Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition phone poll, 56-44 face-to-face

Roy Morgan has released two sets of poll results, one from its regular weekend face-to-face polling with 856 respondents, the other conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from only 525 respondents, but using far more reliable phone polling methodology. Bearing in mind that the latter has a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent, it’s the best result Labor has had in a phone poll since May: their primary vote is at 34 per cent with the Coalition on 45 per cent and the Greens on 12.5 per cent. Applying Morgan’s headline two-party figure derived by asking minor party and independent voters how they would direct their preferences, the Coalition holds a modest lead of 51.5-48.5: however, the more reliable method of allocating preferences as per the result of the previous election has it at 52.5-47.5.

The phone poll was also used to gauge opinion on the Qantas dispute and Australian involvement in Afghanistan. The former is the first polling to emerge on this issue since the events of last weekend, and it finds respondents more inclined to blame management (56 per cent) than unions (42 per cent) for the shutdown, with 61 per cent disapproving of the decision to do so against 35 per cent who approve. However, 64 per cent are willing to sign on to the idea that “the federal government should have acted sooner”, whatever the ambiguities involved with such an assertion, an idea opposed by 32 per cent. The figures on Afghanistan show a remarkable reversal since Morgan last asked the question in early May, support for withdrawal going from 40 per cent 72 per cent with opposition down from 54 per cent to 21 per cent. However, the earlier result was at odds with the findings of an Essential Research poll conducted at the same time which had 56 per cent supporting withdrawal. Essential Research has had support for withdrawal progressing from 47 per cent last October to 56 per cent in May to 64 per cent in late August.

The results of the face-to-face poll have Labor on 34 per cent (down one on the previous week), the Coalition on 46.5 per cent (down three) and the Greens recording their highest rating in nearly a year with 13.5 per cent (up three). The two-party results present the usual confused picture: on respondent-allocated preferences the Coalition leads 56-44 (56.5-43.5 in the previous week), with minor party and independent preferences splitting about 50-50 – typical of recent Morgan face-to-face polling, but quite unlike any election result of recent history. The Coalition’s lead on the previous election’s preferences are a much more modest 53-47, compared with 54.5-45.5 last time.

UPDATE: The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor up a point to 35 per cent, the Coalition down one to 46 per cent and the Greens down one to 9 per cent. Two-party preferred has also edged a point in Labor’s favour, from 55-45 to 54-46. This is Labor’s best result on two-party since June 14, and on the primary vote since May 16. It exactly replicates Morgan in finding 35 per cent approving of Qantas’s shutdown, but disapproval is 53 per cent rather than 61 per cent. A question on who is to blame substitutes “workers” for ”unions” and includes a “both equally” option: the results are 41 per cent management, 20 per cent workers and 31 per cent both. Respondents were also asked whether they approved or disapproved of various parties’ handling of the matter, with pretty much equally bad results for the government, opposition, management, workers (although here the “strongly disapprove” rating was relatively low), Alan Joyce and “union leaders”. Julia Gillard and the government recorded 30 per cent approval and 59 per cent disapproval, against 27 per cent and 45 per cent for Tony Abbott and the opposition. The one party that emerged favourably was Fair Work Australia, with 55 per cent and 21 per cent. There are also questions on media usage which point to an increasing use of the internet as a news source, but not to the extent that respondents would be willing to pay for the content (9 per cent say likely, 88 per cent unlikely).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,846 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition phone poll, 56-44 face-to-face”

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  1. So using the more reliable, and by most other pollsters preferred method of allocating preferences based on the previous election, both of these Morgan polls come out at 53 Coalition to 47 ALP TPP. Not a time to be popping the champagne corks yet, but if Tuesday’s Newspoll comes out the same, or even a bit better than their previous 54 to 46 TPP from a fortnight ago, then a trend back to the Government can be safely said to have occurred.

    Governments traditionally struggle mid term in the polls, but perhaps this time around the relentless negativity and frenzied doom-saying of the Abbott Opposition has caused that polling trough to occur early in the cycle for the Government, with some movement back towards the ALP now because some people have decided that all the trash talking and end-of-the-world rhetoric by Abbott and his far-from-merry men really is too much of a bad thing.

    If nothing else a movement back to something like 53 to 47 TPP across a few more polls will silence the ‘Rudd as Saviour’ crowd in the Murdoch Circus beating up stories out of nothing every time a Newspoll is imminent.

    As some of us have been saying for months, the Government embarked on this head down, move forward slowly approach last year, as they really didn’t have much choice, but it was, and remains the best way to optimise the chances of a Labor victory in 2013.

    Keep on keeping on, and let the progressive policies, once implemented, stand or fall on their level of public acceptance. Australians, despite their short term view and their generally conservative stance on most issues, are also still a nation prepared to give people, even politicians, a fair go, and if the dire predictions of the luddites and flat earthers in the Coalition don’t come to pass, as I believe they will not, then by 2013 the wheels will have fallen off Abbott’s little red wagon of ‘No’

  2. Carey, I think in the wake of the high court decision, Labor has made ground on AS. Certainly if the boats dont come flooding in with on shore processing, Abbott’s case gets weaker and weaker. As it does when the sky doesnt fall in with the CT or mining tax.

    I also think that he has overpromised. I am sure there are plenty of intelligence-challenged voters who expected him to overthrow the government, or at least stop the carbon tax. He is not delivering at all

  3. Andrew, I was just picking some random issue poll that the Coalition may hypothetically lead on (or the ALP not be leading by much) just to parody the news hacks cherry picking the polls to fit their narratives.

  5. [“The Coalition still leads on handling of asylum seekers. That will be the creeper issue that may decide government at the next election”]
    Let’s assume a trend back to the government for one minute, why would the asylum seeker issue be the issue at the next election if it isn’t the issue now?

  6. Spur,

    I don’t really care what the polls say, I base my view of the strategies being used. Abbott has been going “crash through or crash”. If that starts to falter I can’t see him recovering. Gillard has been doing a lot of groundwork, which has cost her short term, but she can recover.

    The polls can only measure what people think right now, they are no crystal ball about how the Gillard and Abbott strategies will pan out.

    A few more good polls would be useful to shut up all media BS though 🙂

  8. [The polls can only measure what people think right now, they are no crystal ball about how the Gillard and Abbott strategies will pan out.]
    True.

  9. [Every election is decided on economic management, leadership and employment.

    Take your pick about who leads on those criteria.]

    Except 2010.

  10. [Every election is decided on economic management, leadership and employment.

    Take your pick about who leads on those criteria.

    Except 2010.]
    I think it is arguable that 2010 was decided on leadership primarily but the other two played a supporting role.

  12. Keating’s comment 12 months ago will ring true for years to come.

    Abbott’s sole strategy was always, and remains, to force an election as soon as possible, no later than June 2012.

    He knows it. The Coalition know it.

    It’s up to the Government to keep it’s head down and be disciplined, like they have since July. If they change leaders, or continue leaks, then it’s their own fault and no one can help them.

    If June 2012 comes and goes without the calling of an election, Abbott simple won’t be there in 2013.

  13. Apsrt from IR the government has been pushing less directly but strongly the negative effects the QANTAS grounding has had on the economy and struggling sectors such as tourism. QANTAS and Joyce as “economic vandals ” with Abbott supporting the vandals.

    Martin Ferguson spoke about the effects on the tourism sector in QT this week and I am sure we will hear more about this.

    This could be a very positive point of attack for the government especially as the PM promised at the jobs summit to release a employment policy statement for the tourism industry before Christmas.

    IR and jobs strategy for affected sectors of the economy. THe government looking after the workers while Abbott sides with QANTAS.

    I am sure the PM will be sending a Christmas card to QANTAS this year.

  16. My feeling is that the coalition’s refusal to pass the govts amendments to the asylum-seeker legislation was one “no” too far and the criticism of the pokies legislation was about 10 “nos” too far coming so soon after.
    This could all still be washing through seeing as we don’t have an election in the near future to focus people’s minds.

  18. [doog on lateline

    winning]

    Yep. Am SO pleased Labor has unleashed Doogie to be its attack dog in the media. He is so good at it.

  24. gusface

    [doog talking about doogs

    Luv it]
    It be when he stops talking about the doogs and starts talking about his Droogs that ya gotta worry.

  25. [The only clue I had that something was up was the scattergun approach the Liberals were taking this week.]

    Of course, its just another version of focus grouping.. only on journos.

  27. poor Fibs:

    [

    KempseyramblerKempseyrambler

    by Jsus1

    #DougCameron on #Lateline sounds like a throwback to the seventies !! Doesn’t he realise that decades have passed??

    7 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  30. Just caught the last 30 seconds of Lateline.

    What was that all about? More Libs talking up leadership change? Centrebet??

    Was there any substance to that interview that I missed out on?

  32. [My feeling is that the coalition’s refusal to pass the govts amendments to the asylum-seeker legislation was one “no” too far]

    I’d like to believe you, but so far I haven’t seen any direct evidence of the “ordinary voter” understanding clearly that a) the malaysia deal would have stopped the boats and b) that the malaysia deal required more legislation and c) abbott voted against that.

    I’d say a minority understood a), most understood b) and few know about c)

  36. Frank,

    Could it be Laurie Oakes is having an attack of conscience.. an omg wtf did I do? moment?

    [THE Business Council, normally sympathetic to the Coalition, did not hide its disapproval. Australia, it said, should act as a good global citizen and be prepared to support the IMF as it did in the 1990s during the Asian financial crisis.

    John Howard and Peter Costello would have recoiled in horror at the sight of Abbott and Hockey going feral over the IMF.

    The issue that prompted Abbott to squeal about the Government being feral was industrial relations.

    In the debate over Qantas grounding its fleet and stranding tens of thousands of passengers, Julia Gillard gave the Opposition Leader a dose of his own medicine.

    The incident demonstrated yet again Abbott’s inconsistency and lack of policy on industrial relations, something that is opening up divisions inside the Coalition.]

    gold 🙂

  37. cud chewer

    Frank,

    Could it be Laurie Oakes is having an attack of conscience.. an omg wtf did I do? moment?]
    Nah more like “Well I made shed loads of loot from doing that and now I can make shed loads doing the other.”

  38. From the Laura Tingle article:

    [Remembering Gillard at a press conference on Monday, sheet white with exhaustion, you have to respect her dogged attempts to hold a minority government together despite the best efforts of some of the boys around her with hearts the size of a pea.]

  40. [I’ve got a corker of a graphic coming]

    I’ve already had my mental stability fractured this week by one of your graphics, thank you very much.

  41. Again I agree Big Ship.

    I think AS is blown out of all proportion, I blame the Libs for that, and the reason I blame them is because they have profited votes from it. But now they are looking a bit hollow.

    Unfortunately, there is a small (but significant enough) proportion of the electorate who allow themselves to be swayed by their own prejudice (this minority exists in every society). Howard tried to tap into it for years, and finally came across a strategy that seduced the xenophobes while not offending the rest of his vote after 9/11.

    It would be great if it wasn’t politicised, like the death penalty, but unfortunately it is. Cynically I think the Malaysian approach is better than Nauru if you want to stop boats, but even if enough xenophobes think “a pox on both their houses” and realise Abbot is a hypocrit, then that is as good as a win for the ALP.

  42. [I’ve already had my mental stability fractured this week by one of your graphics, thank you very much.]

    No miniskirts in site… promise!

  48. cud chewer

    [I’d like to believe you, but so far I haven’t seen any direct evidence of the “ordinary voter” understanding clearly that a) the malaysia deal would have stopped the boats and b) that the malaysia deal required more legislation and c) abbott voted against that.

    I’d say a minority understood a), most understood b) and few know about c)]

    The spin never stops on Poll Bludger apparently. On my machine in the laundry at home it stops after about 3 minutes.

    What “ordinary voter” understanding’?
    The majority of voters (both “ordinary” and I assume, ‘special’) want onshore processing according the best polling on the issue, as posted by William recently. Link on right “Of Boats and Votes”.

    Where did the assumption come from that the best policy is Abbott’s and now Labor’s “Stop The Boats!” -Answer came: from Abbott and now Labor.

    Those of us favouring the moral and legal course for government policy do not favour that course. The only people who do are those who support Pauline Hansen, or those who covet Pauline Hansen supporters.

    And where is the direct evidence that the Malaysia deal did or would “Stop the boats!”? Similarly, where is the evidence that Nauru did or would “Stop the boats!”?

    As John Menadue said this morning, our policy here has only a very marginal effect on the number of desperate people getting on boats in out direction.

    The first step towards good policy is to cease self-delusion. Either you admit you have a policy that panders to racists or you do the right thing. Such honesty would prevent the slide we have been watching because it would be unacceptable to admit to it. Trying to pretend the policy is not a racist sop leads to where both major parties now are, with the government in the worse position because it at least used to be expected to be honest.

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