Roy Morgan has released two sets of poll results, one from its regular weekend face-to-face polling with 856 respondents, the other conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from only 525 respondents, but using far more reliable phone polling methodology. Bearing in mind that the latter has a margin of error approaching 4.5 per cent, it’s the best result Labor has had in a phone poll since May: their primary vote is at 34 per cent with the Coalition on 45 per cent and the Greens on 12.5 per cent. Applying Morgan’s headline two-party figure derived by asking minor party and independent voters how they would direct their preferences, the Coalition holds a modest lead of 51.5-48.5: however, the more reliable method of allocating preferences as per the result of the previous election has it at 52.5-47.5.
The phone poll was also used to gauge opinion on the Qantas dispute and Australian involvement in Afghanistan. The former is the first polling to emerge on this issue since the events of last weekend, and it finds respondents more inclined to blame management (56 per cent) than unions (42 per cent) for the shutdown, with 61 per cent disapproving of the decision to do so against 35 per cent who approve. However, 64 per cent are willing to sign on to the idea that “the federal government should have acted sooner”, whatever the ambiguities involved with such an assertion, an idea opposed by 32 per cent. The figures on Afghanistan show a remarkable reversal since Morgan last asked the question in early May, support for withdrawal going from 40 per cent 72 per cent with opposition down from 54 per cent to 21 per cent. However, the earlier result was at odds with the findings of an Essential Research poll conducted at the same time which had 56 per cent supporting withdrawal. Essential Research has had support for withdrawal progressing from 47 per cent last October to 56 per cent in May to 64 per cent in late August.
The results of the face-to-face poll have Labor on 34 per cent (down one on the previous week), the Coalition on 46.5 per cent (down three) and the Greens recording their highest rating in nearly a year with 13.5 per cent (up three). The two-party results present the usual confused picture: on respondent-allocated preferences the Coalition leads 56-44 (56.5-43.5 in the previous week), with minor party and independent preferences splitting about 50-50 – typical of recent Morgan face-to-face polling, but quite unlike any election result of recent history. The Coalition’s lead on the previous election’s preferences are a much more modest 53-47, compared with 54.5-45.5 last time.
UPDATE: The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor up a point to 35 per cent, the Coalition down one to 46 per cent and the Greens down one to 9 per cent. Two-party preferred has also edged a point in Labor’s favour, from 55-45 to 54-46. This is Labor’s best result on two-party since June 14, and on the primary vote since May 16. It exactly replicates Morgan in finding 35 per cent approving of Qantas’s shutdown, but disapproval is 53 per cent rather than 61 per cent. A question on who is to blame substitutes “workers” for ”unions” and includes a “both equally” option: the results are 41 per cent management, 20 per cent workers and 31 per cent both. Respondents were also asked whether they approved or disapproved of various parties’ handling of the matter, with pretty much equally bad results for the government, opposition, management, workers (although here the “strongly disapprove” rating was relatively low), Alan Joyce and “union leaders”. Julia Gillard and the government recorded 30 per cent approval and 59 per cent disapproval, against 27 per cent and 45 per cent for Tony Abbott and the opposition. The one party that emerged favourably was Fair Work Australia, with 55 per cent and 21 per cent. There are also questions on media usage which point to an increasing use of the internet as a news source, but not to the extent that respondents would be willing to pay for the content (9 per cent say likely, 88 per cent unlikely).
Peter van Onselon on twitter, moments ago:
[“Abbott’s negativity is catching up with him…..he better be careful lest momentum continues to shift.”]
lets just say PvO has seen Newspoll 🙂
Frank:
I thought Ghostie said there was no Newspoll this weekend?
Night bk
The poll will still respect me in the morning. ‘Night all.
[lets just say PvO has seen Newspoll :-)]
Indeed.
2672
Claire Martin won 2 NT elections for the ALP and the ALP had not won any NT elections before.
The majority of elections in the ACT have been won by parties with female leaders.
The number of women premiers defeated is often put down to a “voters will be less likely to desert a party with a female leader” mindset is some state ALPs (mainly in the early 1990s).
Frank Calabrese
Either that or PVO is responding to qanda
PvO comments referring to Abbott’s approval/PPM perhaps?
Night ducky
THE COOGEE CHEMICAL SAGA:
10th instalment
So, who did Coogee Resources sell to?
PPTEP – a Thai-based company. But unfortunately for PPTEP they kept Coogee’s management team and staff
http://www.smh.com.au/business/cashstrapped-eden-energy-finds-a-lifeline-20081226-75k9.html
The Senate stands adjourned until 10am tomorrow….and one of the great victories of a Labor Govt, more so as a Govt that has withstood a media and public assault beyond any before it, to pass one of the greatest pieces of legislation in the countries history, will become law.
All who respect the planet we live on, who respect the future of our children and grandchildren who have withstood the ignorant attack by an Opposition only intent on winning power, should join together in aclaiming the Julia Gillard led Labor Govt, the Independents, The Greens in playing our part to save our world.
I am proud tonight but will be 100% more proud tomorrow.
Thankyou Julia for being brave and strong enough to see it through (and thanks Greg Combet you are awesum)
kezza:
You should organise your findings into a post for Frank’s blog.
[confessions
Posted Monday, November 7, 2011 at 10:42 pm | Permalink
Frank:
I thought Ghostie said there was no Newspoll this weekend?]
Really?
What am I staying up for then- to watch the US Ambassador say how much he loves living in Australia????
Good night all.
victoria
thanks for your encouragement
Am trying to keep my head down and bum up to get this on the record.
And sorry if I sound mysterious in any way shape or form, it’s not the case. Just trying to put a logical case forward – with constant (21st party for the youngest) interruptions.
and keep hitting the wrong keys! duh!
david:
I have things to do tomorrow, but intend to be back in time to see the CEF bills pass the Senate, and into law. It’s high time this country priced GHGEs, some 4 years after labor won an election promising to do so.
Jessica Rudd is one very impressive young lady.
i thought ghost said on Friday that the newspoll was next week, ie this week
Andrew
That is my understanding.
Do we have a rough idea what time tomorrow the Carbon Tax vote will take place?
Me two, next, mmmmmm
Patience Andrew the Ghost will deliver, always does…why do you think most Coalition Senators were drunk tonight and couldn’t keep up, they know Abbott is toast. Their world of ‘right to rule’ is being demolished.
mexicanbeemer
I have no idea. Perhaps someone else does
Q&A seemed very pro Malcolm… how embarrassing was that guy who practically serenaded him?
“Oh Malcolm, you are such a statesman, with that lovely jacket, and that smile, I LOVE YOU, I WILL VOTE FOR YOU!”
Or something like that..
Re Lateline
_________
Do US Ambassadors attend a special course in niceness and bullshit .???..of course there is much evidence that when required they can unleash their team of trained killers that always stand close at hand
so remember that !
[Please… not another woman leader !!
__________________________
In this probably silly talk about Kate Ellis as a PM candidate one imagines the voters would respond with”Kate Who”
but The Iron Law of Australian politics always operates
NO WOMAN WINS >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
At the risk of being repeatious let me cite just a few names of defeated women leaders…..
Kirner(Vic) Premier
Lawrence(WA) Pemier
Kennelly(NSW) Premier
Redmond(SA OPPOS)
Kate Carnell l(ACT)
I know Bligh won last time,but she seems doomed now
and there was Labor woman in NT …but the NT isn’t a real place…just a small colonial dependency of the ACT..
All have in common that these woman in the Premier’s office were all swept out after a short term
Now the polls show a 62/32 male vote against Gillard….another disaster on the horizon
Woman leaders in Australia have proved interesting but a sure receipe for defeat….
.There IS a glass ceiling it seems]
Well well, this is a very telling post. It shall be remembered next time you get all high and mighty and try to pretend you’re progressive or more leftist, you sexist loser. You only want Rudd because he has a dick.
Other Ruddists need to denounce this because it is not a good look for your cause.
@vitalise/2724,
Sprucing him up for the Top Job for Opposition.
mexican beemer – Carbon vote has to be all over by noon.
Thanks Gweneth
THE COOGEE CHEMICAL SAGA:
11h instalment
There is some curious wordology regarding PTTEP’s acquisition of Coogee Resources stake in Monatara (the Timor sea oil fields)
“Coogee Resources has sold itself for $US171 million ($250 million) to a Thai oil company, PTT Exploration and Production”
http://www.smh.com.au/business/cashstrapped-eden-energy-finds-a-lifeline-20081226-75k9.html
because PTTEP bought the whole company for $250 million of which Coogee supposedly received $170 million. This means that Babcock and Brown’s stake was only worth $80 million. And that’s crap. Because Babcock and Brown received its initial investment (round $230 mill sorry can’t find the link au moment).
HOWEVER. four months after PTTEP’s acquisition of Coogee Resources, the Montara Spill happened.
Carey Moore:
IIRC deblonay also said Chifley voters would never elect a muslim candidate.
[Q&A seemed very pro Malcolm… how embarrassing was that guy who practically serenaded him?]
He gave it away in the first instance when he said he began life as a young lib.
[
voteglobalVoteGlobal
by Paul_MJ
RT @PublikunCZAR: Journalists close to Berlusconi say he will resign Monday http://cspin.us/w3Yhfk #politics #news #Italy #Italia
2 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply
voteglobalVoteGlobal
by Paul_MJ
RT @BreakingNews: #Italy PM Berlusconi says resignation rumors are unfounded; senior party member says PM denied he will resign @Reuters
3 minutes ago]
Having read Andrew Elder’s post tonight about Qantas stuff, it’s clear to me it’s that issue which has tipped Abbott’s leadership over the edge.
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/2011/11/lessons-from-qantas-shutdown.html
Abbott is gone, it’s just a question of when.
Final vote in the Senate tomorrow…
For those like me interested in when it will happen, after prelim normal procedural stuff, the Govt can move the closure of Committee proceedings whenever it wants to and after obviously a division, will report back and more divisions, will move the 3rd reading and will win the division as the Greens support the Govt…the Coalition depending on how stupid they want to look, can move various divisions which they will lose, so the time frame of the final vote is not predictable…I suspect we will get an indication of the Opposition tactics in the first hour…the end is nigh, the end is a done deal…wonderful.
Tuesday 8th November 2011 Senate Order of Business
Australian Renewable Energy Agency Bill 2011
Australian Renewable Energy Agency (Consequential Amendments and Transitional Provisions) Bill 2011
Personal Property Securities Amendment (Registration Commencement) Bill 2011
Classification (Publications, Films and Computer Games) Amendment (Online Games) Bill 2011
Higher Education Support Amendment Bill (No. 2) 2011
Thanks Gweneth & Victoria
A possible future Coalition & MSM meme is being built right in front of our eyes folks.
Malcolm is nice guy / he’s not that bad / he’s “progressive but “pro business”.
It’s a lie & it disgusts me. Only good thing is that it may not work, he was unpopular after being in the job for a while. One exception only is he is pro an ETS, but I think any future Lib PM will have to come around on this anyway.
Remember Malcolm as LOTO was pro private health, talked up boats & borders, tried to frame Rudd, and objected to IR changes. Faux progressive. The friendly face of the backrooms Reiths of Australian business & politics.
btw
twitter identified the elder fib plant as a failed nats candidate
dont the righties realise twitter haz long memories
Confessions…2731..re Chifley electorate resultg
______________________________________
You are making up lies …barefaced lies re my statements
I have never made the kind of statement you claim about Ed Husic…nor ever written anything about him at all on this or any other site
Please retract you lies !
mexican beemer- you are welcome!
[deblonay
Posted Monday, November 7, 2011 at 11:16 pm | Permalink
Confessions…2731..re Chifley electorate resultg
______________________________________
You are making up lies …barefaced lies re my statements
I have never made the kind of statement you claim about Ed Husic…nor ever written anything about him at all on this or any other site
Please retract you lies !
]
Hit a raw nerve have we ?
[my say
Posted Monday, November 7, 2011 at 10:35 pm | Permalink
Mr deblarny
Why not
U made the statement tell us why
I would love to see the high court all female , now that would be great]
Brilliant punning nickname for him, My Say.
Jessica Rudd and Kate Ellis rocked tonight on QANDA, so did Eddie Perfect.
You also get the distinct impression that Malcolm doesn’t like Abbott all that much.
Newspoll will be in the ballpark of 52-48?
deblonay your problem is noone knows exactly where you stand, perhaps if you were , like 99% of your fellow Bludgers, honest about where your loyalties lie. you woudn’t attract such comments.
Except this ‘point of differentiation’ he largely blew by voting against the CEF bills. When Turnbull had the chance to make a statement he chickened out – perhaps to make more ‘friends’ in the coalition, who knows, regardless he can hardly be seen to be principled in this area now.
deb
I think u have been confused with someone else.
re the point regarding female leaders
perhaps u worded your argument badly?
The OO seems to be implying that the tender was abandoned because News was gunna win:
[THE ABC will continue to run the Australia Network after the federal government cancelled the tender, citing leaks of confidential information to the media.
The tender process had already been delayed after a panel anointed Sky News the preferred bidder.]
THE COOGEE CHEMICAL SAGA:
12th instalment
Remember though that Coogee Resources management and staff were part of the deal and were running the company in Australasia.
The devastating Montara oil spill occurred four-five months after PTTEP took control of the company.
The clean up of $5 million totals more than was paid for the company.
And guess how much the Indonesian govt is claiming in compensation?
$2.5 billion.
Guess who is still on the PTTEP board? Gordon Martin of Coogee Chemicals
NO WONDER COOGEE CHEMICALS, AS PARENT COMPANY OF COOGEE RESOURCES, CAN’T AFFORD A CARBON TAX. There’s too much liability looming.
I doubt very much that the Thai company PTTEP is giving Gordon Martin much leeway, either way, considering he’s still listed as a director of PTTEP.
Indonesia has unofficially demanded Rp 23 trillion (US$ 2.5 billion) in compensation for the damage.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/01/03/govt-pttep-discuss-compensation-montara-oil-spill.html
deblonay:
I asked you directly about the muslim comments and you refused to answer. What can I therefore conclude?
If I’ve confused you with another commenter, then my apologies.
Carey Moore 2726..Re Rudd and Gillard
_______________
I find it amazing and wryly amusing that any statement of fact and truth sends you into a fit of abusive language….really childish stuff…a kind of juvenile tantrum !!
As for Rudd I have never on this blog made any claims for him…you know as I do that he was an egocentric control-freak who reduced the government to a state of crisis. and paralysis
Do I sound like an admirer ????
Has he improved ??
I certainly make no claim for that !
Get your facts straight
Personal Abuse is not actually a means of debate.