Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition phone poll, 56-44 face-to-face

Roy Morgan has released two sets of poll results, one from its regular weekend face-to-face polling with 856 respondents, the other conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from only 525 respondents, but using far more reliable phone polling methodology. Bearing in mind that the latter has a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent, it’s the best result Labor has had in a phone poll since May: their primary vote is at 34 per cent with the Coalition on 45 per cent and the Greens on 12.5 per cent. Applying Morgan’s headline two-party figure derived by asking minor party and independent voters how they would direct their preferences, the Coalition holds a modest lead of 51.5-48.5: however, the more reliable method of allocating preferences as per the result of the previous election has it at 52.5-47.5.

The phone poll was also used to gauge opinion on the Qantas dispute and Australian involvement in Afghanistan. The former is the first polling to emerge on this issue since the events of last weekend, and it finds respondents more inclined to blame management (56 per cent) than unions (42 per cent) for the shutdown, with 61 per cent disapproving of the decision to do so against 35 per cent who approve. However, 64 per cent are willing to sign on to the idea that “the federal government should have acted sooner”, whatever the ambiguities involved with such an assertion, an idea opposed by 32 per cent. The figures on Afghanistan show a remarkable reversal since Morgan last asked the question in early May, support for withdrawal going from 40 per cent 72 per cent with opposition down from 54 per cent to 21 per cent. However, the earlier result was at odds with the findings of an Essential Research poll conducted at the same time which had 56 per cent supporting withdrawal. Essential Research has had support for withdrawal progressing from 47 per cent last October to 56 per cent in May to 64 per cent in late August.

The results of the face-to-face poll have Labor on 34 per cent (down one on the previous week), the Coalition on 46.5 per cent (down three) and the Greens recording their highest rating in nearly a year with 13.5 per cent (up three). The two-party results present the usual confused picture: on respondent-allocated preferences the Coalition leads 56-44 (56.5-43.5 in the previous week), with minor party and independent preferences splitting about 50-50 – typical of recent Morgan face-to-face polling, but quite unlike any election result of recent history. The Coalition’s lead on the previous election’s preferences are a much more modest 53-47, compared with 54.5-45.5 last time.

UPDATE: The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor up a point to 35 per cent, the Coalition down one to 46 per cent and the Greens down one to 9 per cent. Two-party preferred has also edged a point in Labor’s favour, from 55-45 to 54-46. This is Labor’s best result on two-party since June 14, and on the primary vote since May 16. It exactly replicates Morgan in finding 35 per cent approving of Qantas’s shutdown, but disapproval is 53 per cent rather than 61 per cent. A question on who is to blame substitutes “workers” for ”unions” and includes a “both equally” option: the results are 41 per cent management, 20 per cent workers and 31 per cent both. Respondents were also asked whether they approved or disapproved of various parties’ handling of the matter, with pretty much equally bad results for the government, opposition, management, workers (although here the “strongly disapprove” rating was relatively low), Alan Joyce and “union leaders”. Julia Gillard and the government recorded 30 per cent approval and 59 per cent disapproval, against 27 per cent and 45 per cent for Tony Abbott and the opposition. The one party that emerged favourably was Fair Work Australia, with 55 per cent and 21 per cent. There are also questions on media usage which point to an increasing use of the internet as a news source, but not to the extent that respondents would be willing to pay for the content (9 per cent say likely, 88 per cent unlikely).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,846 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition phone poll, 56-44 face-to-face”

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  8. [cud chewer

    Posted Friday, November 4, 2011 at 9:24 pm | Permalink

    Now that’s the weirdest thing I’ve seen in a while..
    ]

    Noticed how Evan spoke about everything else EXCEPT Morgan 🙂

    He is in Lutto (Italian term for Mourning).

  9. The Finnigans

    [Ha ha ha The Narrowing No: 1]
    The Narrowing. How about in Mr Abbott’s honour we call it the Tightening of the Budgie Smugglers ?

  10. I’m just happy to see some positive polling for Labor at last. Nothing will kill the Ruddstoration rubbish quicker than JG getting poll bounces all over the place.

  12. Doogie’s question about the $90 million (I think) fine accorded to Qantas for being a party to a baggage cartel was most interesting, in terms of accounting, i.e. just where did it end up on the balance sheet?

    (As well as being interesting in getting into the public sphere. I mean it probably had been reported before, but I can’t remember hearing about it)

    It is especially interesting though when coupled with the alleged $400 million Jetconnect costs also perhaps put on Q’s balance sheet.

    There could be some very dodgy accounting practices coming to light in the next round!

  18. poroti @14,

    Once upon a time, the morgan face to face always went way out on a limb for Labor. This time its inverted – even allowing for moe.

    Weirdness

  20. I mentioned this the other day William. My browser is looking for the emoticons at…

    “http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/wp-content/mu-plugins/tango/”

    Does the location exist with the emoticon pics in it?

  21. confessions & Andrew

    [ how strange that the F2F traditionally far better for Labor than phone is now far worse

    Shy Julia Effect?]

    That’s what I think about the recent morgan F2F polls, you’re not supposed to like Julia & Labor (everyone says so or that’s how it seems to most people), at least not yet. It influences how people answer in a live situation. If we get to parity the F2F may start to flip over.

  22. cud chewer

    [poroti @14,

    Once upon a time, the morgan face to face always went way out on a limb for Labor. This time its inverted – even allowing for moe.

    Weirdness]
    Yes that is indeed most unusual. Now we need a Psephological Professor to explain “Why is it So ?”

  23. [how strange that the F2F traditionally far better for Labor than phone is now far worse]

    Actually, the two sets of primary vote results are about the same. That they have produced such vastly different headline two-party results is testament to Morgan’s goofiness in favouring the respondent-allocated preferences measure.

  24. Tobe – I am with you! 47/53 is not a bad position for Labor to be in at the moment, with close to another 2 years to go. The trend of Labor’s polling recovery is now pretty well set, which adds to the interest of the polls to be released in the coming week. Fingers crossed.

  25. [Once upon a time, the morgan face to face always went way out on a limb for Labor. This time its inverted – even allowing for moe.

    Weirdness]

    Perhaps it’s a reflection of what people feel they are expected to say (to a face)… a reflection of the crap being dealt to Gillard. In the past people probably felt “the face” had a job that was inclined to vote Labor, now they feel they are expected to hate Gillard and the hung parliament. The phone is more anonymous.

  26. Tobe i was just thinking, whats the bet the MSM will go with a Gillard should take advantage of a comeback and go early meme

  27. Outsider

    [Tobe – I am with you! 47/53 is not a bad position for Labor to be in at the moment, with close to another 2 years to go]
    Where it will really hit home is in a years time when all the $’s from the CP and MRRT start flowing.Who but a pollie with a death wish would be promising to take it away ? The moola has to be worth a couple more % points at least.

  28. [Actually, the two sets of primary vote results are about the same. That they have produced such vastly different headline two-party results is testament to Morgan’s goofiness in favouring the respondent-allocated preferences measure.]

    Okay, understand now – thanks for clarification.

  29. yes poroti. if abbott is still there, we will have a situation for the first time with an opposition promising to reduce pensions, reduce super and increase income tax

  30. If it becomes 50-50, may I suggest a news story for the hacks:

    “Gillard is desperately clinging on to her leadership as new polls reveal that the government are in a position to win in a landslide if they switch to Kevin Rudd. Current opinion polls are at 50-50 2PP (a result that cannot guarantee Labor would return to government at the next election) and could easily become 56-44 to Labor, if Rudd returned to the leadership. Former Labor Minister, Graham Richardson…” etc.

  31. [

    @JoeHockeyJoe Hockey

    Reading Ray Martin’s new book which I am launching on Thursday. Great interviews make a good read!

    1 Novvia Twitter for iPadFavoriteRetweetReply

    ——————————————————————————–

    Retweeted by Casey_Barnes

  32. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    PM Gillard got a new man and Tim is in the dog house #auspol

    16 seconds ago

  35. The only thing that the electorate hate more than an early election is an early DD election. Promising a DD is madness. Even if these polls are premature I seriously do not think Abbott is the frontrunner for a 2013 election.

  36. OMG, there is some crazy shit movie from Japan on World Movies called Yatterman – makes me think I did drop acid when I was younger but completely forgot about it.

    It’s like Beetlejuice meets Batman meet Scooby Doo.

  37. [If it becomes 50-50, may I suggest a news story for the hacks:

    “Gillard is desperately clinging on to her leadership as new polls reveal that the government are in a position to win in a landslide if they switch to Kevin Rudd. Current opinion polls are at 50-50 2PP (a result that cannot guarantee Labor would return to government at the next election) and could easily become 56-44 to Labor, if Rudd returned to the leadership. Former Labor Minister, Graham Richardson…” etc.]

    And if it keeps going, maybe we’ll start seeing a story that support for Gillard is ‘soft’ and confused, not like the guaranteed constant devotion of anyone who ever considers voting for Rudd. (Who would currently be on track to win the election 89-11 2PP) Or maybe just stories insulting the public for turning on the Coalition.

  39. [OMG, there is some crazy shit movie from Japan on World Movies called Yatterman – makes me think I did drop acid when I was younger but completely forgot about it.]

    My favourite in the crazy-ass Japanese movie genre is the 70s horror film House. Hilarious.

  40. [And if it keeps going, maybe we’ll start seeing a story that support for Gillard is ‘soft’ and confused, not like the guaranteed constant devotion of anyone who ever considers voting for Rudd. (Who would currently be on track to win the election 89-11 2PP) Or maybe just stories insulting the public for turning on the Coalition.]

    “The Coalition still leads on handling of asylum seekers. That will be the creeper issue that may decide government at the next election”

  41. george

    [OMG, there is some crazy shit movie from Japan on World Movies called Yatterman – makes me think I did drop acid when I was younger but completely forgot about it.

    It’s like Beetlejuice meets Batman meet Scooby Doo.]
    For those who wish to experience what George is going through start here.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96bb-H6QiyQ

  42. [“The Coalition still leads on handling of asylum seekers. That will be the creeper issue that may decide government at the next election”]

    “No election was ever decided on the economy.”

  43. Every election is decided on economic management, leadership and employment.

    Take your pick about who leads on those criteria.

  44. Greensborough Growler

    [Every election is decided on economic management, leadership and employment.

    Take your pick about who leads on those criteria.]
    True.I am surprised that I have not heard mention of “The hip pocket nerve” for so long. That has always been king.Has it a new name these days ?

  48. Part of me thinks QANTAS and Interest Rates have pushed things back the ALP’s way, but I guess we should see what happens with the other polls do before we jump to conclusions.

  49. confessions

    [Has it a new name these days ?

    Carbon tax compensation.]
    True and add to that the tax and Super changes. All locked directly into the hip pocket nerve. I just wonder why the term has fallen into disuse. It still be accurate. Tones will find a Hip Pocket Nervectomy that he promises will be as appealing as a dental chck up from Dr. Christian Szell.

  50. I don’t know about the accuracy of the Morgan Poll, but it does look like there’s a definite trend back to the ALP.

    The only clue I had that something was up was the scattergun approach the Liberals were taking this week. They were criticising anything and everything, often in the course of the same presser – and RUDDSTORATION has come flying back this week, which is a big indicator. They’re looking for an angle that’ll stick, I reckon. Their internal polling is probably telling them the same thing we’re picking up.

    If I was a little more suspicious, I’d be having a big look at this Qantas saga and wondering whether it was a desperate attempt to get the Coalition back on the front foot.

    What I’m looking forward most to is the end of Abbott demanding an immediate election. I bet he won’t be nearly as keen on that now there’s a prospect he might lose it.

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