Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research poll has Labor recovering the point they lost last week, with the Coalition lead on two-party preferred down from 55-45 to 54-46. However, the primary vote figures suggest there is little in the change: the major parties are steady on 34 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition (although a one-point drop for the Liberals disappears from the Coalition total after rounding), with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent. Other questions find mounting opposition to the contention that the budget should return to surplus at all costs. Seventy-one per cent declared themselves opposed if doing so meant “cutting services and raising taxes”, with only 13 per cent supportive. Fifty-eight per cent said there was no need for the budget to return to surplus so quickly compared with 38 per cent in April, but if the government remains determined, the number who believe it should be paid for by removing tax breaks for high income earners (59 per cent) and increasing taxes for corporations (72 per cent) is up eight and nine points respectively. Only 35 per cent nominated cuts to “middle-class welfare”.

Further evidence of voters’ curiously social democratic bent was furnished by a question in which respondents were asked to indicated whether various parties had benefited from the mining boom: 68 per cent said yes for mining company executives, 48 per cent for shareholders and 42 per cent for foreign companies, against 12 per cent for regional communities and 11 per cent for “all Australians”. There was also an interesting question on the leaders’ performances during Barack Obama’s visit, in light of suggestions that Julia Gillard had been too effusive and Tony Abbott had politicised the occasion. The results suggest much more support for the latter contention than the former: Gillard’s performance was rated good by 38 per cent and poor by 23 per cent, compared with 18 per cent and 30 per cent for Abbott.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,054 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  5. Confessions

    How the bloody hell is accurately discussing an election date trolling. It is not wise for people to have false dates in mind and spread silly rumours.

    Why be gratuitously nasty? Why?

    Discussion about the likely election date is not party political nor Rudd/Gillard or any other trolling.

    First it is fact – established – The latest possible date in November 30 2013 not February 2014. Quite important to establish on a polling blog don’t you think?

    Second the timing of the election is interesting (but just a bit premature). However it will be a brave PM who goes beyond the three years. Might happen but the media will spin negatively.

    Therefore logic (if you follow) is that July or August are likely dates, September at a pinch and just possibly October because the election writ is called before the third anniversary of the 2010 election. Follow? If the polls are bad then it will be June. Follow?

  6. DTT,

    If you want to be treated seriously get your facts right.

    First it is fact – established – The latest possible date in November 30 2013 not February 2014.

    Wrong. Check Antony Green.

  11. The election has to be within 3 years from the first day of sitting of the current parliament which makes 30 November 2013 sound about right and if AG says it is then that’s Gospel.

  16. DavidWH that is a fairly traditional thing on the last day of the parliamentary year but Labor has done relatively well in February elections in the past.

  19. Zoid,
    Congrats on getting into your uni course. Just remember, in spite of the uni bar, the uni hippie pit and the uni canoodling, you are supposed to study occasionally.

  21. [How the bloody hell is accurately discussing an election date trolling. It is not wise for people to have false dates in mind and spread silly rumours.]

    Do you agree with the AEC or not? A Wednesday federal election (which you advocated) sounds most improbable, in which case, why beat up on my say?

    She was right wrt the Senate, so why attack her?

    [Why be gratuitously nasty? Why? ]

    Why the emotive language? “Gratuitously nasty”? Gimme a break.

  22. DavidWH

    There won’t be a Qld State Election in March 2012 because councils are having their elections in that month. Hopefully MBRC will get a new Mayor.

  23. Profess,

    Look at it this way: Labor gets on with its job and so does the Coalition.

    The Main Stream Mice and the radio jockeys will have a great influence, like it or not.

    Some stragetician within Labor has to get on the job toute suite and the tactitians have to be up to the job “going forward”. My unfavourite pollyism!

  24. Cheers Puff, thankfully,

    I am one of the sane members of my family and don’t drink at all.

    DavidWH, Information Technology, but probably just as bad lol.

  27. [confessions

    Posted Friday, December 2, 2011 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    How the bloody hell is accurately discussing an election date trolling. It is not wise for people to have false dates in mind and spread silly rumours.

    Do you agree with the AEC or not? A Wednesday federal election (which you advocated) sounds most improbable, in which case, why beat up on my say?

    She was right wrt the Senate, so why attack her?

    Why be gratuitously nasty? Why?

    Why the emotive language? “Gratuitously nasty”? Gimme a break.
    ]

    Elections are held on a Saturday for obvious reasons – it’ the only day of the week where you can get a maximum turnout. Good luck getting bosses to allow time off to vote during a weekday. Also most if not all polling palces are in schools – ggod luck finding suitable polling places on a weekday.

    It seems Daretoread is still stuck in the 90’s – The restof of the ALP and world has moved on.

  29. MsAdventure it might pay to read William’s link to Antony Green where he explains something quite different to your suggestion at 4022.

    [DavidWH

    There won’t be a Qld State Election in March 2012 because councils are having their elections in that month. Hopefully MBRC will get a new Mayor.]

    [February or March 2012 are the most likely months for the Queensland election as any later date gets caught up with Easter. The announcement of the election date may be accompanied by a deferral of the local government elections.]

  32. [Diogenes

    Posted Saturday, December 3, 2011 at 12:14 am | Permalink

    Frank

    Why not a Sunday?

    The US votes on a Tuesday, but we couldn’t do that with compulsory voting.
    ]

    Can you imagine outcry from the Churches ?

  33. Frank

    [Can you imagine outcry from the Churches ?]

    They seem to be OK with almost every other thing happening on a Sunday now. I believe in some towns they use the church hall as the polling place so it probably isn’t practical.

  34. Er Confessions

    I did not mention Wednesday – That was Rua. i just indicated the latest POSSIBLE date. I was in fact out a bit and RUA (and William and Green) were right. I could not recall the day the 2010 parliament sat – Was it Really 5 weeks after the election? time went very fast.

    Confessions you accused me of trolling. Gratuitously nasty – Yep

  35. [Diogenes

    Posted Saturday, December 3, 2011 at 12:24 am | Permalink

    Frank

    Can you imagine outcry from the Churches ?

    They seem to be OK with almost every other thing happening on a Sunday now. I believe in some towns they use the church hall as the polling place so it probably isn’t practical.
    ]

    I can tell you now the Christian Churches will use the “Day of Rest” Mantra to stop it.

  37. 4028

    Most of the United States have public holidays on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November in Election years (which I believe is every year in some states). We could then have weekday elections. The UK has Thursday elections with no public holiday but the polling stations are open until 10pm.

  38. Frank

    [I can tell you now the Christian Churches will use the “Day of Rest” Mantra to stop it.]

    Do they still talk about that? My dad is quite religious (Catholic and goes every week) but he doesn’t ever not do something coz it’s Sunday.

  42. Weekdays are out for Aussie elections because
    1. School halls are not available
    2. The electorate staff have other jobs and are not available
    3. tradition
    4. Compulsory voting means it needs to be the weekend

    Not sure why this rabbit is running?

  43. [4038

    Diogenes

    Posted Saturday, December 3, 2011 at 12:32 am | Permalink

    Frank

    I can tell you now the Christian Churches will use the “Day of Rest” Mantra to stop it.

    Do they still talk about that? My dad is quite religious (Catholic and goes every week) but he doesn’t ever not do something coz it’s Sunday.
    ]

    Have you seen professional sport played prior to 12 Noon ?

  46. Steve
    [February or March 2012 are the most likely months for the Queensland election as any later date gets caught up with Easter. The announcement of the election date may be accompanied by a deferral of the local government elections.]

    It is unlikely the Council election will be moved, my local MP thinks Feb or April, someone on PB suggested after Coral Sea week which is in May. So, as usual, it is ????

  47. 4042

    I am not advocating change but a public holiday on election day would solve problems 1, 2 and 4. With all the Saturday trading on on normal Saturday and more people working on a normal Saturday should Australia have election days as public holidays?

    In some US states bars are closed on election day until the polls close.

  48. Frank

    [Have you seen professional sport played prior to 12 Noon ?]

    I think that golf tournaments (eg Australian Open) play on Sunday morning. I’m pretty sure the Australian Open tennis is on before 12 on Sunday but I can’t say I’ve particularly noticed.

  49. So it looks as though Local Government elections are to be held on the last Saturday in March unless a regulation sets a different date for a given year.

    [Clause 9. Section 16(1), (1A) and (2)– 2
    omit, insert– 3
    `(1) A triennial election of the councillors is to be held on 15 March 4
    1997.1 5
    `(2) However, a regulation may fix a different date for the election. 6
    `(2A) Later triennial elections are to be held in every third year after 1997 7
    on the last Saturday in March. 8
    `(2B) However, a regulation may fix a different date for a particular 9
    year.’. 10

    of s 17 (Provisions concerning elections) 11
    Amendment]

    http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/qld/bill/lglab1996384/

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