hit to the ordinary Aussie may well be looked as “hey, what is the fuss ?”
Perhaps a bit like the raection to Carbon pricing once it begins.
BB@7 great precis.
Continues to boggle the mind.
GD
foundry’s do consume mega electrickery
but the 100k figure was straight outta abbootts arsk
btw there is aspecial 200m fund for for foundry’s and other furnace type businesses
DWH 17
I agree with you on the spending, but disagree with you on Swan/Rudd economic performance. In comparative and absolute terms our performance was the best in the western world. It even beat South Korea, which also trades with China, so this wasn’t just an accident of geogrpahy. Where they failed abysmally was in selling their economic achievements. The disaster for Labor was the last election campaign, where the best economy in the OECD wasn’t menioned till week 3. Little better was the panic leading up to it where achievements were apologised for as though they were mistakes. The economic management of Labor was great. The selling of it was terrible. With the Liberals, it was almost the other way around.
Patrck u have not caught up with what some dtstes do now
All stay till 11/12.choice
go to a trade training school for two years experience a trade, get trade certificate,
Also a lot of these children and that is what they are,get apprentatces ship along the way so do a bit of each
Choice two go to tertiary school, get hcs go to unit
Don’t make excuses for abbott he lives in a time warp,
Yu will also find people own businesses dont take on just any one these days
Now I want u to list for me the work children can get with no. No qualifations
Can u f course they could end up on the street taking drugs
Go to uni,
DavidW@17
Nice try David, but we know how this story ends.
No matter what JG and labor do, they will get it wrong , so from JG and Labors point of view ,a surplus is the only answer.
Why give the 2gb swamp people and their followers (murdoch , msm and others) wiggle room..we also know that abbott and hockey will say the opposite , so for me delivering the surplus is the only way to go..and hey isn’t this what the tea party lnp insist on?
Remember David, Abbot and Hockey are going to return the budget to surplus sooner and with out increasing taxes and still meeting all their promises..to use your logic ..they promised it , so must deliver.
Seems essential slow but reliable may be
[Now I want u to list for me the work children can get with no. No qualifations
Can u f course they could end up on the street taking drugs]
That’s what I’m saying – I doubt Abbott is saying “leave school in year 10 and become an unskilled labourer”. I’ve heard him (or some other Lib) bang on before about kids being encouraged to do vocational training rather than finishing high school.
Not sure what your memories of high school are like, but there would have been maybe 1 in 20 kids in my year who would have derived absolutely no benefit from year 12, other than learning to hate school.
Socrates @ 16
No doubt about it.
It is particularly necessary in such circumstances for there to be strong political leadership with a willingness to say what is right and convince the doubters of the proposed action. Whitlam was the best exemplar in my lifetime.
What’s up with crikey’s servers?
[He (Howard) slowly convinced people that total selfishness was, at first, acceptable and, later, laudable and the basis of our society. He created a sense of entitlement to private gain before public good, even in the context of public spending (middle class welfare, etc). We are still reaping the whirlwind from his cynical policies.]
That’s the best summation of the Howard era I’ve yet read.
@my say/32,
I’m hoping to goto uni next year, it’s annoying to wait for the offer rounds from QTAC.
@bemused – Goff was great at knowing what to overturn. Not so good at sustainability – he did his job but his time soon passed.
Well, we do have the emoticons back but the site gremlins are still actively pissing me off. It takes forever to bring up a new page or return to the page after reading a link, and it seems to be hit and miss when posting a comment.
Soc
[I agree with BB – I think the moral nature of Australia has changed for the worse over the past two decades. Howard took advantage of it, but he couldn’t have done it unless a majority accepted it. We are a wealthier nation, but also a more selfish one.]
And that applies across the board not just to “bogans” a word I find offensive.
I think that society has fundamentally changed in that we were brought up with the meme that “taxes are the price you pay to live in a civilised society”. That concept has now been rephrased to “I am paying you taxes and I will tell you what you can spend it on.” Doubt there will be any going back from here and the Conservatives will and do capitalise on that fact.
[He (Howard) slowly convinced people that total selfishness was, at first, acceptable and, later, laudable and the basis of our society. He created a sense of entitlement to private gain before public good, even in the context of public spending (middle class welfare, etc). ]
Hpward had a fairly classical Ayn Rand philosophy.
Further to my post @27,
It appears that lending markets are starting to tighten up.
So, on this basis and the fact that the RBA will not meet again until February it would not surprise me if they cut by .25 next month.
Two reasons for that.
Firstly, by cutting next month the banks may be inclined to pass on the full .25 before markets tighten even further over Christmas/ new year.
Cuts next year may be only partially passed on by the banks as they complain of rising costs so the full impact may be diluted a bit by waiting.
Secondly, the very fact the RBA will not meet again until February may see them preempt any possible downturn in Europe by cutting next month. Better than being caught with your pants down over Christmas/new year.
Any .25 cut may not be significant in the overall scheme of things but it does play into confidence so it well may be best to go early and ensure full bang for your buck.
On the other hand this may all be dribble and nothing happens.
Maybe after Abbot goes on these photo shoots and subsequent news conferences where he spouts all sorts on unsubstantiated figures someone should seek out said factory manager, give him or her the facts then have a second press conference with the real figures or the real story.
[So the Slipper speaker change has had no real effect then?]
The effect will be when/if he takes no coalition prisoners and change the house for the better?
mtbw
we have become the ‘greed is good society’ society.
[Hpward had a fairly classical Ayn Rand philosophy.]
Except that he increased the role of the welfare state, only its welfare was directed to those whose votes was most required.
Probably pure democracy in action. A terrible sight.
Ian
Re your letter to KR
I am liking your style.
janice2@41
This won’t help William’s hit count, but when you want to read a link you should right click on the link and select “Open in New Tab”, then move back to the original tab when you are done. This is an option with all modern browsers (even newer version of IE I’ve be told). If you only have and old verion of IE then I recommend you use
Google Chrome or Firefox.