Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition phone poll, 56-44 face-to-face

Roy Morgan has released two sets of poll results, one from its regular weekend face-to-face polling with 856 respondents, the other conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from only 525 respondents, but using far more reliable phone polling methodology. Bearing in mind that the latter has a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent, it’s the best result Labor has had in a phone poll since May: their primary vote is at 34 per cent with the Coalition on 45 per cent and the Greens on 12.5 per cent. Applying Morgan’s headline two-party figure derived by asking minor party and independent voters how they would direct their preferences, the Coalition holds a modest lead of 51.5-48.5: however, the more reliable method of allocating preferences as per the result of the previous election has it at 52.5-47.5.

The phone poll was also used to gauge opinion on the Qantas dispute and Australian involvement in Afghanistan. The former is the first polling to emerge on this issue since the events of last weekend, and it finds respondents more inclined to blame management (56 per cent) than unions (42 per cent) for the shutdown, with 61 per cent disapproving of the decision to do so against 35 per cent who approve. However, 64 per cent are willing to sign on to the idea that “the federal government should have acted sooner”, whatever the ambiguities involved with such an assertion, an idea opposed by 32 per cent. The figures on Afghanistan show a remarkable reversal since Morgan last asked the question in early May, support for withdrawal going from 40 per cent 72 per cent with opposition down from 54 per cent to 21 per cent. However, the earlier result was at odds with the findings of an Essential Research poll conducted at the same time which had 56 per cent supporting withdrawal. Essential Research has had support for withdrawal progressing from 47 per cent last October to 56 per cent in May to 64 per cent in late August.

The results of the face-to-face poll have Labor on 34 per cent (down one on the previous week), the Coalition on 46.5 per cent (down three) and the Greens recording their highest rating in nearly a year with 13.5 per cent (up three). The two-party results present the usual confused picture: on respondent-allocated preferences the Coalition leads 56-44 (56.5-43.5 in the previous week), with minor party and independent preferences splitting about 50-50 – typical of recent Morgan face-to-face polling, but quite unlike any election result of recent history. The Coalition’s lead on the previous election’s preferences are a much more modest 53-47, compared with 54.5-45.5 last time.

UPDATE: The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor up a point to 35 per cent, the Coalition down one to 46 per cent and the Greens down one to 9 per cent. Two-party preferred has also edged a point in Labor’s favour, from 55-45 to 54-46. This is Labor’s best result on two-party since June 14, and on the primary vote since May 16. It exactly replicates Morgan in finding 35 per cent approving of Qantas’s shutdown, but disapproval is 53 per cent rather than 61 per cent. A question on who is to blame substitutes “workers” for ”unions” and includes a “both equally” option: the results are 41 per cent management, 20 per cent workers and 31 per cent both. Respondents were also asked whether they approved or disapproved of various parties’ handling of the matter, with pretty much equally bad results for the government, opposition, management, workers (although here the “strongly disapprove” rating was relatively low), Alan Joyce and “union leaders”. Julia Gillard and the government recorded 30 per cent approval and 59 per cent disapproval, against 27 per cent and 45 per cent for Tony Abbott and the opposition. The one party that emerged favourably was Fair Work Australia, with 55 per cent and 21 per cent. There are also questions on media usage which point to an increasing use of the internet as a news source, but not to the extent that respondents would be willing to pay for the content (9 per cent say likely, 88 per cent unlikely).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,846 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition phone poll, 56-44 face-to-face”

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  1. [The first step towards good policy is to cease self-delusion. Either you admit you have a policy that panders to racists or you do the right thing. ]

    Trolling twaddle.

    I supported the Malaysia deal for reasons I explained quite plainly. Am I racist? If you think so, then I invite you to link to examples of racist comments posted here by me.

  4. Tobe
    [Sorry Think Big… in 91 I was agreeing with you… (but I also usually agree with Big Ship ]

    That’s OK – happy to be associated with Big Ship!

    The fact that we haven’t seen much of Morrison on the TV since the govt reverted to on-shore processing (even though there have been a few arrivals) might suggest the Libs focus groups are telling them the issue isn’t cutting through any more. Lets hope so anyway.

  5. [I note in Laurie’s article he just assumes Tone will be the next PM.]

    A lot of these journos are having trouble adjusting. I think its because there’s been so much effort on the polls > editorials > polls feedback cycle, and that they have trouble believing there’s still two years to an election.

  7. JV,

    The political side of the AS debate is about the small proportion of the electorate who will base their vote on the issue. And the Libs have been successfully “dog whistling” to them for the past decade.

    Otherwise the current reality is we have onshore processing. So be happy! Why not, just for the sake of your jaundice, start viewing the issue from the point of view of how the Libs will again profit from it?

  9. I read Laurie Oakes’ column as being very negative for Tone. It’s one thing for a supposed ‘serious’ paper like the OO to chip him over his populism, but for the tabloids to do so must mean he’s seriously overstepped the mark.

  13. confessions
    [Trolling twaddle.
    I supported the Malaysia deal for reasons I explained quite plainly. Am I racist? If you think so, then I invite you to link to examples of racist comments posted here by me.]

    No, it isn’t all about you, unless you are a racist. As is clear from my post I’m talking about the Labor leadership -and the LNP – which have asylum seeker policies pandering to racists of the Pauline Hansen persuasion. At least the Labor platform is non-racist. I’d be supporting that.

  14. confessions + jaundiced view

    Fact is when Kimbo rolled over all policies since then both Lib and Lab have been tailored towards racist @$#^ !’s

  16. [As is clear from my post I’m talking about the Labor leadership]

    Nonsense. Your comment states quite clearly that the Labor policy on AS is targetted at racists, and therefore anyone who supports it is themselves racist.

    It’s hard not to classify this kind of thinking alongside the intolerance and bigotry you ascribe to those whose views you disagree with.

  18. rishane

    Abbott as the next Prime Minister might be a foregone conclusion for all the media journalists atm, but there has been curve ball this week from left field that they did not anticipate. The Qantas dispute has brought IR into sharp focus, and the coalition have been found wanting. It has been a gamechanger.

  22. Pauline Hansen was originally a Liberal candidate no doubt inspired by Howards ant-Asian and anti-PC sentiments…

    BTW, “political correctness” was a derogatory term invented by a conservative US think tank to fight progressive sentiments such as women’s liberation and designed generally to give people an excuse not to be polite in their thinking…

  24. Tobe
    [The political side of the AS debate is about the small proportion of the electorate who will base their vote on the issue. And the Libs have been successfully “dog whistling” to them for the past decade.

    Otherwise the current reality is we have onshore processing. So be happy! Why not, just for the sake of your jaundice, start viewing the issue from the point of view of how the Libs will again profit from it?]
    Yes, quite true – don’t get me wrong – I’ve been very happy ever since the High Court judgment in M70, and even more since the victory of the 3 against the 147, for the sake of the innocent asylum seekers arrivng by boat, as you say.

    My initial comment may have been against he PB Rightariat themes, but it was in reaction to spin pushing wholly incorrect assumptions about terrible policy. I find it offensive when party defenders do that because the AS policy (of both majors) is based on pandering to racist xenophobes.

    Goebbels (not risking the basic blog Rule I don’t think) would be proud of some party propagandists who use the new media to generate ‘truths’ against fact. Example: it’s all about ‘saving lives’ as Abbott posited, for Labor to take up. Absolute crap. Desperate people will do anything to get away from murder, especially get on a leaky boat with a mere 4% chance of drowning. Who are we to judge them or those who help them?

  25. http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201111040922dowjonesdjonline000394&title=germany-merkel-g-20-has-not-yet-reached-decision-on-imf-resources

    [Germany Merkel: G-20 Has Not Yet Reached Decision On IMF Resources

    CANNES, France -(Dow Jones)- German Chancellor Angela Merkel Friday conceded that the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations reached no agreement on how the International Monetary Fund could assist in resolving the euro-zone debt crisis.

    Merkel also acknowledged that no G-20 country has committed itself to investing in the European Financial Stability Facility, the euro-zone bailout fund. She indicated the G-20 leaders agreed in principle that the IMF and the EFSF could work together, but how they would do so is still unclear.

    “In the next period we will work out the guidelines for the EFSF and then all IMF members are invited to voluntarily participate [in the EFSF] in a way that is appropriate for them. And so I think we have an interesting process ahead of us and the discussion is not yet concluded. There are hardly any countries that have said already they will cooperate with the EFSF. Several have made inquiries and I think it will depend on the guidelines,” Merkel said.

    Merkel also said the G-20 had adopted a list of 29 systemically relevant banks, including two German banks–Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG. She said progress had been made in regulating shadow banks, but gave no details. ]

  26. [rishane

    Abbott as the next Prime Minister might be a foregone conclusion for all the media journalists atm, but there has been curve ball this week from left field that they did not anticipate. The Qantas dispute has brought IR into sharp focus, and the coalition have been found wanting. It has been a gamechanger.]

    I think so too. What’s gonna be interesting is if/when the media finally adjust to what’s happening.

  27. confessions
    [Your comment states quite clearly that the Labor policy on AS is targetted at racists, and therefore anyone who supports it is themselves racist.]
    My coment states quite clearly that the Labor and Lib policies pander to racists. That’s all. No more. The ‘therefore’ whatever it may be, is entirely up to you to infer, depending on your bent. The parties did it to try to garner the Hansen vote. THey are now trying to outdo each other on it.

    [It’s hard not to classify this kind of thinking alongside the intolerance and bigotry you ascribe to those whose views you disagree with.]
    To whom did I ascribe bigotry?
    I support the Labor platform on AS’s. I disagree with LNP policy, and the Howard policies pandering to racists of the Hansen demographic. I also disagree with the current Labor leadership pandering to racists with their policy. How is that ‘intolerance’ and ‘bigotry’ exactly?

  28. I actually agree with you philosophically JV, so no stress. But as one of my failings happens to be middle class British whodunits, I can’t help but go back to motive. I think the ALP role in this tawdry saga is reactive… the Libs proactive… and that’s where I place the blame… to those who profit from the crime. I blame Howard. He really did seem to spend a large chunk of his political career trying to figure out how to get the xenophobe vote…

    BTW Hansen was briefly a Lib MP… not just a candidate as I previously suggested.

  29. This promises to give us more Coalition idiocy when officially announced in Parliament:

    [PRIME Minister Julia Gillard has met Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the sidelines of the G20 summit in France.

    Ms Gillard invited Mr Singh to visit Australia, after discussing trade and growing co-operation in the areas of science and technology.

    Mr Singh was due to visit Australia for the recently concluded Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting and make an extended visit to other cities, but his trip was unexpectedly cancelled.

    Ms Gillard briefed Mr Singh on the carbon pricing package, which is set to pass the Australian parliament by the end of the year, with a fixed price to start in mid-2012 followed by an emissions trading scheme in 2015.

    The prime minister also met German Chancellor Angela Merkel and invited her to visit Australia.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/gillard-meets-with-indian-prime-minister/story-e6freuyi-1226186292764

  30. [NichollsJohnJohn Nicholls

    Perth’s got a sign. RT @6PR: Australia is to host the G20 summit in 2014. No decision has been made on which Aussie city will host the G20.

    8 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

    Go Julia : – )

  32. [128

    Tobe

    Posted Saturday, November 5, 2011 at 1:02 am | Permalink

    I actually agree with you philosophically JV, so no stress. But as one of my failings happens to be middle class British whodunits, I can’t help but go back to motive. I think the ALP role in this tawdry saga is reactive… the Libs proactive… and that’s where I place the blame… to those who profit from the crime. I blame Howard. He really did seem to spend a large chunk of his political career trying to figure out how to get the xenophobe vote…

    BTW Hansen was briefly a Lib MP… not just a candidate as I previously suggested.
    ]

    She was a candidate – but she was diendorsed during the Election Campaign but it was too late to reprint the Ballot Papers.

  34. First discovery in the big room of PB mirrors tonight:
    Because I criticise the policies of the major parties pandering to racist xenpohobes in marginal seats, I am an intolerant bigot. (despite onshore processing being Labor policy)

    Who needs Coney Island? 😀

  38. [Because I criticise the policies of the major parties pandering to racist xenpohobes in marginal seats, I am an intolerant bigot]

    No, that’s not what I said. Try again.

  40. [confessions

    Posted Saturday, November 5, 2011 at 1:11 am | Permalink

    Frank:

    I thought she was elected as Lib MP.
    ]

    She was disendorsed part way throgh the campagn after the close of nominations – thus it was to late to change verything.

  41. Tobe
    [I think the ALP role in this tawdry saga is reactive… the Libs proactive… and that’s where I place the blame… to those who profit from the crime. I blame Howard. He really did seem to spend a large chunk of his political career trying to figure out how to get the xenophobe vote…]
    Yes Howard made it into something else, but that is no excuse whatsoever for Labor in 2011 to be out-cruelling the Libs all this time later. There is no electoral imperative other than the Lindsay test, when the best polling has a majority – even after 10 big years of demonisation of boat people – in favour of onshore processing. Otherwise, why? Yet again, where is the leadership from the moral compass?

  45. confessions
    Your vague-isms suggest you accept be default the point that a person such as myself criticising party policy seeking a racist demographic is not an ‘intolerant bigot’?

  46. confessions
    You have accused me of trolling; of being intolerant; and a bigot, because I criticised the big party policies. I did not call you a racist, or anything else at all. Why are you so aggressive?

  47. JV, I have this pragmatic “thing” that just keeps eating me. It keeps saying “that if you are going to change the world (unrealistic but I hope you know what I mean) then every now and again you have to be the party in power”.

    As much as I would fancy the heroics of fighting Howards success on demonising AS, I would also like a carbon price, NBN, a few more school halls etc… etc… and since xenophobes will throw their vote around without much thought I don’t see why they should be allowed to wreck everything.

  48. Breaking News: Italy refuses IMF financial support: Prime Minister Berlusconi

    This is very difficult to believe…..Italy cannot borrow in the private market and the ECB has no legal mandate to lend to Italy. Italy is broke. The Italian industrial sector is imploding. The Berlusconi Government is barely intact. The 10 year bond rate is at crippling levels….and yet the IMF is rejected….just unbelievable.

  49. Tobe
    Yes, some pragmatism is an element in politics, but wouldn’t you agree that the way to neutralise the boat issue was to bring them all onshore iin 2007? ‘Some pragmatism’ doesn’t mean caving in completely to the worst elements in society. It was also unecessary. Remember the polling, even now, after so much vitriol against boats.

    By the way, I must temper your enthusiasm for the government ‘achievements’. The policies you mention – apart from the NBN which I think either major party would have gone with (forget opposition no-ism) because it’s esssential economically – remember that the carbon thingie is only happening this term, and only as wonderfully, because of the non-Labor elements of the minority government; the ‘school halls’ funding is an indescriminate obscenity merely increasing the wealth of the private against the public schools, a Howard rort which Labor has been too timid to address (Gillard’s major policy failure).

  50. confessions
    At the end of the day we are judged by our actions, not our motives. If you support (or fail to oppose) actions which are racist, or opposed to free speech, or unfair then you must accept at least some large part of the stigma that goes with those actions.

    Many in Nazi Germany started out as socialist (real ones looking for equality etc). Gradually the NazI party became more nationalist than socialist and while many left (or were arrested) others rationalised their continuing support on many grounds – economics, national security, national pride.

    I suspect you would find very few of the Nazis or even the SS started out as racist bigots. However as the national mood changes and the party they supported became more racist they either themselves became racist or find some justification for ignoring racism on other grounds – this is human nature but we must always in politics be aware how our belief systems are changing or being changed, often without noticing it.

    Of course on it is easy for a government or group to wrap racism up as “national security” which turns many a normal person into a racist xenophobe. Sadly in much of the asylum seeker debate I see this “security stuff getting a run ,along with many of the justifications for racism. I think you would have found many a German who sincerely believed that Jewish people were sent to Auschwitz for their own safety.

    As intelligent politically aware adults it is our moral responsibility to always challenge our belief systems and [policy reactions to ensure that they are not hypocritical and distorted.

    As general rule I think it sensible in matters of race to mentally assess reaction if the people affected were a) White Aussies – and it was happening say in China, B) Jewish people because it focuses us on really horrific events, C) white south Africans. D) Irish Catholics. If you still think that any action stands up then you are probably on the right track. If however it would not work for any of the above then you may be consciously or unconsciously racist.

    So on the whole Malaysia thing, If you would be happy for a boat load of Jewish people from say Russia, White South Africans or Irish Catholic (say oppressed by Ulstermen) to wait it out for 5 years in Malaysia then you are NOT racist. Otherwise you probably are unconsciously at least.

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