Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition phone poll, 56-44 face-to-face

Roy Morgan has released two sets of poll results, one from its regular weekend face-to-face polling with 856 respondents, the other conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from only 525 respondents, but using far more reliable phone polling methodology. Bearing in mind that the latter has a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent, it’s the best result Labor has had in a phone poll since May: their primary vote is at 34 per cent with the Coalition on 45 per cent and the Greens on 12.5 per cent. Applying Morgan’s headline two-party figure derived by asking minor party and independent voters how they would direct their preferences, the Coalition holds a modest lead of 51.5-48.5: however, the more reliable method of allocating preferences as per the result of the previous election has it at 52.5-47.5.

The phone poll was also used to gauge opinion on the Qantas dispute and Australian involvement in Afghanistan. The former is the first polling to emerge on this issue since the events of last weekend, and it finds respondents more inclined to blame management (56 per cent) than unions (42 per cent) for the shutdown, with 61 per cent disapproving of the decision to do so against 35 per cent who approve. However, 64 per cent are willing to sign on to the idea that “the federal government should have acted sooner”, whatever the ambiguities involved with such an assertion, an idea opposed by 32 per cent. The figures on Afghanistan show a remarkable reversal since Morgan last asked the question in early May, support for withdrawal going from 40 per cent 72 per cent with opposition down from 54 per cent to 21 per cent. However, the earlier result was at odds with the findings of an Essential Research poll conducted at the same time which had 56 per cent supporting withdrawal. Essential Research has had support for withdrawal progressing from 47 per cent last October to 56 per cent in May to 64 per cent in late August.

The results of the face-to-face poll have Labor on 34 per cent (down one on the previous week), the Coalition on 46.5 per cent (down three) and the Greens recording their highest rating in nearly a year with 13.5 per cent (up three). The two-party results present the usual confused picture: on respondent-allocated preferences the Coalition leads 56-44 (56.5-43.5 in the previous week), with minor party and independent preferences splitting about 50-50 – typical of recent Morgan face-to-face polling, but quite unlike any election result of recent history. The Coalition’s lead on the previous election’s preferences are a much more modest 53-47, compared with 54.5-45.5 last time.

UPDATE: The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor up a point to 35 per cent, the Coalition down one to 46 per cent and the Greens down one to 9 per cent. Two-party preferred has also edged a point in Labor’s favour, from 55-45 to 54-46. This is Labor’s best result on two-party since June 14, and on the primary vote since May 16. It exactly replicates Morgan in finding 35 per cent approving of Qantas’s shutdown, but disapproval is 53 per cent rather than 61 per cent. A question on who is to blame substitutes “workers” for ”unions” and includes a “both equally” option: the results are 41 per cent management, 20 per cent workers and 31 per cent both. Respondents were also asked whether they approved or disapproved of various parties’ handling of the matter, with pretty much equally bad results for the government, opposition, management, workers (although here the “strongly disapprove” rating was relatively low), Alan Joyce and “union leaders”. Julia Gillard and the government recorded 30 per cent approval and 59 per cent disapproval, against 27 per cent and 45 per cent for Tony Abbott and the opposition. The one party that emerged favourably was Fair Work Australia, with 55 per cent and 21 per cent. There are also questions on media usage which point to an increasing use of the internet as a news source, but not to the extent that respondents would be willing to pay for the content (9 per cent say likely, 88 per cent unlikely).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,846 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition phone poll, 56-44 face-to-face”

Comments Page 54 of 57
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  2. Strangest thing – question from the audience about ALP factions and instability and… well, basically Ruddstoration. Jones went to Reith first, then I think Ray Martin, but (tellingly) not to Kate Ellis, who would have to be the best placed to address the question?

  3. Rigor (with a different pronunciation) is an involuntary muscle contraction ( the Latin root is rigor, The French added the u for the other definition)

  5. [Rigor (with a different pronunciation) ]
    Not in “Rigor mortis”. I’m surprised that the French didn’t say “rigeur” But wait …

  8. THE COOGEE CHEMICAL SAGA:
    8th instalment

    All was going to plan for Coogee Resources – until the GFC hit.

    Coogee owned 65% of the company, but Badcock and Brown owned 35%.

    [After initially attempting a public float, Coogee Resources was financed by the merchant banker, Babcock & Brown, which collapsed when the global financial crisis erupted in 2008. In October 2008, unable to fund the Montara project, Coogee Resources was put on the market.]

    http://www.wsws.org/articles/2010/jun2010/dril-j18.shtml

  14. glory:

    A question about Labor leadership and Jones throws to Reith, when the one person sitting on the panel who is the only member of the Labor Caucus is ignored.

    That’s gotcha sensationalism.

    I haven’t watched qanda in ages, and it seems I’m not missing anything. I did hear Jones announce it was the final qanda for the year – thank heavens for that! No more trolling the Tuesday news cycle.

  16. Confessions:

    QandA has been quite pro-ALP tonight I think (not that I have any problem with it whatsoever) so how you all complain about it as being another example of media bias is truly beyond me!

  18. 2446 kezza2
    [Which brings me to what I have been doing today. I’ve been following Coogee Chemical’s announcement about shelving a $1 billion project because of the carbon price.

    It didn’t and doesn’t make sense.

    Therefore, I propose to post my “research” during the evening or tomorrow if anyone’s interested.

    I have three A4 pages of articles to dissect, even though I have the gist of the argument right now. Just have to get my act together to render it readable, in a logical, manner.

    I feel like emailing the lot OPT so that she can use her skills at bringing the real story to the fore.]

    Got a bit of the Senate QT today. Penny Wong was not amused by a Liberal Senator’s (Ryan?) attempts at gotchas. She pointed out that Combet had already dealt with it. The prime point was the story was BS because the carbon pricing would NOT affect their costs. The compensation provided for would mean that the company would recover more than 100% of any increased costs.

    Might be interesting to track down the sources of the story, assuming it was not merely beaten up.

  22. Please… not another woman leader !!
    __________________________
    In this probably silly talk about Kate Ellis as a PM candidate one imagines the voters would respond with”Kate Who”
    but The Iron Law of Australian politics always operates
    NO WOMAN WINS >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    At the risk of being repeatious let me cite just a few names of defeated women leaders…..
    Kirner(Vic) Premier
    Lawrence(WA) Pemier
    Kennelly(NSW) Premier
    Redmond(SA OPPOS)
    Kate Carnell l(ACT)

    I know Bligh won last time,but she seems doomed now
    and there was Labor woman in NT …but the NT isn’t a real place…just a small colonial dependency of the ACT..

    All have in common that these woman in the Premier’s office were all swept out after a short term
    Now the polls show a 62/32 male vote against Gillard….another disaster on the horizon
    Woman leaders in Australia have proved interesting but a sure receipe for defeat….

    .There IS a glass ceiling it seems

  24. [deblonay

    Posted Monday, November 7, 2011 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    Please… not another woman leader !!
    __________________________

    ]

    Mr Mysooginy has arrived.

    So you oppose CHristine Miklne or Sarah Hanson Young leading your beloved Greens ?

  27. [Steph_Philbrick Stephanie Philbrick
    I’m sure Jessica Rudd is a nice woman. But her repeated presence on #QandA reeks of privilege and nepotism.
    1 minute ago]

    I somewhat agree, but I think its mainly mischief making on the Q&A producers part.

  30. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    @
    @GhostWhoVotes Ghost, where is the #RegimeChange Newspoll? #auspol
    48 seconds ago

  31. [Kirner(Vic) Premier
    Lawrence(WA) Pemier
    Kennelly(NSW) Premier
    Redmond(SA OPPOS)
    Kate Carnell l(ACT)]

    First 3 were given poison chalice.
    Next one will win next time wont she?
    Kate is doing OK for herself aint she? See her on the idiotbox now and then.

  32. Catching up with mum tomorrow, who lives in Tone’s electorate. Will be able to ascertain the sentiments of the women at her gym, who are pro-Abbott, but have proved effective bellwethers on Abbott’s media presentation in the past – the budgie smugglers (now ditched), the man-boob-emphasising shirts (also now ditched), the hectoring tone of voice in news grabs (long gone), and that sinister laugh of his (also long gone).

    Will be interested to hear what they are saying now that Abbott’s shallowness has come to the fore and appears to be shaping the way the press gallery report the coalition.

  33. [zoidlord
    Posted Monday, November 7, 2011 at 10:32 pm | Permalink
    @Mod Lib/2666,

    You’re complaining but]

    Just voicing my shock how anyone could consider that a pro Lib QandA thats all!

  35. deblonay,

    Two suggestions:

    Loose the distracting lines (mind you, they help the scroll factor)

    Stop trying to emulate the oracle of Delphi.

  38. QandA has been quite pro-ALP tonight I think (not that I have any problem with it whatsoever) so how you all complain about it as being another example of media bias is truly beyond me!

    Fair point. I haven’t seen it for ages, but I didn’t find it annoying at all tonight. I think that’s partly because Reith was in a relaxed mood, happy to provide opinion without being partisan about it. And Turnbull, well, it’s not often he sticks to the party line anyway. And seeing as Kate was overlooked for much of the time, that means there was little party-political commentary at all.

    Been a weird week for me. I saw Insiders yesterday, 7.30 and QandA tonight. I swore off them all ages ago. But they all seemed reasonable this time around. Can’t say I’ll stick with them all, but I wasn’t disappointed.

  39. Mr deblarny

    Why not

    U made the statement tell us why

    I would love to see the high court all female , now that would be great ,,,,,,,,

  40. THE COOGEE CHEMICAL SAGA:
    9th instalment

    Now, merchant banker, Babcock and Brown, had spent $242 million in their investment with Coogee Resources but they had a crippling $3 billion debt in 2008. They decided to get rid of the 35% stake in Coogee it had acquired in August 2007.

    This forced Coogee Resources hand. It had no option but to sell its 60% stake in a venture it wanted to pursue.

    http://www.pennenergyequipment.com/article/display.html?id=349045

  41. Mr deblarny

    Why not

    U made the statement tell us why

    I would love to see the high court all female , now that would be great ….,,,,,,,,l

  42. [Please… not another woman leader !!]

    Just out of curiosity, was it you who suggested pre 2010 election that voters in Chifley would never elect a muslim candidate?

    Or am I confusing you with another commenter?

  43. Mr deblarny

    Why not

    U made the statement tell us why

    I would love to see the high court all female , now that would be great o,,,,,….,,,,,,,,l

  44. Mr deblarny

    Why not

    U made the statement tell us why

    I would love to see the high court all female , now that would be great o,,,,,….,,,,,,,,l

  46. [vanOnselenP Peter van Onselen
    Abbott’s negativity is catching up with him…..he better be careful lest momentum continues to shift.
    1 minute ago ]

    Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    @
    @vanOnselenP So you. belatedly, joining the #MSM crowd also to tell the truth about policy free Abbott #auspol
    35 seconds ago

  48. [vanOnselenP Peter van Onselen
    Abbott’s negativity is catching up with him…..he better be careful lest momentum continues to shift.]

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