The Australian reports the latest Newspoll (the first in three weeks, following a break for the long weekend) has Labor recovering three points from their record low primary vote last time, but continuing to languish on 29 per cent. The Coalition also picked up a point on the primary vote, to 49 per cent, and maintains a two-party preferred lead of 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. The Greens have dropped a point to 12 per cent, with “others” taking most of the damage from the higher major party vote. The Prime Minister’s personal ratings remain dismally low, with approval up a point to 28 per cent and disapproval down one to 60 per cent. Tony Abbott is up slightly, by two points on approval to 36 per cent with disapproval down a point to 53 per cent. The preferred prime minister is unchanged with Abbott leading 40 per cent to 35 per cent. Newspoll has also has responses for best party to handle various issues: these have Labor going back on all measures since the question was last asked before the election, which is entirely predictable given the normal pattern of these responses following in the direction of voting intention.
This follows today’s Essential Research poll which had the Coalition lead steady at 55-45, from primary votes of 33 per cent for Labor and 48 per cent for the Coalition (both steady), and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Further questions suggest the public has trouble distinguishing between the four independents: those who back the government, Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie, all have approval ratings of 23 per cent or 24 per cent and disapproval ratings of between 32 per cent to 34 per cent. Bob Katter performs slightly better, with 27 per cent approval and 36 per cent disapproval. The broad hostility to the independents individually is reflected by the unpopularity of the balance of power arrangement overall. Only 22 per cent consider it to have been good for Australia – a substantial worsening since polls in the early part of the year, the more recent of which (on June 6) had it at 28 per cent. The bad rating is up from 39 per cent to 50 per cent.
Questions on poker machine reform suggest that while Clubs Australia’s grand finals advertising blitz may have had some impact, the public remains strongly in favour of mandatory pre-commitment on poker machines. The level of support is down to 61 per cent from 67 per cent four weeks ago, which opposition up five points to 30 per cent. Respondents were also asked to nominate a figure which “reflects the social cost of problem gamblers in Australia”, and opponents seemed reluctant to do so: 42 per cent opted for don’t know compared with 25 per cent among supporters. Those that did name a figure tended to come in at well below the $4.7 billion indicated by the Productivity Commission, with options of $1 billion or lower chosen by 44 per cent ($100 million being the most favoured), compared with 9 per cent for $5 billion and 5 per cent for $10 billion. Once appraised of the Productivity Commission result, support for pokies reform returned roughly to the level it was at four weeks ago. Respondents were also advised that 2.7 per cent of poker machine revenue was invested into the community, and it seems that for some this was enough: support for reform then came down to 57 per cent, with opposition at 31 per cent.
Misha Schubert of the Sydney Morning Herald has also brought tidings of a Galaxy poll of the electorate of Melbourne which shows Greens incumbent Adam Bandt headed for an easy victory regardless of what the Liberals do with their preference recommendation. Bandt’s primary vote is at 44 per cent against 29 per cent for Labor and 23 per cent for the Liberals, which compares with respective results at last year’s election of 36.2 per cent, 38.1 per cent and 21.0 per cent. This would translate into a 65-35 win for Bandt if Liberal and other preferences were allocated as per the 2010 election result: an anti-Labor swing of 9 per cent in Labor-versus-Greens. We are told that if the Liberals put Labor ahead of the Greens on their preference recommendation, as they did to such devastating effect at the Victorian state election, Bandt would still emerge 56-44 in front – exactly the result he achieved at the election. This result appears to have been arrived at by splitting Liberal preferences 60-40 in Labor’s favour rather than the usual 80-20, which seems soundly based on results from the state election. The poll was conducted two weeks ago from an unspecified sample size, and I’m guessing was conducted for a corporate or peak body client (UPDATE: It’s been pointed out to me that the article notes it was conducted for the Greens).
our lack of awareness = your lack of awareness
Confessions @ 185
[ I’ve asked before and gotten no answer, so may as well ask again: Why do people think that what happens in shockjock land in any way represents what is happening in the real world?
]
I don’t know about how closely Shock-Jock-Land “represents” reality, but shock-jocks’ comments are often given added influence by being widely reported -‘promoted’ is perhaps more accurate- in the MSM. Maybe this is a partial answer to your question.
Oh dear…..looks as if Alan Kohler’s got a nasty dose of Grattanitis….
” Whatever one thinks of what this government is doing, there is plenty of action. But the near certainty that most of it will be undone by the next mob is uniquely unsettling. Or will it actually be undone? Who knows?”
http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/betting-canberra-question-marks?utm_source=Climate%20Spectator&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ebbae3c7cf-CSPEC_DAILY
[I think that the shock jocks actual influence is quite restricted, except where they get picked up by other media and the media makes the media the story. ]
Ray Hadley’s job on the BER comes to mind. But apart from that their daily rantings are confined to the people who actually listen to them.
[Others just seem to love listening to them just to be outraged by what they say.]
By far the funniest thing I’ve seen is a few weeks ago leading into a community cabinet meeting. The 2GB shockjock was all aflutter about it, mistaking it for a Cabinet meeting, and hyperventilating that the PM was about to be rolled. Of course all this was breathlessly reported here by PB’s own regular 2GB listener.
Imagine how crestfallen they were to learn the shockjock didn’t know the difference between a Community Cabinet meeting and a Cabinet meeting! 😆
[geeksrulz GeeksOccupyTweetWay
by mrumens
Tony Abbott: “I will give the remainder of my political life, however long I have left, to beating the carbon tax.” #auspol 🙂
33 minutes ago
in reply to ↑
Space Kidette
@SpaceKidette Space Kidette
@geeksrulz Tick, tick, tick…
]
Ozymandias:
When Tony Abbott held a press conference to rail about asylum seekers being given cigarettes (‘stop the boats to stop the smokes’), a 2GB/Daily Telegraph fluff non-story, he looked like a shrill, vacuous fool. Nobody outside Sydney would’ve had a clue what he was raving about.
[SpaceKidette Space Kidette
@
@GrogsGamut @champagnesocial Why is there a question about Interest Rates. The govt doesn’t manage interest rates.
11 minutes ago
in reply to ↑
Stephen Koukoulas
@TheKouk Stephen Koukoulas
@SpaceKidette @GrogsGamut @champagnesocial The independent RBA is the custodian of interest rates & they move them without fear or favour
6 minutes ago via web Favorite Retweet Reply
replies ↓
»
Space Kidette
SpaceKidette Space Kidette
@
@TheKouk @GrogsGamut @champagnesocial Yep, so why would Newspoll include Management of Interest Rates as a poll question?
GrogsGamut Greg Jericho
@SpaceKidette @TheKouk because newspoll is purely about providing stuff to write stories about and thus sell newspapers
]
[TheKouk Stephen Koukoulas
@
@SpaceKidette @GrogsGamut @champagnesocial And FWIW, the current cash rate at 4.75% is 2 pctage pts lower than in Nov 2007
]
[ miffed
Posted Tuesday, October 11, 2011 at 9:18 am | Permalink
BK,
Clumsily?
Your comment was directed at catholics. Shall we put the comment up again????
As I said before please keep your sectarian views to yourself. If you can’t respect all religions then don’t comment]
Now miffed, he’s made a good act of contrition and the only Christian thing to do is to now forgive and move on.
Naturally BK has some penance to do, but his doing a couple of rosaries ought to fix that, don’tcha think?
confessions
[Ozymandias:
When Tony Abbott held a press conference to rail about asylum seekers being given cigarettes (‘stop the boats to stop the smokes’),]
I saw footage of it on The Insiders. He gave his line and stood their with a shit eating grin for quite some time. It looked like he was waiting for some applause. One of the guests on the Insiders summed it up well. She said TA’s look was the same look her three year old has when the kid thinks they’ve been clever.
OPT @156
Alex Jones is not even remotely “new”. He’s been a radio host and been making “documentaries” since the mid 90’s, and markets them through infowars.com and its sister site prisonplanet.com. The titles of the websites give you some sort of idea of where he’s coming from.
Some his “documentaries” include:
America: Destroyed By Design (1998)
Police State (2000)
Police State II – The Takeover (2000)
Police State III – Total Enslavement (2003)
Ploice State IV – The Rise Of FEMA (2010)
Martial Law 9/11 – The Rise Of The Police State (2005) (Are you starting to see a pattern developing here :wink:)
The Obama Deception: The Mask Comes Off (2009)
Mr Jones (perhaps related to our very own Parrot ?), also served as Executive Producer on the mother of all 9/11 “truth” movies, “Loose Change”.
If you like X-Files/Twilight Zone style shows, then his “docos” are very entertaining. Grab some popcorn and enjoy.
If you take them seriously though…….. 🙁
Some info on the man himself:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Jones_%28radio_host%29
Looks like Alex Jones is trying to make as many Police State “documentaries” as there were Police Academy “movies”
Malcolm Turnbull not listed to debate carbon tax story
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/malcolm-turnbull-not-listed-to-debate-carbon-tax/story-e6frf7jx-1226163702370
[She said TA’s look was the same look her three year old has when the kid thinks they’ve been clever.]
Nice one.
The Police State franchise is a lot funnier than the Academy series 😆
A most unimpressive speech by the Nats’ George Christensen on the CT debate.
The stereotypical Nat.
Frankly, if he cant integrate with our multicultural society, which values our indigenous countrymen and women as the oldest surviving human culture in the world, then that Dutch bastard Bolt should go home!
[” Whatever one thinks of what this government is doing, there is plenty of action. But the near certainty that most of it will be undone by the next mob is uniquely unsettling. Or will it actually be undone? Who knows?”]
markjs – I’ll take a bet with Kohler that the NBN won’t be undone in any major way. The carbon tax will be dropped but the ETS part of the policy will be brought forward and the policy renamed. The mining tax will be retained as well but called prettied over and sold to the punters as being necessary because Labor stuffed up the economy.
Whatever else Labor is or has done will be trashed but retained, reworked, reworded and sold as wonderful and only something a Coalition Govt. could do.
Add to that – nuclear power will be in the mix pretty quickly.
BK
[A most unimpressive speech by the Nats’ George Christensen on the CT debate.
The stereotypical Nat.]
Do we know when HoJo is due to speak ? It should provide the CP legislation laugh ration for the day.
Can’t help you there poroti.
[The abc breakfast show ran their commentary this morning on the basis of this fallacy.]
The faster the gov cleans out the ABC and returns it to its Charter, the better. No way there’s an excuse for that sort of deliberative misrepresentation. There may be an iota of one for being too slack to check 1941, where the Budget Reduction (?by a half-penny) trigger was threatened/ used; but none for not checking how Whitlam was sacked.
All that once mattered to MSM were ratings/ ‘unique hits’/ circulation & ad revenue. Now there’s an inferred threat of 2 media inquiries that, as far as the MSM (inc ABC) are concerned, need to be shut down, esp before UK Parliamentary & other Inquiries are back on internationally accessible Live-streamed video.
Repeating the fallacy aids MSM ratings etc by creating long-term storylines, leading to more frustration (more rantings, stunts, protests etc) – fodder for shockjocks & the evening news. It also serves to drown-out government successes as legislation passes. There is yet another factor in the thick MSM smoke-screen: fallout over Libs Mary Jo Fisher & Sophie Mirabella. A Senator can be quietly convinced to resign & replaced by another Lib; an MP who’s likely to feature in a scandalous court case can’t.
Yet constant repetition of that fallacy and drowning out of government successes achieve nothing, as long as the Gov retains majority support in both Houses. Even if evidence can be found to try Thomson, even Libs admit he’ll stay in Parliament. In fact, Libs now hold little chance of winning government before 2013 (even Abbott is reported as admitting that), less of blunting the Gov’s main legislative agenda, and are worried that the AS “wedge” will “kill” off-shore processing. Behind rumours of a Liberal coup is a new worry: that Abbott’s failures will form a major strand of Labor’s 2013 election strategy – the positive “Look what we’ve achieved” to balance “Return of Workchoices” & other negative scare campaigns.
After Thursday, the HoR meets for Melbourne Cup sittings (31/10-3/11) and Nov 21-24 (with a possible extension 28-30/11). The Senate meets for Supplementary Budget business (17-20 Oct) and again is scheduled to meet (7-10 Nov). That’s it, until February 2012.
So, Abbott has 11 normal sitting days (maybe up to 15 if extra days include QT) left to roll the government in 2011. Unless he does, the next big item is Wilkie’s & Xenophon’s pokie-related legislation and the Budget.
Extraordinary!
I just watched ABC24 give the doorstop of the Member for Moreton (Merritt?) that he would resign his seat if there was a leadership coup ousting PM Gillard. Clear and unambiguous, including his reasons – that he was uncomfortable with what happened to Rudd and refused to go through such a situation again. He’d gone to the election with Gillard as leader and would not betray that trust.
ABC24 then showed quotes from two senior ministers allegedly putting down this claim. Albo said that he understood his intention – to put an end to this leadership talk nonsense – but his statement might have the opposite effect. Combet said that the government had far more important things to focus on such as the carbon pricing.
Then newsreader Joel wrapped up with wtte that that was the MP’s position for now.
“For now?” “For now?” WTF. The whole point of his statement was that it was NOT his position “for now”, it is his position while he remains an MP.
That is a total misrepresentation of his position. Perhaps it is an attempt to keep the leadership speculation issue alive for the media, but it couldn’t have been more misleading. Even my wife, a fairly apolitical person picked up the incongruity of the “for now” and she only heard it from the next room.
Somebody should tweet Jonathan Green or whoever’s in charge of news about it.
[When Tony Abbott held a press conference … he looked like a shrill, vacuous fool.]
Nothing new about that. Spin, slogans, stunts: The Hollow Man IS a shrill, vacuous fool.
[victoria
Posted Tuesday, October 11, 2011 at 10:44 am | Permalink
Malcolm Turnbull not listed to debate carbon tax story]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/malcolm-turnbull-not-listed-to-debate-carbon-tax/story-e6frf7jx-1226163702370
And he goes overseas and preaches to world leaders about climate change and does not have the courage to talk about this in the Australian Parliament. Also, remind me again about how passionate he was about the Republic and how he said that wtte JH broke the heart of the Nation.
What an absolute hypocrite and some Labor people here think that they can live with him as PM.
[Alex Jones is not even remotely “new”. He’s been a radio host and been making “documentaries” since the mid 90′s, and markets them through infowars.com and its sister site prisonplanet.com. The titles of the websites give you some sort of idea of where he’s coming from.]
Wow, sounds like a wanker.
[Mr Jones (perhaps related to our very own Parrot ?), also served as Executive Producer on the mother of all 9/11 “truth” movies, “Loose Change”.]
Correction. He IS a wanker!
[If you take them seriously though…….. :sad:]
Is he really a documentary maker if you can’t take what he makes seriously? Isn’t the whole point of a documentary that it is something that makes truth claims about the world? If you can’t take his truth claims seriously, he isn’t a documentary maker.
[the Coalition has edged in front of Labor as the party judged better able to handle climate change for the first time on record, 31 per cent to 28 per cent.]
The coalition get a 31% and the likes of rummel are crowing about it. LOL.
[Malcolm Turnbull not listed to debate carbon tax story]
How could he after the spiel on CC leadership when he was o/s a few days ago.
confessions – the shockjocks are networked, all through NSW and Qld. Their talking points are Abbotts. In my area the oldies and tradies have the radio on shockjocks all morning. Walk into any shop in my area and the radio is tuned to the networked shockjock. Other than that it is ABC local radio which rolls out the talking points as well.
It’s said that every 1 person listening tells 10 others. I can vouch for that because I hear those talking points from shockjocks every which way I turn up here.
William says they have no effect. I don’t believe that because I live with it and see it every day. I’m off to the hairdresser shortly – the radio will be on the networked shockjock. Somebody in that salon will start a conversation about what they just heard on the radio and it will go from there.
The effect is not throughout all age groups but the over 55s are a huge voting group in Coastal areas. Look at the polling figures for that age bracket. Labor needs to win some over.
Good morning all.
This is not going to be popular here, but Mumble has this to say:
The bit about the “vibe” is true in my opinion. Put another way, “perception” is everything.
Policy superiority and administrative competence counts for nought if the average punter picks up a “vibe” to the contrary. And this is what the government has so far failed to counter.
Sadly, there is a lot of truth in Mumbles second last paragraph. It will take a lot to turn this around. The turn around may have started, but it has a long way to go.
[The federal opposition will attempt to defer the government’s carbon tax by insisting voters have a say on the issue.]
[The coalition will propose an amendment that, if approved, would require the government to take its carbon tax plan to an election before it is implemented.]
The amendment will fail, as the coalition simply do not have the numbers when it comes to the CEF bills.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/10440000/coalition-attempts-to-defer-carbon-tax/
Great set of numbers for Adam Bandt 🙂
If he holds Melbourne in the next election it may be his for a while to come. Of course, if Labor actually run someone with presence it may be a real race again.
What will be interesting is how the 2PP Labor / Coalition swing dynamics will play out over time on a Green-held seat.
TA the self described “junk yard dog” whole raison d’être has been to stop the CP. What happens when the whirling dervish attack dog looks around and sees nothing to go into attack mode over ?
[miffed
Posted Tuesday, October 11, 2011 at 9:24 am | Permalink
BK
That says it all mate. Shall we put that comment up again??]
Go ahead.
The so-called offensive post is not anti-catholic. It is much more about the petty spitefulness of Ms Devine, who seems to be journalism’s answer to Mirabella.
What an absolutely mind numblng boring and pathetic speech.
The current speech is a good example of what is wrong with our parliament.
[the Coalition has edged in front of Labor as the party judged better able to handle climate change for the first time on record, 31 per cent to 28 per cent.]
Of course the real story is that 41% chose neither.
BH:
I take your point about the oldies, and it might be that you live in a spot which has a high listernership for shockjocks.
But I still think their influence is limited.
Shows,
Mr Jones is a shameless self-promoter. He has found a demographic that he can happily shower with “product”. I’ve no doubt he makes a decent living out of it as well.
[Is he really a documentary maker if you can’t take what he makes seriously? Isn’t the whole point of a documentary that it is something that makes truth claims about the world? If you can’t take his truth claims seriously, he isn’t a documentary maker.]
It obviously escaped your attention that I put the word documentary in quotation marks.
abbott presser coming up on sly, what will it be about, a weightless gas maybe, who knows.
ShowsOn
[What an absolutely mind numblng boring and pathetic speech.
The current speech is a good example of what is wrong with our parliament.]
I suspect it has not helped that they know that no matter what is said it will not change the result. So it will be all just going through the motions.
Should add to @236 that the demographic that Mr Jones markets to is only too happy to have him shower them with his “product” as well.
Have just switched on HoR to hear Richard Marles giving a sensible, reasonable speech.
[The shock jocks are professional muck rakers. They fall into a netherworld between journalism and showmanship. ]
Sorry, but that flatters them with a dignity they don’t deserve. When it comes to their political message, it is always the same, no matter which shock jock, no matter which shock jock network/station. “Liberal good, Labor bad.”
They’re professional Liberals … to a man. End of story.
If we must be subjected to these superficial and shallow marketing surveys – please try and distinguish between responses to a question and a vote… they are far from the same thing… which of course why market researchers keep getting it so terribly wrong when people are actually voting. It would also be nice if you provided a link to the methodology for these dodgy little operations so those of us who are interested can see where these “voters” are coming from, how old, what sex …that sort of trivial detail…. even better what the actual question was.
mickt
[abbott presser coming up on sly, what will it be about, a weightless gas maybe, who knows.]
Keep us posted. Ta.What could he possibly say that will be of interest or import at this stage of proceedings ? Support for the AS legislation ? It would certainly make him the center of attention the natural place for a golden child.
[The opposite is true: it is the poor standing of the government—particularly Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Treasurer Wayne Swan—that is driving perceptions on any topic people are asked about.]
I actually think this is true atm. That doesn’t mean it can’t change in the future though.
Richard Marles speaking to the bill in a clear, concise and very matter of fact manner.
[This is not going to be popular here, but Mumble has this to say:]
BTW bemused it isn’t really helpful starting off with the assumption that something will or won’t be popular here. So what if it is or isn’t? Who cares?
bemused – how depressing to read Mumble’s piece but he’s right about perceptions. There has been absolutely no fight back politically. Emmo was still on this morning about ‘good policy for the long term will win out’.
Well I reckon that good political nous combined with good policy will win out. Labor, so far, is only managing to do the latter so hopefully the PM’s new press bloke will change the political nous issue.
Do politicians need to ring journalists every day or more than once a day. Iit surprised me when Overington (Q&A last night) said that Kev used to ring her every day (or was it twice a day). What would he have to say to her unless it was at the time of the AWB issue when she actually worked like a journalist.
Gary @ 246
Just pre-empting some of the vitriol I will no doubt attract from poster who are less reasonable and rational than you.
BH
[Do politicians need to ring journalists every day or more than once a day. Iit surprised me when Overington (Q&A last night) said that Kev used to ring her every day (or was it twice a day).]
What Labor needs to do is some Journo training. Nice journo gets a juicy “scoop” naughty journo gets nothing. Being creatures of ambition I am sure the carrot and stick would work a treat with our media reptiles.
[Mr Jones is a shameless self-promoter. He has found a demographic that he can happily shower with “product”. I’ve no doubt he makes a decent living out of it as well.]
Being a fraud isn’t decent.